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Early Kentucky Derby Picks

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  • Early Kentucky Derby Picks

    I looked for a thread on this, but couldn't find one. Does anyone have any early KY Derby thoughts...who are the top 2 year olds this year who might be looking at the Derby next Spring? Which unraced 2 year olds look promising to you?

  • #2
    Just my experience but in the last few years any horse that is doing very well and making a name for himself - like DWL's Dublin or Baffert's Lookin At Lucky - won't be in the Kentucky Derby or the favorite even if he (or she) makes the field.

    Far too many early bloomers pop up now who just aren't around when the battle starts. Injury, proven to be suited to sprinting, turf runners, acquired by foreign owners who ship them overseas to train and never to come back ready for the KY Derby .... etc.

    The Las Vegas book with advanced wagering doesn't come out until the early December time frame. With the changing landscape of Derby starters - let alone winners - clearly its more risky then ever to cite any names in 2009 for the 2010 edition.
    Last edited by Glimmerglass; Oct. 29, 2009, 11:35 AM. Reason: too many typos ..


    • Original Poster

      I agree with you about the early favorites never panning out. There is future betting now (even though it is a total crapshoot), however. I am especially curious of any unraced 2 year olds that anyone knows or is going to watch closely this spring to see how they do once they start. I like to have something to root for over the winter/spring!


      • #4
        I'm keeping an eye on American Lion - nicely bred Tiznow colt who just broke his maiden at Keeneland impressively! He's heading out to California now to join Harty's barn and perhaps behind pointed to the (formerly) Hollywood Futurity.


        • #5
          Anyone see the replay of Buddy's Saint in the Grade 2 $200k Remsen Stakes on Saturday (11/28)? Looking rather convincing in making it happen. The quip from his trainer:

          Asked if he felt he had a Derby horse in his barn, Bruce Levine, trainer of Buddy's Saint, said "Yes, I do. Believe me, I wouldn't trade places with anybody in America."
          Video Replay: Aqueduct Nov 28, 2009 96th running of the Remsen Stakes @ 1 1/8 mi

          Not sure if he just had a single wow race or this is the start of something bigger but also check out Super Saver who set a stakes record at Churchill Downs the same day - Nov 28th - in the $191,250 Kentucky Jockey Club:

          Video Replay: Churchill Nov 28, 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club @ 1 1/16 mi

          Calvin Borel up on Super Saver for trainer Todd Pletcher - a very rare combo - set a stakes record by covering the distance in 1:42.83 :

          “He's a colt that's shown a lot of promise from early on, and he's starting to put things together,” Pletcher said by phone. “ … I was a little concerned that the fractions were fast, but Calvin is riding so well right now you've got to trust a guy's judgment when he's in the zone like he is.”

          Borel said the main thing Pletcher stressed was to get Super Saver to switch leads earlier.

          “We went pretty fast, and I think he's just a racehorse,” he said. “Because when I picked him up about the sixteenth pole, he re-broke.”
          Also props to last-to-second in that Kentucky Jockey Club race for William's Kitten who inhaled the field but couldn't catch the re-breaking Super Saver. Ken Ramsey who owns Williams Kitten said he'll use a rabbit next for 'Kitten':

          “Never will I send my horse to post with a lone speed without a ‘rabbit,' ” vowed his owner, Ken Ramsey, who with wife Sarah won yet another meet title. “We will have two rabbits in with William's Kitten every time he goes from now on.”


          • #6
            I second Buddy's Saint...saw the Remsen and was very impressed! He's the one I'll be watching.


            • #7
              Originally posted by event1 View Post
              I second Buddy's Saint...saw the Remsen and was very impressed! He's the one I'll be watching.
              I watched the Remsen Stakes and agree, although I also think IF Homeboykris, who faded to next-to-last in the race after fighting his jockey (Edgar Prado) & battling for the early lead, learns to rate (and to handle the turns better), he'll also be one to watch.

              The one obvious recent exception to Glimmerglass's observation that precocious 2 y.o.s rarely make the Derby - Street Sense.
              Hidden Echo Farm, Carlisle, PA -- home of JC palomino sire Canadian Kid (1990 - 2013) & AQHA sire Lark's Favorite, son of Rugged Lark.


