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2013 Kentucky Derby 139th Edition: congrats to Orb (Shug, Joel, Phipps/Janney)

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  • Original Poster

    Saturday (Nov 17) will be the Delta Downs Jackpot which will dish out 10-4-2-1 points, respectively, towards the Derby 'Prep Season' tally.

    Race 7: entries - $1M Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (Gr. 3) off at 4:15 pm local time.

    It will be aired live on TVG/HRTV/and streamed live for free on DRF.com

    Goldencents was installed as the morning line favorite. Although also in the race for the first time is the Breeders' Cup JV winner ... Hightail.


    • #82
      Originally posted by Glimmerglass View Post
      Saturday (Nov 17) will be the Delta Downs Jackpot which will dish out 10-4-2-1 points, respectively, towards the Derby 'Prep Season' tally.

      Race 7: entries - $1M Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (Gr. 3) off at 4:15 pm local time.

      It will be aired live on TVG/HRTV/and streamed live for free on DRF.com

      Goldencents was installed as the morning line favorite. Although also in the race for the first time is the Breeders' Cup JV winner ... Hightail.
      BC juvie SPRINT winner

      Always appreciate your updates, Glimmer. Thanks for keeping the racing board talking about racing!
      bar.ka think u al.l. susp.ect
      free bar.ka and tidy rabbit


      • Original Poster

        Originally posted by Rubyfree View Post
        BC juvie SPRINT winner
        Indeed that was a big omission with Hightail's victory and maiden one at that

        They've retained Raj for the mount but with him not as the ML favorite, his ability to go the distance for victory is questionable.


        • Original Poster

          Video replay - Goldencents takes it gate to wire in the $1M Grade 3 Delta Jackpot.

          He also earned a $600,000 share of the purse and climbed to second on the list for the 2013 Kentucky Derby with 14 points after earning 10 for the win under the new "Road to the Kentucky Derby" qualifying system.

          Goldencents already had four points for an Oct. 6 runner-up effort behind eventual Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby in the Foxwoods Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.
          I'll give props - and maybe more of a nod as well - to the runner up Bern Identity who was stuck in traffic and when found running room exploded. Nice turn of foot there!

          Looks like both have the ability to easily run the 1 1/4-mi distance ...


          • Original Poster

            This Saturday (Nov 24) at Aqueduct is the 98th running of the $250,000 Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 Miles. It's worth the 10-4-2-1 Derby points, respectively, for the first four finishers.

            Look for Violence to be a highly worthy contender. Last seen Nov 4th taking the $200k Nashua Stakes (Grade 2) at 1-mile [which was snubbed with having no Derby points] in a tough victory.

            Somebody - with money - really likes him and not just his owner, Black Rock Stables, who picked him up as a $600,000 purchase price at the Keeneland September yearling sale. Rather the latest Vegas Derby futures (Nov 11) show a lot of action and faith in him. He's at 20-1 which is just a peg above Shanghai Bobby at 18-1

            Flashback to Violence's maiden at Saratoga 8/18/12

            Violence's second start - Nashua Stakes - video 11/04/12


            • Original Poster

              Interesting - Violence isn't being cited now as a likely Remsen entry.

              Per the DRF 11/20/12 it will be a big field of runners:Repole owned Micromanage and Overanalyze are expected. As is another Pletcher trainee Delhomme. Then others expected Frac Daddy, Indy’s Illusion, Irsaal, Keep the Canoli, Normandy Invasion, Quinzieme Monarque, and Stormy Len.


              • #87
                He may not have won, but that was some run by Normandy Invasion in the Remsen!
                But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all. H.C.Anderson


                • Original Poster

                  This past weekend's Road to the Kentucky Derby races with associated points:

                  Video: Grade 2 Remsen Stakes Nov 24, 2012 - Repole Stables with Ramon up eeks out the win with Overanalyze. Rick Porter's (Fox Hill Farm) Normandy Invasion took a hard fought second.

