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Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

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  • Kentucky Derby 2006 - odds, etc

    It is that time again with the future betting on the Kentucky Derby - I have to admit a lot of the names with low odds never were on my radar with juvenile stakes wins. Others have put in great runs this summer/fall and yet are getting little respect.

    Case in point - Master of Disaster who won with impressive ease but took 3rd to Henny Hughes at Saratoga is currently 60-1

    Caesars/Bally's Vegas odds as of 12-06-05

    1. (tied) Private Vow 12-1 (won G2 Kentucky Jockey Club)
    (tied) Stevie Wonderboy 12-1 (won BC Juvenile)

    3. Bluegrass Cat 15 -1 (Todd Pletcher trained; won the G2 Remsen Stakes)

    4. (tied) First Samurai 20-1
    (tied) A.P. Warrior 20-1 (in the G1 Hollywood Futurity Dec 17th)

    6. Flanders Fields 25/1 (by AP Indy)

    7. (tied) Henny Hughes 30/1 (owned by Godolphin; won G2 Saratoga Special, bought for $4.3 million in July 2005)
    (tied) Dr. Pleasure 30/1 (by Thunder Gulch)
    (tied) Sir Percy 30/1
    (tied) Stream Cat 30/1 (won G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile)
    (tied) Sunriver 30/1

    Highest filly: Adieu at 60/1

    Interestingly there is a horse, George Washington - I wonder, how did that get by the Jockey Club when the purported name of the slave mistress of President Thomas Jefferson was nixed?

    Other names of note that I recall from 2005:
    Catcominatcha 60/1
    Dawn of War 100/1
    High Cotton 35/1
    Laity 100/1
    Menacing 100/1
    Sharp Attack 100/1
    Too Much Bling 150/1

  • #2
    I'll bet they got someone named George Washington to sign a release of the name. Thanks for the odds.
    "If you can't feed 'em, don't breed 'em."


    • #3
      I happened to see the Flash Stakes on tv this summer. It was a three horse photo. THe times were slow but all three looked like racehorses to me!
      they were
      Beacon Shine (75-1)
      Speed of Sound (150-1) and
      Union Course (100-1).

      we shall see!
      A man must love a thing very much if he not only practices it without any hope of fame or money, but even practices it without any hope of doing it well.--G. K. Chesterton


      • Original Poster

        One follow-up: Your Tent Or Mine listed at 35/1

        Los Angeles Daily News 12/16/05 - "Your Tent or Mine is one to watch in Futurity"


        On Nov. 19, a Drysdale-trained 2-year-old named Your Tent or Mine went into the Hollywood Prevue Stakes as the 6-1 long shot in a five-horse field and came out of the starting gate dead last.

        But Your Tent or Mine and jockey Patrick Valenzuela caught front-running Da Stoops in mid-stretch and pulled away to win by 2 lengths.

        In the process, Your Tent or Mine burned up the main track, clocking 1:21.12 in the fastest 7 furlongs of the meet by a horse of any age.

        That performance makes Your Tent or Mine a contender to win Saturday's Hollywood Futurity, the $401,250 race that highlights the closing weekend of the six-week season.

        If the cleverly named colt - he's by Forest Camp, out of Shes Got the Look - wins the Futurity, Drysdale will leave Hollywood Park with a prospect for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.


        • Original Poster

          worth pointing out - ESPN's horse page has a video link (see right side, mid page, just below the Youbet.com ad)

          Of the video offerings if you click on "more videos" include the impressive win by Your Tent or Mine also Bluegrass Cat's Remsen Stakes win.

          Not to mention several races are with Vic Stauffer making the race call - one of the best callers out there. He can really make a final charge that much more exciting!


          • #6
            George Washington is a Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien horse, so he would have been registered with Weatherbys and not the JC.
            Creo que el mundo es bello,
            que la poesÃ*a es como el pan, de todos.


            • #7
              Hm. Rather like Bluegrass Cat. Particulary at those odds. Must get my pal in Vegas to drop some money for me on one of the race books.
              Congratulate me! My CANTER cutie is an honor student at Goofball University!


              • Original Poster

                Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
                Los Angeles Daily News 12/16/05 - "Your Tent or Mine is one to watch in Futurity"

                If the cleverly named colt - he's by Forest Camp, out of Shes Got the Look - wins the Futurity, Drysdale will leave Hollywood Park with a prospect for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.[/i]
                An upset in the Futurity - but it wasn't Your Tent or Mine

                Hollywood Park 12/17/05 8th Race - Results

                Win: Brother Derek
                Place: Your Tent Or Mine <-- went off as 2nd fav at 8-5
                Show: Bob and John

                4th - A. P. Warrior <- went off as the 5-2 favorite

                Note Kentucky Derby odds, prior to today's race:

                Brother Derek 40/1
                Bob and John (who was previously DQ'd from a graded win on a terrible call) 35/1


                • #9
                  GO PRIVATE VOW !!!!!
                  Forward is good


                  • Original Poster

                    On Brother Derek's win Saturday

                    "Don't kid yourself, all we think about is winning the Derby," said trainer Dan Hendricks. "If you ask 1,000 people on the street about horse racing, they're going to say Kentucky Derby and Bill Shoemaker."


