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Something to keep an eye on: the weather

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  • #41
    Obviously there can be no specific, accurate predictions for Tryon at this point in time.

    However, with Hurricanes come power outages, communication problems and difficulties in travel. If a specific area (say Tryon) does not experience flooding rains etc... there may still be serious logistical difficulties that come with evacuations from the coast, shortages of supplies due to flooding of roads, closures of airports etc..etc...etc...

    Hoping for the best, and really hoping that the WEG folks listen to NOAA and stay on top of the situation.


    • #42
      Well the models have shifted a bit to the north today, but they're all stalling it out. That's where the additional weather balloons are going to help.

      Florence looks like it has weakened a bit during the late afternoon/evening hours. Probably starting an eyewall replacement cycle. Some wind shear could come into play in about 2-3 days. No matter what, its going to be a big storm.

      And yet, I'm still heading to Tryon tomorrow. We'll see what happens.
      My May boys: Beau, Neon, Criss


      • #43
        It is folly not to recognize the real danger of mudslides and loss of power. The ground IN Tryon is already saturated. Trees will fall. When that happens no electricity. That means NO WATER. Those who are minimizing and listening to the "planners" stand to lose Everything.


        • #44
          The denial here is dangerous. As I said, I have been through many Hurricanes in my life. I provide a link which is a preparedness list formulated after Andrew. BEAR IN MIND that this is only a Household recommendation for the amount of water to stock in the event of loss of power. All Floridians know the old adage, "Hide from wind, RUN from water.". Every single available vessel should be filled. I say again, , this is only the amount of water for the people in a four person household. ADD HORSES TO THIS. Anecdotally, I have experienced much higher incidences of colic in hurricane events. There is no getting to a surgery center, folks.


          • #45
            Originally posted by fair judy View Post
            It is folly not to recognize the real danger of mudslides and loss of power. The ground IN Tryon is already saturated. Trees will fall. When that happens no electricity. That means NO WATER. Those who are minimizing and listening to the "planners" stand to lose Everything.
            I was at a driving trial a few miles from Tryon just this last weekend (and went over to TIEC to see what was what). The ground was anything BUT saturated. Some saturation would have been really nice.

            Your crazy is showing. You might want to tuck that back in.


            • #46
              Originally posted by DMK View Post

              I was at a driving trial a few miles from Tryon just this last weekend (and went over to TIEC to see what was what). The ground was anything BUT saturated. Some saturation would have been really nice.
              That is good news. I don't see how that reflects on the danger of flooding and mudslides other than to continue to minimize the danger. Please read the article posted. People went to dinner in what they as locals saw as a normal rain event......


              • #47
                right, but that "normal rainfall" was on top of weeks and weeks of heavy rainfall - it started raining in December and it just didn't quit until early June, it's been kind of ridiculous this year. Mind you flash flooding in this part of the Appalachians is always a concern with heavy rainfall, but you actually have to be near a creek for that concern to be realized!

                Don't get me wrong, I have a healthy respect for hurricanes, I still have "wind" PTSD from Andrew and decades in SFL. But after living 20 years up here, you start to understand how the Appalachians impact the weather patterns. Stuff that comes across Texas or the gulf splits left or right of them, stuff that comes from the east coast veers northward away from them. Not always, because hurricanes are inherently unpredictable, BUT heavy rainfall from a stalled system (like Houston last year) generally requires that the back half of the 'cane is still over warm water recharging which puts it pretty far from Tryon, especially if it lands over by OBX. And even if the outer bands reach Tryon that is a lot of land, including the northern mountains, to cross before the northern (wet) bands swing over it. That tends to knock the starch out of a system.

                And on that note, as of this morning, NOAA has Tryon at the 5% marginal for flash flooding and rainfall accumulations under 2"... Honestly, if WEG wasn't scheduled I would expect that Tryon would be a good evacuation option.

                Now the one thing that will be a mess is that TIEC still has SO MUCH uncovered dirt surrounding it, no mulch or grass, just delightful red clay. That's not gonna be pretty...
                Your crazy is showing. You might want to tuck that back in.


                • #48
                  Meterologists are now showing that a shift to the west today... It looks like it is going to hang out over NC.


                  • #49
                    Current Weather Channel forecast for the area actually shows sunshine for Friday and most of Saturday, with 60% chance of showers starting later in the day on Saturday. It would be fantastic if they could get XC in before any bands of storm/rain move that far west.


                    • #50
                      that would be awesome, when I looked at the weather yesterday it had the really awful combination of rain Friday night plus hot weather on Saturday.

                      Which was really annoying since everyone knows the two most pleasant days of the year are the day before and after the hurricane comes through...
                      Your crazy is showing. You might want to tuck that back in.


                      • #51
                        NOAA rates the risk of flash flooding at 5% - 10%.
                        That's marginal to slight.

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