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One more The Economy and Horses thread ... affecting big time shows

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  • Originally posted by monalisa View Post
    <snip>
    and increased regulation (we always end up paying more when this happens).
    <snip>
    The world has changed overnight. <snip>

    Flame suit donned: er, no, not quite overnight: try over 25 years.

    Reagan began to unravel regulation in the 80's which became so much confetti string under by George H. W. Bush which his son gleefully wrapped around our necks to string us up...

    Many actually believe that deregulation helped spur the inflated credit market of the early 2000's, which in turn fed the real estate beast. Beasts, bubbles, whatever--nothing stays the same, ever--and it's naive to think it will. At least the trajectory of the rise and fall can be somewhat managed with regulation. We still are very much like those in the twenties: given a choice between personal responsibility in the face of a bull market and making the fast buck damn the later cost, we typically end up forgoing the former for the instant gratification of the latter...

    I, for one, will welcome sane regulation to the financial industry: I think we've seen where so-called unfettered markets will bring us: to our knees.

    JMO

    Comment

    • Original Poster

      Take your political rumblings (most of which has been complete misinformation) to anotehr board. I am closing this thread. Geez people.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by APirateLooksAtForty View Post
        Take your political rumblings (most of which has been complete misinformation) to anotehr board. I am closing this thread. Geez people.
        I agree. The off-topic politics are getting annoying. Too bad people don't know how to stay on topic. This could have been an informative thread to read. Since I am not showing at the moment, I was interested in reading how it is affecting others who are.

        Comment


        • Yes, please, can we stay on topic? See my signature? I'm NOT going there!

          In speaking to trainers, etc., what I'm hearing is that, for now, the high end is still strong, but the middle is gone. Priced right (shows, horses, equipment, etc.) the low-end is OK, too. I'm thinking it might be a bit of a mirror of the stock market: some folks are taking advantage of underpriced stock, while others are at that level of wealth that can weather the storm.

          I also think, tough as it may be, these corrections may be good for us all. I've been ranting for years about indiscriminate breeding by breeders who are clueless about how to develop or market their horses. Too many breeders don't do their homework--much in the same way that some home buyers haven't done their homework. Too many breeder breed what THEY like, rather than what there might be a market for.

          Granted, I acknowledge that some aren't capable of doing homework and, yes, get taken advantage of (like by trainers and other advisors with hidden agendas and a taste for other people's money). And yet again, I can see how this applies to both horses and the financial meltdown (housing in particular). I've been ranting about registries and inspections and stuff like that that simply don't add significant value to maybe as much as 80% of the animals inspected (or their get). For example, even before this crisis, the market for untrained animals was small, so investing in expensive registration of some kinds of stock (future geldings, the "WB" offspring of giveaway-type TB mares, no-man's-land crossbreds whose bloodlines are irrelevant in a market that primarily values performance not pedigree, etc., etc.) has been ridiculous, ego-driven and even inflationary (the overpricing syndrome).

          Anyway, the original question involved showing, but I hope y'all don't mind that I injected a bit about breeding into the mix. We are the suppliers of what you (exhibitors) demand. I wonder if those positioned to supply at the high end, where the demand is, will come out ahead now, unlike the proponents of that "middle market" which we've debated in the breeders forum.
          Sportponies Unlimited
          Athletic Thoroughbred crosses for the highly motivated, smaller rider.

          Comment

          • Original Poster

            Sorry, I really did want to close it, but can't figure out how ...

            Comment


            • Originally posted by pwynnnorman View Post
              Yes, please, can we stay on topic? See my signature? I'm NOT going there!

              In speaking to trainers, etc., what I'm hearing is that, for now, the high end is still strong, but the middle is gone. Priced right (shows, horses, equipment, etc.) the low-end is OK, too. I'm thinking it might be a bit of a mirror of the stock market: some folks are taking advantage of underpriced stock, while others are at that level of wealth that can weather the storm.

              I also think, tough as it may be, these corrections may be good for us all. I've been ranting for years about indiscriminate breeding by breeders who are clueless about how to develop or market their horses. Too many breeders don't do their homework--much in the same way that some home buyers haven't done their homework. Too many breeder breed what THEY like, rather than what there might be a market for.

