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Glimmerglass
Nov. 30, 2006, 10:58 AM
Thread title updated 1/12/2007 to make this the umbrella for the Derby discussions ... Nobiz Like Showbiz is still the early star as he was back in November when this started :D

Nobiz Like Showbiz: 3 starts before Kentucky Derby

Barclay Tagg has indicated that his top flight 2-yr old prospect will have three starts before the Kentucky Derby. Having won the Grade 2 Remsen alone, the colt has over $100k in graded earnings almost ensuring a slot on the first Saturday in May. Source: ESPN/DRF 11/30/06 (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2680419)


Tagg said that Remsen Stakes winner Nobiz Like Shobiz would likely make three starts prior to the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

Tagg mentioned two possible scenarios that both start with the Grade 3, $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3 at Gulfstream Park. Under one scenario, Nobiz Like Shobiz could go to the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 10 and then the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7. A second scenario could include the Fountain of Youth on March 3 and then the Wood.

Tagg said the Wood Memorial is logical because Nobiz Like Shobiz already showed a fondness for Aqueduct's main track with his 6 1/2-length Remsen score.

"If it's horrible weather up here or they're having trouble with the track I'll just go in the Florida Derby," Tagg said.

An interesting other item with Tagg and his other sensation, Showing Up. From the same ESPN/DRF article he won't be going back to California any time soon: (excerpts)


Despite Showing Up's brilliant victory in Sunday's Hollywood Derby, Tagg said he did not enjoy himself out there for a couple of reasons.

First, Tagg said that California state vet Gary Beck wanted to scratch Showing Up the morning of the race because he thought the colt was lame behind.

"Did [Beck] think I'd take a horse for the Barbaro people to a Grade 1 in California and go to all that trouble and all that expense if I thought he had a chance of breaking a leg?" Tagg said. "Look at the position it put me in; all day long I'm thinking, what do I do? I've got to tell the [Jacksons] he's trying to scratch the horse. If I keep forcing the issue and he does let him run and he breaks a leg, then I'm a real [idiot]. It made me very uncomfortable all day long and I had complete confidence that the horse was fine."

Beck said Showing Up took a couple of bad steps after being unsaddled, and for that reason he put the horse on the vet's list for a 10-day period. If Showing Up were to make his next start in Southern California, he would have to work five furlongs in 1:03 or faster in front of Beck or an official Southern California vet.

Drvmb1ggl3
Nov. 30, 2006, 11:09 AM
Tagg needs to cut the vet some slack, it's the vet's job to watch out for stuff like that and raise flags.
I read that he was whining over the seats at Hollywood Park too. He's one grumpy old dude.

Glimmerglass
Nov. 30, 2006, 11:31 AM
I read that he was whining over the seats at Hollywood Park too. He's one grumpy old dude.

:) It wasn't too many years ago of course that he was in the Triple Crown chase and the media began to openly loath dealing with him. Perhaps that was his intent, but then again I think the public expects good trainers to be curmudgeons.

Wasn't it the Jackson's who complained about the housekeeping condition [or lack thereof] of the viewing box assigned to them? Tagg mentioning the seating being disheveled to the media doesn't fully mean he was the one who complained to the Park management. Former L A Dodger's owner Peter O'Malley, Roy Jackson's roommate at University of Penn and a long time friend of the couple also joined them in the winners circle. So maybe he initially complained ;)

Glimmerglass
Nov. 30, 2006, 08:09 PM
Speaking of 2-yr olds and the Derby, I'm looking forward to the results of tomorrow evening's $1M Delta Jackpot at 1 1/16 mi. The Grade 3 race will net $600,000 to the winner so of the limited-to-ten entrants someone will be eligible for the Kentucky Derby easily.

Birdbirdistheword looks to be the strongest in the field coming off a Grade 1 effort (4th) and having good start otherwise; still not to be ignored will be Officer Rocket (GB) and Xchanger as each have won a G3 race just prior.

Hopefully the 9:30 pm start time won't have anyone cranky who wanted to otherwise go to bed early :)

Drvmb1ggl3
Nov. 30, 2006, 08:23 PM
Speaking of 2-yr olds and the Derby, I'm looking forward to the results of tomorrow evening's $1M Delta Jackpot at 1 1/16 mi. The Grade 3 race will net $600,000 to the winner so of the limited-to-ten entrants someone will be eligible for the Kentucky Derby easily.

