GIANT FINISH: The last horse to enter the Derby picture just before the draw, this New York-bred has not faced top competition. His pressing, forward style likely will find him chasing quicker runners and giving way when the real running begins. Trainer Tony Dutrow said he would send an assistant down to saddle the horse. If the trainer’s not showing up, neither is my money.
The average odds of the last 20 Derby winners is 15-1, which puts Mylute (15-1) right in the sweet spot. But a close look at his record suggests that when he's faced tougher competition, he hasn't had enough to get to the winner's circle. His rider, Rosie Napravnik, the race's only female jockey, is a crowd favorite and will draw bettors. Without her aboard, Mylute would be a much bigger price.
Which means the Derby winner is: Itsmyluckyday
Yes, he will have to battle Orb. The last time these two contenders faced each other, Itsmyluckyday (15-1) lost by 2 3/4 lengths. But we think he has the goods. In his loss to Orb in the Florida Derby, he was coming off a two-month vacation. Itsmyluckyday's running style is to stay closer to the front, just behind the pacesetters. He is likely to make his move before Orb switches to a higher gear. And in terms of betting, would you rather go home with what 15-1 could buy you than what you get from 7-2? Steak dinner or Happy Meal? You choose.
According to the hour-by-hour forecast from The Weather Channel, the rain might relent for a while after it starts around noon, but not much. Radar depictions show a dense cover of rain moving slowly in a northeastern direction from the southwest. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low 60s.
Churchill track superintendent David Lehr sealed the track overnight.
Again: only 5 of the 19 runners in the Derby have ever raced on an off track: Revolutionary, Giant Finish, Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, and Vyjack.
So Glimmerglass, after maintaining this thread and keeping us all informed, you must have a favorite? I don't want to re-read the thread to discover if you have already indicated who you like, but can you tell us who is your pick to win?
Actually, it would be fun if we all picked. We can have our own Kentucky Derby online party.
Exactly what do you want? Racing thoroughbreds are reflective of the country's principles at large and we are in a transition period. Perhaps you might want to change the essential morality and focus of the country and then see animal husbandry improve for the greater good of all, not just a few of the super rich, the Sheikhs and their Wall Street, British Empire imitators.
For me, I am riding with Gary Stevens, the handsome Oxbow, and I can hardly believe it myself, but good old D Wayne who seems to have lost the support of the oil soaked crowd over the years, maybe his consumate horsemanship has become stronger as he has been somewhat humbled over the years. I have not read the stats, I have not read the workouts, I have not watched the horses progress as related in every detail that way, but this is my heart choice. Again, I can hardly believe I am saying this because, well, to be kind, D Wayne has not been someone who I have respected in the past.
Just finally caught up with the essence since I have been busy trying to get Glass-Steagall passed as federal legislation. Of course I would have to support a horse named Revolutionary but if he wins and Borel goes and poses proudly with Obama, all I would have to say is that his verve for photo ops would overpower whatever intellectual insight he may have gained in the last while. It is not a given that you have to be politically moronic to be a winning sport's figure, that is for you Calvin.
"We, too, will be remembered not for victories or defeats in battle or in politics, but for our contribution to the human spirit." JFK
Orb and Revolutionary. Really hoping for Orb, as his connections deserve it. I know that means nothing out on the track, but between that trainer/owners vs Pletcher the numbers man with Revolutionary, no contest whom I would rather see in the winner's circle. That said, I think Revolutionary has a great chance today, but also think Orb does, too. Those two would definitely be my top choices if I were at the track.
Thsi is going to be very interesting. I am THRILLED that Gary Stevens has come out of retirement!
Normandy Invasion is my Students Dutch Warmbloods name. He was foaled on D day. I guess it will be hard to root for a specific one. I am thrilled about Rosie riding.
"you can only ride the drama llama so hard before it decides to spit in your face." Caffeinated.