                  Overanalyze earned 10 points while Normandy Invasion earned four points. Delhomme earned two and Quinzieme Monarque (smoked some 16 3/4 length back) earned one.
                  Video: 86th Edition (G2 $177,150) Kentucky Jockey Club with an iron horse (relative to the modern era) Uncaptured taking the win. Why an iron horse? This was his 7th start and yielded his 6th victory - 2 of which are graded stakes.

                  The Ontario-bred colt has largely been running on the synthetic surface of Woodbine. He looks to be a very credible Canadian runner for the Kentucky Derby provided he remains healthy - as do they all.

                  Uncaptured earned 10 points while Frac Daddy earned four points. Dewey Square earned two and Tesseron earned one.
                  Shanghai Bobby will make his 2013 debut in the Grade 3, $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 26


                  • Original Poster

                    Always interesting to see one of the Top Ten lists this early ... Bill Finley's Top 12 List as of 11/26/12 - abridged

                    Picking the Derby 5 1/2 minutes before post time is often an exercise in futility, so trying to figure out the outcome 5 1/2 months out is sheer insanity. Nonetheless, here goes:

                    1. Normandy Invasion: Chad Brown is more than the flavor of the month. He has emerged this year as one of the sport's most talented trainers. The one thing he has yet to do is campaign a serious Kentucky Derby contender, but that should change next year thanks to Normandy Invasion.

                    2. He's Had Enough: The team of Doug O'Neill, J. Paul Reddam and Mario Guiterriez will try to do it again after the 2012 win with I'll Have Another.

                    3. Bern Identity: Another who may have lost a big race because of a troubled trip.

                    4. Shanghai Bobby: He's No. 1 this year, but what will he be in 2013?

                    5. Power Broker: Like all of Baffert's horses, he simply didn't show up in the Breeders' Cup. But there's every reason to believe he'll run back to his explosive win in the Grade 1 Frontrunner.

                    6. Overanalyze: He seems to run well every other race and when he shows up he's good.

                    7. Goldencents: Doug O'Neill … Delta Jackpot win … second in the Champagne … what's not to like?

                    8. Beholder (f): Trainer Richard Mandella is old school and not likely to take chances, which means Beholder is likely Oaks, and not Derby, bound.

                    9. Uncaptured: The winner of Saturday's Kentucky Jockey Club, he is 2-for-2 on the dirt and 2-for-2 at Churchill.

                    10. Frac Daddy: Almost as good as Uncaptured. In the Ken McPeek barn, he's in good hands.

                    11. Little Distorted: Has run only once, and at that in a six-furlong maiden. But he won in 1:09 3/5 and earned a 101 Beyer figure.

                    12. Gulfport: A $775,000 yearling purchase, the son of Unbridled's Song-Dream Supreme has come to life after showing little in his first three starts


                    • Original Poster

                      As for Violence, who I thought was going to the Remsen, he's actually going out west! Pletcher said next start is the $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Betfair Hollywood Park on Dec. 15.

                      That is a 10-4-2-1 point rated race.

                      What about Normandy Invasion? He's southern bound for rest with a light spring schedule:

                      Brown said that Normandy Invasion was scheduled to leave Belmont by van for Palm Meadows on Tuesday. He said he and owner Rick Porter would discuss whether to run Normandy Invasion two or three times before the Kentucky Derby. One spot Brown mentioned was the Wood Memorial, likely to be run April 6.


                      • Original Poster

                        (pdf) Wynn|Encore KY Derby - Future Book odds as of Nov 26, 2012

                        Chad Brown trained Normandy Invasion is now at 35-1 as is Bob Baffert trained Power Broker.

                        Uncaptured dropped to a measly 10-1 which makes him the rock bottom lowest with Shanghai Bobby now sliding up to 18-1. Also bumping up a bit is Violence going from 20-1 now to 25-1.

                        The biggest surprise is Bern Identity at a rather fat 50-1 for such a good horse.


                        • Original Poster

                          Everyone has got a dream .... DRF 12-4-12: Wachtel hopes he's found a Kentucky Derby horse in My Name Is Michael

                          Wachtel hopes he landed on one in My Name Is Michael, a son of Macho Uno who ran a solid second in last Saturday’s Display Stakes at Woodbine.

