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Who do you like for the Belmont?

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  • #21
    Had a knowledgeable friend mention Everfast the other day, Agree he’s a possibility.
    When opportunity knocks it's wearing overalls and looks like work.

    The horse world. Two people. Three opinions.

    Comment


    • #22
      Originally posted by Palm Beach View Post
      I don't get the support for Master Fencer, who does not have the pedigree to win.
      If races were always won based on pedigree, why would people bother to race the less well bred horse in races they probably ought not win??

      Good thing horses don't read their pedigrees or morning line odds...

      Maybe the reason I love animals so much is because the only time they have broken my heart is when they've crossed that rainbow bridge

      Comment


      • #23
        Master Fencer also had a lot of criticism coming into the derby. the horse ran far back last for most of the race. watch his stretch run. the horse covered an incredible amount of ground to come rolling in 6th. The problem with the Belmont and his running style is this: if he gets stuck too far back because he is lazy out of the gate, will he have enough time to make up ground without burning out

        I have him tagged to his the board.

        Comment


        • #24
          Originally posted by Where'sMyWhite View Post

          If races were always won based on pedigree, why would people bother to race the less well bred horse in races they probably ought not win??

          Good thing horses don't read their pedigrees or morning line odds...

          I agree with you but IMO (very limited knowledge read railbird) the Belmont is so long that pedigree can be taken into consideration. There’s well bred for turf, distance and sprint. Obviously nothing is absolute, but it’s a long race.

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          • #25
            I would agree that pedigree, odds and past performances should always be taken into consideration but I don't know that I'd dismiss a horse that didn't have the pedigree if past performance or gut feel (yeah, like that is useful ) leads one to believe differently. Heck, even those KeeSep horses get beaten

            Heck, I could be on board with liking the horse's markings or silk colors too

            Sometimes I think just dismissing because of pedigree may end up missing a good horse.
            Maybe the reason I love animals so much is because the only time they have broken my heart is when they've crossed that rainbow bridge

            Comment


            • #26
              Originally posted by Where'sMyWhite View Post

              If races were always won based on pedigree, why would people bother to race the less well bred horse in races they probably ought not win??

              Good thing horses don't read their pedigrees or morning line odds...

              How on earth did you come up with "Master Fencer doesn't have the pedigree to win = Races are always won based on pedigree?" That's quite the crazy conclusion.

              The Belmont winner historically has a classic distance pedigree. It's hugely important in handicapping the Belmont. Any horse that doesn't have a classic distance pedigree can be discounted as the winner.
              "When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in a confederacy against him."

              Comment


              • #27
                Originally posted by Denali6298 View Post

                I agree with you but IMO (very limited knowledge read railbird) the Belmont is so long that pedigree can be taken into consideration. There’s well bred for turf, distance and sprint. Obviously nothing is absolute, but it’s a long race.
                You are correct. It's a long way to go, and winner has always been a horse that was bred to go long. Of course, there are multiple horses in the race who are bred to go long, but you can throw out Master Fencer as the winner.
                "When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in a confederacy against him."

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                • #28
                  Let’s not forget “ pedigree” is not just on paper but reflected in the physical attributes and mental ability typically produced by those ancestors. They go long because they are physically and mentally able to.

                  Possible one that has the paper behind it might not end up with the physical and mental part or one without the pedigree end up with it. Always about the individual and how it’s been trained and conditioned to the task. Not just the paper.

                  Recent past performance, not wins but improving results against similar or better horses is the better indicator. In that WoW seems a good choice, distance is a question but it is for all of them. Won’t pay much tho. I’ll use him in exactas if I get to the racino.
                  When opportunity knocks it's wearing overalls and looks like work.

                  The horse world. Two people. Three opinions.

