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2013 Kentucky Derby 139th Edition: congrats to Orb (Shug, Joel, Phipps/Janney)

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  • I was very, very impressed with Revolutionary, and I'm also pretty shocked they're going to make a go of getting in the Derby gate with one more prep. He's definitely talented and gutsy, but even aside from the asinine points situation, he's almost certainly going to need more seasoning to handle that massive field.
    bar.ka think u al.l. susp.ect
    free bar.ka and tidy rabbit


    • Originally posted by Rubyfree View Post
      I was very, very impressed with Revolutionary, and I'm also pretty shocked they're going to make a go of getting in the Derby gate with one more prep. He's definitely talented and gutsy, but even aside from the asinine points situation, he's almost certainly going to need more seasoning to handle that massive field.
      I'd say he needs it significantly less than most, other than getting out of the gate cleanly and quickly.


      • Well, he got a hell of a lot in that race, that's for sure!
        bar.ka think u al.l. susp.ect
        free bar.ka and tidy rabbit


        • Loved how his ears were flicking after the finish - but not like - "oh, I'm having fun", but rather "eat my dust, fellas!" He seemed very, very competitive.
          But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all. H.C.Anderson


          • Original Poster

            The current (2/5/13) points standing for the Road to the Derby -

            45 horses have at least 1-point. The leaders, each with 25, are Goldencents and Shanghai Bobby. Oxbow is next with 11-points and all others with 10-points or less.


            • Original Poster

              For the data junkies there is free offering ... Pdf - past performances and Brisnet ratings for all 2013 TC nominations

              It's a fatty file with 102-pages of detail.


              • Original Poster

                Pool 1 of the 2013 Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens this FRI (Feb 8th) at Noon (Eastern) and closes SUN (Feb 10th) at 6pm EST.

                Just one gelding, Vyjack, is among the 23 named interests. There are no fillies. The futures are nonrefundable win and exacta wagers with $2 minimums, including $1 part-wheels or boxes. The takeout is 16 percent. As with any pari-mutuel wager, odds will change throughout the weekend, with final odds established at closing time.

                Real time odds will be available at kentuckyderby.com

                The opening odds and the named horses in alpha order "all others/field" is always #24. It appears that 12-1 is the lowest opening odds (for a named horses, the 'all others' is lowest) and shared by Shanghai Bobby & Violence, both trained by Todd Pletcher.

                #. Horse. M/L odds
                1. Capo Bastone, 30-1
                2. Code West, 50-1
                3. Delhomme, 30-1
                4. Den’s Legacy, 30-1
                5. Dynamic Sky, 30-1
                6. Falling Sky, 30-1
                7. Flashback, 15-1
                8. Frac Daddy, 50-1
                9. Goldencents, 20-1
                10. He’s Had Enough, 50-1
                11. Itsmyluckyday, 15-1
                12. Mylute, 30-1
                13. Normandy Invasion, 20-1
                14. Overanalyze, 15-1
                15. Oxbow, 20-1
                16. Revolutionary, 20-1
                17. Shanghai Bobby, 12-1
                18. Super Ninety Nine, 20-1
                19. Uncaptured, 20-1
                20. Verrazano, 15-1
                21. Violence, 12-1
                22. Vyjack, 20-1
                23. Will Take Charge, 30-1
                24. Field (all others), 9-5


                • Original Poster

                  Feb 7, 2013 - Coolmore (Tabor / Smith /Magnier) has bought a significant interest in Verrazano. They already took such a stake in another promising 2013 Triple Crown runner, Shanghai Bobby, last year.


                  • Original Poster

                    Final payoff odds for the 1st (of three) Derby Future Pools with Churchill Downs (2/10/13)

                    Second highest futures pool, fandle was $481,632 in the win pool and $139,861 in the exacta pool.

