[starfish]

I agree about individual...but to me, this is the type you want on the team. You need the horses that will jump and finish on or close to their dressage score. No way we can compete if the Germans finish all their riders. MJ can have a stop xc and still beat most...and he rarely has one of those. But the US is more inconsistent in finishing all of its riders with no jump penalties....and even with her dressage, she will still have a good shot at being in the top 25--especially if xc is tough. That will help most teams. Also, this horse's dressage isn't that far off the mark...and I'd much rather put the resources into improving his (and her) dressage than roll the dice trying to get dressage horses to jump around a 4*.

The problem is - there is a difference between who I'd like to see representing various countries at the Olympics, who I'd like to see various national federations supporting/developing and who would be on a team I'd put together if the goal was to bring home medals.

For the Olympics, the problem, to my mind, is that each team gets 5 horses but only 3 of them count toward the team score. I think the format forces countries without multiple horses that can finish on a score in the low 40s to take some risks on horses that are not as solid on cross-country. By sending horses that are consistent XC but start day 2 with dressage scores in the mid-50s or higher, you are have to just hope that someone else screws up. It will work sometimes (see WEG 2010 & the Canadian Team) but not consistently, especially at the Olympics. And the Canadians weren't even in the mid-50s at WEG, one pair was in the mid-40s, and two in the very low 50s. The fourth was the drop score.

Take a look at the Team WEG scores:
http://www.alltechfeigames.com/ftp-pdf/EVE_RT_3.pdf

When I look at those scores, its very clear to me that you might be able to afford one horse in the mid-50s but that the rest need to be able to score in the low 40s in dressage.

As an aside, look at the German team score. If I recall correctly, Dirk Schrade had a fall at the second to last fence. I took a look at the FEI results database, and the horse has the occasional rail in show jump. So, if we give him a rail (4) and some time (say, 10 since he had 9.2 at his 4* prior to KY), the German team would have beaten the Brit team by 1.5 points and the next closest competitor (the Canadians) by 13.6pp. With two drop scores, the Germans will be that much more terrifying.

[JER]

I think that is the biggest problem for the US, riders we have over here, but only the top 10 have the proper supply concerning horses and those are just a step or two below world class, far to often very good next generation riders are a 1 horse wonder.

I think the US has some very good riders. However, I also think that many/most of them do not have the eye for a top horse.

There's a tendency toward compliant horses who get good dressage scores but don't have the temperament for CCI****. At CCI***, as long as the XC is not too testing, these horses are okay. But they don't have what it takes to be a consistent CCI**** horse.

The WFPs and Michael Jungs and Mary Kings know they can make the dressage on a horse, any horse. WFP has shown us many times that he can win a CCI**** on an average mover. But WFP and his equals know they can't win a CCI**** on a horse who doesn't have what it takes for XC.

[NCRider]

The thing is, I'd put money on three of the Germans finishing on their dressage score before I'd put money on two of Allison, Karen, tiana and Clark montgomery finishing on their dressage score. And even then, it's probably not enough if three Germans finish.

I would say out only real shot at a team medal would be to take the Canadian route from WEG but with only 3 of 5 counting its significantly harder at the Olympics.

Perhaps the strategy is to throw as many darts at an individual medal as possible and hope that the law of averages allows one of them to get around xc clean.

As for the Brits and their good dressage with average movers, it doesn't hurt to be Mary king or WFP.

[retreadeventer]

Colleen alluded to the US strategy in her interview. They are, by virtue of whom they already named, seeking to roll the dice on getting one, 2, or? 'Dressage' horses thru xc to show jumping. Risky strategy, long odds for reaching the podium but they must feel its their only option. Why the hell they didn't put more training into the Cross-country machines the past 2winter training sessions beats me. Less risk, better chance of team survival to the stadium on the last day....

[NCRider]

That's the thing, though. Our "dressage horses" aren't as good as their dressage horses. Our only shot is if they screw up. But the odds are, if the course is hard enough that they screw up, it will catch out our bunch even more. I mean, as lovely as he is and as awesome as PD is, there's no guarantee that even PD will get mystery whisper around a four star close to the time. Can you imagine the disaster it would be if Neville was the only clear xc? If it's even Neville. With the emphasis on trying to out dressage the Germans, they could choose Otis or Remi.

I miss this being a sport about jumping and bravery and the look of eagles. If there's no reward in it, will we see horses like poggio, neville, or Shiraz in the future, or will the riders good enough to ride them not bother because they'll never score over 75% in the dressage.

