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Something to keep an eye on: the weather

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  • #21
    At the volunteer training they told us the show goes on unless thunder and lightning show up. Just bring rain gear!!


    • #22
      The Weather Channel's famous jinx, Jim Cantore hasn't been located yet, but I'm sure he'll fly out soon to whatever place is going to get a direct hit. He certainly has a great instinct for where the action is. There is a FB page called where is Jim Cantore, but the one posting that says Wilmington doesn't look like him. There's still time for a jog in the path of the storm. Every one stay safe.

      The National Hurricane Center just issued the 8 p.m. EDT update and the center of the cone is on Wilmington, and Cat. 4, at 140 mph Thursday evening. Some think it might actually hit sooner.
      Last edited by JanM; Sep. 9, 2018, 09:18 PM.
      You can't fix stupid-Ron White


      • #23
        I just saw a weather report that says the latest prediction is for landfall late Thursday - maybe even Thursday night, from Myrtle Beach to Outer Banks. Most models show Florence taking a turn to the north, so it may run up along the coast, or may come a bit inland before turning.They are thinking it will track east of Charlotte. If so, TIEC area may get only 4-5 inches of rain, maybe mostly Friday into Saturday. That could make for some very soggy competition, esp. the outdoor events like dressage and eventing, Just hoping conditions don't become dangerous.


        • #24
          Originally posted by Tackpud View Post
          At the volunteer training they told us the show goes on unless thunder and lightning show up. Just bring rain gear!!
          What have they said about wind? That would be a concern for me.

          To quote Ron White, "it's not THAT the wind is blowing. It's WHAT the wind is blowing."


          • #25
            The winds of a hurricane weaken very quickly once they make landfall. It's the warm ocean water that powers them. Tryon is way too far inland to really be impacted by serious wind. The biggest worry would be rain.

            I've lived near the coast for years and weathered 2 hurricanes 100+ miles from the Gulf. Tryon is closer to 300 miles from the coast. I would be shocked if they got anything over 15mph for a very short period of time and only if the storm makes landfall in South Carolina or on the state line.

            The projected rainfall for the Tryon area looks like be anywhere from 1-4 inches depending on the model based on the images in this article:

            We'll know more by this time tomorrow of course.


            • #26
              Wxrisk on Facebook uses the EURO model and is pretty good at forecasting storms. Here's a video link from this morning explaining the two possible tracks. Tryon looks to get minor rain and wind, since it is likely to be on the far western edge of the track.


              • #27
                Originally posted by JanM View Post
                The Weather Channel's famous jinx, Jim Cantore hasn't been located yet, but I'm sure he'll fly out soon to whatever place is going to get a direct hit. He certainly has a great instinct for where the action is. There is a FB page called where is Jim Cantore, but the one posting that says Wilmington doesn't look like him. There's still time for a jog in the path of the storm. Every one stay safe.

                The National Hurricane Center just issued the 8 p.m. EDT update and the center of the cone is on Wilmington, and Cat. 4, at 140 mph Thursday evening. Some think it might actually hit sooner.
                According to our local meteorologist who is apparently friends with him, Jim Cantore is in Wrightsville Beach.

                If you want hurricane updates with lots of great info and the science behind what is happening and why, follow Brad Panovich Meteorologist on Facebook. He is the best.


                • #28
                  Florence is definitely strengthening. From a weather nerd perspective, it looks spectacular on satellite. There are some seriously cold cloud tops around the eye.

                  Timing wise, its a complicated situation. Florence has picked up some forward speed but the models are building a ridge over the Ohio Valley, which would reduce its forward speed. NWS is launching extra weather balloons (every 6 hours instead of the normal every 12 hours) over the entire eastern half of the US to get more data into the models and understand what the current situation is. NOAA Hurricane Hunters are already flying around the storm with a mission into it this morning. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had to do some scheduling adjustments but will be flying into the storm starting this afternoon.