              Granted, I acknowledge that some aren't capable of doing homework and, yes, get taken advantage of (like by trainers and other advisors with hidden agendas and a taste for other people's money). And yet again, I can see how this applies to both horses and the financial meltdown (housing in particular). I've been ranting about registries and inspections and stuff like that that simply don't add significant value to maybe as much as 80% of the animals inspected (or their get). For example, even before this crisis, the market for untrained animals was small, so investing in expensive registration of some kinds of stock (future geldings, the "WB" offspring of giveaway-type TB mares, no-man's-land crossbreds whose bloodlines are irrelevant in a market that primarily values performance not pedigree, etc., etc.) has been ridiculous, ego-driven and even inflationary (the overpricing syndrome).

              Anyway, the original question involved showing, but I hope y'all don't mind that I injected a bit about breeding into the mix. We are the suppliers of what you (exhibitors) demand. I wonder if those positioned to supply at the high end, where the demand is, will come out ahead now, unlike the proponents of that "middle market" which we've debated in the breeders forum.
              I agree that the current situation may effectively rid the market of "dead wood." I wonder if more show people will be inclined to invest in and bring along young prospects. It could be a way to economize a bit on a talented horse and also spend a couple of years focusing on training rather than showing a lot. Personally I have 4 that I am bringing along now and two babies on the way; it would cost a lot more to campaign just one of them on the circuit. Also, some of my trainer friends are experiencing a slowdown, and for people in that situation, it is more important than ever to diversify the services they offer. We could use some more talented baby starters ......
              Roseknoll Sporthorses
              www.roseknoll.net

              Comment


              • Originally posted by YankeeLawyer View Post
                I agree that the current situation may effectively rid the market of "dead wood." I wonder if more show people will be inclined to invest in and bring along young prospects. It could be a way to economize a bit on a talented horse and also spend a couple of years focusing on training rather than showing a lot. Personally I have 4 that I am bringing along now and two babies on the way; it would cost a lot more to campaign just one of them on the circuit. Also, some of my trainer friends are experiencing a slowdown, and for people in that situation, it is more important than ever to diversify the services they offer. We could use some more talented baby starters ......
                Actually I think we'll see fewer people wanting prospects/young horses, especially as investments. The downturn in the economy means that it is definitely a buyers' market and many, many nice made horses are going for a lot less than they would have a year or two ago. They are known quantities, many with good show records and right now, they're a bargain.

                Compare that to the risk of buying a young prospect and having to keep and train them til they are ready to show and what you have is basically an expensive horse on a payment plan... without any kind of guarantee of how they'll end up.

                If you have the facilities to bring one along at home, it may be more attractive, of course. In my area, many if not most show riders have to board, so the cost of keeping a young horse around til it is ready to show can be prohibitive. And few barns have the kinds of facilities that you'd ideally want for a young horse; fewer still have trainers who have the background and patience needed to start a youngster.

                I say this as the owner of a young horse (now 4) who I bought specifically to bring along slowly - but unless the market takes a decided upturn, I won't be buying any more any time soon.
                **********
                We move pretty fast for some rabid garden snails.
                -PaulaEdwina

                Comment


                • Originally posted by APirateLooksAtForty View Post
                  Sorry, I really did want to close it, but can't figure out how ...
                  thats because you can't. Only a mod can close it. And they usually won't if the only reason is it took a turn you didn't like.
                  "Perhaps the final test of anybody's love of dogs is their willingness to permit them to make a camping ground of the bed" -Henry T. Merwin

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Altitude Rider View Post
                    Showing, or even hauling out to school, is not in my budget right now.

                    IN FACT, I have only had sushi ONE time in the last month. I have cut all horse expenses except quality feed and vet bills (looking for a cute, single vet!!).

                    Where else is everyone cutting expenses??
                    The biggest area where I could cut expenses is my hay costs, which are very high. I did find a super farmer with excellent hay at great prices about an hour away, but have to figure out how to actually get it here (I don't have a truck). His delivery charges are ridiculously high (it would be about $500 to have any amount delivered) because he simply does not want to deliver. But if I could work out the logistics, my current $1200 a month for hay would be cut in half (yes, I realize that even a delivery fee of $500 would make sense if I bought a big quantity of hay, but right now I can only store 120 bales at a time).

                    We did not do any of the breed shows with the youngsters this year because I think they really don't add much value in terms of training or anything else given my particular goals, and unfortunately I had a lot of vet bills which made showing a lot less attractive. I make my own flyspray, which happens to save money, but I do it mostly to minimize the amount of chemicals used on my farm. All of my horses are on my vet's wellness plan, which saves a few hundred per year for each one on costs I would have incurred anyway.

