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2011 Belmont Stakes 143rd edition

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  • 2011 Belmont Stakes 143rd edition

    The 143rd edition of the Belmont Stakes - post-positions were determined within the hour:

    PP. Horse. ... Jockey. ... ML Odds
    1. Master of Hounds. ... Garrett Gomez. ... 10-1
    2. Stay Thirsty. ... Javier Castellano. ... 20-1
    3. Ruler On Ice. ... Jose Valdivia, Jr. ... 20-1
    4. Santiva. ... Shaun Bridgmohan. ... 15-1
    5. Brilliant Speed. ... Joel Rosario. ... 15-1
    6. Nehro. ... Corey Nakatani. ... 4-1
    7. Monzon. ... Jose Lezcano. ... 30-1
    8. Prime Cut. ... Edgar Prado. ... 15-1
    9. Animal Kingdom. ... John Velazquez. ... 2-1
    10. Mucho Macho Man. ... Ramon Dominguez. ... 10-1
    11. Isn't He Perfect. ... Rajiv Maragh. ... 30-1
    12. Shackleford. ... Jesus Castanon. ... 9-2
    Last edited by Glimmerglass; Jun. 13, 2011, 11:34 AM.

  • #2
    Hey, Glimmerglass:

    Shackleford was my horse in the Derby and Preakness, I love front running horses, but.......have they been condioning him for the distance? I don't think he can hold off the others that long.

    And local news said one of his owners is here in Savannah. Cubbedge or something.

    Comment

    • Original Poster

      #3
      And history is being made (actual starters may change) in this Belmont running:

      Of the 12 runners, eight ran in the Kentucky Derby, including the first seven finishers. This marks the first time ever that the top seven finishers in the Derby have competed in the Belmont.
      With 19-starters in the Derby this race is considerable percentage of that field in a mulligan and should bring out the interest in fans and punters.

      Comment

      • Original Poster

        #4
        Further detail for those interested:

        Trainers (by post position): 1, Aidan O'Brien. 2, Todd Pletcher. 3, Kelly Breen. 4, Eddie Kenneally. 5, Tom Albertrani. 6, Steve Asmussen. 7, Ignacio Correas. 8, Neil Howard. 9, Graham Motion. 10, Kathy Ritvo. 11, Doodnauth Shivmangal. 12, Dale Romans.

        Owners (by post position): 1, Mrs. John Magnier. 2, Repole Stable. 3, George and Lori Hall. 4, Tom Walters. 5, Live Oak Plantation. 6, Zayat Stables LLC. 7, Sagamore Farm. 8, Adam Donald. 9, Team Valor International. 10, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Dream Team. 11, Kharag Stables. 12, Michael Lauffer and W.D. Cubbedge.
        Weights: 126 pounds (all)
        Distance: 1 1/2 miles
        Total Purse: $1 million. Payouts accordingly - First place: $600,000. Second place: $200,000. Third place: $110,000. Fourth place: $60,000. Fifth place: $30,000.

        Television coverage (US) for both Friday June 10th and Saturday June 11th:

        Friday, June 10

        VERSUS: 4 – 5 p.m. – Belmont Stakes Classics

        VERSUS: 5 – 6 p.m. – Live coverage from Belmont Park featuring the Grade 3 Poker Handicap on the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap presented by Ram

        Saturday, June 11

        VERSUS: 3 – 5 p.m. – Live coverage from Belmont Park featuring the Grade 1 Foxwoods Just a Game, the Grade 2 True North Handicap presented by Emirates Airline, and the Grade 2 Woody Stephens presented by VisitNassauCounty.com

        NBC Sports: 5 – 7 p.m. – Live coverage from Belmont Park featuring the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap.

        The actual Belmont Stakes is tagged as being 6:35 pm EST

        VERSUS: 7 – 7:30 p.m. – Post-race Belmont Stakes coverage

        Comment


        • #5
          So do any of the newcomers look good? I usually bet an exacta or trifecta box, and I like Animal Kingdom and Nehro. Who else to include?

