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2007 Triple Crown class post-Breeders' Cup

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  • 2007 Triple Crown class post-Breeders' Cup

    Thread title updated 1/12/2007 to make this the umbrella for the Derby discussions ... Nobiz Like Showbiz is still the early star as he was back in November when this started

    Nobiz Like Showbiz: 3 starts before Kentucky Derby

    Barclay Tagg has indicated that his top flight 2-yr old prospect will have three starts before the Kentucky Derby. Having won the Grade 2 Remsen alone, the colt has over $100k in graded earnings almost ensuring a slot on the first Saturday in May. Source: ESPN/DRF 11/30/06

    Tagg said that Remsen Stakes winner Nobiz Like Shobiz would likely make three starts prior to the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

    Tagg mentioned two possible scenarios that both start with the Grade 3, $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3 at Gulfstream Park. Under one scenario, Nobiz Like Shobiz could go to the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 10 and then the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7. A second scenario could include the Fountain of Youth on March 3 and then the Wood.

    Tagg said the Wood Memorial is logical because Nobiz Like Shobiz already showed a fondness for Aqueduct's main track with his 6 1/2-length Remsen score.

    "If it's horrible weather up here or they're having trouble with the track I'll just go in the Florida Derby," Tagg said.
    An interesting other item with Tagg and his other sensation, Showing Up. From the same ESPN/DRF article he won't be going back to California any time soon: (excerpts)

    Despite Showing Up's brilliant victory in Sunday's Hollywood Derby, Tagg said he did not enjoy himself out there for a couple of reasons.

    First, Tagg said that California state vet Gary Beck wanted to scratch Showing Up the morning of the race because he thought the colt was lame behind.

    "Did [Beck] think I'd take a horse for the Barbaro people to a Grade 1 in California and go to all that trouble and all that expense if I thought he had a chance of breaking a leg?" Tagg said. "Look at the position it put me in; all day long I'm thinking, what do I do? I've got to tell the [Jacksons] he's trying to scratch the horse. If I keep forcing the issue and he does let him run and he breaks a leg, then I'm a real [idiot]. It made me very uncomfortable all day long and I had complete confidence that the horse was fine."

    Beck said Showing Up took a couple of bad steps after being unsaddled, and for that reason he put the horse on the vet's list for a 10-day period. If Showing Up were to make his next start in Southern California, he would have to work five furlongs in 1:03 or faster in front of Beck or an official Southern California vet.
    Last edited by Glimmerglass; Nov. 21, 2007, 11:14 AM. Reason: 133rd Kentucky Derby, 132nd Preakness, and 139th Belmont are done: Saratoga next! BC is over and some still are running

  • #2
    Tagg needs to cut the vet some slack, it's the vet's job to watch out for stuff like that and raise flags.
    I read that he was whining over the seats at Hollywood Park too. He's one grumpy old dude.


    • Original Poster

      Originally posted by Drvmb1ggl3 View Post
      I read that he was whining over the seats at Hollywood Park too. He's one grumpy old dude.
      It wasn't too many years ago of course that he was in the Triple Crown chase and the media began to openly loath dealing with him. Perhaps that was his intent, but then again I think the public expects good trainers to be curmudgeons.

      Wasn't it the Jackson's who complained about the housekeeping condition [or lack thereof] of the viewing box assigned to them? Tagg mentioning the seating being disheveled to the media doesn't fully mean he was the one who complained to the Park management. Former L A Dodger's owner Peter O'Malley, Roy Jackson's roommate at University of Penn and a long time friend of the couple also joined them in the winners circle. So maybe he initially complained


      • Original Poster

        Speaking of 2-yr olds and the Derby, I'm looking forward to the results of tomorrow evening's $1M Delta Jackpot at 1 1/16 mi. The Grade 3 race will net $600,000 to the winner so of the limited-to-ten entrants someone will be eligible for the Kentucky Derby easily.

        Birdbirdistheword looks to be the strongest in the field coming off a Grade 1 effort (4th) and having good start otherwise; still not to be ignored will be Officer Rocket (GB) and Xchanger as each have won a G3 race just prior.

        Hopefully the 9:30 pm start time won't have anyone cranky who wanted to otherwise go to bed early


        • #5
          Originally posted by Glimmerglass
          Speaking of 2-yr olds and the Derby, I'm looking forward to the results of tomorrow evening's $1M Delta Jackpot at 1 1/16 mi. The Grade 3 race will net $600,000 to the winner so of the limited-to-ten entrants someone will be eligible for the Kentucky Derby easily.

