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2013 Kentucky Derby 139th Edition: congrats to Orb (Shug, Joel, Phipps/Janney)

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  • Original Poster

    Originally posted by Glimmerglass View Post
    Flying Bird, by the way, finished 8th in the Kitten's Joy .. a race won by a horse sired by Kitten's Joy.
    As a result of the sub-par effort (due to flipping his palate) the Marylou Whitney owned runner had 'minor' throat surgery to correct it. The surgery will likely keep him out of training for several weeks and with that could be off the Derby trail.


    • Original Poster

      Video: 26th Running of the Grade 3 Holy Bull - with a track record set.

      Sometimes a name pays out Itsmyluckyday

      Itsmyluckyday completed a mile and one-sixteenth in 1:41.81 - slashing .54 seconds off the old mark set by Endorsement one year earlier - en route to his two-length victory over Shanghai Bobby. It was another 11 1/2 lengths further back to the tiring Clearly Now in third.
      As Todd Pletcher said: “We got a good trip and didn’t expect to have to break the track record by three-fifths of a second in order to win.”


      • I'm thrilled to see this colt get some notable accolades under his girth. Lawyer Ron left too soon. Fingers crossed for the long road ahead, but it'd be wonderful to see his do well the first saturday in May.
        bar.ka think u al.l. susp.ect
        free bar.ka and tidy rabbit


        • I had high hopes for Frac Daddy; he was impressive at Churchill, and he's a nice big good-looking horse out of a Skip Away mare. But, not surprised that he ran a bit green, and appeared to loose his cookies in the post parade and at the gate. He was a bit quirky as a yearling with a high flight instinct. He got loose a couple times while walking in the paddock prepping for sales. Nice horse, though, hopefully McPeek turns him around. From his twitter, the horse grabbed his quarter pretty bad in the race, and he'll get blinkers next time out.

          https://twitter.com/KennyMcPeek/stat...15074816565249 Photo of heel injury.
          “A clever person solves a problem. A wise person avoids it.”
          ? Albert Einstein



          • Original Poster

            Originally posted by EventerAJ View Post
            I had high hopes for Frac Daddy.. From his twitter, the horse grabbed his quarter pretty bad in the race, and he'll get blinkers next time out. Photo of heel injury.
            Likewise I expected much more but an injury as ugly as that has to take a horse's focus out of the game. Poor guy hopefully it will heal and with it some valuable lesson's learned for the next time out. Thanks for sharing that link!


            • Original Poster

              Originally posted by Glimmerglass View Post
              As Todd Pletcher said: “We got a good trip and didn’t expect to have to break the track record by three-fifths of a second in order to win.”
              Just to be clear Pletcher was speaking of Shanghai Bobby. And no shame in the loss as Bobby ran career best (by 6 pts) 100 Beyer. For the winner Itsmyluckyday received a 104 Beyer.


              • Original Poster

                Both Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby will point to the Florida Derby (G1) next - which is held March 30 and awards fatty Derby points.

                Dale Romans said that despite the grabbing of a quarter for Frac Daddy he's still on the Derby trail:

                “We had to cut off a piece a little bigger than a quarter, it was pretty nasty,” McPeek said. “He was leaving a puddle of blood all the way around the barn that evening. He’ll be standing in a foot tub for a while and probably miss a week’s training. I don’t know that the configuration of this racetrack, with the short run to the first turn, is a good deal for him. I think he’d prefer a long stretch like the Fair Grounds, and I’d probably thinking about going that way if it’s the way things unfold.”
                And if you recall the talk of multiple Gold Medal winner Michael Phelps wanting to get into racing it's come true ... he bought into Team Valor which owns 3-yr old Cerro who won a 1 1/8 mile undercard race of Saturday’s Holy Bull undercard. The victory gave him a very solid 90 Beyer Speed Figure and the Graham Motion trained runner is likely next going to run in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes on March 3. Not sure if he'd be considered on the Derby trail with no points in his immediate future.

                Olympic gold medal champion swimmer Michael Phelps and his longtime coach, Bob Bowman, bought into the Team Valor partnership that races Cerro following the colt’s 3-year-old debut here on Jan. 1.


