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2013 Kentucky Derby 139th Edition: congrats to Orb (Shug, Joel, Phipps/Janney)

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Lamb Chop View Post
    Cut-and-paste work of a 4th grader? Ick.
    Done by the same 4th grader that selected the qualifiers.
    But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all. H.C.Anderson


    • #62
      Originally posted by Glimmerglass View Post
      Egads the just released official 2013 Kentucky Derby 139th logo couldn't look any more woefully inadequate.
      Yeah, that's pretty terrible.

      Here, I made a new one. I think this more accurately reflects the current modus operandi in the CDI offices.

      Whaddya guys think?
      bar.ka think u al.l. susp.ect
      free bar.ka and tidy rabbit


      • #63
        Originally posted by Rubyfree View Post
        Yeah, that's pretty terrible.

        Here, I made a new one. I think this more accurately reflects the current modus operandi in the CDI offices.

        Whaddya guys think?
        Truth in advertising!!
        But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all. H.C.Anderson


        • Original Poster

          And the early Las Vegas 2013 Derby favorite is already being determined - now that is uber fast! Drum roll please .... @ 30-1 it's Uncaptured

          “I made Uncaptured the favorite because I was really impressed by what I’ve seen,” said Avello of the Mark Casse trainee with three stakes wins at Woodbine. “We didn’t take any big bets on him, so many other bettors aren’t as sure he’ll transfer his form to the dirt, or maybe I set the odds too low. If no one bets him at 30-1, I’ll raise him.”
          In case anyone was wondering about how betting odds work with a casino ...

          What does it take for Avello to move a number? He said he’s letting customers bet “to win $20,000.” So, if you want to bet a horse at 100-1, you can bet up to $200 before he’ll move the line (and let you bet again if you accept the adjusted price). Avello said he’ll take $100 no matter the price, so a horse at 300-1 could put his exposure at $30,000.

          Avello said he’s already on the hook for $80,000 on yet another Pletcher trainee, Archwarrior, who opened at 150-1 and was bet all the way down to 50-1 on the first day.


          • #65
            Originally posted by ivy62 View Post
            Just because a lot of fillies have not won others did run.. Lets be hypothetical... Since Rachel Alexandra only ran against fillies should she have not been allowed to try the derby? I know she did not but this is hypothetical. Honestly, if Jesse Jackson had bought hre before the Oaks who knows what he would have done. Her entire campaign up until then was all against her own sex...
            [WARNING: Pedantic Nonsense Follows]
            Just as well; 10f wasn't her distance.
            Starts with an 'S,' ends with a 'T.' You figure it out.

            "Houston, Tranquility Base here, picking up where we left off ..."


            • Original Poster

              No change from what was reported before in this thread but 2014 is the earliest that Hawthorne and Illinois Derby might get added to the Derby point eligible races.

              Courier Journal 9-22-12 "Hawthorne can only look to 2014 for Illinois Derby’s inclusion in Kentucky Derby series"

              Carey said the Chicago track offered [to Churchill Downs] to move the Illinois Derby into March, where it might be grouped with 50-point races like the Tampa Bay Derby, Risen Star, Spiral and Sunland Park Derby.

              “We were even willing to change the date into the March time frame, which doesn’t make any financial sense for us to do,” said Carey, who said Churchill suggested the move. “…. They said, ‘If you guys come back with some ideas, we would take a look at it for 2013.’ We provided those to them, and they just came back and said, ‘Nope. Good luck in ’13 and maybe we’ll see you in ’14.’”

              Carey said the Illinois Derby now will try to entice horses who might already have qualified on points and whose connections are looking for a softer final prep than the Grade I races, as well as those targeting the Preakness or Belmont.


              • Original Poster

                I guess this somewhat makes this the defacto 2013 Kentucky Derby thread ...

                (pdf) As of 9-30-2012 the Wynn Vegas 2013 Derby Odds

                The favorite is now a tie @ 30-1 ... Canadian-bred and based runner Uncaptured with a record of 4 4-0-0. Although he may be a polytrack specialist.

                And moving alongside is Archwarrior (as cited in the Saratoga thread 'the second coming of Seattle Slew' which was rather overhyped thus far) is also 30-1 and will be seen next most likely up against the 2nd wagering favorite ....

