Four years of planning all comes down to two weeks for all seven FEI sports that are contested at the World Equestrian Games. The WEG is a showcase for all of horse sports, a place where the best of the best come together for bragging rights that last for four years.

The difference between the Olympic Games and the WEG is that the Olympics are played on a stage that’s much, much bigger than just the sport. The entire world watches the Olympics, and that elevates the stage to a different dimension. You can really feel that the Olympics are so much bigger than one sport or one country.

But the WEG is played in front of a very educated crowd, people who are passionate about horses and are usually very clearly fans of a particular country or rider. It’s that passion, that appreciation by the knowledgeable, that makes a WEG medal something competitors in all these disciplines really want. Team or individual honors will stay with you for the rest of your life, and no one can ever take them away.

For eventing competitors, the World Championship is also the technically hardest competition you’ll ever face. Historically, the WEG is the hardest cross-country course produced at an international championship. And rightfully so. It’s a championship that the sport totally controls, and it means more to the people who really know the sport.

I expect this to be one of the best WEGs ever. The Aachen organizers will do a fantastic job, and this will be the first time that the WEG has been held at a single venue that has experience running huge competitions. The last three WEGs have been held in venues that had to be specially made for them, and none of them could host all the championships at one place. It will be great to have the disciplines together in a fair-like atmosphere on a site that’s designed for equestrian competition.

Cross-Country Will Count The Most
This is supposed to be a prediction article, but I hate to predict outcomes. We were always taught, from a sport-psychology point of view, not to predict the outcome but to stay in the moment and control the performance that you can control.

The first thing I’ll predict is that the World Eventing Championships will not be a dressage competition. Everything that we’ve heard says that the cross-country course will be a true four-star championship effort. Even though the dressage is being contested at a high level and the show jumping will be big and tough, this competition will be decided by the cross-country performances.

And the organizers have also gone to extraordinary lengths to prepare the track. They removed all of the topsoil to put a road-type base underneath it, and then they put the topsoil back. They did this because it may rain heavily, so the drainage needed to be top-notch. I cannot recall an organizer ever putting that much effort and money into the footing.

I do not think that the course will be unfair or be as punishing on the horses as the course in Jerez was four years ago. Even though we won the gold medal there, it wasn’t a good day for the sport and not a pleasant experience to go through. I don’t believe the Aachen course will have the same feel.

But it will be big and challenging. Rudiger Schwartz is the course designer, and he designs good courses on the European continent. Plus, Michael Etherington-Smith, who designs the Rolex Kentucky course, is advising him, and I can’t believe, knowing those two, that they won’t produce a track that will be fascinating to ride and to watch.

U.S. Riders–Need An “Extra-Special Job”
Let’s start with the U.S. contingent. The squad, led by Kim Severson, has two of the horses and riders who were part of the gold-medal team four years ago in Spain. Kim and Amy Tryon have since been to the Olympics and continued their careers with Winsome Adante and Poggio, respectively.

But they’ll need to do an extra-special job to contest the medals this time. Our team does have talent, but we’re lacking the superstar horses right now. We can call it a transition time–or whatever you would like–but our only superstar horse is Winsome Adante. The others are good horses but not superstars.

That means the riders will have to step up their games and not leave any points on the table. They can’t let the competition come to them. Instead, they’ll have to produce their own “amazing ” performances.

This is a cohesive group, and it may just be that teamwork attitude that allows them to get a medal at this WEG. But I’m afraid I don’t believe that they’re going to be able to defend the gold medal we won together four years ago.

I believe that the team to beat is the Germans. These guys have exceptional riders and real superstar horses at the moment.

Historically, the Germans have always been strong in the dressage and then lost the competition from there, but they’ve made some changes in these past few years that have put them on top of the game. No. 1 was hiring Christopher Bartle of Great Britain as their coach. Chris is a very good horseman and a terrific guy. He competed in the 1984 Olympics in dressage and also won the Badminton CCI**** (England) in the ’90s. This man knows the game!

