[BAC]

I am of the opinion that a sale today for X amount of money is better then a hoped for sale of >X sometime in the future.

I agree.

[smid2]

Ok, I posted this on another thread where you posted a picture of Carson, but I'll post it here as you're more likely to see it. I was wondering what Carson's breeding is? He looks EXACTLY like my gelding, and I do mean EXACTLY, almost down to the marking on his forehead. Sounds just like him too. I saw the picture and about dropped my mug of tea.

[Tiffani B]

My Carson? He's a Saddlebred by General Steel. The white on his head is actually a scar, not a marking. It comes and goes depending on how long his winter coat is.

Do you have a pic of your horse?

[smid2]

Oh, gosh sorry about the confusion! I meant Punkie's Carson. She posted a picture of him on the grooming thread. Guess that's what I get for being vague! But your Carson is definitely a looker too!

Here are pictures of Watson though. I swear he could be Punkie's Carson's doppleganger or something.

Confo
Head Shot

[findeight]

This horse that is not that attractive and not that well conformed will pay for your condo in BOSTON with just a few months in the PG.

Where are you finding buyers at 200k plus for a Pre Green that is not at all fancy? Send some my way. Don't have anything I care to sell but I can find something for that.

[Tiffani B]

LOL! And here I thought Carson was an unusual name for a horse!

[SEPowell]

You better sell him before the person who made the offer reads this thread!

[Peggy]

If you bought him to sell, sell now. That would likely be my advice even in a better economy.

Another cautionary tale. A friend (a professional) turned down well over $100K for a dressage horse that he got on some sort of trade for something he bred. In other words, his investment wasn't huge. This was 12 or so years ago. He wanted his wife to do the Pan Ams on the horse. Horse went lame within months, couldn't be fixed at the time, he spent 3 or so years in the broodmare pasture hanging out, eventually got serviceably sound and he sold him as a first-level schoolmaster for low 5-figures, IIRC.

[DiablosHalo]

Didn't read the replies...didn't need to... SELL THE HORSE!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is now inevitable- if you don't sell, he'll go lame next week.

[DallasES]

I agree...sell! Think of all the nice green horses you can buy with the money to develop and sell as well...

[Ibex]

Sell

[Punkie]

Entries at WEF are down about 30% so far. Pre Greens used to be 3 or even 4 sections-down to ONE. I heard Thermal was waaaay down. Ocala is healthy but also down in numbers.

Let me ask you this...does your trainer routinely sell for near 6 figures which it sounds like what "7 times the purchase price" would be? Are people looking for him/her when they want to buy a horse like this? Are the AAs you are contemplating major circuits like the KHP shows where "everybody" (more or less) hits at least some of them?

Have you even taken him to a show yet? A rated one? I know, you love him, but the reality is we can all be a little barn blind and overpricing one in this market is a total, disastrous mistake.

Seems like there is alot of speculation...if, if, if, if, that you are accepting as absolutes. He will win alot. He will stay sound. And the biggie-somebody will want to pay 7 times that purchase price at the exact time you decide-after he wins all summer-to sell him.

You are assuming too much. And don't know why your trainer is in the same sentence as the term "investment portfolio". You trainer is not a disinterested and neutral advisor but somebody making money off you keeping the horse and the future, bigger commision.

Sorry, but my answer is to get a little more realistic about being able to sell him for 7 times the purchase price at the precise moment you chose to do so. In 8 months. And don't depend on somebody making money off your decision to keep for advice, even if they are honest and ethical, they are not neutral and benefit more if you keep him.

Your "facts" are skewed so cannot say whether you should sell him now for the known amount or take a crap shoot on the future in a deteriorating economy.

We go to all the big A shows on the East Coast (WEF, Lake Placid, Vermont, HITS (Saugerties and Culpepper), Capital Challenge, etc. etc. etc.), and most everything that has sold in the last year or is currently for sale is in the very high 5, low 6 range.

I am good friends with a few trainers who have no stock in this horse but a lot of experience/contacts, and I've consistantly recieved the same opinion on him, so that does make me feel a little bit better! Quite honestly, I thought that I was biased towards him and my trainer was as well when we purchased him, but I guess not. Or there are 6 different (well-known) professionals who are...either way :Lol:

I am boarded between 2 trainers who have no affiliation (with the exception of being old acquaintences) and the trainer he is with now is the one that was approached by the potential buyer. If he doesn't sell/I chose not to sell him, he'll be moving to my other trainer's in a matter of weeks (about 60 miles closer to home/work). I sat down and went over the the projected expenditures with this trainer (who will neither benifit from showing or boarding him if he doesn't sell) because I wanted to get a good idea of how much has been put out and how much would be put out if I were to keep him.

I have no assumptions that he WILL sell for what we intend to market him for at the end of the show season, just that if he has been successful, we will slap a price tag on him, let people know he's on the market for x amount of dollars and let him ride for awhile. If we get it, we get it, I suppose.

I think where I'm coming from on this is that in 2006, I bought an investment horses for very low five figures and sold him for mid five figures. Less than a year and maybe 4 big shows later, the new owners recieved an offer for almost 4 times what THEY paid for him (I only know this because their trainer had been a student of my trainer at the time and had called her for advice as to whether or not to sell the horse). The turned it down and continued on with him. He's now a Big Eq. horse and had an incredibly successful 2008 season. The worst part is, they would've just as happily leased him as purchased him. So as risky as that "what if" is, that's where my head keeps going back to.

