Here, I made a new one. I think this more accurately reflects the current modus operandi in the CDI offices.
Whaddya guys think?
And the early Las Vegas 2013 Derby favorite is already being determined - now that is uber fast! Drum roll please .... @ 30-1 it's Uncaptured
In case anyone was wondering about how betting odds work with a casino ...Quote:
“I made Uncaptured the favorite because I was really impressed by what I’ve seen,” said Avello of the Mark Casse trainee with three stakes wins at Woodbine. “We didn’t take any big bets on him, so many other bettors aren’t as sure he’ll transfer his form to the dirt, or maybe I set the odds too low. If no one bets him at 30-1, I’ll raise him.”
What does it take for Avello to move a number? He said he’s letting customers bet “to win $20,000.” So, if you want to bet a horse at 100-1, you can bet up to $200 before he’ll move the line (and let you bet again if you accept the adjusted price). Avello said he’ll take $100 no matter the price, so a horse at 300-1 could put his exposure at $30,000.
Avello said he’s already on the hook for $80,000 on yet another Pletcher trainee, Archwarrior, who opened at 150-1 and was bet all the way down to 50-1 on the first day.
No change from what was reported before in this thread but 2014 is the earliest that Hawthorne and Illinois Derby might get added to the Derby point eligible races.
Courier Journal 9-22-12 "Hawthorne can only look to 2014 for Illinois Derby’s inclusion in Kentucky Derby series"
Carey said the Chicago track offered [to Churchill Downs] to move the Illinois Derby into March, where it might be grouped with 50-point races like the Tampa Bay Derby, Risen Star, Spiral and Sunland Park Derby.
“We were even willing to change the date into the March time frame, which doesn’t make any financial sense for us to do,” said Carey, who said Churchill suggested the move. “…. They said, ‘If you guys come back with some ideas, we would take a look at it for 2013.’ We provided those to them, and they just came back and said, ‘Nope. Good luck in ’13 and maybe we’ll see you in ’14.’”
Carey said the Illinois Derby now will try to entice horses who might already have qualified on points and whose connections are looking for a softer final prep than the Grade I races, as well as those targeting the Preakness or Belmont.
I guess this somewhat makes this the defacto 2013 Kentucky Derby thread ...
(pdf) As of 9-30-2012 the Wynn Vegas 2013 Derby Odds
The favorite is now a tie @ 30-1 ... Canadian-bred and based runner Uncaptured with a record of 4 4-0-0. Although he may be a polytrack specialist.
And moving alongside is Archwarrior (as cited in the Saratoga thread 'the second coming of Seattle Slew' :D which was rather overhyped thus far) is also 30-1 and will be seen next most likely up against the 2nd wagering favorite ....
Shanghai Bobby is at 35-1 and he'll run next October 6th in the Grade 1, $400,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont against Archwarrior ;)
Next up at 40-1 is Goldencents. Who? The Cali based runner is 1-0 with a 7-length win at DelMar in a maiden on Sep 2nd. Looks like Jimmy "The Hat" (or some playa out there) put a lot of action on him to drop from 125-1 to the 40-1 ;)
Oddly Kauai Katie (f) is listed at 200-1!! Dreaming of Julia (f) at 55-1. I suppose the future book folks are looking at the new Derby entry rules and suspecting its even less likely a filly will gain eligibility into the Kentucky Derby.
I know each year we all see fillies who are wowing folks because they mature earlier but Kauai Katie has sizzled. For those who haven't followed her:
Video - her Keeneland auction, Sep 2011 yearling Hip # 1043 (sold $90k)
Video - her maiden at Saratoga 7-20-12
Video - her G2 debut in the Adirondack at Spa 8-12-12
Video - her G2 followup in the Matron at Belmont 9-30-12
$90k auction price and earnings after 3-0 record a cool $288,000 thus far with two blacktype earning and crushing victories
As of today (10/3/12) there are just 8 horses with Derby points. Two races thus far as qualifiers 1 in the US and 1 in Europe with the first four finishers, in each respective race, getting points.
Power Broker (video) just won the Grade 1 $250,000 FrontRunner Stakes (nee Norfolk Stakes) at Santa Anita Park on September 29, 2012. He was a $360,000 purchase at the 2011 Keeneland September yearling sale.Quote:
Horse - (Points) - Owner - (Trainer)
Power Broker - (10) - Gary and Mary West - ( Bob Baffert)
Steeler (IRE) - (10) - Sheikh Mo - (Mark Johnston
Know More - (4) - Reddam Racing LLC - (Doug O'Neill)
Artigiano - (4) - Godolphin - (Mahmood Al Zarooni)
Capo Bastone - (2) - Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners - (John Sadler)
Al-Waab (IRE) - (2) - Mubarak Al Naemi - (Sir Henry Cecil)
Carving - (1) - Baffert and Miller - (Bob Baffert)
Birdman (IRE) - (1) Anthony Hogarth - (David Simcock)
Carving was purchased by skiier Bode Miller - namesake of Bob's on in partnership with Jill Baffert for $55,000. He earned the 1-Derby point for his 4th place finish in that same FrontRunner stakes as Power Broker.
