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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadie's mom View Post
    Oversimplifying I suppose, but doesn't the "law of averages" also play into this? I doubt Mandela (or many others) have ever had the number of horses in training that Baffert has. What other trainers have had 1, or 2 of, he's probably had multiple. No matter what we're talking about.
    We were talking about this at work yesterday. Ive been working there 12 years, and each year we have had at least 75 horses in training, some years over 100. We could come up with a single horse over that time that dropped dead like that, and it was walking in the barn when he keeled over. Before I started working there I had been training for about 30 years, having from 5 to 10 horses a year, and had one horse drop like that, walking back from the track after training. Im a little amazed that a single trainer would have that many horses drop dead in such a small space of time. The first would be shocking, after the second, I think Id be trying to figure out what was going on.


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  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by halo View Post
    We were talking about this at work yesterday. Ive been working there 12 years, and each year we have had at least 75 horses in training, some years over 100. We could come up with a single horse over that time that dropped dead like that, and it was walking in the barn when he keeled over. Before I started working there I had been training for about 30 years, having from 5 to 10 horses a year, and had one horse drop like that, walking back from the track after training. Im a little amazed that a single trainer would have that many horses drop dead in such a small space of time. The first would be shocking, after the second, I think Id be trying to figure out what was going on.
    Working where for 12 years? For Baffert? I'm not defending him, or really questioning you, but I know some years he's had several hundred horses in training. I have no idea what he's got now.
    "Everyone will start to cheer, when you put on your sailin shoes"-Lowell George

    What's the status on Tuco?



  3. #63
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    It's just the ones in California that are raising eyebrows. How many does Baffert have in California? Let's just say that he has 250, which given the national extent of his business would be more than reasonable, one would assume. If 5 of those 250 horses drop dead in a year, that's 2% of the horses that he trains in California. If none of his drop dead in any other state at similar rates, something is rotten in the State of California. Baffert is not likely to be running the cheap claimers at age 8 who have had their circulatory sytems affected by years of racing and having the stomach pounding away at the lungs.

    I also continue to think it's significant that the Japanese study cited on the Paulick Report is supposed to have found that 60% of sudden deaths from circulatory system events WORLDWIDE happen at California tracks; or if 60% was an error, someone else posted 20%. It's not just the Baffert horses; California horses drop dead at a much higher frequency than TBs in any other racing jurisdiction. What's so special about California horses?

    Toadie's Mom, I'm sorry but his drop dead percentage is comparatively ENORMOUS. Even if he has 400 horses training in California, that's a 1% drop dead rate.
    "I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay."
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  4. #64
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    Like I said, I'm surely oversimplifying things. Just one more stat to add to the equation.
    "Everyone will start to cheer, when you put on your sailin shoes"-Lowell George

    What's the status on Tuco?



  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laurierace View Post
    EPO thickens the blood, rat poison thins it. Hmmmm.
    Rat poison doesn't technically "thin" the blood, although many people say that. It is an anti-coagulant, so will prevent the formation of clots, but does not change the viscosity. EPO, on the other hand, will change viscosity (increase it) and increase blood pressure. So it wouldn't make sense if they are using warfarin, or something similar, to somehow try to negate the negative side-effects of EPO.


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  6. #66
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    Wait, how many horses does Baffert have in training across the country??



  7. #67
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    I have an old TB who came to me some years ago w/ a murmur and a-fib- but not found until he had a belly ache one day. Thankfully it did not impact his ability to do his (dressage) job. But as I read this stuff, I guess IF I were to do a study, I'd look at bloodlines, and see what, if any commonality existed. . Then I'd look at possibility of pre existing conditions, and then at what they injested,

    Yes, it seems California is jinxed or whatever, but considering that 90% of the West Coast racing scene is there, well...

    I have no opinion whatsoever on Baffert, but trying to be objective, I'd say there are lots of places and numbers to look BEFORE you focus on the person who is training multiple 100's of horses across the country.

    From my graduate school days: "You can make the numbers say whatever you want..." and sadly there is lots of truth in this statement.
    We don't get less brave; we get a bigger sense of self-preservation........


