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On the road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

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  • No Arch in Zenyatta. She is out of a Kris S mare though. Maybe that's what you were thinking.


    • I saw Arch at Claiborne during my tour during WEG, and they were quite high on him, said he was still looking for the big horse (Blame stepping up nicely right about then) but got consistently good ones. The groom didn't take him out of the stall for us like Pulpit and Eddington, though. He said he bites.



      • Originally posted by dressagetraks View Post
        Congratulations to I'll Have Another, but I was tremendously impressed with Bodemeister.
        Me too. I thought Bodemeister ran an incredible race and look forward to what the Preakness brings. But that doesn't take away from I'll Have Another's run, and, my very amateur opinion, his jockey's getting to a maybe better lane of travel down the stretch.

        And I still hope for Union Rags to have success...


        • Originally posted by dressagetraks View Post
          I saw Arch at Claiborne during my tour during WEG, and they were quite high on him, said he was still looking for the big horse (Blame stepping up nicely right about then) but got consistently good ones. The groom didn't take him out of the stall for us like Pulpit and Eddington, though. He said he bites.


          Hmm, a Roberto-line stud who bites? Never would've imagined!

          Gorgeous horse, though, and I'm rooting for him to keep the Roberto line going.


          • Originally posted by frugalannie View Post
            Ok, I admit I'm an eventer (and therefore Union Rags looked fantastic to me pre-race: great sport horse type), but I have to ask if his jock was ummmm.... not up to the strategic challenge of the Derby. I know NOTHING about big time racing, mind you. Just asking a neophyte question.

            Anyone interested in educating me?
            It's easy to blame the jock sitting on your couch with 6 cameras showing where everybody is and what they are doing. Usually it's more then one thing that goes either wrong for the loser or right for the winner and a jockey has a half second to react with the correct decision to make the situation work out for the better.

            UR seems to have gotten caught flat footed when the gates opened. Lack of focus on a hot day with 165k screaming people? Maybe. Something bothering him physically? Not apparent at this time. Just was not poised and ready to spring despite not being a novice in the gate for big races.

            Just by what the talking heads said, UR is a horse that likes to gallop along freely, he does not have "tactical speed" that can be turned on and off. They expressed some concern if he had a rough trip? He would never get rolling.

            And he didn't. They ALL can have rough starts with 20 in the gate, its a regular mugging sometimes. There have been horses fracking falling on their faces out of the gate or pinched back and put on their knees 3 strides out that got it back together and won, or at least rallied for a paycheck. Just not that kind of horse and you can't develop what's not there.

            Perhaps that will improve with maturity and more racing, only time will tell. Or, as was mentioned, he is just one of those horses that finds trouble and has no luck.

            I do think if you combine this with the disappointing Florida Derby finsh that may have included a questionable decision by the jockey? Maybe too many tweets defending his position and a bit of "I will prove you wrong today" expressed in the pre race coverage? Maybe a rider switch could shake things up a little. No blame and these riders know it's not personal when asked to step down for another.

            Hey, does anybody have the fractions for UR in the last 1/4 mile? Was he going faster then the first 4 under he wire or lagging where he never was going to catch anything not backing up?

            Bodemiester was pretty convincing. And tough. If it didn't take too much out of him, he looks like my pick for the Preakness.
            When opportunity knocks it's wearing overalls and looks like work.

            The horse world. Two people. Three opinions.


            • Original Poster

              2012 Derby - who is going where next?

              Preakness will be, as is typical these days, seeing few returning faces. It should've been in Trinniberg's wheel house - but instead foolish (to be polite) decisions took over. So what for them? No Preakness but instead Grade 2 Woody Stephens, a seven-furlong race on the Belmont Stakes undercard.

              McLaughlin said Alpha would not go on to the Preakness, but is possible for the Belmont Stakes.

              No Union Rags in the Preakness. Additionally Matz: 'Union Rags’s race a disaster'

              “Julien said he heard a pop at the three-eighths pole, but we jogged him last night and I didn’t see anything, there was no heat or anything like that,” Matz said.

              Union Rags was scheduled to ship back to Fair Hill on Sunday evening, after which Matz will have two decisions to make – whether to run back in the Preakness or await the Belmont and who will ride Union Rags in his next start.

              “My first thought now is to say we won’t go to the Preakness,”
              No Take Charge Indy following his injury during the race. Instead he'll to have surgery for chip in ankle, will miss summer races

              No Gemologist or El Pardino in the Preakness.

              Trainer Todd Pletcher said Gemologist, who entered the Derby 5 for 5 including a victory in the Wood Memorial, was going to spend a week at WinStar Farm in Lexington, before rejoining him at Belmont Park. El Padrino, the Risen Star winner, was flown to Belmont on Sunday. Neither is under consideration for the Preakness, but Pletcher said the Belmont Stakes on June 9 is possible for either or both.
              By the way the clear cut duh quote of the Derby:

              Shivananda Parbhoo, owner of Trinniberg, said his horse “couldn’t get the distance.”


              • Thanks, Findeight. I was combining the Florida and Kentucky Derby in my comments. But your response makes a tremendous amount of sense and I appreciate it.

