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One more The Economy and Horses thread ... affecting big time shows

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  • #21
    I'm selling everything that eats more than 2 qts of feed a day and wears shoes. Including children. But seriously, I just listed a bunch of stuff on craigslist because I'm too lazy to have a yard sale. You would not believe what people will buy cheap. I sold a broken riding mower, various power tools and implements, barely used toys, and other crap out of the garage and it went fast! Of course, I listed some horse items and have yet to get a nibble...
    Man plans. God laughs.

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    • #22
      Anything I've lost this week is in longer term accounts. So that won't affect my spending for 20+ years.

      However, just because I haven't been immediately hit doesn't mean I'm not going to make cut backs. I have a good amount of savings, but I tend to build that up even more during economic downturns. I don't think I'm in immediate danger of losing my job, but you never know.

      So I am going to be thinking more about whether I really want to do each horse show. And no more hitting the vendor booths at the shows I do attend! If I have to freeze my credit cards in a block of ice, I'm going to avoid impulse shopping!

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      • #23
        Originally posted by ef80 View Post
        A flight I took last year around Halloween to visit family cost me $375. Today, I can't find a flight between the same two airports for less than $710, most of them are running around $830.

        Exactly the price increases are ridiculous. People needing to fly for business or other obligations is quite a bit different than people choosing to fly for horseshowing.

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        • #24
          Originally posted by Jersey Fresh View Post
          I disagree. I think those people who are living within their means will be fine and continue to be able to show. Its those horse people who live way beyond their means who will be affected by this.
          Well, you could have been a horse owner living within your means, garnering a steady paycheck from Lehman Bros. Here's betting you are affected by this. And when AIG gets chopped up and sold, that means lost jobs, and a shaky scared economy generally means hiring freezes across the board and cutting back in corporations (just like individuals plan to do), so again, just because you are living within your means doesn't mean you can continue to show (or otherwise spend on non-essentials), it just means if Really Bad Shit happens, you have a better chance of not being completely ruined by it. Or maybe not. A lot of people who do everything right and live within their means can still end up completely screwed.

          Right now I'm holding my breathe on some of the otherwise healthy service sector companies who do a lot of short and long term investment in what are traditionally safe investment portfolios as a key part of their profit strategy. I'm personally most intersted in how the insurance sector weathers this storm.

          However right now I've got a 16 year old show horse and I already decided to partially retire him (he's done a grand total of 3 shows this year and that may be it) and my other one is a yearling, so he has 2 years of relatively cheap showing on the line, so I guess it is a good time to sit back, hunker down, spend less and remind myself that all this month's 401k money is buying stock low, and buying low is good, right?
          Your crazy is showing. You might want to tuck that back in.

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          • #25
            Originally posted by Jersey Fresh View Post
            I disagree. I think those people who are living within their means will be fine and continue to be able to show. Its those horse people who live way beyond their means who will be affected by this.
            I would think that the point is that for many people, their "means" will change. Especially if they worked for Leahman or AIG.
            Janet

            chief feeder and mucker for Music, Spy, Belle and Tiara. Someone else is now feeding and mucking for Chief and Brain (both foxhunting now).

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            • #26
              Well I am in a panic state. My husband and I were making a very good income for our area. Then in June my hours were cut to part time, and in July I'm effectively out of a job. At first it was an ok ... this will be for the best - I can take this time to spend more time with our daughter.

              I'm loving being a stay at home mom and spending time with our horse farm. We realize now we have to sell a bunch of our horses to make it through the winter AND we have to place the rescues - we can't afford to be the do-gooders of the neighborhood.

              Now ... I'm panicking. My husband has gone to a vanpool to limit our fuel expenses. But this was a tight moral choice several months ago. Now, I'm not sure if we can even live on one income with all the increased costs.

              Lessons have been reduced to weekly pony club meetings (paid for thru the fundraiser) and maybe one outside lesson a month. Shows ... well we may be able to afford one schooling show a month.

              AND ... we still have tons of repairs to do after the floods here last year. The barn has been rebuilt, but needs to be painted, the bedroom floor and carpet still has to be replaced. Both porches have to be rebuilt completely, there are holes in them that we carefully step over and one of the supports is leaning. Savings went to do the required repairs we've already made so we could move back into the house.

              Never mind ... blah blah blah. Done whining. We really want this to work; I had previously been homeschooling while working full time and putting my daughter first is the priorities we want. So ... we're now going to have to give up all the horses except her competition horse ... assuming of course we can.