          Birdbirdistheword looks to be the strongest in the field coming off a Grade 1 effort (4th) and having good start otherwise; still not to be ignored will be Officer Rocket (GB) and Xchanger as each have won a G3 race just prior.

          Hopefully the 9:30 pm start time won't have anyone cranky who wanted to otherwise go to bed early
          I can't believe they give a bull ring like that a Graded race.


          • Original Poster

            Originally posted by Drvmb1ggl3 View Post
            I can't believe they give a bull ring like that a Graded race.
            It is a lot of coin to be sure. Equally I'm a bit shocked it only attracted 11 entries (albeit a talented field) and they choose to accept just 10.


            • Original Poster

              Looks like we have a Debry entry ... from the $1M Delta Derby

              Second: Pirate Deputy
              Third: Xchanger

              Go Poppa Fooze: final placing was 7th
              See: DRF 12/2/06 "Birdbirdistheword takes down $1M Jackpot"

              Above info corrected per Drvmb1ggl3
              Last edited by Glimmerglass; Dec. 2, 2006, 07:07 PM. Reason: Edited Link


              • #8
                Glimmer, GPF ran down the field last night, he was 7th I believe. The DQ was for an earlier race.
                It was a suicidal ride by GPF's jock, I guess he thought he was riding in a QH race, as that's what they normally run down there. Insane first ¼ and ½ mile, then stopped like rock after ¾m.
                Takes a little getting used to to see them run 1½ times around the track just to go a little over a mile.


                • Original Poster

                  Originally posted by Drvmb1ggl3 View Post
                  Glimmer, GPF ran down the field last night, he was 7th I believe. The DQ was for an earlier race.
                  I stand corrected!

                  Go Poppa Fooze, who won the prep for the Jackpot, the $150,000 Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs on Nov. 3, was disqualified from first and placed sixth after he was found to have exceeded the permitted level of bicarbonates in his system. The track announced the disqualification on Friday.
                  The DQ was for the race on the 3rd of November


                  • Original Poster

                    Contrary to the high profile, and nose bleed high purchases of those wishing to get to Kentucky in May, try this for Birdbirdistheword:

                    A 2-year-old son of Pure Prize bred in Florida by Lucy Edwards and Randell Edwards, Birdbirdstheword was coming off a fourth-place finish in the Lane's End Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland on Oct. 7. The Delta Jackpot was the third win in five starts for the colt, who previously won the Harrah's Juvenile at Louisiana Downs. The colt was sold at the August 2005 Ocala Breeders' Sales Company sale for $32,000 and has now earned $702,100
                    Source: The Bloodhorse

                    Making a profit and punching a ticket to the first Saturday in May


                    • Original Poster

                      Bill Finley (ESPN) has his early mentions of 2007 Kentucky Derby winners and to no one's shock Nobiz Like Showbiz is among the eight cited.

                      ESPN/Bill Finley 12-7-06 "Eight winning Kentucky Derby profiles

                      It won't be Street Sense, Circular Quay, Scat Daddy or any other horse who had already hit their best stride by the first week in November.
                      His list does not cite good or bad Birdbirdistheword which could be a mistake. The eight cited are:

                      TIZ WONDERFUL
                      NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
                      ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
                      CHELOKEE (for those Barbaro folks, he's trained by MM)
                      SILVER EXPRESS
                      STRIKE A DEAL


                      • Original Poster

                        Nobiz Like Shobiz in good company

                        In recent years, horses that have finished second in the Champagne or won the Remsen have had a good track record of success as 3-year-olds. Nobiz Like Showbiz became just the sixth horse do both in his three-race 2-year-old campaign.

                        Recent Champange runner-ups who have done well in the 3-year-old classics were Afleet Alex, the 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner; Point Given, the 2001 Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers winner; and Lemon Drop Kid, the 1999 Belmont and Travers winner. Other notable Champagne runner-ups include Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Affirmed. Last year's Champagne runner-up was Henny Hughes, who became a Grade 1-winning sprinter.

                        Remsen winners Go for Gin and Thunder Gulch won the Kentucky Derby in 1994 and 1995, respectively, and last year's Remsen winner, Bluegrass Cat, finished second in the Kentucky Derby and won the Haskell before suffering a career-ending injury when he finished second in the Travers.