          Caitlin
          Caitlin
          *OMGiH I Loff my Mare* and *My Saddlebred Can Do Anything Your Horse Can Do*
          http://community.webshots.com/user/redmare01

          Comment

          • Original Poster

            #6
            Originally posted by cloudyandcallie View Post
            Shackleford was my horse in the Derby and Preakness, I love front running horses, but.......have they been condioning him for the distance? I don't think he can hold off the others that long.
            I cannot speak to his conditioning, but you have to think the distance is fairly black and white. If the connections thought he would be on fumes after 1 1/4-mi then they should/would have passed. At least that's my logical view.

            http://www.drf.com/news/shackleford

            Comment


            • #7
              Just a quick, and totally insufficient thanks to Glinmmerglass, who has been such a great resource throughout the Triple Crown series. I actually feel like I understand the strategies and considerations!

              Thank you, GG.
              They don't call me frugal for nothing.
              Proud and achy member of the Eventing Grannies clique.

              Comment


              • #8
                I happen to like Shackleford for a bunch of reasons, some logical, some "from the heart". I am not sure, however, that he can do the distance...its a long extra way. Sadly, as I think 1 1/2 miles is a great racing distance, it doesn't seem to me that the conditioning is the same as it used to be when this distance was more common. (I can remember when the Jockey Club Gold Cup was 2 miles!! - and Kelso had a lock on it.)

                Animal Kingdom seems to have the ability to do it; of the others, I honestly haven't a clue. Some long shot could also be right there. Last year's winner - where is he now?
                We don't get less brave; we get a bigger sense of self-preservation........

                Comment


                • #9
                  In a year of lukewarm 3 year olds, the Belmont actually has drawn a pretty impressive field. I'm looking forward to it. I did not expect to say that this year after all bets for a TC were off.
                  Don't fall for a girl who fell for a horse just to be number two in her world... ~EFO

                  Comment

                  • Original Poster

                    #10
                    In addition to the rarity of this year's edition with the 1st seven finishers of the Derby entered (plus another also ran) but also Master of Hounds participation is the 1st time since the 1990's that a foreign-invader ran in the Belmont.

                    How about success in the Belmont by position? Well it's worth noting that a 12th starter is exceedingly rare and as such no horse has ever won from that gate.

                    Post. #Wins.
                    1. 23
                    2. 11
                    3. 13
                    4. 9
                    5. 14
                    6. 7
                    7. 13
                    8. 5
                    9. 4
                    10. 2
                    11. 2
                    12. 0
                    Some comments from DRF's Dick Jerardi:

                    I do not think Shackleford was anything like a fluke winner of the Preakness. In fact, if you kept watching past the wire, you would have noticed that Animal Kingdom never did get past Shackleford.

                    After Shackleford went from first to fourth in the final few hundred yards of the Derby, it was assumed that the colt was a need-the-lead type who would never win a big race without an easy lead and moderate fractions.

                    Turned out Shackleford was not really collapsing in the Derby. He was actually going faster at the end of that race than he was at the end of the Preakness. His final quarter-mile in Kentucky was run in approximately 25.35 seconds. His final three-sixteenths in the Preakness went in 19.25. Take that out to a quarter-mile and it would be 25.60. And it’s likely it would have been more than that, as the colt was almost certainly decelerating.
                    Sounds promising for Shackleford, right? Well Jerardi likes Animal Kingdom:

                    My opinion is that Animal Kingdom is going to run really well. The Derby winner’s best likely will be good enough to win the race. I do not see the distance as an issue. I do not see the Triple Crown grind as an issue. Certainly, the trainer and jockey are proven on the big stage. The Derby winner will be favored.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      OK, it was discussed before the Derby that the inside post is not good for that race. But here the most winners have come from there. So what makes the difference? The size of the field? The length of the race? In just an ordinary race without the peculiarities of the TC races, is the inside good or bad?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        In fact, if you kept watching past the wire, you would have noticed that Animal Kingdom never did get past Shackleford.
                        I have never understood this line of reasoning. The race finishes at the line and jockeys stop riding and start pulling at that point. How you can determine who would have passed who had the race been longer from what they do while pulling up is a serious stretch at best.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Elly Mae II View Post
                          OK, it was discussed before the Derby that the inside post is not good for that race. But here the most winners have come from there. So what makes the difference? The size of the field? The length of the race? In just an ordinary race without the peculiarities of the TC races, is the inside good or bad?