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              • #27
                Have we ever had a period since the depression when so many white collar jobs were at risk? Here in Charlotte I work in Real Estate and know that a lot of the bankers - even at BoA and Wachovia - are a bit loath to commit to a new house due to the uncertainty. It seems like a lot of 6 figure jobs are ready to go poof. And when you look at the multiplier effect- wow. I think they said that every big time broker on Wall Street provided work for 3-4 service types- drivers, waiters, chefs etc.

                For so long it has been lower wage jobs being lost- and sadly- in boom times, they never recovered unless they got work in a new industry- they became a lot of the service industry reliant on the high wage earners.

                I don't know what the shows might look like- I'm thinking a pretty big chunk of people will no longer be showing. At all levels. Your super rich will always be out there. But people who actually relied on a paycheck (albeit a large one!) might pull back a lot- due to uncertainty.

                Although..... as I look at the real possibility of collecting unemployment soon, I might enjoy the extra time riding (not showing). I can see where someone who saved pretty well might find themselves unemployed and treat themselves to a winter at WEF. A lot of people losing jobs got paid really damn well, and worked too damn hard to spend much. A friend was saying that it isn't uncommon for some of the analysts to work their asses off for a few years, save, save and save, then quit and become ski bums for a while.

                I don't know- I try not to get freaked out. I like my job. Let's hope that all the new people BoA has acquired move to Charlotte, buy homes and keep me employed.

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                • #28
                  Heck yes, it will impact the industry as a whole.

                  It will impact people across the spectrum of wealth. Many Wallstreeters will be out of their jobs and for the lucky survivors.....do you think thier firms are going to pony up the huge bonuses? Hell no. Even if the company did well, the powers that be will shrink the bonus pool....because they know they can under the assumption that the survivors are lucky to even have jobs and there is going to be plenty of Wallstreet talent to replace the people who complain.

                  People will spend less on horses, lessons and showing if it risks their financial stability. People need to live within their means and quit trying to show the world that you're something you're not. I'd heard of one family that used their home equity to pay for darling daughters excessive show schedule and six-figure horse....Again that was before this mess blew up this week. The excessive need to acquire more and more is what has this country in the toilet.

                  The one ray of sunshine in this might be that the local shows gets stronger. In my area, there were a lot of people who took to traveling far distances for "big shows" that were living on fumes and credit card debt AND that was BEFORE this mess started.

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                  • #29
                    Oh, yeah, it's affecting me

                    I had to put my horse down very late last year, then had an injury that sidelined me until late July. So, my plan was to get going again, and begin looking for another horse in after the holidays. But now, I'm reconsidering. Given the price of hay, shavings, and everything else that contributes to a board bill, (and the fact that I don't own a place to keep a horse) I'm thinking I'm going to wait. Board everywhere is increasing so rapidly, so I'm thinking I'd rather half-lease something in the barn for a while, and wait and see what's going to happen. My job is secure, as is my home, but I'd like to keep it that way!
                    The truth is always in the middle.

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                    • #30
                      We have not yet begun to see the ripple effect of all this. That takes some time. Think about all the people that were associated with the big investment banks and the other companies that are in deep trouble - their incomes came indirectly from those companies - florists, caterers, temp agencies, Xerox, computer companies, custodial help, limo and car companies, travel agents, hotels, etc. That business is now gone or if still there, greatly reduced.

                      And what about the non-profits that were supported by these corporate giants. Lehman had a foundation that I believe last year gave away over $30M. That is now gone. And the ones that are still afloat are not going to have a lot of extra cash to hand out.

                      I think we are going to see a lot of bankruptcies in the retail sector as well, now that the credit lines have been turned off. We have started to see it already to a small degree, but in another 6-9 months I predict the attorneys will have more work than they can do. This is not just a middle class issue.

                      And this will go well beyond Wall Street and NYC in my opinion.

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                      • #31
                        I don't see this being any different then the dot.com burst or the S & L crisis. The economy will bounce back.

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                        • #32
                          I am wondering about businesses and class sponsorships?

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                          • #33
                            First of all, I feel the need to point out that middle class people cannot afford to send a horse to Florida for the circuit at all. A little gentle reminder of how lucky most of us are.

                            I think this will have some dramatic effects. A lot of people who last week had secure six figure jobs or who had six figures or more in investments just saw their world go poof.
                            If you are allergic to a thing, it is best not to put that thing in your mouth, particularly if the thing is cats. - Lemony Snicket

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                            • #34
                              Originally posted by Blinky View Post
                              I don't see this being any different then the dot.com burst or the S & L crisis. The economy will bounce back.
                              I see this as being different. This goes right to the core. This is people's homes and their way of life. As an above poster said, we haven't seen the half of it yet.

                              WaMu is a big employer in this area. They just put in a second building in downtown Seattle a couple of years ago. Our industry base is very deverse, but WaMu is a huge employer.