                        Off his emphatic victory in [the] Grade 2, $200,000 Remsen Stakes, Nobiz Like Shobiz will be at or near the top of most prognisticator's lists of 2007 Kentucky Derby prospects. Nobiz Like Shobiz won the Remsen by 6 1/2 lengths and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 97. His time of 1:48.82 was the fastest Remsen at the distance since 1977, when Believe It won in 1:47.80.
                        Source: Daily Racing Form


                        • Original Poster

                          Some further info on where Tagg looks to be pointing Nobiz ...

                          DRF 12-21-06 "Tagg's two stars point for Gulf meet"


                          "He's training normally but won't work until around New Year's since he's not going to run until Feb. 3," said Tagg. "He'll probably be a little different as a 3-year-old than a 2-year-old and I'll have to get a line on him as we go along, but the plan at the moment is to get him started in the Holy Bull, run back four weeks later in the Fountain of Youth, and then give him five weeks to the Wood. The back-up plan would be to keep him here for the Florida Derby if the weather in New York became too harsh.

                          "I just think I'd prefer to have five weeks between the Fountain of Youth and his final Derby prep and then four weeks going into the Derby than the other way around. Although if I had to change up it probably wouldn't be that big a deal."
                          So -

                          Feb 3, 2007: $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at 1 1/8 mi
                          Mar 3, 2007: $300,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at 1 1/8 mi
                          Apr 7, 2007: $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes ** (G1) at 1 1/8 mi

                          ** Alternative to Wood is ...
                          Mar 31, 2007 $1,000,000 Florida Derby (G1) at 1 1/8 mi

                          (Btw - here are the nominations for the 2007 FL Derby already)

                          an interesting aside, Vine Hill is also nominated to the Florida Derby, he is trained by Michael Matz but more importantly owned by Whitewood Stables. The family owning that Stable also owns The Chronicle Of The Horse publication among several businesses


                          • Original Poster

                            He's looking good in the New Year - it will be wonderful to see the Derby chase start up and how his likely contenders Street Sense, Tiz Wonderful, Belgravia, and Unbridled Express fair as well.

                            Nobiz Like Shobiz gets back to work
                            By Mike Welsch
                            Jan 1, 2007
                            Daily Racing Form

                            HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. -- While New Year's morning was an easy one for the majority of the horses stabled in and around south Florida this winter, such was not the case for Nobiz Like Shobiz, who celebrated his third birthday Monday at Gulfstream by working - four furlongs in 49.50 seconds under regular rider Cornelio Velasquez.

                            Nobiz Like Shobiz, who ended his 2-year-old campaign at or near the top of everybody's list of 2007 Kentucky Derby contenders, ran fractions of 12.82 seconds, 24.34, and 37.06, and galloped out an easy five furlongs in 1:03.47. The work was the first for the son of Albert the Great since his impressive 6 1/2-length triumph in Aqueduct's Grade 2 Remsen on Nov. 25.

                            "I wanted him to go in 48 and change, but it didn't really matter," trainer Barclay Tagg said after Nobiz Like Shobiz had finished cooling out back at the barn. "I just wanted to let him stretch out, and he went good. I like to have Cornelio work him when I can because he's light, he knows the horse well, and he's the one who has to be satisfied with the way he's going."

                            Tagg's first objective with Nobiz Like Shobiz this winter is the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes here on Feb. 3.

                            "I freshened him up pretty good after the Remsen, and he's put a little weight on," said Tagg. "I'm hoping to get five works into him before the Holy Bull, although we got a little bit of a late start. Since he went in 49 this morning I'll probably bring him back in five or six days. I couldn't have done that if he'd gone too fast."


                            • Original Poster

                              Worth a look back: Nov 25, 2006 'Remsen Stakes' (G2)

                              Nobiz Like Shobiz won the Remsen by 6 1/2 lengths and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 97. His time of 1:48.82 was the fastest Remsen at the distance since 1977, when Believe It won in 1:47.80.