This horse that is not that attractive and not that well conformed will pay for your condo in BOSTON with just a few months in the PG.

Where are you finding buyers at 200k plus for a Pre Green that is not at all fancy? Send some my way. Don't have anything I care to sell but I can find something for that.

He's fancy as hell when he's under tack, jumps the crap out of a fence from any distance, 10 trot, 20 canter, but just is plain on the ground (could be simd2's horse's twin, except he's thicker. Same face, though) As his trainer says "Mr. P got the looks (my Hano) and Mr. C got the real talent". So nope, not definitely not 200K+, but both of my trainers (two seperate facilities and while they are acquainted, one - as I said - has absolutely no stock in the sale of this horse) believe that he will sell in this particular price range. I already own a condo, but there's this little thing called a mortgage that could use paying off

I don't think anything junky would sell for what we've been offered (unsolicited...we hadn't even decided to put him on the market yet) in the first place, either, but that's JMHO.

[DallasES]

It sounds like you have already made up your mind not to sell...?

[Punkie]

It sounds like you have already made up your mind not to sell...?

No, definitely not. I'm actually leaning more towards selling (I have been looking at photos of my old jumpers and thinking how much I want another one, lol), but I still have until Wednesday to decide.

[findeight]

Ok. You did not really explain alot and had to go pretty general.

But one thing here. You STILL made money, alot, on the one you bought and sold in 2006.

Two other things, that was then, this is now.
Second thing. Do you watch a certain financial news channel with a rather flamboyent personality who has a show on in the evening?

It is a very old saying but, as he says, "Bulls get fat (rich). Bears get fat (rich). Pigs get slaughtered". Have to say I have found this helpful with stock options and profit sharing and learned about setting limits. Did MUCH better then co workers.

So, are you hoping to get fat at the risk of getting slaughtered?

I tried to get fat years ago with a QH that was a regional champion. I thought I could get more. I got slaughtered. Never again.

If you can survive getting slaughtered so to speak? Train him up and see what happens...but beware whatever market there is dries up.

[Jo]

You could always tell them he is for sale for the price they offered plus an additional percentage if it would make it more worth your while... If they turn it down, you could keep him for sale at X + % price, raising as his show experience warrants.

[Giddy-up]

I think where I'm coming from on this is that in 2006, I bought an investment horses for very low five figures and sold him for mid five figures. Less than a year and maybe 4 big shows later, the new owners recieved an offer for almost 4 times what THEY paid for him (I only know this because their trainer had been a student of my trainer at the time and had called her for advice as to whether or not to sell the horse). The turned it down and continued on with him. He's now a Big Eq. horse and had an incredibly successful 2008 season. The worst part is, they would've just as happily leased him as purchased him. So as risky as that "what if" is, that's where my head keeps going back to.

You have to think about the "now" if you are selling. Sell the horse for an amount that you are happy & can live with. If somebody later down the road (whether it be weeks/month/years) gets some crazy big offer, then so be it. Yay for them the stars & moons aligned, but remember that you got the amount YOU were happy with.

[ExJumper]

Any time we sell a green horse (or ANY horse that hasn't already peaked at whatever discipline he is in) you have to be able to deal with the fact that as it gains miles, it increases in price.

If it bothers you so much that someone else sold a horse for a profit (after you yourself sold it for a profit) then no, you shouldn't sell it. You should keep it for about another 4-6 years and then sell it as a broke 10 year old A/O horse or Jr horse at the peak of it's value.

Of course that doesn't make any sense, either, right? There are a million points between selling a horse at its peak value and selling a horse at it's grass-green value. You have to decide where on that scale you are comfortable.

If the people in 2006 had re-sold the horse for 2x as much rather than 4x as much would you be less unhappy?

[Punkie]

Any time we sell a green horse (or ANY horse that hasn't already peaked at whatever discipline he is in) you have to be able to deal with the fact that as it gains miles, it increases in price.

If it bothers you so much that someone else sold a horse for a profit (after you yourself sold it for a profit) then no, you shouldn't sell it. You should keep it for about another 4-6 years and then sell it as a broke 10 year old A/O horse or Jr horse at the peak of it's value.

Of course that doesn't make any sense, either, right? There are a million points between selling a horse at its peak value and selling a horse at it's grass-green value. You have to decide where on that scale you are comfortable.

If the people in 2006 had re-sold the horse for 2x as much rather than 4x as much would you be less unhappy?

Oh, I'm not unhappy at all; I'm sorry if it came across like that! They didn't even take the offer. The horse has a GREAT home and is in a really awesome place, but it's just one of those things that sticks in the back of your head when the situation comes around again. He's a horse I didn't HAVE to sell by any means (just like this one), but I was very, very sick at the time and it was better to sell the horse right then and there and not have to worry about him, than to hang on, not knowing if I'd ever be able to ride again. I think I just feel a little silly for letting him go at the very first offer. And I'm wondering if I'd feel the same about this one too.

[findeight]

Can you get some idea how sales of similar horses at similar training levels offered in a similar price range are doing down at WEF or Ocala?
That will tell you more about whether keeping him looking for the bigger offer in 8 months is wise or not.

Offhand, based on what I have heard, they are selling but nothing like what they were even last year let alone in 2006. And there are waaaay less being offered.

And nobody, and I mean nobody, who has ever sold more then one or two horses, would EVER think it silly to take the first offer if it is a good one.