Don't expect Euro-based Steeler (IRE) to be in Louisville in May:
By finishing [Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket at one mile] in 1:35.67, Steeler set a new course record for a juvenile. Sportinglife.com reports that he bettered the old mark for his age group of 1:35.70 set by Forward Move in 2004.
"[Steeler] will come into his own next year and could be a Derby horse," Fallon concluded, but meaning the Group 1 Derby at Epsom, not Churchill Downs.
Thanks for posting these, GG.
But I have to say, that after reading all of this, and feeling the constraints of the points only for particular races, the system has definitely put a damper on getting psyched for the Derby trail.
I hope CD gets some kind of comeuppance and rethinks the system for the next year.
Although Bode isn't exactly working at the Safeway bagging groceries when he's not skiing. Per Forbes back in 2/10/2010 earned for 2009 an estimated $1.3 million. Keep in mind he only owns a part of the $55,000 purchase price of the horse. So maybe Jill put in $40k and he just $15k. Thus far they've made money on the purchase.
Bode is now engaged to professional volleyball player Morgan Beck so in the future they'll have two paychecks in the household to pay for horses :D
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile this year, as noted before, will not allow for runners to be administered lasix. One of the noted races this weekend which will most certainly confirm a few runners for going on to the BC JV and garner points towards the Kentucky Derby (which has no lasix ban) is the: G1 Foxwoods Champagne Stakes.
The $400,000 purses race has a field of seven. Only two of which will be running without lasix: Chief Havoc and Fortify.
What of say Shanghai Bobby and Archwarrior (both to be so administered for the Belmont Park race) - will they skip the Breeders' Cup? Nada. Trainer Todd Pletcher says that's too much money to leave on the table.
In terms of points for the Derby eligibility:Quote:
“If we had a problematic bleeder, it might mean that you wouldn’t go,” Pletcher said. “Right now, the 2-year-olds that we’re dealing with, none of them I would classify as problematic bleeders. I think we will continue to manage them the way that we normally do and then on race day we hope they run well without Lasix.”
“Personally, it doesn’t bother me, I can’t speak for all my owners,” said Pletcher, who won the Juvenile in 2010 with Uncle Mo. “What are your choices? If you have Shanghai Bobby or Archwarrior or somebody that wins the Champagne, by deciding not to go to California you’re giving up the opportunity to run in a $2 million race, you’re giving up the opportunity to be champion 2-year-old to run in the Remsen for $200,000? It’s the way it’s set up, it’s not great, but it is what it is. Play or don’t play.”
Champagne: 10-points W || 4-points P || 2-points S || 1-point for 4th
With a field of just 7 runners almost everyone gets something ;)
From the Grade 1, $400,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont there wasn't much of a race ... the initial overblown hype of Archwarrior being 'the next Seattle Slew' isn't there to date. It was Shanghai Bobby dispatching the field without being asked for anything.
Video: G1 Champagne Stakes (Oct 6, 2012
(Rosie, with props to her, won two Grade 1 races yesterday!)
Derby points added the following: Shanghai Bobby, 10; Goldencents, 4; Fortify, 2; and Archwarrior, 1.
As suggested before Pletcher would ship 'Bobby' to Santa Anita for the BC JV but that actually is a bit less likely now. Bobby's owner remarked that: I was a believer then, and I probably am still, that the horses that run in the 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup race don’t come back,” Wolf said.
On the "girls" side the Frizette Stakes was decimated with a horse cast in the stall -Roveing Patrol - resulting in her being scratched along with another. The field already was very small. So just four horses broke from the gate but damn it was a great match race between the two heavyweights - Dreaming of Julia and My Happy Face.Quote:
Also Shanghai Bobby’s victory pushed Pletcher past Bobby Frankel for second on the all-time [trainer's] earnings list. At day’s end, Pletcher had $228,168,465 in purse earnings, surpassing Frankel’s second-place mark of $227,912,022. D. Wayne Lukas, Pletcher’s former boss, is the all-time leader with $260 million.
My Happy Face won her maiden at the Spa by 21 1/4-lengths, where as Dreaming of Julia won her two prior by a combined 26+ lengths. It couldn't have been a better two dueling at the stretch.