                          Wachtel, who purchased a 75 percent interest in the horse from Barry Butzer and Dominion Bloodstock, said Monday that My Name Is Michael would be transferred to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott later this week and would be given an opportunity on dirt in late January or early February.
                          Derby Future Book (Wynn|Encore) as of 11/ 26/12 pegs 'My Name is Michael' at 275/1 today and when the book opened up ...


                          • Original Poster

                            The last point-awarding 'Road to the Derby' race is this Saturday (Dec 15th) at Betfair Hollywood Park with the 1 1/16 Mile Grade 1 $750,000 CashCall Futurity

                            Those horses expected to show up include four from Baffert.

                            Baffert worked all four colts - Carving, Den’s Legacy, and Really Mr Greely, along with Title Contender - at Santa Anita on Sunday or Monday and said Tuesday.

                            He’s Had Enough, the runner-up in the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita on Nov. 3 and the expected favorite for the CashCall Futurity.

                            Carving, who must be supplemented for $30,000, won the Real Quiet Stakes on Nov. 1, his second stakes win of the fall. Owned by Baffert’s wife, Jill, and Olympic skier Bode Miller, Carving also won the C.B. Afflerbaugh Stakes on dirt at Fairplex Park in September.
                            Also expected in this race is the New York shipper of Violence who won the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes!


                            • Original Poster

                              A nice grey horse to keep an eye on: Flashback.

                              He made his debut with Julien Leparoux up for Bob Baffert Saturday Dec 8th. The 3 1/2 length victory - in a field of 9 runners - was awarded with a lofty Beyer Speed Figure of 93. The secret was out however as Flashback went off at even-money odds

                              Flashback is not a named horse on the 12/3/12 Wynn|Encore Vegas winter book with Derby odds - yet.


                              • Original Poster

                                Texas Bling

                                He wins at a ginormous price ($259.60 to win) in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park and suddenly he's pointed on the Derby trail. We'll see if this dream continues in Arksansas as he'll run in either the $150,000 Smarty Jones on Jan. 21 or the Grade 3, $300,000 Southwest on Feb. 18.

                                Both those would-be races for Texas Bling are part of the 36 stakes races that are recognized by CDI as generating Derby points. Somewhat amazingly both the Smarty Jones and Southwest only awards 10 -4 -2 -1 points for the 1st four finishers, respectively.

                                Video replay: 2012 $300K Remington Springboard Mile with Texas Bling shocking the field.


                                • Original Poster

                                  In case anyone is interested in who has points and who doesn't. This link is being updated after each point-awarded race. As of 11/24/12, when the last points were awarded:


                                  Two clear cut leaders are
                                  Shanghai Bobby has 20
                                  Goldencents has 14

                                  After which six horses are tied with 10 points; one horse with 5 points; and then eight horses tied with 4 points


                                  • Original Poster

                                    A larger field of 11 for the CashCall Futurity (Grade I) at 1 1/16-mi on the synthetic track.

                                    Race 9 @ 4:35 PM PST. I believe with the rights to Betfair Hollywood Park that both HRTV and TVG air the race live.


                                    • Original Poster

                                      Latest Las Vegas odds for the Kentucky Derby futures Dec 10, 2012 from Wynn|Encore

                                      Newest entry of note: Texas Bling at 500-1


                                      • #99
                                        And Texas Bling got plenty of dirt in his face, and had to find a hole to punch through. Very gutsy!

                                        Is Remington dirt, or synthetic? Have had computer issues lately, which correction now has everything a little bit smaller, so hard to read the PDF chart to see...thanks!
                                        But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all. H.C.Anderson


                                        • Original Poster

                                          Originally posted by CVPeg View Post
                                          And Texas Bling got plenty of dirt in his face, and had to find a hole to punch through. Very gutsy!

                                          Is Remington dirt, or synthetic? Have had computer issues lately, which correction now has everything a little bit smaller, so hard to read the PDF chart to see...thanks!
                                          I'm pretty sure Remington in Oklahoma is dirt. He put in a nice effort but can he follow that up in a Derby-point race against more serious contenders? It remains to be seen but this weekend will shed more light on other early Derby-ish runners.