Chris has been quietly putting together the pieces of a top-notch German program for the past four or five years. They barely missed the team and individual gold medals in Athens–and only because of a freak mistake. Also, having your own four-star event (Luhm�hlen) always brings a boost to any program. It changes everyone’s understanding of what the top of the game is. Making Rolex Kentucky a four-star in 1998 brought us to a new level, and it’s happening in Germany now.

Germany’s leaders are Ingrid Klimke, who just finished second at Bad-minton, and also Frank Ostholt on the impressive Air Jordan, who together won Luhm�hlen. Both combinations’ dressage is very good, but this is being backed up with equally good performances on the cross-country and show jumping now.

People can say that the change in the sport’s format has allowed the Germans to flourish, but I don’t think that’s the case. They’re putting together a comprehensive program that’s producing fantastic results anywhere they go. I think they’re going to win this year and that for the next few championships they’re going to be the ones to beat.

Can The Aussies Change Their Luck?
The Australians are following closely behind Germany. You cannot dismiss the fact that Andrew Hoy is on a roll on several different horses after his wins at Rolex Kentucky and at Badminton in May, and Phillip Dutton on Connaught is backing him up.

Connaught certainly isn’t the easiest ride on cross-country, and I believe that will keep him out of the individual medals. But he’s a fantastic show jumper, which will be a big advantage on the third day.

The Aussies haven’t had much luck in the WEG–certainly not like their three Olympic team gold medals–but they may have the tools to contest for the gold medal this time. I think they’ll just miss, but their aggressive attitude will keep them right there, pressing the Germans to the finish.

I think that the bronze medal is going to be a fight between Great Britain, the United States, and maybe France. We haven’t heard a lot out of France lately, but the horses they had in Athens were not that old and could be a factor this time.

Great Britain is interesting right now. They have lost Pippa Funnell from the squad, and William Fox-Pitt has the ever-present Tamarillo, who can be a bit unreliable on the first day. Mary King is on their team, and there is no one with more experience and competitiveness than her. And Zara Phillips may have one of the best horses in the world in Toytown, but this will be her first big test on a team under extreme pressure.

Still, this is where I think the British team has a slight advantage on the U.S. team, but it’s so slight that the fortunes on the day are going to be the deciding factor. Team tactics should be decisive here.


It’s All Ingrid’s
I think Ingrid Klimke is going to win the individual gold medal in front of her home fans in Aachen. She’s been steadily getting better, and she has the legacy and the genes she inherited from her father, the legendary dressage gold medalist Dr. Reiner Klimke.

Ingrid’s Badminton success is going to provide her with a huge measure of confidence, and so I do believe that this may be her time.

Andrew Hoy is going to be right there too, and I think he’ll again bring home a silver medal. (He got the other one finishing right behind me at the 2000 Olympics.) I just have a hunch that for some reason Andrew isn’t going to walk away with the whole thing.

I believe Kim Severson and “Dan” are going to earn the bronze. They’re probably the best cross-country combination in the world, but, funnily enough, I think that Dan’s dressage, with his lack of suspension in his gaits, is going to be the decisive factor. Kim has trained him beautifully, and he’s seriously dependable, but because of his conformation he doesn’t have that natural suspension in his gaits you need to produce blowout scores on the first day.

This will be the slight edge that will allow the other two to slide in front of Kim, by 2 or 3 points. I know I said this won’t be a dressage competition, but the individual medalists are going to come out of the top three in the dressage. It will be that close.

So there you are. Nothing like sticking your neck out and making most people angry with you by reading the tea leaves!


David O’Connor won the individual gold medal at the 2000 Olympics on Custom Made and the team gold medal at the 2002 World Eventing Championships on Giltedge. He rode in four World Championships and two Olympics, and he’s now the president of the U.S. Equestrian Federation and the technical advisor for the Canadian team.