                    Brother Derek was purchased in March for $275,000 and named after a Mormon missionary.


                    Was was last year's Hollywood Park Futurity winner? Giacomo


                    • Original Poster

                      How many times I have seen this same type of article, ponding if the "Breeders' Cup Jinx" will be broken this year ...

                      Yep, Stevie Wonderboy will have this buzz, and sadly high expectation on him, until another massive effort by another horse (a la Bellamy Road) puts in a breath taking effort in a 2006 prep race.

                      MSNBS/NBC Sports 12/21/05 "Stevie Wonderboy will try to be first to win both Breeders' Cup, Derby"


                      Stevie Wonderboy will need to continue his forward progression to end the 0-for-21 skid, but the probable 2-year-old Eclipse Winner has a large following. He is expected to make his first start in the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita on January 14, which will be one of the most highly anticipated returns of any horse. The game is his to lose.


                      • Original Poster

                        Could trainer Michael Matz have a Derby contender under his control? Maybe. While Barbaro is a turf horse thus far he could switch over ...

                        Blood-Horse 1/1/06 "Barbaro Stays Hot in Tropical Park Derby"


                        "He's obviously a very talented horse," Matz said. "Whether he carries the class he shows on turf over to the dirt, we just don't know yet, but his mother and half-brother (Holy Ground) ran well on the dirt. So, we'll talk it over with the Jacksons to see whether we try him on dirt next."

                        With $60,000 in graded stakes earnings he already is much more near the typical $110,000 minimum cut-off

                        Barbaro was not listed in the Bally's/Caesars betting pool by name and would instead be part of the "Field (all others)" at a less juicy 7/2


                        • Original Poster

                          Could this be ... yes! An early top 25 list Blood-Horse (Steve Haskin) 1-3-05 - "Kentucky Derby Trail: On Your Mark, Get Set... "

                          Excerpted without the comments:

                          1 – Stevie Wonderboy
                          2 – Private Vow
                          3 – First Samurai
                          4 – Your Tent or Mine
                          5 – Brother Derek
                          6 – Bluegrass Cat
                          7 – Barbaro
                          8 – High Cotton
                          9 – Henny Hughes
                          10 – Bob and John
                          11 – A.P. Warrior
                          12 – Saint Daimon
                          13 – Stream Cat
                          14 – Superfly
                          15 – Flashy Bull
                          16 – Dawn of War
                          17 – Saint Augustus
                          18 – Dr. Pleasure
                          19 – Half Ours
                          20 – Little Cliff
                          21 – Catcominatcha
                          22 – Fabled
                          23 – Wanna Runner
                          24 – Bashert
                          25 – My Golden Song
                          Several others are cited outside of the list.

                          Things are getting interesting


                          • Original Poster

                            The Saratogian 1/4/06 - "It's not too early to look toward the Derby" .. here are Michael Veitch (you, know his brother knows a thing or two about the Triple Crown chase) and his top 10 as of now:

                            side note - contender comments removed
                            They are ranked in order of the writer's preference.

                            1. BLUEGRASS CAT
                            2. STEVIE WONDERBOY
                            3. FIRST SAMURAI
                            4. PRIVATE VOW
                            5. HENNY HUGHES
                            6. BROTHER DEREK "Very capable grandson of Alydar"
                            7. SORCERER'S STONE
                            8. A. P. WARRIOR
                            9. YOUR TENT OR MINE
                            10. BOB AND JOHN
                            Aside: Godolphin co-owner, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashed al-Maktoum (see contender 'Henny Hughes' above) died in Australia today.


                            • Original Poster

                              Hopefully I'm not hammering away too much on this topic of the 3-yr old racing season

                              Associated Press 1/3/06 - "Stevie Wonderboy Set for 3-Year-Old Debut"


                              ... is set to open his 3-year-old campaign in the San Rafael Stakes [Grade-2] on Jan. 14

                              - snip -

                              The colt, named for singer-songwriter Stevie Wonder, became the early favorite for the May 6 Derby with his win in the Juvenile and all but wrapped up the Eclipse Award as 2-year-old male champion.

                              [Merv] Griffin, a 15-time Emmy Award winner, won't be at Santa Anita for the race.

                              "He's on a yacht in the Virgin Islands," O'Neill said.