                I can't imagine being a jockey with only one horse on the track, not to mention the crush in any race, and in these important 3yo races where it's a bit of a melee . And they make it look easy! Hats off to every one of them.
                They don't call me frugal for nothing.
                Proud and achy member of the Eventing Grannies clique.


                • Original Poster

                  The 138th Running of the Kentucky Derby set records, just not on the fractions, payout or final time New wagering and attendance records:

                  The preliminary all-sources handle figure for the Derby, as reported by Churchill, was $133.1 million, an 18.8 percent increase over last year’s handle and a 12.4 percent increase over the previous high mark.

                  All-sources handle for the entire 13-race card also established a record at $187 million, up 13.2 percent from last year’s total of $165.2 million. The all-sources handle figure dwarfs any other single-day wagering number for a racing card, including the Saturday Breeders’ Cup card at Churchill last November, in which handle was $97.6 million.

                  Ontrack, attendance was 165,307, as reported by Churchill, a record. The previous record was reported last year, at 164,858. Churchill does not announce attendance figures except on Derby Day and the day preceding the Derby.

                  Betting ontrack for the Derby was $12.3 million, according to Churchill, a rise of 7.1 percent. That figure also was a record, breaking the previous mark of $12.1 million, set in 2008.
                  Oh and if you think some people made a killing on the track - it wasn't the only killing of the day: Body found in Churchill Downs barn; police suspect foul play

                  The morning after the 138th Kentucky Derby race at Churchill Downs, the body of a Hispanic man was found in a barn at the track and police say they suspect foul play was involved in his death.

                  A track security officer found the body in barn No. 8 shortly before 5 a.m. and called police, Louisville police spokeswoman Alicia Smiley said.

                  There was no identification on the body, and investigators are unsure of the man’s age, Smiley said.


                  • Original Poster

                    Hansen is a go for the Preakness

                    Dr. Hansen said the immediate plan for Hansen is to have him race in the Preakness at Pimlico on May 19. Beyond that, though, remains to be seen.

                    “He’s got a lot of fans. I just wish he wouldn’t have let them down,” Dr. Hansen said. “Something wasn’t right at the beginning. He’s going to Baltimore though, and we’ll test this group again.”
                    Also most-likely going to Baltimore: Went the Day Well

                    “He seems fine, he has one pretty good cut on his right front ankle but it looks more superficial,” Motion said of the March 23 Spiral Stakes (gr. III) winner. “I think that if he seems alright this week, there’s a pretty strong possibility he’ll be in the Preakness. The beautiful thing about running in the Spiral is he’s had six weeks heading into the race, it’s not like we’ve crammed in a couple. It’ll be a little bit more laid-back this year than it was last year, that’s for sure.”
                    Derby runner up Dullahan - no crab cakes for him

                    Meanwhile, owner Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing said third-place Derby finisher Dullahan was unlikely for the Preakness although he had not discussed plans with trainer Dale Romans, who is based at Churchill Downs.

                    “It would be three races in five weeks,” Crawford said of the April 14 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) winner. “Belmont’s a possibility.”


                    • The Preakness might actually be a distance more to Hansen's liking but they really, really ought to be looking at shorter races for him. He tries, he really does, but he doesn't have the distance in him.

                      And "a pop"? Oh please. Union Rags apparently is one of those who needs an ideal trip, exactly to his liking, or he's not going to win. The horse wasn't awake at the break, got squeezed back, and couldn't make up the ground. (I confess, I have nothing against him besides my innate sense of hype aversion but what was the big deal? I mostly remember didn't he lose the Juvenile?)

                      Meanwhile I like Went The Day Well...curious to see how he develops.

                      And can we start a petition to change Bodemeister's stupid name? He deserves something classier.
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                      • This is cool. You get to ride the Kentucky Derby winner... http://youtu.be/FANlodDP5nY

                        They use the Trakus info to reconstruct the race.
                        Looks like he actually ran 6693ft, which is 93ft longer than the distance of the race (10f = 6600ft). Don't know if that takes into account the run up, the point where the clock actually starts, about 30-35ft from the starting gate.


                        • Original Poster

                          How about the lone Also-Eligible horse who ultimately didn't get in Friday morning and went back to Baltimore? My Adonis ran on Derby day at Pimlico in the $50,000 ungraded Cananero II Stakes. Taking 3rd

                          At least they took home $5,000 for that effort. The Derby would've cost $25k to get into the gate. No chance they would've finished in a paying position. So reality/luck prevailed.

                          The 2nd place finisher: Brimstone Island (who lost by a neck) is one of about 15 maybe Preakness starters. His record is 10 4-3-1 $90,403, so the graded earnings still prevail and if there is a full house he's out of luck.

                          Other potential runners: I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Went The Day Well, Creative Cause, Liaison, Hansen, Optimizer, the aforementioned Brimstone Island, Cozzetti , Hierro, Paynter, Pretension, The Lumber Guy, Tiger Walk and the Rick Dutrow trained Zetterholm.