              • #8
                Tomorrow night (Fri Dec 4th) will be that annual unique bull-ring running of the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot for 2-yr olds which will easily vault someone into being financially qualified for the Kentucky Derby. I'm hard pressed to think however of a success story with a winner from this race in the triple crown chase ....

                Brisnet 12-3-09 "Delta Jackpot Stakes; $750,000 @ 1 1/16 mi,

                The small field is expected to be dominated "gate to wire" by Pletcher trainee 'Rule' - but that's why the run the races

                PP HORSE - Jockey -Weight
                1 GALLANT GENT - DESORMEAUX K J 119
                2 UH OH BANGO - CORBETT G W 119
                3 RULE - VELAZQUEZ J R 119
                4 GRAND SLAM - SELLERS S J 119
                5 LITIGATION RISK - CASTELLANO J J 117
                6 BENCH THE JUDGE - MELANCON G 119
                7 MY TIME TO STAR - ALBARADO R J 119
                8 OAK MOTTE - SAENZ DIEGO 119


                • #9
                  American Lion

                  Super Saver


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Glimmerglass View Post
                    Brisnet 12-3-09 "Delta Jackpot Stakes; $750,000 @ 1 1/16 mi,

                    The small field is expected to be dominated "gate to wire" by Pletcher trainee 'Rule' - but that's why the run the races
                    Rule won but only by a neck over "Uh Oh Bango" although an excuse can be given for the sloppy track.

                    Video replay of the G3 Delta Jackpot Stakes

                    Rule took home a fat $450,000 in graded money for the win which will assure him of a starting gate at the Kentucky Derby.

                    WinStar Stables is on an absolute roll right now with their fleet of horses taking early graded wins: these include the aforementioned Rule in the Delta as well as Super Saver's victory in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and American Lion's score in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue.


                    • #11
                      A few more "to watch for" in 2010

                      12/09/09 "Soon-to-be 3-year-olds have plenty of potential"

                      Sidney’s Candy: Owned by Sid and Jenny Craig Trust; trained by John Sadler.

                      Middle of the Nite: Owned by West Point Thoroughbreds; trained by Tom Albertrani.

                      Moojab: Owned by Shadwell Stable; trained by Dan Peitz

                      Soldier Field: Owned by WinStar Farm; trained by Bill Mott

                      Drosselmeyer: Also, owned by WinStar Farm and trained by Mott

                      Take Turns: Owned by Pin Oak Stud; trained by Morris Nicks

                      Wow Wow Wow: Owned by Marylou Whitney Stable; trained by D. Wayne Lukas


                      • #12
                        Steve Haskin tosses in his picks for some early Derby possibles ...

                        BloodHorse 12-9-09 'Ky. Derby Trail: December Doldrums'

                        He tentatively puts forth a top 13

                        1-- Super Saver -- Talented, fast, outstanding pedigree; big score over the Churchill Downs track. Just needs to show he can rate off the pace.

                        2-- Lookin at Lucky -- His second in the BC Juvenile may have been the best performance of the year by a 2-year-old. His future is limitless.

                        3-- Buddy's Saint -- Beautiful-striding colt, push-button acceleration, bred to run all day. Needs to fill into his frame a little more.

                        4-- William's Kitten -- Spectacular move to win the off-the-turf Sunday Silence Stakes; ran big in Ky. Jockey Club and has two excellent efforts on dirt. Distance should be no problem.

                        5-- Dublin -- Champagne can be excused if he runs back to his Hopeful form.

                        6-- American Lion – He’s got the looks and the pedigree, but he still has some learning to do.

                        7-- Aikenite – Throw out the BC Juvenile; didn’t run that badly anyway on the Pro-Ride. Consistent closer, but female family will have to carry him if he hopes to get classic distances.

                        8-- Rule – He has a nice way of going and has the appearance of a class horse. He showed a lot of determination in the Delta Jackpot. Like Super Saver, it’s time to start rating off the pace.

                        9-- Vale of York – Godolphin will get another shot at developing a young horse in Dubai. Big question with him is the dirt, and he won’t get a chance to prove anything racing on Meydan’s synthetic surface.

                        10-- Piscitelli – Hasn’t gotten the credit he deserves for his huge effort in the BC Juvenile at 50-1. Despite being a stone closer in his previous starts, he set all the pace and was beaten only three-quarters of a length. Handles any kind of track and is bred to stay.