                    My car is a very fuel-efficient compact car that my neighbors used to make fun of, but now are asking me what kind of MPG it gets. I also switched all my thermostats on the farm to digital, prgrammable ones, and set them so that the temp is 6 degrees higher during the day (while I am at work) in summer and 6 degrees lower in winter. That move alone has cut my electric bill literally in HALF; I was astonished. It saves about 2K per year.

                    I also recently remodeled my kitchen -- which was in dire need -- and did a lot of the work myself and installed energy-efficient appliances. And because my kitchen is now livable (and in fact really nice), I almost never eat out anymore, whereas previously I ate out 5 nights out of 7, at least. My favorite appliance is my rice cooker; I can make all kinds of things with that cheaply and quickly.
                    Roseknoll Sporthorses
                    www.roseknoll.net

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Lucassb View Post
                      Actually I think we'll see fewer people wanting prospects/young horses, especially as investments. The downturn in the economy means that it is definitely a buyers' market and many, many nice made horses are going for a lot less than they would have a year or two ago. They are known quantities, many with good show records and right now, they're a bargain.

                      Compare that to the risk of buying a young prospect and having to keep and train them til they are ready to show and what you have is basically an expensive horse on a payment plan... without any kind of guarantee of how they'll end up.

                      If you have the facilities to bring one along at home, it may be more attractive, of course. In my area, many if not most show riders have to board, so the cost of keeping a young horse around til it is ready to show can be prohibitive. And few barns have the kinds of facilities that you'd ideally want for a young horse; fewer still have trainers who have the background and patience needed to start a youngster.

                      I say this as the owner of a young horse (now 4) who I bought specifically to bring along slowly - but unless the market takes a decided upturn, I won't be buying any more any time soon.
                      I don't think there is a right answer to this; I just don't know. But I know from my perspective, I am not in a position to show full-time on the circuit right now. So the last thing I would be buying is a fancy made horse with a show record, to sit in my barn for the next two years or so. I would rather buy a youngster for less money and spend a smaller amount of money bringing them along for the near future, so that when the market does improve, either I will show the horse or sell him to someone who will. And during that time, I won't feel like I have talent wasting away in my barn, I will instead feel like I am moving towards my goals for that horse.

                      With respect to really young horses, I think that is a tougher issue. I have two very well bred ones on the way for next year (Stedinger x Hohenstein x Leibniz and Rousseau x Sandro Hit x Donnerhall). I have already received a number of serious inquiries from people whom I would consider to be dream buyers. They will be for sale but if ultimately no reasonable offers are forthcoming I will hold onto them for a few years and sell them at 3 when they are already started under saddle. My plans had always included the possibility that I might not be able to sell them right away. I will try to put a fair price on them but I am not giving them away.
                      Roseknoll Sporthorses
                      www.roseknoll.net

                      Comment


                      • Oh, I agree there is no one right answer.

                        Yankee, as I recall you have a farm (and a beautiful one, IIRC!) so keeping young horses at home probably makes a great deal more sense for you than it does for someone like me. The place I board my show horse is $1250 a month for basic board; while it has nice riding amenities (nice indoor, good footing etc) it would not be an ideal place for a youngster. Theres is nowhere near enough turnout for a young horse and the staff is used to mature, made horses. Not sure they'd have the patience for a baby. Thus my 4 year old lives in FL with another trainer - and at a much reduced cost. Still, by the time he is ready to march into the ammy ring... he will be a six figure project and then some. *sigh*
                        **********
                        We move pretty fast for some rabid garden snails.
                        -PaulaEdwina

                        Comment

                        • Original Poster

                          Hey Jaeger, they WILL if it's because the thred is no longer horse-related. See the mod's post above.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by APirateLooksAtForty View Post
                            Hey Jaeger, they WILL if it's because the thred is no longer horse-related. See the mod's post above.

                            Yes I saw it. A MOD can close it. YOU can't. You can ask them to close it, but the decision is theirs. It appears as though the thread is back on track and horse related. They won't close it just because it took a turn you didn't like.
                            And I can roll my eyes too.
                            "Perhaps the final test of anybody's love of dogs is their willingness to permit them to make a camping ground of the bed" -Henry T. Merwin

                            Comment

                            • Original Poster

                              Hmmm ... it appears you need things repeated. It wasn't a turn I didn't like, it was a turn that was not OT and not horse-related and thus against the COTH BB rules. Hope that finally sunk in.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by APirateLooksAtForty View Post
                                Hmmm ... it appears you need things repeated. It wasn't a turn I didn't like, it was a turn that was not OT and not horse-related and thus against the COTH BB rules. Hope that finally sunk in.
                                You guys, stop bickering. You made your point. Posters are trying to stay on topic. So what are your thoughts about ways horse people can economize and help make the sport more affordable?
                                Roseknoll Sporthorses
                                www.roseknoll.net

                                Comment


                                • Originally posted by Lucassb View Post
                                  Oh, I agree there is no one right answer.