                    Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1
                    (No., Horse, Final Odds, $2 will-pay)
                    1. Capo Bastone, 58-1, $118
                    2. Code West, 56-1, $114
                    3. Delhomme, 55-1, $113.20
                    4. Den’s Legacy, 77-1, $156.60
                    5. Dynamic Sky, 54-1, $110
                    6. Falling Sky, 114-1, $230.80
                    7. Flashback , 12-1, $26.40
                    8. Frac Daddy, 68-1, $139
                    9. Goldencents, 20-1, $43.40
                    10. He’s Had Enough, 50-1, $102.60
                    11. Itsmyluckyday, 13-1, $28.80
                    12. Mylute, 123-1, $249.20
                    13. Normandy Invasion, 15-1, $33
                    14. Overanalyze, 33-1, $69.20
                    15. Oxbow, 26-1, $54.80
                    16. Revolutionary, 13-1, $29
                    17. Shanghai Bobby, 14-1, $31.40
                    18. Super Ninety Nine, 47-1, $97.20
                    19. Uncaptured, 40-1, $82.40
                    20. Verrazano, 11-1, $24
                    21. Violence, 13-1, $28.60
                    22. Vyjack, 49-1, $100.60
                    23. Will Take Charge, 61-1, $124.20
                    24. Field (all others), 8-5, $5.20


                    • Original Poster

                      For those without TVG or HRTV and asking when will NBC provide any Road to the Derby races - here you go! NBCUniversal Media - Feb 2013: "2013 "ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY" TELEVISION SCHEDULE"

                      .. will provide live coverage of six major prep races for the 2013 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, as well as a 30-minute special previewing the Triple Crown season during the last two Saturdays in March and the first two Saturdays in April
                      Saturday, March 23, 2013, 6 – 6:30 p.m. (NBC Sports Network)
                      Road to the Kentucky Derby preview show

                      Saturday, March 30, 2013, 6 – 7 p.m. (NBC Sports Network)
                      > Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park) and Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots)

                      Saturday, April 6, 2013, 6 – 7:30 p.m. (NBC Sports Network)
                      > Wood Memorial (Aqueduct Racetrack) and Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita Park)

                      Saturday, April 13, 2013, 4:30 – 6 p.m. (NBC)
                      > Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Keeneland)

                      Saturday, April 13, 2013, 6 – 7 p.m. (NBC Sports Network)
                      > Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park)


                      • Original Poster

                        Assorted Derby trail decisions ...

                        Verrazano is to make his stakes and two-turn debuts in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. Verrazano was the shortest-priced individual entry in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager @ 11-1

                        Delhomme will go to the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 16 for his first start of the year.

                        Also shipping to Arkansas, but sooner, is Baffert trained Super Ninety Nine. He's is scheduled to ship to Arkansas for Monday’s (Feb 18) Grade 3, $300,000 Southwest.

                        The Southwest was run over a mile last year, but this year it has been lengthened to 1 1/16 miles. The race is worth 10 points to the winner on the new system governing Kentucky Derby.

                        Also expected in the Southwest: Always in a Tiz (with Robby Albarado up), Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, and Brown Almighty.


                        • Original Poster

                          A look back at how lightly raced most recent Kentucky Derby winners have been run after January 1st:

                          * Fusaichi Pegasus: Raced just once at 2; did not break his maiden until Jan. 2, then won an allowance, San Felipe and Wood Memorial.

                          * Monarchos: Raced twice at 2; did not break his maiden until Jan. 13, then won allowance and Florida Derby, was second in the Wood.

                          * War Emblem: Was 2-for-3, no stakes wins at 2; at 3, ran four times before the Derby, winning an allowance and the Illinois Derby.

                          * Funny Cide: Went 3-for-3 at 2, including a pair of NY-bred stakes; prepped for Derby with fifth in Holy Bull, seconds in Louisiana Derby and Wood.

                          * Smarty Jones: 2-for-2 at 2, including PA-bred stakes; at 3, won Count Fleet, Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby.

                          * Giacomo: Ran four times at 2, including second in the Hollywood Futurity; prepped for Derby with third in Sham, second in San Felipe, fourth in Santa Anita Derby.

                          * Barbaro: 2-for-2 at 2 including Laurel Futurity; won Tropical Park Derby, Holy Bull and Florida Derby preps.

                          * Street Sense: The only 2-year-old champion to win the Derby since Spectacular Bid ran five times at 2; prepped for Derby with win in the Tampa Bay Derby and second in Blue Grass.