It's worth watching ...
Video: Oct 6, 2010 Grade 1, $400,000 Frizette Stakes
Suggestive comments with Shangai Bobby skipping the party at Sanita Anita next month now revoked - 10-8/-12 Starlight Racing says 'Bobby' will go to the BC JV
Current points system for the Kentucky Derby (sub-ranked by earnings)
October 8, 2012
Rank. Horse. [Derby Points] Earnings
1. Shanghai Bobby.  $571,000
2. Joha.  $368,767
3. Power Broker.  $150,000
4. Steeler.  $132,849
5. Dynamic Sky.  $201,668
6. Know More.  $200,000
7. Goldencents.  $80,000
8. Artigiano. $63,564
9. Java's War.  $130,000
10. Fortify  $100,000
11. Capo Bastone.  $48,000
12. Al Waab.  $25,306
13. Pataky Kid.  $107,300
14. Carving.  $43,500
15. Birdman.  $43,031
16. Archwarrior  $20,000
The latest new Vegas odds are out and reflect the success (and losses) of others: (pdf) Wynn|Encore Vegas - 2013 Derby odds as of October 8, 2012
As noted by Jennie Reese/Courier Journal, a horse owned by a Rick Pitino partnership, having broken his maiden at Santa Anita, appeared on the odds board.
* Uncaptured went from 30-1 to 60-1 after losing Woodbine’s Grey Stakes.Quote:
Avare, who broke his maiden at a mile on turf Saturday at Santa Anita, debuts in Johnny Avello’s Kentucky Derby 139 odds at 250-1. Trained by 2012 Kentucky Derby winner Doug O’Neill, he’s owned by a partnership that includes University of Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino. And he’s named for Rick Pitino’s long-time financial advisor Rick Avare.
* Archwarrior is now at 40-1 after finishing fourth in the Champagne.
* Shanghai Bobby, Champagne winner, is the lowest at 20-1
* Carving, the Bode Miller/Jill Baffert owned horse, went up from 150-1 to now 175-1
Latest Wynn|Encore Sports Book odds for the 2013 Derby as Nov 5, 2012. As expected BC JV winner Shanghai Bobby drops to just 11-1 odds. No other horse that close to him.
An interesting low odd horse that had a decent (but nothing "wow" about) maiden win on Oct 20th: Z Big Apple now at 20-1
Right now with the Derby Points it's Shanghai Bobby with of them 20 and the other 19-point holders at 10-or-less. BC JV runner up, in a good fight, He's Had Enough sits with in a multi-tied position with just 4-points along with the 3rd place BC JV finisher, Capo Bastone, also with 4-points.
LA Times: Breeders' Cup crowd catches a much-needed rising star
Racing experts said that with Napravnik's stock rising, it's not a given she'll be back on Shanghai Bobby if a stronger entry emerges by Derby day.
"Todd's never asked me to take her off [Shanghai Bobby], and it sounds like she likes the horse," owner Jack Wolf said.
To that, Napravnik cracked: "Oh, you didn't get the bill."
A nice victory by the horse owned by downhill skiing champ Bode Miller (and co-owned with Jill Baffert) - Carving - who may be a Derby road contender: (video) $100k Real Quiet Satkes at Hollywood Park at 1 1/16-mi
The Real Quiet is a prep for the Grade 1, $750,000 CashCall Futurity on Dec. 15. Baffert said Carving likely would be one of several runners he has in the race. “I’m going to run as many as I can,” he said. “I’ll try to load the gate up.”
Maybe I haven't paid attention to the price of onsite tickets for the Oaks & Derby - and yes these are new, special seating sections - however this struck me as expensive:
For free you can watch the Churchill Downs backside from 1976 (thanks to Equidaily for spying it) with the Kentucky PBS video release on-line: (video) The Backside from KET (26 minutes):Quote:
The Louisville track is introducing a new seating and Section 110 hospitality venue for the 2013 Derby and the Oaks that offers the historic track's first stadium-type seating, hospitality highlighted by limitless food and drink, and a first-turn clubhouse location that provides the track's most breathtaking view of its iconic Twin Spires.
Kentucky Derby and Oaks fans who have registered online at CD/tickets for the opportunity to purchase tickets to the 2013 renewals of those events at Churchill Downs will be contacted via e-mail the morning of Nov. 14 with details of the online offering of more than 3,000 first-turn trackside seats.
Pricing for the two-day ticket package for Kentucky Derby and Oaks will range from $698 for uncovered seats to $799 for seats located under cover.
A visit to the backside of Churchill Downs—the stable area where the jockeys, trainers, and exercisers work—from 1976.