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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec. 14, 2007
    Location
    Wilsonville, Ontario, CANADA
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    4,452

    Default "The 2YO Death Spiral" - is this happening with WB breeding too?

    http://performancegenetics.com/2012/...-death-spiral/

    Are we going to see the fallout of lower birth numbers today, in the show ring - 3-5-7-10 years down the road?

    And will that lead to cancellation of classes and shows and abating sponsorship interest as the numbers decline? And LESS money for horses on the ground as the available shows and classes dwindle for them???

    Interesting food for thought ...



  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan. 20, 2011
    Location
    Grand Island, Nebraska
    Posts
    226

    Default

    VERY interesting article.. Seems very contradictory to what most of us believe.... Definitely Food for Thought



  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan. 2, 2006
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    2,189

    Default

    Interesting proposition TCF.

    Will we see less horses in the showring? I doubt it. You could argue that they might not be same quality (as breeding gets divided into two camps, those who can afford to do it and those who can't but will carry on anyway) but I don't see a shortage of horses being a problem. We'll just see classes full of OTTB's, Mustangs and Mutts and that's not necessarily a bad thing.

    It appears that the article thinks that contraction of the racing industry is a bad thing, which it is if you are in it, but that's true for all industries in difficult economic times. Adapt and survive or go under. That will mean breeding less horses and those that are bred go into competition. Maybe the public would support racing of older horses, or over fences, or....



  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov. 28, 2003
    Location
    MO
    Posts
    4,582

    Default

    Just yesterday I read an interesting tidbit, along the same lines, in the Quarter Horse Journal. They were looking at specifically show-bred horses (as opposed to ranch type horses, etc), defined as foals by a stallion who has earned or sired at least one foal earning one AQHA point. For those breedings there has been a 71 percent decrease from 2004 to 2010. However, AQHA show entries have stayed basically stable over those same years. They are now seeing that the deman for those types of horses is exceeding the supply and their suggestion was that prices of available foals with that type of breeding will rise over the next few years, as demand outstrips supply. I found it quite interesting.
    Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
    --Winston Churchill
    https://www.facebook.com/pages/Hills...h/112931293227
    www.HillsideHRanch.com



  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan. 15, 2004
    Location
    Lancaster, PA, USA
    Posts
    7,619

    Default

    I see it more like the stock market...the industry will have its ups and downs. in a bad economy the folks buying horses are down so they breedings are down. When the economy picks up so will the breedings. A downturn is not a death knell. I sold no horses in 2009...sales dead as a doornail. Not even a tirekicker. End of 2010 sold one. 2011 3 horses found new homes. So far in 2011 have sold one already....so I thinks things ARE picking up. As to show entries being down....just like the horse sales....this is probably a product of the bad economy....folks just could not afford to show as much. Showing will probably increase as the economy improves.



  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jul. 29, 2007
    Posts
    57

    Default

    I don't think their will be a huge decrease - things in some areas are already picking up as far as sales, breeding's and show size. The past two years for us were a bust but things really started picking up as far as sales in fall of 2011 and have been looking good for the future and hoping they stay that way. Plus all the people that have been holding the market with breeding will hopefully make a booming once things really pick up because so many couldn't hold out unfortunately which is so sad to see.



  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec. 27, 2006
    Location
    Western NY
    Posts
    1,755

    Default

    One BIG difference between the show and race industries is that in racing most horses are in age restricted races and rarely race past 3 or 4 years (also true of QH futurities). A show horse OTOH can easily show for 10+ years is properly managed. So even though there are fewer being bred for now, the ones that are around can keep going until more are bred if it comes to that.

    Christa



  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr. 4, 2006
    Location
    An American Living In Ireland
    Posts
    5,658

    Default

    I read that article a few days ago and made reference to it in another post. Interesting the facts on 2yo's racing. But we'll save that for another time.

    Yes people have cut back on breeding and they sure needed to. Not just racehorses, every discipline. Things will probably get better in the next couple of years as there will be less out there. So good prices will be had on good horses. The exceptional price horses hasn't really fallen off, it's the middle Market that was hurt the most. Look it I watched a TB sale here a couple of days ago. Results were ridiculous. The amount of under 5k horses and vendor buy backs were scary. But one horse with an exceptional pedigree made 500k so they chose to focus on how "good" the sale was. In TB's last year yearling sales were not great, good money for exceptional horses but not the kind of Market we had 6 years ago. Then what happens foals and mares went like hotcakes a few weeks later. One thing I always remember someone telling me and it holds true, for racing anyway. For every one foal there are 10 buyers. For every 10 yearlings there one buyer of one. Never truer words if you want to be pinhooking.

    Racing will survive.

    Terri
    COTH, keeping popcorn growers in business for years.

    "I need your grace to remind me to find my own." Snow Patrol-Chasing Cars. This line reminds me why I have horses.



  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct. 27, 2010
    Location
    Nevada
    Posts
    2,561

    Default

    Looking at stallion breeding reports in the stockhorse breeds as well as registration numbers in breeds such as Morgans and Arabs, there has been drastic cut backs by breeders, many of whom have just given up and gone out of business. The numbers range from 76% fewer mares in Paints than 10 years ago, 100,000 fewer QH mares on stallion breeding reports than 10 years ago, less than 5000 Arabs registered a year in recent years. This has had NO impact as yet on the numbers of horses going to slaughter (which is where the big cry for breeder cutbacks has come from....those opposed to slaughter) but is beginning to be felt in age related events such as pleasure and performance futurities. The sad thing is that in at least some cases valued bloodlines have been lost as well as breeders sell of their breeding stock and entire programs that have existed for decades are dismantled. The will likely be a stronger impact felt over the next several years and those who manage to stay in business with good stock will see prices go up. In some areas it has always been a somewhat deep pockets game....and that is likely to continue with the middle and lower end buyer priced out of higher quality horses.
    Colored Cowhorse Ranch
    www.coloredcowhorseranch.com
    Northern NV



  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan. 15, 2008
    Location
    Chapel Hill and Southern Pines, North Carolina
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    2,420

    Default

    With all due respect ...the origin of this piece of "research" appears to be selling something while there may well be a drop off in numbers (and frankly what is wrong with THAT? The TB rescues are filled to the brim)....a (poorly edited) piece hinting at "genetic" issues from "Performance Genetics"?

    Pfui. In my medical journal club, that paper would go bye bye
    "Her life was okay. Sometimes she wished she were sleeping with the right man instead of with her dog, but she never felt she was sleeping with the wrong dog."



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