                • Original Poster

                  With just 22 Derby point awarding races (albeit many with powerball sized awards for hitting the board) left before the 1st Saturday in May a list such as this might be dated. Still it's a neat list to check out - -

                  Courier-Journal Jan 26, 2013: Jennie Rees' 115 3-year-olds to watch on the march to Kentucky Derby 2013


                  • Original Poster

                    Latest Vegas Odds (Wynn|Encore) as of JAN 28, 2013 for the Derby

                    Itsmyluckyday now at 20-1 down from 100-1

                    This past weekend saw a solid win by Orb, a homebred for Stuart S. Janney III and the Phipps Stable and is trained by Shug McGaughey, he's now at 75-1.

                    Oxbow, the Lukas trainee, is at 65-1

                    The continued favorite by his low odds remains Violence at 12-1


                    • Original Poster

                      As was rumored around the end of last year, Hawthorne Race Course has decided to significantly boost the Illinois Derby (G3) from a purse of $500k to $750k despite still having no KY Derby points. The April 20th run race (moved back) is somewhat aimed at enticing top tier horses they likely won't be Derby bound but are apt to be Preakness or Belmont contenders.

                      That purse is the result of some finally freed up slots money although Illinois now lacks Advanced Deposit Wagering (ADW) which makes it illegal for TVG, et al to allow for customers with money held in accounts to be wagered on any Illinois track. That became effective Jan 1 when the Illinois Legislature failed to renew the provision. Such brilliant folks in Springfield.

                      An interesting list worth perusing is Gary West's annual long view of Derby contenders (1/30/13) - with a twist ... this year he's got Ky. Derby contenders that he ranks #21-100.

                      A few samples from Gary West ...
                      37. Orb
                      39. Purple Egg
                      53. Fortify
                      68. Whiskey Romeo
                      70. Brown Almighty
                      76. Carving
                      84. Texas Bling
                      93. Eton Blue
                      100. Bridge Jumper


                      • Original Poster

                        This weekend there are a few races on Saturday Feb 2nd which have Derby point's [10-4-2-1] to awarded

                        $200k Withers Stakes (Grade 3) @ Aqueduct
                        PP, Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
                        1. Long River (KY), I. Ortiz Jr., 116, K P McLaughlin
                        2. Valid (VA), J. Alvarado, 116, K P McLaughlin
                        3. Revolutionary (KY), J. Castellano, 116, T A Pletcher
                        4. Escapefromreality (NY), J.L. Ortiz, 116, D A Schettino
                        5. Amerigo Vespucci (KY), E.D. Rodriguez, 116, T J Tullock Jr.
                        6. Siete de Oros (PA), M. Remedio, 118, R Preciado
                        7. Champion Boy (KY), E. Castro, 116, J C Guerrero
                        8. Smooth Bert (NY), M.J. Luzzi, 118, L Gyarmati
                        Also on Saturday another Derby points awarding race ...

                        $250k Sam F. Davis Stakes (Grade 3) @ Tampa Bay Downs
                        PP, Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer

                        1. Silver Day (FLA), M. Pedroza, 116, William Kaplan
                        2. Divine Ambition (KY), W. Martinez, 116, Darrin Miller
                        3. Name Is Michael (KY), J. Rosario, 116, Bill Mott
                        4. Speak Logistics (FLA), A. Serpa, 120, Eddie Plesa Jr.
                        5. Lightning Stone (NY), D. Coa, 115, William Allyn
                        6. Northern Lion (FLA), P. Husbands, 116, M E Casse
                        7. Balino (FLA), H. Goodwin, 116, Bernell Rhone
                        8. Falling Sky (FLA), L. Saez, 116, John Terranova
                        9. Dynamic Sky (ONT), L. Contereras, 116, Mark Casse
                        10. Midnite Poppa (KY), J. Lezcano, 116, Nick Zito
                        And a race that shouldn't have Derby points given to all simply for showing up - but here we have it .. .. a Grade 2 race with 4 horses running?