                                  Yankee, as I recall you have a farm (and a beautiful one, IIRC!) so keeping young horses at home probably makes a great deal more sense for you than it does for someone like me. The place I board my show horse is $1250 a month for basic board; while it has nice riding amenities (nice indoor, good footing etc) it would not be an ideal place for a youngster. Theres is nowhere near enough turnout for a young horse and the staff is used to mature, made horses.
                                  I completely agree -- I should have mentioned the part about being able to keep the babies at home. In fact I bought my farm once I realized that my costs per month were about the same as renting a small apartment in DC and boarding (my then) two horses, without any of the tax advantages of owning.
                                  Roseknoll Sporthorses
                                  www.roseknoll.net

                                  Comment


                                  • Originally posted by APirateLooksAtForty View Post
                                    Hmmm ... it appears you need things repeated. It wasn't a turn I didn't like, it was a turn that was not OT and not horse-related and thus against the COTH BB rules. Hope that finally sunk in.
                                    You need some things repeated too. Apparently the mods didn't agree with you or the thread would be closed already. Hope that finally sunk in.

                                    Anyway......
                                    YL, I agree with the posters who said that the USEF/USHJA/whatever other body wants to jump in the mix of running horse shows needs to stop nickle and diming everybody to death with all these extra charges for this that and the other. I also agree with the posters who said that we (the generic we) horsepeople need to prioritize things. If you need to take out a home equity loan to buy a horse or to go horseshow then you need to rethink your priorities. As much as we all like to think that we "need" horses, they are a luxury and a want, not a need. We don't need to have 15 bridles, a set of turnouts, a set of stable blankets, a set of coolers, dress sheets etc. You can have a set of turnouts, a cooler and a bridle and make do.
                                    I think it is the mentality of "I have to have it NOW" and "keeping up with the Joneses" that has gotten many people into this mess.
                                    If people just learn to prioritize and to do without things that really aren't needed, it frees up money for lots of other things.
                                    There are things that we have no control over more or less, like gas, but there are other things that we can control.
                                    It will be interesting to see what happens, not just in the horse show world but in the "extracurricular activities" in general and how this all shakes out, contingent on what happens in the future. HR or not, the upcoming election will undoubtedly play a role, if only due to it's effect on the stock market/economy etc and the effect of that on people's individual financial situations.
                                    "Perhaps the final test of anybody's love of dogs is their willingness to permit them to make a camping ground of the bed" -Henry T. Merwin

                                    Comment

                                    • Original Poster

                                      Einstein, it became horse-related again, in case you didn't notice. Wow.

                                      For me, I'll be choosing a different winter circuit this year. Not sure which one yet, and not sure how else it will affect us, but that's one step I'll regrettably be taking.

                                      Comment


                                      • Starting next week we have two weeks of A shows here in Houston that usually have a pretty good turnout. So we shall see if most of the "regulars" come. Course the Economy in Texas is still pretty good.

                                        Comment


                                        • Well - for the time being I'll continue to show. I do about 20-22 A rated shows a hear - average about 2 per month with 2-3 horses. I have to work like a crazy person to pay for it - but I don't mind and for the time being my business has been solid. If that changes - my show schedule will most certainly change. The one thing I did do based on the economy was buy a trailer w/ living quarters. I cut down tremendously on shipping costs, hotel, food, etc - and it's already been well worth it. I don't enjoy driving my own rig 18 hours to Kentucky - however - the money saved is well worth it in the long run. I saved over $2500 in hotels alone there - not to mention food.....and love having my own little "pad" I can work out of. Save gas by not running back and forth to the hotel 3x a day to work.....and my gas prices hauling are still less than the shipping costs. That helps a lot but I also have the flexibility to allow me to be able to haul my own - which many people don't due to different jobs. I did decide to wait on buying a horse I REALLY wanted until one of mine gets sold as I didn't want to risk additional board/overhead.......but we'll see how things shake out. Our barn has discussed staying more regionally focused (we go out of state a lot).
                                          http://good-times.webshots.com/album/557433725gtOAuC

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