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2013 Kentucky Derby 139th Edition: congrats to Orb (Shug, Joel, Phipps/Janney)

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  • Original Poster

    CVPeg - I'm sure The New York Times will entertain including a big picture of the PeTA van right next to their Derby column by Joe Drape tomorrow

    The ban on fireworks, backpacks, duffel bags, briefcases (? is this 1979?), and weapons all seem logical ... the umbrellas (for infield people) and cameras don't.

    For anyone looking for additional analysis Jeremy Plonk (DRF) has a pretty good outline of who he's picking and not - example with a "not on my ticket"

    GIANT FINISH: The last horse to enter the Derby picture just before the draw, this New York-bred has not faced top competition. His pressing, forward style likely will find him chasing quicker runners and giving way when the real running begins. Trainer Tony Dutrow said he would send an assistant down to saddle the horse. If the trainer’s not showing up, neither is my money.


    • I'll go on record with my picks (apparently this year's race is like potato chips, I can't choose just one)...


      and my long shot

      It is kind of a well matched field, no real standout in my opinion....
      "As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."- William James

      Proud member of the Wheat Loss Clique.


      • Mine are Overanalyze, Verrazano, and Revolutionary.

        ETA: I agree you can't really rule out Mylute - sure is a plucky little fighter!
        "The standard you walk by is the standard you accept."--Lt. Gen. David Morrison, Austalian Army Chief


        • Original Poster

          Updated odds -


          WSJ: Identifying the Derby's Surest Losers

          The Overrated

          The average odds of the last 20 Derby winners is 15-1, which puts Mylute (15-1) right in the sweet spot. But a close look at his record suggests that when he's faced tougher competition, he hasn't had enough to get to the winner's circle. His rider, Rosie Napravnik, the race's only female jockey, is a crowd favorite and will draw bettors. Without her aboard, Mylute would be a much bigger price.
          Which means the Derby winner is: Itsmyluckyday

          Yes, he will have to battle Orb. The last time these two contenders faced each other, Itsmyluckyday (15-1) lost by 2 3/4 lengths. But we think he has the goods. In his loss to Orb in the Florida Derby, he was coming off a two-month vacation. Itsmyluckyday's running style is to stay closer to the front, just behind the pacesetters. He is likely to make his move before Orb switches to a higher gear. And in terms of betting, would you rather go home with what 15-1 could buy you than what you get from 7-2? Steak dinner or Happy Meal? You choose.


          • Original Poster

            The rain looks like it will come today

            According to the hour-by-hour forecast from The Weather Channel, the rain might relent for a while after it starts around noon, but not much. Radar depictions show a dense cover of rain moving slowly in a northeastern direction from the southwest. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low 60s.
            Churchill track superintendent David Lehr sealed the track overnight.

            Again: only 5 of the 19 runners in the Derby have ever raced on an off track: Revolutionary, Giant Finish, Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, and Vyjack.


            • So Glimmerglass, after maintaining this thread and keeping us all informed, you must have a favorite? I don't want to re-read the thread to discover if you have already indicated who you like, but can you tell us who is your pick to win?

              Actually, it would be fun if we all picked. We can have our own Kentucky Derby online party.

              I'll start. My pick to win is Revolutionary.
              "Random capitAlization really Makes my day." -- AndNirina


              • So what is the deal? Why can't we watch the early races???

                I do not seem to have the package with universal sports. I also live in a state which does not allow online betting. So am I doomed to watch them on tape all day?!?!?!
                Another killer of threads


                • I like Verrazano and Revolutionary!
                  My horse of a lifetime!!


                  • Exactly what do you want? Racing thoroughbreds are reflective of the country's principles at large and we are in a transition period. Perhaps you might want to change the essential morality and focus of the country and then see animal husbandry improve for the greater good of all, not just a few of the super rich, the Sheikhs and their Wall Street, British Empire imitators.

                    For me, I am riding with Gary Stevens, the handsome Oxbow, and I can hardly believe it myself, but good old D Wayne who seems to have lost the support of the oil soaked crowd over the years, maybe his consumate horsemanship has become stronger as he has been somewhat humbled over the years. I have not read the stats, I have not read the workouts, I have not watched the horses progress as related in every detail that way, but this is my heart choice. Again, I can hardly believe I am saying this because, well, to be kind, D Wayne has not been someone who I have respected in the past.

                    Just finally caught up with the essence since I have been busy trying to get Glass-Steagall passed as federal legislation. Of course I would have to support a horse named Revolutionary but if he wins and Borel goes and poses proudly with Obama, all I would have to say is that his verve for photo ops would overpower whatever intellectual insight he may have gained in the last while. It is not a given that you have to be politically moronic to be a winning sport's figure, that is for you Calvin.
                    "We, too, will be remembered not for victories or defeats in battle or in politics, but for our contribution to the human spirit." JFK


                    • Orb and Revolutionary. Really hoping for Orb, as his connections deserve it. I know that means nothing out on the track, but between that trainer/owners vs Pletcher the numbers man with Revolutionary, no contest whom I would rather see in the winner's circle. That said, I think Revolutionary has a great chance today, but also think Orb does, too. Those two would definitely be my top choices if I were at the track.

                      Mediumshot: Normandy Invasion.

                      Longshot: Mylute.


                      • Sticking with my Withers and LA Derby pick- Revolutionary. Love this guy.

                        Normandy Invasion to get a piece of the board.

                        Long Shots- Palace Malice, Mylute.


                        • My trifecta box would be Orb, Goldencents, and Palice Malice.

                          Long shots: Golden Soul. And according to the local news reports, Frac Daddy has looked great in the mornings and is the wise guy bet.
                          *OMGiH I Loff my Mare* and *My Saddlebred Can Do Anything Your Horse Can Do*


                          • Wow. Everything looks wet. Glad I went to the Derby last year. Had a great time. A friend of mine went back again this year. Hope she's staying dry.

                            My pick is gonna have to be the one horse I have "connection" with. And that's Goldencents.
                            "My time here is ended. Take what I have taught you and use it well." -- Revan


                            • Favorites: Orb, Revolutionary. Longshots: Mylute, Oxbow.
                              come what may

                              Rest in peace great mare, 1987-2013


                              • If it keeps pouring down as it has for hours, those horses may need some paddles to make it to the finish line.

                                Bet on the mudders.
                                \"Horses lend us the wings we lack\"


                                • Mylute for me!
                                  We're spending our money on horses and bourbon. The rest we're just wasting.


                                  • Delauney and Rosie's trip in the mud looked great! My heart is in my throat for every trip..Im excited now!


                                    • This is a really hard race for me to figure out this year. I think I'm over analyzing it.
                                      HA! Maybe that should be my pick. I'm joking...sort of.

                                      I really like Orb but not sure with the sloppy track. I think Will Take Charge will be there along with Vjack and Revolutionary....see, hard race to figure out.

                                      Good luck to all!


                                      • Thsi is going to be very interesting. I am THRILLED that Gary Stevens has come out of retirement!
                                        Normandy Invasion is my Students Dutch Warmbloods name. He was foaled on D day. I guess it will be hard to root for a specific one. I am thrilled about Rosie riding.


                                        • Like Gary Stevens, so kind of torn because FRAC DADDY! From Montana!