                        $200k Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Grade 2) @ Santa Anita
                        PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer

                        1. Little Jerry (KY), T Baze, 118, R Baltas
                        2. Flashback (KY), J R Leparoux, 118, B Baffert
                        3. Den's Legacy (FL), G K Gomez, 120, B Baffert
                        4. He's Had Enough (KY), M Gutierrez, 118, D F O'Neill
                        The following is NOT a Derby Points race (oddly) but a long standing important Derby Prep race ...
                        $150k Hutcheson Stakes (Grade 3) @ Gulfstream Park
                        PP, Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer

                        1. Forty Tales (KY), J.R. Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher
                        2. Falling Sky (PA), L. Saez, 116, J P Terranova, II
                        3. Weekend Hideaway (NY), J. Bravo, 120, P M Serpe
                        4. Little Distorted (KY), J.L. Castanon, 116, D Miller
                        5. Merit Man (FL), P. Lopez, 120, R B Hess, Jr.
                        6. Singanothersong (KY), J.Z. Santana, 116, R Pellegrini
                        7. Undrafted (KY), A. Serpa, 116, W A Ward
                        8. Honorable Dillon (KY), J. Rocco, Jr., 116, E Kenneally
                        9. Pataky Kid (OK), C.J. Lanerie, 120, T F Proctor
                        10. Really Sharp (KY), E. Trujillo, 116, I Black


                        • Original Poster

                          Wow wow wow! with the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct for two efforts - first the winner Revolutionary who showed he had guts and power to wait then thread the needle. Impressive.

                          Second is the absolute shoveling of dirt, deep, by the 1A runner Valid at the start. I've seen horses stumble and almost touch this guy dug into the dirt with his nose. Amazing they continued to finish.

                          Revolutionary (who was the wagering favorite) is clearly a horse to be impressed with going forward. His mere 10-points for this victory might be paltry but it was hard earned.


                          • Revolutionary was impressive as was Flashback, but I fell in love with AOC winner Verazanno today, WOW. The Tiznow winner in the first at SA today showed some talent as well. I'm starting to get Derby fever


                            • Original Poster

                              Video- Race replay - Grade 3 Withers Stakes @ Aqueduct FEB 2, 2013

                              I'm a bit perplexed (with the new Derby structure) that WinStar - Revolutionary owner - is rolling the dice on just one more race. With only 10 banked points a stumble or unexpected finished means getting almost certainly shutout from the KY Derby. 50 points min is likely the minimum.

                              Elliot Walden [CEO of WinStar] said that Revolutionary will likely head to trainer Todd Pletcher’s south Florida stable later this week and have one more race - presumably in late March or in April - to try to get into the Kentucky Derby. One possibility could be the Arkansas Derby, a race WinStar used for Super Saver before he won the 2010 Kentucky Derby.


                              • Original Poster

                                Video - race replay - Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes: Tampa Bay, FEB 2, 2013


                                • Original Poster

                                  Originally posted by jennywho View Post
                                  ... but I fell in love with AOC winner Verazanno today, WOW.
                                  Indeed it was a blowout by Verrazano sadly over the hopeful Marylou Whitney owned Eton Blue (Zito trained) taking a distant 2nd. Video replay 2/2/13 Gulfstream Park - Race 5 - $54,500 @ 1-mile

                                  “That was about as impressive as you’ll see one run,” said Pletcher. “We were anticipating a good race, hoping for a good race, were encouraged going into the race and even more so coming out.”


                                  • Original Poster

                                    Julien Leparoux did well with the untaxed - and a rather yawn inducing race with four runners (come on!) - effort by Flashback in his 2nd start (video post race)

                                    Video - race replay - Grade 2 Robert Lewis @ Santa Anita 2/2/13

                                    Flashback is likely to race twice more here this meet, including in the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 6.


                                    • Revolutionary got an 86 bsf Verazanno an eye popping 105. I had a hard time getting excited about flashback just because it was only a 4 horse field, how pathetic. H may indeed be a very nice horse, Baffert seems to think so. Hopefully he faces more than 3 in the SA derby. I loved Baffert's comment regarding Tiz the Truth, something to the effect of Gary Stevens having bugs in his teeth from smiling so big when he was flying down the lane.


                                      • Original Poster

                                        Early 2013 Triple Crown Nominations (sortable) - 369 horses.

                                        The 369 early nominations is a decline from last year’s 397, though a slight uptick from the 366 who were nominated at this stage in 2011. This marks the fourth time since 2001 – and the third time in the last four years - that the early nominations failed to reach 400, a reflection of smaller foal crops of recent years.

                                        All of the horses announced as nominees on Saturday were made eligible for a $600 payment that was due one week earlier. Horses can still be nominated, but for $6,000, at a second deadline on March 23.


                                        • Original Poster

                                          Worth looking back ... Saratoga maiden starts for Revolutionary, Clawback and Always In A Tiz. The chart from that race debut.

                                          Video replay: Saratoga Race 6, 09-30-2012