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  8. #68
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    Cardiac failure in Thoroughbred racehorses is a relatively rare occurrence, according to trainers and racetrack veterinarians. A study published in 2010 in the Equine Veterinary Journal on sudden death in racing Thoroughbreds found it was responsible for 9% of fatalities in California. This same study showed 96 reported sudden deaths between Feb. 1990 and Aug. 2008 in California among Thoroughbreds while they were exercising, or an average of five per year. During the 18-year period, a total of five were reported in Pennsylvania; 23 in Victoria, Australia; 16 in Sydney; four in Hong Kong; and none in Japan.
    From the most recent Bloodhorse story, which has been corrected but is at the same URL as in the first post.
    "I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay."
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  9. #69
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    I was also wondering if there's a common bloodline thread. But would guess the CHRB would have addressed that.
    Being right half the time beats being half-right all the time. Malcolm Forbes



  10. #70
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    I would imagine investigations are going on at many levels. As creepy as this sounds I wouldn't rule out someone "getting to" his horses. IF and that's a big if, Baffert were giving something to his horses to cause this he would have stopped with the first horse, not the 6th.



  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by SEPowell View Post
    I would imagine investigations are going on at many levels. As creepy as this sounds I wouldn't rule out someone "getting to" his horses. IF and that's a big if, Baffert were giving something to his horses to cause this he would have stopped with the first horse, not the 6th.
    Actually that's a very good point - have certainly seen that postulated before in other horse venues...
    Being right half the time beats being half-right all the time. Malcolm Forbes



  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by CVPeg View Post
    I was also wondering if there's a common bloodline thread. But would guess the CHRB would have addressed that.
    I wish I could remember more details, but a nice filly by the name of enduring knight died just past the wire at emerald years ago. I think it was due to aortic rupture and at the time it was noted that a coup,e of her close relatives had succumbed to the same thing. I wonder if the three from Baffert's owner, Kaleem Shah were related?

    This whole thing stinks to me.



  13. #73
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    Default Paulick Report now unsubstantiated by the CHRB

    The California Horse Racing Board said the number of non-musculoskeletal sudden deaths of horses in racing and training at California racetracks has not spiked, contrary to an article published in the Paulick Report Wednesday.
    CHRB commissioner Bo Derek repeated that information at Thursday’s board meeting, stating twice: “The number of sudden deaths has not spiked in California.”
    http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ra...equine-deaths/
    Being right half the time beats being half-right all the time. Malcolm Forbes



  14. #74
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    CHRB doesn't address the unusual numbers of sudden deaths at their tracks compared to other tracks. 0 in 18 years in Japan. More than twice as many as at Australian tracks. 4 in Hong Kong.

    Something is rotten in the State of California. CHRB is trying to push this under the rug--but that's pretty much their usual response. When a filly had to be put down for neurological EVH-1, their vet said EVH-1 is common at their tracks, so no need for precautions to keep it from spreading. I was shocked, since the EVH-1 scare was going on at the same time in Florida.
    "I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay."
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  15. #75
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    And a little more: http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ra...as-major-flaw/

    Why would you not cooperate?
    "Everyone will start to cheer, when you put on your sailin shoes"-Lowell George

    What's the status on Tuco?



  16. #76
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    Kentucky notes no spikes and no pronounced such deaths

    Dr. Mary Scollay, the KHRC’s equine medical director, said a quick check of The Jockey Club’s Equine Injury Database showed one each in racing in 2010 and 2011.

    She notes the numbers do not include any training-related deaths, which have not been a standard part of reporting for the database since it began five years ago.
    Cali clearly has cornered the US market on these fatal occurrences.



  17. #77
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    Bo Derek is president? I think I must be in the twilight zone.
    "All top hat and no canter". *Graureiter*


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  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gestalt View Post
    Bo Derek is president? I think I must be in the twilight zone.
    She was appointed to the seven-member California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) in July 2008 by then Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. That makes her a Commissioner, but I don't believe she is (nor is there a title of) "president" for the CHRB but there is a Chairman..

    Bo further chairs the Medication and Track Safety Committee. That's why her name is cited more in the press than say Chairman David Israel is.



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