Sam Barr, founder of the famous Welton Stud, believes that a great challenge for the sport horse breeder is that the foal of the mare we breed today only reaches its prime 10 years from now.

If we think of 1996–10 years ago–we can see that Sam’s analysis is absolutely correct. In 1996 America’s premier event horse was Out And About, a galloping cross-country machine, with a bit more than a mild disdain for the confinements and constraints of the dressage phase. He won the individual bronze medal in the Atlanta Olympics and placed third the next year at the Badminton CCI**** (England).

But if a prospective breeder had used “Outie” as his desired prototype for the foal he was hoping to have reach its prime in 2006, he’d have missed getting it right in important details: No more classic format, a much reduced need for stamina and endurance, and greatly heightened requirements for obedient dressage and careful show jumping.

So now it’s 2006, and we’re breeding for 2016. What will eventing be like in 2016? What kind of horse will be needed to excel in a sport that could theoretically be as unlike the sport of 2006 as today’s sport is to 1996?

We have to look into a very murky crystal ball and take some semi-educated guesses, which may well be wrong!

Scenario No. 1: Eventing will go back to the long format of the ’70s, with an 18-mile second day, roads’ and tracks’ speeds of 240 meters per minute, a 5:30 steeplechase at 690 meters per minute, a 13-minute cross-country course at 570 meters per minute, a dressage test without tight serpentines and flying changes, and show jumping heights of 3’11”.

This will require the “old-fashioned,” galloping stayer. Molokai and Out And About are two relatively recent American Thorough-bred examples.

If you’ve ever seen old Paul Brown or Munnings prints, you’ve seen this stamp of horse. High withers, a long snakelike neck, a finely chiseled head full of quality, strong limbs, a lithe and limber athlete–full of “blood,” as the French say. If this horse were another species of animal, he’d be a panther or a leopard.

The day of these magnificent creatures is on the wane in this new version of eventing. They’re so often too hard to ride in the dressage, and they don’t always “rock back” and jump up over the show jumps.

For the pedigree, think the classic lines of Nasrullah, Ribot, Native Dancer, Hail To Reason and Northern Dancer.

I think going back to Scenario No. 1 is highly unlikely, but even more unlikely is my Scenario No. 2: Those who want the sport to be easier will totally prevail. Eventing becomes a sport for digital horses, competing over cross-country courses laid out on computer screens. You’ll have a little Eagle Lion, and your opponent will have a little Charisma. Someone else will have a digital Pippa Funnell riding Primmore’s Pride. It will be a very safe sport–with no chance of bad footing.

As I get older, this scenario grows in allure. No more 5 o’clock mornings, no more sleepless nights before cross-country. But no more wild post cross-country parties to celebrate the fact that you’re still alive. The trick for the breeder is how to produce little digital foals that will grow into half-hand-high superstars.

So here’s Scenario No. 3: Eventing will remain pretty much as it is in 2006. The dressage test will be something between third and fourth level, difficult for a super-fit Thoroughbred, but mild by pure dressage standards. The stadium jumping will be analogous to a moderate level 6 jumper course, with heights up to 4’3″; again, easy by jumper standards, but hard enough for tired event horses the day after cross-country.

The cross-country course will be about 4 miles long and will consist of rather technical complexes of big, often rather square or narrow-faced obstacles, which will require cleverness, agility and a degree of scope. Because the fences are jammed into a relatively short distance, horses have to sprint from complex to complex to avoid time penalties, slow down to negotiate the technical questions, then sprint to the next complex. The speed will probably remain at 570 meters per minute.

The optimal horse for this sport probably hasn’t yet been fully developed, because of the time lag between the emergence of the new format and the 10 to 15 years it takes breeders to “catch up.”

But I’m sure that pure, raw jumping ability will be needed. So will elastic dressage movement and the obedient, compliant attitude necessary to let the rider “get at” the talent. And the horse will have to have the ability to kick into overdrive between the complexes.

Some type of crossbred will be needed, either jumper-line warmbloods, like Quidam de Revel, Dobel’s Cento or Voltaire, or Irish Draught jumping lines like Clover Hill or King Of Diamonds, mixed with middle-distance Thoroughbred speedsters that can fly 5 furlongs in 58 seconds (more than 1,100 meters per minute).

The mix will be about 3�4 to 7�8 Thorough-bred, even 15�16, and the resultant horse will be slightly more “vertical” than the “horizontal” Paul Brown/Munnings print stamp of horses in Scenario No. 1.

Of course, there’s still a possible Scenario No. 4, in which the three phases of eventing become equally important. The dressage phase would become truly fourth level, or even higher, necessitating a horse tolerant of real collection. The show jumping might grow to a maximum of 4’6″. And the speeds and distances on cross-country might be further reduced.

If Scenario No. 4 should come about, I’d still think in terms of the mix described in No. 3, but with the Thoroughbred percentage dropping below 75 percent, perhaps even to as low as 50 percent.

There is a saying, “As the twig is bent, so grows the tree.” My personal prejudices for Scenario No. 1 are deeply rooted. I have scrapbooks full of clippings about Native Dancer from 1953. I rode in my first 100-mile trail ride in 1956. My first event, in 1962, was a full preliminary three-day event starting with steeplechase on the valley floor at the GMHA showgrounds in Woodstock, Vt., and climbing to the highest point of Morgan Hill. My love of speed, stamina and endurance, and the classic Thoroughbred, comes from a legacy that began more than half a century ago.

But I hope I’m not so prejudiced that I can’t learn to appreciate and admire this new type of three-day horse. I’m riding an Irish cross in my 45th season of eventing. I own an Irish stallion who has some Irish Draught blood, and I just bought two yearling warmblood fillies from grand prix jumping lines.

I’m trying to stay ahead of the curve. But the problem for me, and for all breeders, is that some variable that none of us can imagine or anticipate might sneak in. If that happens, I may yet retire to my computer terminal and hope that my little digital Victor Dakin can beat your little digital Bally Cor.