                              • Original Poster

                                (As spied by Equidaily.com) Top 10 Contender for the Derby by Michael Veitch of the Saratogian

                                The January 2, 2007 posted excerpted list

                                1. Nobiz Like Shobiz
                                2. Street Sense
                                3. Tiz Wonderful
                                4. Circular Quay
                                5. Great Hunter
                                6. Scat Daddy
                                7. Stormello
                                8. Liquidity
                                9. Belgravia
                                10. Horse Greeley


                                • Original Poster

                                  Finally some mention of Birdbirdistheword, well down the list, after a gushing no. 1 for Nobiz Like Showbiz:

                                  XPress Bet - White's "Kentucky Derby Top 10" 1/4/07

                                  [first] Kentucky Derby Top 10 list for 2007:
                                  (1) Nobiz Like Shobiz
                                  (2) Street Sense
                                  (3) Tiz Wonderful
                                  (4) Circular Quay
                                  (5) Great Hunter
                                  (6) Any Given Saturday
                                  (7) Stormello
                                  (8) Hard Spun
                                  (9) Belgravia
                                  (10) Lawrence the Roman

                                  In alphabetical order, lurking right below my Top 10, are: Birdbirdistheword, Day Pass, E Z Warrior, Liquidity, Minefield, Out of Gweddo, Pirates Deputy, Ravel, Scat Daddy, Soaring By and Teuflesberg.


                                  • Original Poster

                                    Initial Odds on the 2007 Kentucky Derby contenders:

                                    Source: HorseHats.com with future odds

                                    Their Top 10 by lowest odds for January 3, 2007:

                                    Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
                                    Street Sense 12-1
                                    Tiz Wonderful 12-1
                                    Birdbirdistheword 18-1
                                    Circular Quay 20-1
                                    Hard Spun 20-1
                                    Scat Daddy 22-1
                                    Ravel 22-1
                                    Stormello 22-1
                                    Great Hunter 25-1


                                    • Original Poster

                                      E Z Warrior (listed at 30-1 per the early odds) a Bob Baffert trained colt looks to be in very nice form.

                                      ESPN 1/7/07 "Unbeaten E Z Warrior dominates San Miguel"

                                      Now unbeaten in three starts, E Z Warrior is certainly the quickest 3-year-old on the West Coast. But he still has yet to race beyond six furlongs, so his chances of becoming a prime Kentucky Derby prospect are still suspect.

                                      The future was on the backburner on Sunday. This was his first start since the Hollywood Juvenile Championship in July. He suffered from sore shins last summer.

                                      "I'm glad to have him back," trainer Bob Baffert said.

                                      E Z Warrior, a son of Exploit purchased by Baffert for owner Ahmed Zayat for $1.2 million at Barretts last year, is unbeaten in three starts. Curiously, he has drawn the rail every time.
                                      Nobiz Like Showbiz put in a fine workout on Sunday:

                                      If Elizabeth Valando's homebred colt needs any inspiration, the 2003 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner is now just a few stalls down the shedrow. Sackatoga Stable's 7-year-old gelding Funny Cide just arrived after a short winter vacation.


                                      • Original Poster

                                        Will we see the part Rick Pitino owned (Ol'Memorial Stable and C.E. Glasscock) colt, Buffalo Man, race aginst Nobiz in the Holy Bull Feb 3rd? Possibly. With a couple of good stakes victories it is time to take on the big players ...

                                        Buffalo Man edges field
                                        Miami Herald 1/8/07

                                        Trainer Cam Gambolati sent out Buffalo Man to take the $100,000, six-furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park. Ridden by Eddie Castro, Buffalo Man was turning back from a winning effort in the Storm Cat Stakes at the Meadowlands on Nov. 11.

                                        Castro sat just off the pace set by Voodoouthinkur before moving three wide near the top of the stretch. Buffalo Man began to draw off after the eighth pole en route to a one-length victory in a time of 1:09.60.

                                        Gambolati has been ambitious with this horse, running him in the Grade 3 Sapling at Monmouth (N.Y.), where he finished third and the Grade 1 Champaign at Belmont (N.Y.), where he ran a disappointing eighth.

                                        Gambolati said: ``He showed promise before he ever started. In the Sapling, he had the one post and got trapped down inside and behind a wall of horses and still got beat less than a length for it all. The Champagne was my fault. I asked [Javier] Castellano to try and rate him, and he got in all kinds of trouble -- bounced around like a pinball and stepped on three times.

                                        The options are now the Holy Bull [on Feb. 3] or the Ocala race a week later [Feb. 12]. We'll talk it over, but after the way he ran today, I guess it's time to try the big boys.''