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Something to keep an eye on: the weather

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  • Something to keep an eye on: the weather

    I was just reading the Tropical Headquarters forum of American Weather, the thread on Florence. Some discussion about whether Florence might hit the Carolinas.

  • #2
    NHC is saying that its way too early to say what the impacts could be to the U.S. East Coast. The models are all over the place once they get past day 5, so I agree with what NHC is saying.

    But since its the peak of hurricane season, its always good to be aware of what's out there.
    My May boys: Beau, Neon, Criss


    • #3
      Oh hell!

      Let's see, the universe so far has conspired against me going to WEG by: 1) husband's accident 2) my horse breaking my toe 3) now a HURRICANE????

      At least we are driving - we can get the heck out of Dodge if need be. Sigh! I so so SO need a vacation!


      • #4
        Each time the NHC updates their forecast discussion it looks a little more ominous...


        • #5
          This is a pretty good article going into how the models of potential hurricane tracks get more and more accurate as time progresses. There’s still a lot of variables, but I’d pack wellies if I was going!

          Last edited by WNT; Sep. 8, 2018, 01:04 PM. Reason: It helps to post the link...
          Leap, and the net will appear


          • #6
            Everything will continue as planned unless thunder and lightning according to what we were told at volunteer orientation today. Pack accordingly!!


            • #7
              It appears the East Coast along the Carolinas will be significantly impacted. The Weather Channel said very heavy rains will be moving inland. Sounds devastating and awful for everyone.


              • #8
                What about 70 mph winds and flooding? The roads probably cannot handle that or the parking in the fields.. What to do?
                Mai Tai aka Tyler RIP March 1994-December 2011
                Grief is the price we pay for love- Gretchen Jackson
                "And here she comes. Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's ZENYATTA!"


                • #9
                  Tryon is far enough inland that the winds won't be horrible but the rain could make a real mess. Especially for all the parking... volunteers and spectators are going to be in trouble parking in fields.


                  • #10
                    Does anybody know how heavy rains, and I am assuming there will be some winds, would affect the scheduled events? Would it be possible that things would get rescheduled? What about XC, although hopefully it would have moved thru by Saturday. I’m so bummed by the forecast but still going, just adding rain gear to the packing list.


                    • #11
                      Forecasters now saying a direct impact to the east coast is probable. They expect it to be a major hurricane. Keep your eyes on the forecast.
                      "We need a pinned ears icon." -MysticOakRanch


                      • #12
                        I purchased trip insurance through World Nomads, just in case. My policy fully covers non-refundable event tickets and weather-related trip interruptions. $140 for 2 people.
                        "Whether you think you can or think you can't, you are right." -Henry Ford


                        • #13
                          I live ten miles from the venue and have lived here for 21 years. When a hurricane hits the Carolina coasts, we can get some major rain. It usually comes in bands, most times without the lighting. Our area is usually the staging area for evacuee horses from the coast.
                          Parking in the fields might be a problem but- the general parking is on a hilly field with good drainage. As far as endurance goes- crews are working every day to keep the tracks wide open and clean. The trails in the area that are being used have been here for years. They are well maintained and the crews have widened them to over 50 feet so they should be safe. If we get high winds, that might cause some trees down which would be due to the torrential rains we have had all summer, not this particular storm.

                          Safety has always seemed to be a cornerstone of equestrian events and of TIEC since it's inception. I hope this storm is depleted before it gets to us but I think most people will enjoy the event
                          Maryanna Haymon- Marydell Farm - Home to Don Principe & Doctor Wendell MF
                          2012 USDF Champion Breeder! 2007, 2011 USEF Champ Breeder
                          2009,2010,2011 USDF Res Breeder of the Year!


                          • #14
                            Sunday AM forecast ---- Florence will become a hurricane today or tomorrow. Current forecast is that it will make landfall on Thursday night ---> Friday as a Category 3. As of now, it is aiming for S Carolina ---> Va, with NC right in the middle. Even more worrisome is that the Appalachian Mountains (which Tryon/Ashville back up to) tend to stop the forward direction of big storms, so that area gets even more rain than the rest of us will. (Says me, in SP,NC -- right in the path; I am 3 hours east of the Games)

                            I feel so bad for WEG. Here's hoping that the weather people got it wrong.
                            "He lives in a cocoon of solipsism"

                            Charles Krauthammer speaking about Trump


                            • #15
                              The 11:00 AM (EST) update from the National Hurricane Center, and the latest "spaghetti model" run... If I'm not mistaken the orange triangles are the Euro model, which generally seems to be the most accurate. That shows this thing coming right up through the middle of the state. Any COTHer meteorologists or weather aficionados out there to provide input?


                              • #16
                                Yeah, Tryon is right in the middle of that probability zone, but remember to read the possible tracks more like the second graphic and less like the first. It does sound like they are very concerned that it is going to have a lot of moisture and nowhere to go, so possibly a lot of rainfall inland.
                                If you are allergic to a thing, it is best not to put that thing in your mouth, particularly if the thing is cats. - Lemony Snicket


                                • #17
                                  Landfall has been bumped up to Thurs. Noonish instead of evening/night as previously reported. Chatter on weather sites says this could become a Cat 5 and stall around on land for a few days. Major flooding predicted.
                                  American has some good info.
                                  "There is no fundamental difference between man and animals in their ability to feel pleasure and pain, happiness, and misery." - Charles Darwin


                                  • #18
                                    Often after a hurricane hits and travels inland, tornados follow in it’s path.
                                    "You gave your life to become the person you are right now. Was it worth it?" Richard Bach


                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by Calhoun View Post
                                      Often after a hurricane hits and travels inland, tornados follow in it’s path.
                                      Since most tornadoes are in the front right quadrant, tornadoes usually precede the eye.


                                      • #20
                                        Hahaha Yaya you’re right,
                                        "You gave your life to become the person you are right now. Was it worth it?" Richard Bach