                              • Original Poster

                                Another horse now on the columnist's radar is one cited last year and is none other than Lost In The Fog's stablemate: Frisco Star

                                (Aside for trivia, his original name: Monster on the Loose)

                                Blood-Horse 1/6/06 - "Steve Haskin's Derby Trail Stakes Preview: Aventura Comes Up Strong"


                                Another colt of interest from the same connections as one of last year's biggest stars is Frisco Star, who began his career in much the same manner as his stablemate Lost in the Fog. Also owned by Harry Aleo, Frisco Star, a son of More Than Ready, broke his maiden by 8 1/2 lengths on Aug. 6 at Santa Rosa in a track-record 1:01 3/5 for 5 1/2 furlongs. He is up to five furlongs in his works at Golden Gate, and rattled off a half in :46 2/5 three works back on Dec. 17.
                                also worth citing ...

                                The most notable was Tatsuji, an Irish-bred son of Fusaichi Pegasus who turned in a spectacular performance in his career debut at Santa Anita, in which he got squeezed at the start, dropping far back in last, then unleashed a powerhouse move to sweep by everyone. Despite racing greenly, ducking in at the three-sixteenths pole, he still was able to get back in gear and draw off to an impressive two-length score for last year's Derby-winning connections, John Shirreffs and Jerry and Ann Moss.


                                • Original Poster

                                  Another one to watch: Achilles of Troy (trained by Jennifer Pedersen) who put in a very impressive stakes-record field crushing effort in the Count Fleet Stakes yesterday. Its worth pulling up the NYRA race video on line to see it.

                                  NY Daily News 1/8/06


                                  As impressive as Smarty Jones was ìn winning the Count Fleet Stakes two years ago, Achilles of Troy was even more so yesterday, scoring by 14 lengths after running the mile-and-70-yards in a stakes-record time of 1:39.61 for the distance.

                                  Smarty Jones, of course, went on to capture the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness and while it's a long way to go to the May 6 Kentucky Derby, Achilles of Troy looks like he has the ability as long as he stays healthy.

                                  Entering the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia asked on Achilles of Troy ($8.70), and the 3-year-old responded with an explosive run, opening up through the lane to score over Extra Bend and Platinum Couple.

                                  For comparison's sake, Smarty Jones won the 2004 Count Fleet by five lengths, running the distance in 1:41.42.

                                  Although the connections still haven't decided on where Achilles of Troy will start next, the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 11 would seem logical, followed by the March 18 Gotham Stakes and then the April 8 Wood Memorial before they can dream of a trip to Churchill Downs for the Derby.


                                  • #18
                                    Too Much Bling just blew the San Miguel field away at Santa Anita. He's probably only a sprinter, though.
                                    It's a uterus, not a clown car. - Sayyedati


                                    • Original Poster

                                      A very nice effort - in particular the game, dig in with the stretch duel, "eye to eye" - by Doctor Decherd to win the $125,000 Aventura S. at Gulfstream Park

                                      In the duel, Itsallboutthechase took 2nd while My Golden Song took 3rd. In Summation the favorite took 5th while Catcominatcha came in a poor 7th.


                                      • Original Poster

                                        Steve Haskin (Blood-Horse) has his new update on the Derby Trail and reiterates some of the above action, like Doctor Decherd, Achilles of Troy, and Too Much Bling.

                                        I liked his remark - as I feel the same way - with the naming convention for Itsallaboutthechase:

                                        As for Itsallboutthechase, his potential and his pedigree make up for his name (sorry, I just dislike those one-word, 18-letter names that roll off the tongue as smoothly as bulldozer over broken glass. It's bad enough giving a horse a sentence for a name, regardless of its derivation, it's even worse when the sentence is so long you can't even fit it into the name and have to start chopping letters off.)
                                        Other horses he cites in the 1/10/06 BloodHorse article:

                                        One horse to keep an eye on is Keyed Entry, who wired an allowance field on the Aventura card to win by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:09 2/5. The son of Honour and Glory is now two-for-two for Pletcher, but he still has to show what he can do going two turns.

                                        - snip -

                                        Pletcher also saddled the impressive maiden winner Exclusive Quality on the same card. The son of Elusive Quality, who cost $850,000 as a yearling, came between, then around, horses from fifth to win by two lengths in 1:10 3/5. He is another who is by a brilliant stallion, but has good stamina in his tail-female family. He showed excellent acceleration on the far turn and again in the stretch. The main lesson to be learned from his race is that he dislikes the whip, throwing his tail up every time he was hit.

                                        - snip -

                                        In other races this weekend, Final Copy made it three in a row winning the Turfway Prevue Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths. The son of Souvenir Copy still has not been over seven furlongs in seven career starts, but he has a strong pedigree, with an excellent combination of speed and stamina, the latter of which he gets from his maternal great-grandsire Alleged.