                        11-- Noble's Promise – Also ran big in the BC Juvenile after victory in the Breeders’ Futurity. Pedigree is loaded with speed on top and bottom, but tail-female line is all Darby Dan stamina, and he’ll need all of it to carry him 10 furlongs.

                        12-- Eskendereya – Still feel this is a top-class colt despite his poor performance in the BC Juvenile. Believe his Pilgrim victory on dirt is a better indicator of his ability.

                        12-- Get My Fix – Ran an excellent second in the Hollywood Prevue, but pedigree is not geared for 10 furlongs.


                        • #13
                          Another nice maiden effort which may suggest something rather promising: Video: Race 7 Fair Grounds Dec 14, 2009 - Whiskey Bravo (#5)

                          A Smart Strike colt trained by Neil Howard, Bravo Whiskey raced in midpack before moving up before the quarter pole in the six-furlong race. Once jockey Curt Bourque moved him out for the stretch run, Bravo Whiskey quickly collared the leaders, and came home strongly to win by six lengths.

                          "He had trained okay," said Howard. "I was fairly optimistic about him, not to a point that I'm saying, 'Yee ha! We're on our way. He's a lovely colt, a lovely-bred colt - a little on the small side."

                          Howard said sore shins caused him to slow down with Bravo Whiskey over the summer. The colt pretty much was ready to run near the end of the Churchill meet, but Howard decided to take a little more time.
                          - Source: DRF Dec 16, 2009


                          • #14
                            Future odds for the 2010 Derby:

                            Wynn|Encore Odds for 136th Kentucky Derby May 1, 2010 - as of 12/7/09

                            Some horses of note with (odds to win) current:
                            Aikenite: 75/1
                            American Lion: 25/1
                            Beethoven: 150/1
                            Connemara: 30/1 (who?)
                            Dublin: 60/1
                            Rule: 35/1
                            Super Saver: 50/1
                            Vale of York: 22/1
                            Beautician(F) at 225/1

                            Another odds source:
                            Lucky's Sports Book (Las Vegas) for 2010 Kentucky Derby odds - as of 12/9/0

                            Hot Dixie Chick (F) owned by Jess Jackson's wife: 100/1
                            Lentenor: 100/1
                            Lookin at Lucky: 16/1


                            • #15
                              How about Take Contol? AKA Valenzeri. Hasn't raced yet, but working nicely so far. He's been on my virtual stable after the yearling sale fiasco.


                              • #16
                                A lucky weekend for lucky names- the filly Blind Luck turned in a visually startling romp in the Starlet. Certainly an early Oaks pick- and someone is bound to start mentioning derby after that effort.

                                As an aside, I love her name- By Pollard's Vision out of Lucky One. Witty.
                                bar.ka think u al.l. susp.ect
                                free bar.ka and tidy rabbit


                                • #17
                                  and i can't count out Lentenor..ive been VERY impressed with what i've seen from him


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by Rubyfree View Post
                                    A lucky weekend for lucky names- the filly Blind Luck turned in a visually startling romp in the Starlet. Certainly an early Oaks pick- and someone is bound to start mentioning derby after that effort.

                                    As an aside, I love her name- By Pollard's Vision out of Lucky One. Witty.
                                    I just watched her win on Thoroughbred Week, wow!

                                    Also, (how's this for vague) just saw a colt finish a close second in some race, and his name had "Texas" in it, that's all I can remember, but I thought he was totally impressive!
                                    We're spending our money on horses and bourbon. The rest we're just wasting.


                                    • #19
                                      I am not impressed w/Aikenite. But three other Dogwood horses have my interest, as I broke two of them. Wildlee Special, who scratched out of the CashCall Futurity is one to watch for sure. Hell of a game horse. River Oaks, a Distorted Humor o/o Lakeway, just absolutely stunned me. Late bloomer who doesn't have all the pieces together yet, but one to watch for sure. As far as fillies go, Touching Beauty is a hell of a horse, filly or colt, but is very slighty of build and long in the pasterns. If she stays sounds, she an oaks contender for sure.
                                      Last edited by olympicdreams04; Dec. 27, 2009, 12:29 PM.
                                      "Gallop as if you were to die tomorrow, jump as if you were to live forever."


                                      • #20
                                        Found it. Big Texas Daddy.
                                        We're spending our money on horses and bourbon. The rest we're just wasting.