                Shanghai Bobby is at 35-1 and he'll run next October 6th in the Grade 1, $400,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont against Archwarrior

                Next up at 40-1 is Goldencents. Who? The Cali based runner is 1-0 with a 7-length win at DelMar in a maiden on Sep 2nd. Looks like Jimmy "The Hat" (or some playa out there) put a lot of action on him to drop from 125-1 to the 40-1

                Oddly Kauai Katie (f) is listed at 200-1!! Dreaming of Julia (f) at 55-1. I suppose the future book folks are looking at the new Derby entry rules and suspecting its even less likely a filly will gain eligibility into the Kentucky Derby.

                I know each year we all see fillies who are wowing folks because they mature earlier but Kauai Katie has sizzled. For those who haven't followed her:

                Video - her Keeneland auction, Sep 2011 yearling Hip # 1043 (sold $90k)

                Video - her maiden at Saratoga 7-20-12

                Video - her G2 debut in the Adirondack at Spa 8-12-12

                Video - her G2 followup in the Matron at Belmont 9-30-12

                $90k auction price and earnings after 3-0 record a cool $288,000 thus far with two blacktype earning and crushing victories


                • Original Poster

                  As of today (10/3/12) there are just 8 horses with Derby points. Two races thus far as qualifiers 1 in the US and 1 in Europe with the first four finishers, in each respective race, getting points.

                  Horse - (Points) - Owner - (Trainer)
                  Power Broker - (10) - Gary and Mary West - ( Bob Baffert)
                  Steeler (IRE) - (10) - Sheikh Mo - (Mark Johnston
                  Know More - (4) - Reddam Racing LLC - (Doug O'Neill)
                  Artigiano - (4) - Godolphin - (Mahmood Al Zarooni)
                  Capo Bastone - (2) - Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners - (John Sadler)
                  Al-Waab (IRE) - (2) - Mubarak Al Naemi - (Sir Henry Cecil)
                  Carving - (1) - Baffert and Miller - (Bob Baffert)
                  Birdman (IRE) - (1) Anthony Hogarth - (David Simcock)
                  Power Broker (video) just won the Grade 1 $250,000 FrontRunner Stakes (nee Norfolk Stakes) at Santa Anita Park on September 29, 2012. He was a $360,000 purchase at the 2011 Keeneland September yearling sale.

                  Carving was purchased by skiier Bode Miller - namesake of Bob's on in partnership with Jill Baffert for $55,000. He earned the 1-Derby point for his 4th place finish in that same FrontRunner stakes as Power Broker.

                  Don't expect Euro-based Steeler (IRE) to be in Louisville in May:

                  By finishing [Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket at one mile] in 1:35.67, Steeler set a new course record for a juvenile. Sportinglife.com reports that he bettered the old mark for his age group of 1:35.70 set by Forward Move in 2004.

                  "[Steeler] will come into his own next year and could be a Derby horse," Fallon concluded, but meaning the Group 1 Derby at Epsom, not Churchill Downs.


                  • #69
                    Thanks for posting these, GG.

                    But I have to say, that after reading all of this, and feeling the constraints of the points only for particular races, the system has definitely put a damper on getting psyched for the Derby trail.

                    I hope CD gets some kind of comeuppance and rethinks the system for the next year.
                    But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all. H.C.Anderson


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Glimmerglass View Post
                      Carving was purchased by skiier Bode Miller - namesake of Bob's on in partnership with Jill Baffert for $55,000. He earned the 1-Derby point for his 4th place finish in that same FrontRunner stakes as Power Broker.
                      It's a strange world where active Olympic athletes have enough money to buy a race horse!
                      If you are allergic to a thing, it is best not to put that thing in your mouth, particularly if the thing is cats. - Lemony Snicket


                      • Original Poster

                        Originally posted by poltroon View Post
                        It's a strange world where active Olympic athletes have enough money to buy a race horse!

                        Although Bode isn't exactly working at the Safeway bagging groceries when he's not skiing. Per Forbes back in 2/10/2010 earned for 2009 an estimated $1.3 million. Keep in mind he only owns a part of the $55,000 purchase price of the horse. So maybe Jill put in $40k and he just $15k. Thus far they've made money on the purchase.