                          * Big Brown: Won his only start at 2, then had just two more starts before the Derby, winning an allowance and the Florida Derby.

                          * Mine That Bird: Champion 2-year-old colt in Canada; prepped for Derby with second in Borderland Derby and fourth in Sunland Derby.

                          * Super Saver: Was 2-for-4 at 2 including win in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes; at 3, was third in Tampa Bay Derby and second in Arkansas Derby.

                          * Animal Kingdom: Went 1-for-2 at 2; was second in allowance and won Spiral before Derby.

                          * I’ll Have Another: Was 1-for-3 at 2 with second in Best Pal; at 3, won R.B. Lewis and Santa Anita Derby.


                          • Original Poster

                            A field of 9 runners to contest at Golden Gate Fields Saturday (Feb 16) for the 10-4-2-1 points available towards the Derby.

                            Race 8: $200k El Camino Real Derby (Grade3)

                            All carrying 121-lbs. The Bode Miller/Jill Baffert entry of Carving will break from the 8 hole.

                            Always a good race with Michael Wrona on the mic calling it!


                            • Original Poster

                              Still a couple hours out from the El Camino Real Derby, but the other Road to the Derby points-awarding (10-4-2-1) race is set for Monday at Oaklawn. This should be a very interesting race!

                              $300,000 Southwest Stakes (G3)
                              Race 9, 5:09 p.m. CST @ 3YOs, 1 1/16 miles (dirt)

                              PP, Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
                              1. Officer Alex (PA), L.S. Quinonez, 117, L S Whiting
                              2. Brown Almighty (KY), T.J. Thompson, 117, T A Ice
                              3. Will Take Charge (KY), J.K. Court, 122, D W Lukas
                              4. Texas Bling (TX), M.C. Berry, 119, D Durham
                              5. Always in a Tiz (KY), P. Lopez, 115, D A Schettino
                              6. Super Ninety Nine (KY), R. Bejarano, 117, B Baffert
                              7. Fear the Kitten (IL), R. Napravnik, 117, M J Maker
                              8. Heaven's Runway (KY), J. Loveberry, 117, J R Martin
                              9. Channel Isle (KY), I. Ocampo, 117, D W Lukas
                              10. Big Lute (MD), R. Albarado, 115, S Hobby

                              note Heaven's Runway will be Blinkers Off


                              • Original Poster

                                Video replay: 32nd edition of the G3 Grade 3, $200,000 El Camino Real Derby on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields

                                For the upset effort, Dice Flavor, took 10-Derby points in the strong victory. 3 3/4th lengths back it was Nina's Dragon at 13-1 second, three-quarters of a length in front of 25-1 Counting Days.

                                Dice Flavor - a turf runner in his four prior races - the Feb 8th Wynn|Encore Vegas odds book had him omitted.

                                Add to that Dice Flavor is not a current Triple Crown nominated horse. The second TC nomination closing is March 23, 2013 for $6,000.


                                • Hi guys. New around these parts, but I'll be watching via twinspires at work today. I'm very excited to see the overflow field for the Risen Star this weekend. We don't usually get to see the super nice ones til Louisiana Derby.


                                  • Original Poster

                                    Today's Southwest Stakes (G3) - video replay here was in the slop an absolute runaway by the favorite ... runaway .. Baffert trainee Super Ninety Nine splashing away with a 11 1/4-length victory over Rosie Napravnik up aboard Fear the Kitten. It was another 2 1/4 lengths back to Heaven's Runway.

                                    Next weekend - kicking off the big, fatty Derby points to be awarded - is seeing large fields for the two prep races.

                                    SAT Feb. 23 $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) @ Gulfstream Park. 50 points going to the winner, 20 to second, 10 to third, and five for fourth. The field how they line up ...

