Are your Rambos, insulated boots and snow shovels handy? The 2008 Farmers’ Almanac was released on Aug. 27, and the winter forecast suggests that these items will be in high demand if you live on the East Coast.

From the tip of Maine to the beaches of Miami, the Almanac calls for colder than average temperatures this winter—OK, if you live in South Florida you can eliminate the shovel from the list (at least we all hope!).

This year the Almanac predicts a “two-faced winter.” Those who reside west of the Mississippi River may experience milder weather throughout the winter, with near or below normal amounts of precipitation. So, if you haven’t made your plans yet for winter competitions, you might want to check out the Almanac before deciding whether to travel east or west.

Even if you’ve settled on your destination for winter 2008, you might find the Almanac useful for preparing your packing list. If you’ve never before included your super heavyweight turn-out for your southern trek, you might want to think about adding it to your trunk this year.

Established in 1818, the Farmers’ Almanac has been a staple for many generations who’ve relied on the long-range weather forecasts to decide everything from the spring planting schedule to weddings and vacations. I’ve even heard that some cattle breeders check the Almanac before deciding which weeks to schedule their calving. I wonder if horse breeders could find this useful? Think it’s coincidental that your mare always foals during the worst storm of the season?

The Almanac’s long-range weather forecasts are developed using a “top-secret” mathematical and astronomical formula employing sunspot activity, tidal action, the position of the earth and other factors. Even though the predictions are made two years in advance, the Almanac boasts an 80 to 85 percent rate of accuracy. That’s better than most 10-day forecasts around here!

Last year, an unexpected El Niño disrupted the Almanac’s prediction for a colder than average winter. Even though the season started out warmer than expected, the Almanac’s later predictions were right on target. Perhaps you remember the experiences of fighting the ice, snow and weeks of frozen water buckets while showing at the Barracks (Va.), Swan Lake (Pa.) or Old Salem (N.Y.)? Sorry, I didn’t mean to remind you!

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center actually contradicts the Almanac’s forecast for this winter, calling for above average temperatures over most of the country, with the East having below average precipitation. The Climate Prediction Center bases their information on statistical models.

There’s yet one more predictor of winter weather—the woolly bear caterpillar. According to folklore, the longer the middle brown band, the milder and shorter the coming winter; the shorter the brown band, the longer and more severe winter will be.

My 7-year-old son captured the season’s first woolly bear last weekend. As I peeked into his hand, I was surprised. This woolly bear was almost solid black, with just the hint of a brown band. Even though I’m still enjoying the last warm days of a waning summer, I’ve collected my clipper blades for resharpening and pulled out the wool coolers.

As we watched the caterpillar wiggle his way back into the woods, I realized that being fully prepared just isn’t going to happen, though. The weather is actually a lot like a horse—you can predict and plan all you like, but, in the end, you just can’t always be in control. So, what to believe? Only time will tell.

Tricia Booker