                        Bode is now engaged to professional volleyball player Morgan Beck so in the future they'll have two paychecks in the household to pay for horses


                        • Original Poster

                          The Breeders' Cup Juvenile this year, as noted before, will not allow for runners to be administered lasix. One of the noted races this weekend which will most certainly confirm a few runners for going on to the BC JV and garner points towards the Kentucky Derby (which has no lasix ban) is the: G1 Foxwoods Champagne Stakes.

                          The $400,000 purses race has a field of seven. Only two of which will be running without lasix: Chief Havoc and Fortify.

                          What of say Shanghai Bobby and Archwarrior (both to be so administered for the Belmont Park race) - will they skip the Breeders' Cup? Nada. Trainer Todd Pletcher says that's too much money to leave on the table.

                          “If we had a problematic bleeder, it might mean that you wouldn’t go,” Pletcher said. “Right now, the 2-year-olds that we’re dealing with, none of them I would classify as problematic bleeders. I think we will continue to manage them the way that we normally do and then on race day we hope they run well without Lasix.”

                          “Personally, it doesn’t bother me, I can’t speak for all my owners,” said Pletcher, who won the Juvenile in 2010 with Uncle Mo. “What are your choices? If you have Shanghai Bobby or Archwarrior or somebody that wins the Champagne, by deciding not to go to California you’re giving up the opportunity to run in a $2 million race, you’re giving up the opportunity to be champion 2-year-old to run in the Remsen for $200,000? It’s the way it’s set up, it’s not great, but it is what it is. Play or don’t play.”
                          In terms of points for the Derby eligibility:

                          Champagne: 10-points W || 4-points P || 2-points S || 1-point for 4th

                          With a field of just 7 runners almost everyone gets something


                          • Original Poster

                            From the Grade 1, $400,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont there wasn't much of a race ... the initial overblown hype of Archwarrior being 'the next Seattle Slew' isn't there to date. It was Shanghai Bobby dispatching the field without being asked for anything.

                            Video: G1 Champagne Stakes (Oct 6, 2012

                            (Rosie, with props to her, won two Grade 1 races yesterday!)

                            Derby points added the following: Shanghai Bobby, 10; Goldencents, 4; Fortify, 2; and Archwarrior, 1.

                            As suggested before Pletcher would ship 'Bobby' to Santa Anita for the BC JV but that actually is a bit less likely now. Bobby's owner remarked that: I was a believer then, and I probably am still, that the horses that run in the 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup race don’t come back,” Wolf said.

                            Also Shanghai Bobby’s victory pushed Pletcher past Bobby Frankel for second on the all-time [trainer's] earnings list. At day’s end, Pletcher had $228,168,465 in purse earnings, surpassing Frankel’s second-place mark of $227,912,022. D. Wayne Lukas, Pletcher’s former boss, is the all-time leader with $260 million.
                            On the "girls" side the Frizette Stakes was decimated with a horse cast in the stall -Roveing Patrol - resulting in her being scratched along with another. The field already was very small. So just four horses broke from the gate but damn it was a great match race between the two heavyweights - Dreaming of Julia and My Happy Face.

                            My Happy Face won her maiden at the Spa by 21 1/4-lengths, where as Dreaming of Julia won her two prior by a combined 26+ lengths. It couldn't have been a better two dueling at the stretch.

                            It's worth watching ...

                            Video: Oct 6, 2010 Grade 1, $400,000 Frizette Stakes


                            • Original Poster

                              Suggestive comments with Shangai Bobby skipping the party at Sanita Anita next month now revoked - 10-8/-12 Starlight Racing says 'Bobby' will go to the BC JV

                              Current points system for the Kentucky Derby (sub-ranked by earnings)
                              October 8, 2012
                              Rank. Horse. [Derby Points] Earnings
                              1. Shanghai Bobby. [10] $571,000
                              2. Joha. [10] $368,767
                              3. Power Broker. [10] $150,000
                              4. Steeler. [10] $132,849
                              5. Dynamic Sky. [4] $201,668
                              6. Know More. [4] $200,000
                              7. Goldencents. [4] $80,000
                              8. Artigiano.[4] $63,564
                              9. Java's War. [2] $130,000
                              10. Fortify [2] $100,000
                              11. Capo Bastone. [2] $48,000
                              12. Al Waab. [2] $25,306
                              13. Pataky Kid. [1] $107,300
                              14. Carving. [1] $43,500
                              15. Birdman. [1] $43,031
                              16. Archwarrior [1] $20,000


                              • Original Poster

                                The latest new Vegas odds are out and reflect the success (and losses) of others: (pdf) Wynn|Encore Vegas - 2013 Derby odds as of October 8, 2012

                                As noted by Jennie Reese/Courier Journal, a horse owned by a Rick Pitino partnership, having broken his maiden at Santa Anita, appeared on the odds board.