                                    PP, Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
                                    1. Orb (KY), J.R. Velazquez, 116, C R McGaughey III
                                    2. Joshua's Comprise (FL), E.S. Prado, 116, B R Rose
                                    3. Violence (KY), J. Castellano, 122, T A Pletcher
                                    4. Majestic Hussar (KY), L. Saez, 116, E Kenneally
                                    5. Elmutahid (KY), J. Bravo, 116, K P McLaughlin
                                    6. Cerro (IRE), J. Rocco, Jr., 116, H G Motion
                                    7. Sky Captain (KY), P. Husbands, 116, M E Casse
                                    8. Speak Logistics (FL), J. Rosario, 116, E Plesa, Jr.
                                    9. He's Had Enough (KY), M. Gutierrez, 116, D F O'Neill
                                    10. Falling Sky (PA), J.L. Espinoza, 120, J P Terranova II
                                    11. Sr. Quisqueyano (FL), C. Olivero, 118, L Olivares
                                    Also on Saturday Feb. 23 from the Fair Grounds in Louisiana is Risen Star Stakes with an overflow field of 15. Only 14 can run and Sunbean is the lone also-eligible who will draw in should a scratch occur. Like the Fountain of Youth the Risen Star will offer points of 50-20-10-5.

                                    $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) @1 1/16 miles
                                    PP, Horse, Jockey, Trainer (All carry 116 pounds)
                                    1. Proud Strike (VA), G L Stevens, S Asmussen
                                    2. Code West (VA), M Garcia, B Baffert
                                    3. Agent (OK), R E Eramia, J McAnally
                                    4. Golden Soul (KY), M Mena, D Stewart
                                    5. Mylute (KY), S Bridgmohan, T M Ammoss
                                    6. Palace Malice (KY), R Napravnik, T A Pletcher
                                    7. Hardrock Eleven (FL), J Theriot, D P Banks
                                    8. Ive Struck a Nerve (KY), J Graham, J K Desormeaux
                                    9. Normandy Invasion (KY), J Lezcano, C C Brown
                                    10. Oxbow (KY), J K Court, D W Lukas
                                    11. Bethel, I V Diego, G Dorochenko
                                    12. He's Had Enough (KY), M Gutierrex, D F O'Neill
                                    13. Circle Unbroken (FL), L R Goncalves, G W Simms
                                    14. Departing (KY), B J Hernandez, A M Stall Jr.
                                    ------ also eligible
                                    15. (AE) Sunbean (LA), C J Hernandez, A M Stall Jr.


                                    • He's had enough to Florida, but who knows if sunbean goes risen star from post 14 or in the state bred gentilly.


                                      • Original Poster

                                        Off the trail: Brown Almighty .. he'll be a turf guy henceforth

                                        Lackluster effort in the Southwest Stakes was Always in a Tizz - well it appears your man has a lung infection .. but [he'll] "still shoot for the Rebel". Good luck with that.

                                        Texas Bling is also aimed to return in the Rebel as his connections (and I concur) feel that the Southwest's off track condition didn't afford him a chance to show what he can do.

                                        Almost guaranteed to scratch from the Fountain of Youth: Sky Captain, who is out of his league with the lineup. Per his connections "Turfway’s Battaglia or the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct" will be their next race. Up against Violence everyone else could be running for 2nd at best.


                                        • Original Poster

                                          Among the jocks in tomorrow's Risen Star will be Gary Stevens on Proud Strike for Steve Asmussen. This will be Gary's first return since 2005 when he won the race aboard Scipion.

                                          It will be a busy day for Gary as he's picked up several mounts on the Fair Grounds card - Midnight Ballet for Tom Proctor in the G3 Rachel Alexandra Stakes and Hyper for Chad Brown in the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap.

                                          Tom Amoss, who will enter Mylute in the Risen Star, said he’s definitely a horse to watch. Shaun Bridgmohan has the mount in lieu of Rosie (who won aboard him last out) as she's on Pletcher's Palace Malice, previously ridden by Javier Castellano. Javiar is in FL to ride at the same time Violence

                                          Free past performances for these two Road to the Derby races:

                                          Risen Star @ Fair Grounds FEB 23: PPs

                                          Fountain of Youth @ Gulfstream FEB 23: PPs

                                          Both races will be aired on HRTV live; each race will award 50 Derby points to the winner, 20 for second, 10 for third and 5 for the fourth-place finisher.