                          With regards to Union Rags in the Belmont and Julien Leparoux retaining the mount - don't bank on it:

                          Matz said the Belmont “makes more sense.”

                          “I just didn’t think after the Florida Derby that he would have another one like that,” Matz said. “… I’m just so disappointed for the horse, for the owner. ... It’s not many times you get to go into the Kentucky Derby and be one of the favorites. ...

                          “It just seemed like everything Julien did was the wrong situation.”

                          Asked if a jockey change is under consideration, Matz said: “I don’t know what’s going to happen there. I think Julien was upset. I think it’s better to let it cool down and we’ll … talk it over and see what’s best for the horse.”
                          Sounds like (if I were a betting man) he'll be off the horse. They could pick up Belmont-based Rosie Napravnik. Too early in the meet to judge her success but this far at Belmont she is 5th in the jockey standings.


                          • Originally posted by danceronice View Post
                            ...Union Rags...I confess, I have nothing against him besides my innate sense of hype aversion but what was the big deal? I mostly remember didn't he lose the Juvenile?
                            He lost. Hansen won.

                            Not coming off a recent win or a particularly impressive, hard fought loss? He should not have been the favorite, I didn't even have him in exactas...not that what I did use paid off, I missed using the winner. Mine ended up 2nd thru about 6th.

                            The jocky deal....think Matz is handling it well with the press. JLP sounded off pretty good on twitter in defense of his Florida ride and tweeted all week he would be exonerated in the Ky race plus stated so in a pre race network TV interview. He is young and needs to learn to shut up, not helping himself at fault or not.

                            I imagine we will see a new rider for the Belmont...and if the horse does not get himself untangled in 1 1/2 miles and loses under a third rider? Going to be clear he is just not that fast a horse in the afternoon.
                            When opportunity knocks it's wearing overalls and looks like work.

                            The horse world. Two people. Three opinions.


                            • Original Poster

                              Not taking anything away from 'I'll Have Another' there is significant praise for Bodemeister and his effort. He could be a Curlin-esq developing runner with the rest of the 3-yr old year to showcase more maturity and honed skills.

                              Andy Beyer 5/7/12: "Bodemeister's effort was like few others in Kentucky Derby history"

                              Over the very fast Churchill Downs surface, Bodemeister sped the first quarter mile in 22.32 seconds, a half mile in :45.39, and three quarters of a mile in 1:09.80. NBC’s commentators noted that this was the fifth-fastest pace in the race’s history, but even that fact does not begin to suggest the difficulty of what Bodemeister was trying to do.

                              In the Derby’s 137 previous runnings, a total of 10 horses had sped the first half mile in 45.4 seconds or less. There were some legitimate contenders among them, but all 10 of them virtually collapsed after this exertion. All finished in 10th place or worse. Yet Bodemeister kept on going.

                              Some second-guessers have criticized Smith for letting his mount go so fast in the early stages, but he was making a reasoned decision. Bodemeister had raced only four times in his career, and Baffert had not had the luxury of experimenting to learn whether he could be restrained to sit behind other horses. “I didn’t want to change his style,” the trainer said, knowing that the Derby is no place to experiment.
                              I’ll Have Another finished the 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.83, a slow time over such a fast track. The time translated into a Beyer Speed Figure of 101, the second-worst in the last 20 years; next to Giacomo’s 100 in 2005.

                              Bodemeister, whose effort on Saturday was so good that the defeat didn’t even sting Baffert. “This is the only time I’ve run second where I’ve been happy because he ran his race,” the trainer said. “He’s a brilliant horse.”


                              • Original Poster

                                Final TV numbers for the 138th Kentucky Derby coverage - positive

                                NBC Sports' coverage of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby drew 14.8 million viewers, the third most-watched Kentucky Derby in 23 years, and up two percent from last year’s Derby according to official national data provided today by The Nielsen Company. The household rating of 9.0/20 is up six percent from last year’s race. Since implementing NBC Sports’ ‘Big Event Strategy,’ the last four Kentucky Derby races have all recorded at least 14.5 million viewers.

                                NBC Sports’ coverage of the Kentucky Derby over the last 12 years averages more than 2 million more viewers than the previous 12 Kentucky Derby broadcasts on ABC (14.1 million vs.12.0 million, up 17 percent).

                                Saturday’s race (6:06-6:54 p.m. ET), won by I’ll Have Another, is up two percent from last year’s 14.5 million, making it the third most-watched Kentucky Derby since 1989 when Sunday Silence won the Derby (18.5 million). The household rating of 9.0/20 is up six percent from last year’s race (8.5/19).


                                • I thought it was interesting that per Blood Horse story on the Derby, I'll Have Another is named not for drinks but for cookies. The owner apparently was very fond of his wife's cookies and decided one evening while munching to name a horse that.


                                  • Originally posted by dressagetraks View Post
                                    I thought it was interesting that per Blood Horse story on the Derby, I'll Have Another is named not for drinks but for cookies. The owner apparently was very fond of his wife's cookies and decided one evening while munching to name a horse that.
                                    They mentioned that on NBC...I wonder how the HORSE feels about cookies. (Lucky will ALWAYS have another.)
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