                  I'm not worried about the winds. I'm more concerned about the rain. If it slows down, it could dump a lot more rain.
                  My May boys: Beau, Neon, Criss


                  • #29
                    And now they are thinking Florence may stall out when it gets over land. And dump several FEET of rain on coastal ares (which are already saturated from lots of rain in spring/early summer). Even areas west of Charlotte (such as the Tryon area) may get more rain than initially thought. Oy vay.


                    • #30
                      thanks LadyNeon. Maybe you could give us an update end of day today? hoping for the best for WEG. As a resident of SE PA, when they say 'stall out over Mid-Atlantic' it is looking grim
                      Forward...go forward


                      • #31
                        I grew up in eastern NC and my family is still there. We're thinking if this thing hits as a Cat 4 storm with 140 mph winds (Hazel was 130 mph) then our family beach house on Topsail may not make it. I'm supposed to fly into Charlotte on Wednesday from Colorado for WEG and Southwest has a travel alert for Wednesday that includes CLT.

                        I know where Tryon is geographically, but I also know the state very well and how hurricanes work. It all depends on where the storm hits the coast and tracks across the state and it's still too early to tell exactly what she is going to do. Tryon may not get TS force winds, but the outer bands of rain can be horrid, especially if the storm stalls.

                        I have to decide by tomorrow night if I cancel my plans and my family would all like me to do so. Even if my flight in on Wed and out on Mon aren't impacted, I don't want to be the person who flies into a disaster area simply because of vacation plans. I'm a walking Murphy's Law though. If I fly in, it will be worst case scenario. If I cancel, it will be a sunny day at TIEC.

                        I may take one for the team.
                        Dreaming in Color


                        • #32
                          With hurricanes, you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. That is why they have a cone of probability. It still looks like it's going more North but that could certainly change.

                          After dealing with the mess that was Hurricane Rita in 2005, I never call anything a sure bet until the basically the day of.

                          We could be dealing with a ton of rain or just scattered minor showers. Or we could be even luckier and just get mostly cloud cover, cooling it off for all the outdoor rings.


                          • #33

                            I just wrote on the other thread (grooms quarters) about how these things are so impossible to really predict. It could be a nothing burger that results in grey days that are cooler and that's all- or bucketing rain.

                            for now...

                            Hazardous Weather Outlook

                            Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 430 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-110830- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander- Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba- Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 430 AM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop across the area this afternoon and last through the evening hours. Any storms that do develop could contain frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Some isolated severe storms with damaging winds cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The track of Tropical Cyclone Florence will need to be closely monitored by interests across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia throughout the week. Some impact from this system in our area will be possible late in the week, perhaps from late Thursday through Saturday, but uncertainty remains too high to be specific about the exact impacts or precise timing. Please continue to follow the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.


                            • #34
                              There is no way this storm won't influence WEG on some level... it's just a matter of scale at this point. One of the big unknowns is going to be the evacuees from the coast... where will they all go - if they there is a significant influx into western NC. Hoping for the best for all......


                              • #35
                                I too am supposed to fly into Charlotte Thursday am, which I know will be cancelled. If they get the heavy rains and wind they are predicting, how is XC going to hold up? Not to mention some of the rings that are not covered?


                                • #36
                                  This is a serious storm. Video from satellite;

                                  Now CAT 4.

                                  NOAA Satellites;

                                  ... _. ._ .._. .._


                                  • #37
                                    If you don't want to read all of the info. scroll down to "Key Messages". The threat to inland areas is a big concern.


                                    • #38
                                      Yeah today's changes aren't for the better. I'm so glad I'm not going ( I never thought Tryon could do a good job at it from the jump).

                                      what an ordeal this will be for so many.


                                      • #39
                                        Originally posted by skydy View Post
                                        If you don't want to read all of the info. scroll down to "Key Messages". The threat to inland areas is a big concern.
                                        OMG, that's pretty ominous.


                                        • #40