                  Comment


                  • #29
                    Most often, we create the best cake by sticking to the recipe. What has worked in the past will work again, if we have all of the variables of baking that cake in place. Sometimes it works out, some times not. It may express itself in that generation; it may not. There are wonderful stories of horses with no Pedigree who have done fabulous things.The cake doesn’t always come out exactly the way that you expect it to; there are many variables. However, this does not mean that the reservoir has not been created. The reality is that more often than not you can roll the dice in your favor by being a student of bloodlines and using what history shows works.
                    When someone shows you who they are, BELIEVE them- Maya Angelou
                    www.americansaddlebredsporthorse.net
                    http://www.asbsporthorse.blogspot.com/

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                    • #30
                      I guess it'll be WoW for me too, but Tacitus looks nice...
                      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                      Today I will be happier than a bird with a french fry.

                      Comment


                      • #31
                        As an aside, for me today the race to watch is the Met Mile over the Belmont

                        The likes of McKinzie, Mitole, Thunder Snow, Firenze Fire and others...

                        I'm going with Thunder Snow but I'd probably, if I was really going to bet, go with some of the exotics due to the depth and quality of the field.

                        Maybe the reason I love animals so much is because the only time they have broken my heart is when they've crossed that rainbow bridge

                        Comment

                        • Original Poster

                          #32
                          Originally posted by Where'sMyWhite View Post
                          As an aside, for me today the race to watch is the Met Mile over the Belmont

                          The likes of McKinzie, Mitole, Thunder Snow, Firenze Fire and others...

                          I'm going with Thunder Snow but I'd probably, if I was really going to bet, go with some of the exotics due to the depth and quality of the field.

                          I’m very excited for the Met mile today. My heart has to go with Thunder Snow!

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                          • Original Poster

                            #33
                            Mitole takes the Met Mile! Thunder snow came 3rd. Awesome race! I think I was more excited for that one then the Belmont.

                            Comment


                            • #34
                              OK, I’ll settle on War of Will because he’s improving and learning as is his young, 3rd generation blue collar jock. And his sire is doing pretty well putting good ones on the ground. That colt is a looker too.

                              Track is as fast as it can be, temp is not going to wring them out before they start and, so far in the under card, lower odds horses are doing well.

                              Couple him ina boxed exacta with MS and Bourbon War, who is quite popular today but Ive liked him for awhile.. Why not? Not going to use Tacitus or Everfast, can not use them all all and they will probably do well without my support. No money here but will still follow Tax, like the type. Maybe just not here today.

                              Terrific crowd even without a TC at stake on a beautiful day, good for racing.

                              Whatever, judging by early race fractions, the winner will earn it fair and square and go real fast. May they all stay safe and finish running their hearts out.
                              When opportunity knocks it's wearing overalls and looks like work.

                              The horse world. Two people. Three opinions.

                              Comment


                              • #35
                                Wow! In the Met mile, I was extremely impressed at McKinzie. He was bottled up in the stretch and came like a rocket when he finally got free. I thought his race was more impressive than Mitole's, who had a perfect trip.
                                Now available in Kindle as well as print: C-Sharp Minor: My Mother's Seventeen-Year Journey through Dementia. 10% of my proceeds will be donated to the Alzheimer's Association.

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                                • #36
                                  I have been fond of War of will ever since the derby. I'm not leaving him now.
                                  Founding Member: Spotted Saddlebred Pals Clique

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                                  • #37
                                    Tacitus is absolutely gorgeous. If he runs to his looks, he wins easily.

                                    Comment


                                    • #38
                                      Looks beautiful up there...
                                      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                                      Today I will be happier than a bird with a french fry.

                                      Comment


                                      • #39
                                        Well, did not see that coming.... but at least it was a clean race and everybody stayed on and stayed up.
                                        ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                                        Today I will be happier than a bird with a french fry.

                                        Comment

                                        • Original Poster

                                          #40
                                          Wow! Can’t believe Sir Winston won. (Did you guys see Master Fencer flying at the end!!). I will have to watch a replay again later to see the whole thing...my NBCSN app messed up RIGHT at post time and I missed the first half of the race (thanks NBC....)

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