                                Avare, who broke his maiden at a mile on turf Saturday at Santa Anita, debuts in Johnny Avello’s Kentucky Derby 139 odds at 250-1. Trained by 2012 Kentucky Derby winner Doug O’Neill, he’s owned by a partnership that includes University of Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino. And he’s named for Rick Pitino’s long-time financial advisor Rick Avare.
                                * Uncaptured went from 30-1 to 60-1 after losing Woodbine’s Grey Stakes.
                                * Archwarrior is now at 40-1 after finishing fourth in the Champagne.
                                * Shanghai Bobby, Champagne winner, is the lowest at 20-1
                                * Carving, the Bode Miller/Jill Baffert owned horse, went up from 150-1 to now 175-1


                                • Original Poster

                                  Latest Wynn|Encore Sports Book odds for the 2013 Derby as Nov 5, 2012. As expected BC JV winner Shanghai Bobby drops to just 11-1 odds. No other horse that close to him.

                                  An interesting low odd horse that had a decent (but nothing "wow" about) maiden win on Oct 20th: Z Big Apple now at 20-1

                                  Right now with the Derby Points it's Shanghai Bobby with of them 20 and the other 19-point holders at 10-or-less. BC JV runner up, in a good fight, He's Had Enough sits with in a multi-tied position with just 4-points along with the 3rd place BC JV finisher, Capo Bastone, also with 4-points.


                                  • Original Poster

                                    LA Times: Breeders' Cup crowd catches a much-needed rising star

                                    Racing experts said that with Napravnik's stock rising, it's not a given she'll be back on Shanghai Bobby if a stronger entry emerges by Derby day.

                                    "Todd's never asked me to take her off [Shanghai Bobby], and it sounds like she likes the horse," owner Jack Wolf said.

                                    To that, Napravnik cracked: "Oh, you didn't get the bill."


                                    • Original Poster

                                      A nice victory by the horse owned by downhill skiing champ Bode Miller (and co-owned with Jill Baffert) - Carving - who may be a Derby road contender: (video) $100k Real Quiet Satkes at Hollywood Park at 1 1/16-mi

                                      The Real Quiet is a prep for the Grade 1, $750,000 CashCall Futurity on Dec. 15. Baffert said Carving likely would be one of several runners he has in the race. “I’m going to run as many as I can,” he said. “I’ll try to load the gate up.”


                                      • #79
                                        Yo Rubyfree

                                        Originally posted by Rubyfree View Post
                                        Yeah, that's pretty terrible.

                                        Here, I made a new one. I think this more accurately reflects the current modus operandi in the CDI offices.

                                        Whaddya guys think?
                                        I'll buy the alternative t-shirt if you have any made up!



                                        • Original Poster

                                          Maybe I haven't paid attention to the price of onsite tickets for the Oaks & Derby - and yes these are new, special seating sections - however this struck me as expensive:

                                          The Louisville track is introducing a new seating and Section 110 hospitality venue for the 2013 Derby and the Oaks that offers the historic track's first stadium-type seating, hospitality highlighted by limitless food and drink, and a first-turn clubhouse location that provides the track's most breathtaking view of its iconic Twin Spires.

                                          Kentucky Derby and Oaks fans who have registered online at CD/tickets for the opportunity to purchase tickets to the 2013 renewals of those events at Churchill Downs will be contacted via e-mail the morning of Nov. 14 with details of the online offering of more than 3,000 first-turn trackside seats.

                                          Pricing for the two-day ticket package for Kentucky Derby and Oaks will range from $698 for uncovered seats to $799 for seats located under cover.
                                          For free you can watch the Churchill Downs backside from 1976 (thanks to Equidaily for spying it) with the Kentucky PBS video release on-line: (video) The Backside from KET (26 minutes):

                                          A visit to the backside of Churchill Downs—the stable area where the jockeys, trainers, and exercisers work—from 1976.