As an example of how ridiculous the dressage scores required to succeed in eventing are, I'd urge everyone to check out the pure dressage selection trials scores. If riders scoring under 70% are considered elite in pure dressage it really bother me that we're rewarding every point better than that at a rate of 1.5 to 1 . Maybe we need to deduct points for going clear within the time? Maybe we need to set a minimum dressage score (like the equivalent of 67%) so that there's no incentive to try to take the next Totilas eventing and pray he makes it aound xc without hurting himself or his rider.

It makes me sad that a rider like Colleen with a horse like Shiraz who embodies all that evening is supposed to be about, is so far from the modern ideal of a US short lister that TPTB can't even be bothered with keeping an eye on them. How screwy is that?

[tuppysmom]

Hence why my DD is in Germany working hard, riding their **** horses and learning the "system".

[vineyridge]

The obvious answer is to get rid of the dressage coefficient.

If the extra dressage penalty points can change six of the top ten in a 4* event, dressage is weighted too heavily in these days of short format.

[Gnep]

Hence why my DD is in Germany working hard, riding their **** horses and learning the "system".

That is one of the smartes moves in a long time of any US rider.
Instead of complayning how tough it is, invest the money and learn.

I can only congratulate you guys for your guts to do it.

[Gnep]

The obvious answer is to get rid of the dressage coefficient.

If the extra dressage penalty points can change six of the top ten in a 4* event, dressage is weighted too heavily in these days of short format.

Even if you get rid of the dressage coefficient, to be in the top fife, or even win, you have to be able to finish on your dressage score or well do not add more than 4 points.
Thats how good the top 10 riders and top 20 horses are.
If you aint in the top 5 after dressage, or top 10, within 4 to 8 points of the leader you do not have a chance.

[Wits End Eventing]

I have compiled a lot of statistics on 4* horses, their finishes, and pedigrees (including %TB and height) in order to improve our breeding program. I have data for all 4* events from 2006-2011 plus Rolex 2012.

Even if you get rid of the dressage coefficient, to be in the top fife, or even win, you have to be able to finish on your dressage score or well do not add more than 4 points.
Thats how good the top 10 riders and top 20 horses are.

This I agree with. Jumping clean is still the essence of our sport! The average total XC and stadium penalties added for winners is only 3.55, top 5 average is 5.64, top 10 is 8.56

If you aint in the top 5 after dressage, or top 10, within 4 to 8 points of the leader you do not have a chance.

The statistics don't bear this out.

Only 57% of top 10 finishers and 41% of top 5 finishers are in the top 5 after dressage. To put it another way, 59% of top 5 finishers and 43% of top 10 finishers ARE NOT in the top 5 after Dressage. If you look at top 10 after dressage, only 50% stay in the top 10 at the end.

The rider in 1st after Dressage has only won 16% of the time and only stays in the top 5 44% of the time.

Now of the riders in the top 5 after XC, 91% finish in the top 10 and 70% finish in the top 5. The rider in 1st after XC has won 58% of the time.

Amazingly 100% of the finishers in the top 5 after Stadium are in the final top 5

So, Dressage competition? Or 3 day event?

[vineyridge]

I'm not saying that the good dressage riders won't go into XC with a better than average chance of finishing in the top ten. What I am saying is that the extra dressage penalty points from the coefficient do make a huge difference in the placings. Without them Lucinda Fredericks would have finished 5th at this luhmuhlen instead of second. Sam Griffiths and Happy Time would have won Badminton last year instead of Mark Todd and Landvision.

The Badminton result is actually the one in the last two years where the coefficient determined the winner; but it does regularly affect the top ten placings. Then there is usually a group just below the top ten who are not affected; then another larger group in the high 50s/low 60s whose placings are affected. In the basement, the bad horses in that competition are not affected.

The most prevalent place where the dressage coefficient penalty points determine placings is in the top ten. Have a super dressage ride, and you can have a slower XC and a few more stadium rails. Heck, in one event, a horse who had a run out in XC still managed to place in the top ten because of a superior dressage performance.

[Wellspotted]

Anyone else find it ironic that Jeep sponsors an event in Germany and Land Rover sponsors one in the US?

I do. But no more so than athletes who live in one country where they train with a coach from another country and then compete for a third country (their birthplace).

[Wellspotted]

Of course I've also made photos of Marius' impressive retirement ceremony:
http://eventing-art.com/nggallery/po...15/gallery-46/

Danke vielmals, eventingART. Ich kenne nicht viel Deutsch aber es freut mich sehr ... that you posted these lovely photos. I became such a fan of Marius and Hinrich four years ago and was starting to wonder about this year.

This is a lovely photo show. Thanks for sharing them.