                              Horses are a true luxury item. There are some people that will maybe just go to less shows, but there are going to many people who scarifice in order to play in this sport who may not be able to keep their horse anymore at all.
                              The truth is always in the middle.

                              Comment


                              • #35
                                Friend of mine and I were talking today, she's one of the better-off clients in her barn and her showing normally shapes the majority of her barn's show season. In the past, if she and her daughter were the only ones that wanted to go to a particular show, the trainer would still go.

                                She had a sit-down yesterday from her trainer who told her that he wouldn't be able to do that for her anymore. Her options are to cheerlead and get more people to come along or she can haul herself and trainer-guy will make sure that one of his trainer-buddies who will be at those shows will take care of her and her daughter. They love the barn and trainer-guy so they're opting to simply relax and have a light-season.

                                Another friend is switching to Eventing - she hasn't had an event cost her more than $400. A week at a H/J show was running her $700-800.
                                Whee!

                                Comment


                                • #36
                                  You would think that the horse shows would lower the stall fees and get rid of some other "hassle" fees to attract more customers. <sigh>
                                  "Common sense is so rare nowadays, it should be classified as a super power."-Craig Bear Laubscher

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                                  • #37
                                    poltroon, a friend and I were talking about that sort of thing. We split it into the class of the "uber wealthy" and the "obscenely wealthy". The uber wealthy are more likely to go to WEF, and I'm guessing the uber wealthy might not be as impacted. The obscenely wealthy is more like the middle class of the top percentile if you will they can be found at HITS and Gulfport here on the east coast. I'm thinking more in that group might be scaling back a bit.

                                    Of course then there are the folks like me who have attended those shows and even done all of WEF here and there. But I'm in the minority in that I did it on a real shoestring and back before it got uber expensive.

                                    Blinky, I don't think anyone's saying that the economy won't bounce back, but that doesn't mean there still won't be a lot of pain until it does. I myself had a FUN time during the dot.com crisis, one I would not care to repeat. Ever. Now the S&L crisis technically got me out of a low paying racetrack job and ultimately sent me on my way to a higher paying gig (after I spent time doing FSLIC work shutting down S&Ls as a legal ass't).

                                    There's always winners and losers, but I have a feeling the tentacles of this particular incident are more pervasive than a sock puppet failure. Dot Coms made for good money but I don't think they were at the heart of so many long term "safe" investments quite like mortgage backed securities.
                                    Your crazy is showing. You might want to tuck that back in.

                                    Comment


                                    • #38
                                      Originally posted by Nikki^ View Post
                                      You would think that the horse shows would lower the stall fees and get rid of some other "hassle" fees to attract more customers. <sigh>
                                      I think this is where the class sponsors and businesses come in. Prize money may come down and less sponsors. Those funds are needed to even have a big horse show. Less people showing will increase the costs to the exhibitor.

                                      Comment


                                      • #39
                                        I'm not trying to lessen the situation. My point was that this happened to folks in the dot.com business. This happened to people effected by the S & l crisis. We had Black Monday in the 80's. The bubble always bursts eventually. I'm not saying stick your hand in the sand and spend, spend, spend..just that there is always an upturn after a down turn.

                                        Me-my husband works for the airlines so it's not like I don't watch the economy. We have cut back our spending. Drive older cars. Kept the small house vs going bigger. Shop at Kohls, etc.

                                        Back to HR I agree with the uber and obscenely wealthy catagories. I think even people in those catagries will cut back as their investments are making less money. The rich want to stay rich. The rest of us..we just go to less shows. Worse case scenario the horse goes to live in a small, backyard type barn for a while.

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                                        • #40
                                          This is very different from the S&L crisis and the dot.com bust.

                                          The dot.com bust was a much smaller bubble that, for all practical purposes, was limited to the tech industry. Yes, some people lost their jobs and reality crept back into the market but it was a small blip.

                                          The current crisis is much broader and is making some fundamental changes into our financial systems, globally. Credit, the way we all known it, will likely never be so free flowing ever again. That is not a bad thing IMHO.

                                          The investment banking world as we know it, for all practical purposes, is gone. What will emerge is yet to be seen. This will impact how companies will become public companies, how companies will get capital, financing, etc. These implications will impact most everyone, directly or indirectly.

                                          The government (the taxpayer) is bailing out these companies and someone is going to have to pay for it - higher taxes (probably), higher fees to banks for FDIC insurance (this will be passed on to the consumer you can be sure), and increased regulation (we always end up paying more when this happens).

                                          You may not think this will impact you but try to go out and get a car loan. Try to find money for college, try to get a small business loan for your company. The world has changed overnight. It won't go back to business as usual.

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