                          It's a loooong run to the first turn so they can sort themselves out without having to dive in for position in front of a huge field and slam the door on the hopes of anything running on the inside that does not get off dead quick. And isn't Belmont a mile and a half oval and not just a 1 mile track???

                          But, IIRC, that 12 hole Shakleford got stuck with?????? Isn't that right smack on the outside rail in front of the grandstand and just feet from the SRO crowd on the rail??? Seem to recall a couple of real good colts get upset out there that close to so many noisy and active fans. May or may not be a factor but it is different from Churchill and Pimlico.
                          When opportunity knocks it's wearing overalls and looks like work.

                          The horse world. Two people. Three opinions.

                          Comment

                          • Original Poster

                            #14
                            Originally posted by findeight View Post
                            But, IIRC, that 12 hole Shakleford got stuck with?????? Isn't that right smack on the outside rail in front of the grandstand and just feet from the SRO crowd on the rail?
                            I suspect if a colt has dealt with the mega sized crowds at the Derby - the largest they'll ever see in their lives bar none - that a mere 60k at Belmont shouldn't have much impact.

                            In the Preakness he was sweating out like mad (temps/humidity? noise? anticipation? too much Guinness?) however it had zero impact on his effort that I could see.

                            Temperatures should be mild on Saturday which is a plus as today racing was cancelled due to extreme heat at Belmont Park and the risks with racing in it

                            http://www.belmontstakes.com/

                            An interesting if not outright cool resource with every horse to ever run in the Belmont and where they finished, see

                            pdf Names of the 1,046 Belmont Starters

                            Example - letter A horses that raced in the Belmont and finished 12th; 1971 - Adobe Ed, 1999 - Adonis, 1996 - Appealing Skier, 1993 - Arinthod.

                            Trivia: Only horse to ever be DQ'd from the Belmont Stakes? 2010's Uptowncharlybrown who crossed the line in 5th but was moved to last. The issue was that the jockey did not weight in at the correct weight. As I recall the partnership sued NYRA unsuccessfully to have his finish reinstated.

                            Non-US bred horses to win: Canada - Victory Gallop (1998); Ireland - Cavan (1958), Go and Go (1990); England - Saxon (1874), Bowling Brook (1898), Hourless (1917), Johren (1918), Gallant Man (1957), Celtic Ash (1960)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I dunno GG, not the size of the crowd but the proximity of a part of it to the horses at that particular point in time. Alot of them don't like the infield saddling amongst the crowd at Pimlico either even if they normally are fine with big crowds and remained calm in that tiny paddock area at Churchill.

                              Take that to being last to load in the gate just a few feet in front of a vocal and excited crowd and knowing that bell is mere seconds away with all that adreneline?

                              Recall seeing more then one usually good in the gate have some issues out on that outside rail in this particular race.

                              Maybe it is part of why nobody has won it from there and maybe not. We can agree that it will not be a factor if it really is a great horse and not just a very good one.

                              But it is worth a thought or two when trying to bet the race. Me? I don't think he can get the distance but he is a dead game fighter and a fast horse so who knows.

                              I like Animal Kingdom as I liked both his finishes, don't think it took too much out of him and I bet he likes the distance. Probably box him with the #6 and/or maybe work the #1 into that somehow-kind of like that one.
                              When opportunity knocks it's wearing overalls and looks like work.

                              The horse world. Two people. Three opinions.

                              Comment

                              • Original Poster

                                #16
                                Equibase (pdf): free past performances for the Belmont Stakes

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Thank you GG, saves me the cost of the DRF tomorrow.
                                  When opportunity knocks it's wearing overalls and looks like work.

                                  The horse world. Two people. Three opinions.

                                  Comment

                                  • Original Poster

                                    #18
                                    A quick one-page 'bettor's guide': NYPost's Ed Fountain - 143 Belmont Stakes

                                    Early wagering has Shackleford dismissed at double digits! Master of Hounds was down to around 5-1. It will be an interesting race. The Brooklyn Handicap at 1 1/2 mi Friday shows that a horse can go wire to wire.

