Asking an American rider or trainer whether this country’s sport horse breeders should be producing international-quality horses or horses for the masses of amateur and junior riders is like asking a politician how to solve the impending Social Security crisis. It depends on who’s most important to you.

Social Security confounds solution because the people drawing on it now won’t accept any change that means their check is smaller next month. And they vote. But if Social Security goes belly up in 25 or 50 years, those of us still around will surely vote against the bozos who let it run dry. Well, sport horse breeders have a similar dilemma.

Every mare owner who signs the FedEx ticket to receive an Equitainer dreams that this mating will produce an Olympic medalist or a World Champion. But the chances are only slightly better than winning the lottery. No, where you’re going to make money breeding horses in this country–if that’s even possible–is producing horses who can jump 3 feet or 3’3″ or perform at third or fourth level and who are dead quiet, honest and reliable. They’re the horses the vast majority of amateurs and juniors always want to have.

But if you’re trying to sell youngsters, it’s bloody hard to induce anyone to come and look unless you’ve produced a famous horse or two. Take the Canadian sire Cozy’s Commander. He produced hundreds of foals, but few people had heard of him until John Williams rode his son Carrick to top placings in four-star three-days and to fourth place in the 2002 World Championships. Breeder Doug Dean of Canada leads the current USEF eventing breeder standings exclusively because of Carrick and Zydeco, another four-star horse.

I was astounded to discover this week that 863 stallions are ranked in the USEF jumper standings and 1,229 stallions (!) are ranked on the dressage standings. So then I looked to see what level of horses had scored their points. The No. 1-ranked jumping sire as 2004 winds down is Indoctro, for whom 24 get have earned points. Only three compete in grand prix events (although none have won this year); the rest show in amateur, junior, children’s or “miscellaneous” classes. Similarly, the No. 1-ranked dressage sire is Weltmeyer, with 35 offspring. But only two of them show at Grand Prix, with another 10 at Prix St. Georges/Intermediaire I or II. Two-thirds are showing below the FEI level.

Here’s the breeders’ dilemma in a nutshell: The sires of all four horses on our about-to-be gold-medal Olympic show jumping team are in the top 20 (Guidam, sire of Authentic, is No. 2). But it’s not the same in dressage, perhaps partly for a statistical reason. Nevertheless, Rubinstein (sire of Relevant) is only No. 17 and Brentano II (sire of Brentina) is No. 88. Kennedy’s and Aragon’s sires aren’t in the top 350.

Breeders almost need to breed both international-quality horses and regular horses. For instance, one mating a year could be aimed at a superstar, with two or three others aimed for “steady Eddies.” And then they can wish upon a star that it works out that neatly.

Superstars can make a breeder’s name and gain respect. But what American riders and trainers buy every day are the safe, quiet jumpers and the willing, forward workers. People get a kick out of riding a horse related (even distantly) to Authentic or Aragon, but, honestly, 98 percent of us couldn’t or wouldn’t even want to try to ride Authentic or Aragon. Now, if only Authentic and Aragon had been bred here