                                    Comment

                                    • Original Poster

                                      #19
                                      Just to reiterate TV coverage today with the track looking sloppy:

                                      VERSUS: 3 – 5 p.m. Eastern – Live coverage from Belmont Park featuring the Grade 1 Foxwoods Just a Game, the Grade 2 True North Handicap presented by Emirates Airline, and the Grade 2 Woody Stephens presented by VisitNassauCounty.com

                                      NBC Sports: 5 – 7 p.m. Eastern– Live coverage from Belmont Park featuring the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap

                                      (The Woodford features among other Gio Ponti, Viscount Nelson, and Prince Will I Am)

                                      VERSUS: 7 – 7:30 p.m. Eastern – Post-race Belmont Stakes coverage

                                      Channel Listing

                                      Comcast
                                      NBC: HD – 232, SD – 4
                                      VERSUS: HD – 206, SD – 43

                                      Time Warner
                                      NBC: HD – 704, SD – 4
                                      VERSUS: HD – 481, SD – 122

                                      Cablevision
                                      NBC: HD & SD – 4
                                      VERSUS: HD & SD – 146, 408, 719

                                      Verizon FIOS
                                      NBC: HD – 504, SD – 4
                                      VERSUS: HD – 590, SD – 90

                                      DirecTV
                                      NBC: HD & SD – 4
                                      VERSUS: HD & SD – 603

                                      Dish Network
                                      NBC: HD & SD – 4
                                      VERSUS: HD & SD – 151

                                      For those considering Master of Hounds and bank on trainer Aidan O'Brien how poorly has his record been in the States? Poor. O'Brien hasn't won a classic outside of Ireland in three years. Further his training record is a drought laced 1-30 at Belmont.

                                      Also what about just waiting to the last minute to wager on the post-time favorite? The last favorite to win was Afleet Alex in 2005.

                                      Odds as of Noon Eastern Saturday June 11th

                                      Belmont Stakes odds (as of noon Eastern)

                                      1. Master of Hounds, 4-1
                                      2. Stay Thirsty, 17-1
                                      3. Ruler On Ice, 33-1
                                      4. Santiva, 13-1
                                      5. Brilliant Speed, 9-1
                                      6. Nehro, 7-2
                                      7. Monzon, 30-1
                                      8. Prime Cut, 22-1
                                      9. Animal Kingdom, 5-2
                                      10. Mucho Macho Man, 7-1
                                      11. Isn’t He Perfect, 34-1
                                      12. Shackleford, 10-1

                                      Comment

                                      • Original Poster

                                        #20
                                        With the off-track thus far closers (3 races completed) haven't been able to manage a thing. Horses close to the pace are the only ones with a shot. That doesn't bode well for a Master of Hounds, for example.

                                        The New York Daily News compiled what each Belmont runner has done on a wet track - listed in post position order.

                                        1) Master of Hounds has never raced over a wet track from eight career starts.

                                        2) Stay Thirsty finished second in his debut at Belmont over a track labeled good.

                                        3) Ruler On Ice owns a win and a second place finish in two starts over wet tracks, breaking his maiden in the slop at Delaware in October.

                                        4) Santiva finished third in his debut last summer at Saratoga over a strip labeled good.

                                        5) Brilliant Speed has never run over a wet track in his nine race career.

                                        6) Nehro never started over a wet track in his six-race career.

                                        7) Monzon broke his maiden at Laurel over a track labeled good.

                                        8) Prime Cut has never started over a wet track from seven career starts.

                                        9) Animal Kingdom has never started over a wet track from six career starts.

                                        10) Mucho Macho Man is another who has never started over a wet track.

                                        11) Isn't He Perfect finished third over a track labeled good and was fifth in the Jerome over a sloppy, sealed strip.

                                        12) Shackleford has never raced over a wet track but worked well in the slop the week before the Derby.
                                        For those wondering who Monzon is: He's, named after the Argentine middleweight boxing champion Carlos Monzón, drew the No. 7 post and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano. He has won three of his eight starts and finished sixth in his last race, the May 14 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. He will travel to New York early Saturday morning.

                                        Monzon is owned by Kevin Plank, founder & CEO of Under Armour and owned of the former Vanderbilt stables in Maryland - Sagamore Farm

                                        May 21, 2011: A Modern Sports Success Story Meets a Historic Racing Farm

                                        Comment

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