Birdbirdistheword looks to be the strongest in the field coming off a Grade 1 effort (4th) and having good start otherwise; still not to be ignored will be Officer Rocket (GB) and Xchanger as each have won a G3 race just prior.

Hopefully the 9:30 pm start time won't have anyone cranky who wanted to otherwise go to bed early :)

I can't believe they give a bull ring like that a Graded race.

Glimmerglass
Dec. 1, 2006, 12:23 AM
I can't believe they give a bull ring like that a Graded race.

It is a lot of coin to be sure. Equally I'm a bit shocked it only attracted 11 entries (albeit a talented field) and they choose to accept just 10.

Glimmerglass
Dec. 2, 2006, 10:40 AM
Looks like we have a Debry entry ... from the $1M Delta Derby


First:Birdbirdistheword
Second: Pirate Deputy
Third: Xchanger

Go Poppa Fooze: final placing was 7th

See: DRF 12/2/06 "Birdbirdistheword takes down $1M Jackpot" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/80975.html)

Above info corrected per Drvmb1ggl3

Drvmb1ggl3
Dec. 2, 2006, 11:00 AM
Glimmer, GPF ran down the field last night, he was 7th I believe. The DQ was for an earlier race.
It was a suicidal ride by GPF's jock, I guess he thought he was riding in a QH race, as that's what they normally run down there. Insane first ¼ and ½ mile, then stopped like rock after ¾m.
Takes a little getting used to to see them run 1½ times around the track just to go a little over a mile.

Glimmerglass
Dec. 2, 2006, 07:07 PM
Glimmer, GPF ran down the field last night, he was 7th I believe. The DQ was for an earlier race.

I stand corrected!


Go Poppa Fooze, who won the prep for the Jackpot, the $150,000 Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs on Nov. 3, was disqualified from first and placed sixth after he was found to have exceeded the permitted level of bicarbonates in his system. The track announced the disqualification on Friday.

The DQ was for the race on the 3rd of November

Glimmerglass
Dec. 3, 2006, 12:10 AM
Contrary to the high profile, and nose bleed high purchases of those wishing to get to Kentucky in May, try this for Birdbirdistheword:


A 2-year-old son of Pure Prize bred in Florida by Lucy Edwards and Randell Edwards, Birdbirdstheword was coming off a fourth-place finish in the Lane's End Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland on Oct. 7. The Delta Jackpot was the third win in five starts for the colt, who previously won the Harrah's Juvenile at Louisiana Downs. The colt was sold at the August 2005 Ocala Breeders' Sales Company sale for $32,000 and has now earned $702,100Source: The Bloodhorse (http://racing.bloodhorse.com//viewstory.asp?id=36608)

Making a profit and punching a ticket to the first Saturday in May :)

Glimmerglass
Dec. 8, 2006, 09:11 AM
Bill Finley (ESPN) has his early mentions of 2007 Kentucky Derby winners and to no one's shock Nobiz Like Showbiz is among the eight cited.

ESPN/Bill Finley 12-7-06 "Eight winning Kentucky Derby profiles (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=2690152)


It won't be Street Sense, Circular Quay, Scat Daddy or any other horse who had already hit their best stride by the first week in November.

His list does not cite good or bad Birdbirdistheword which could be a mistake. The eight cited are:


TIZ WONDERFUL
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
BELGRAVIA
GRAPELLI
CHELOKEE (for those Barbaro folks, he's trained by MM)
SILVER EXPRESS
STRIKE A DEAL

Glimmerglass
Dec. 13, 2006, 02:07 PM
Nobiz Like Shobiz in good company

In recent years, horses that have finished second in the Champagne or won the Remsen have had a good track record of success as 3-year-olds. Nobiz Like Showbiz became just the sixth horse do both in his three-race 2-year-old campaign.

Recent Champange runner-ups who have done well in the 3-year-old classics were Afleet Alex, the 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner; Point Given, the 2001 Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers winner; and Lemon Drop Kid, the 1999 Belmont and Travers winner. Other notable Champagne runner-ups include Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Affirmed. Last year's Champagne runner-up was Henny Hughes, who became a Grade 1-winning sprinter.

Remsen winners Go for Gin and Thunder Gulch won the Kentucky Derby in 1994 and 1995, respectively, and last year's Remsen winner, Bluegrass Cat, finished second in the Kentucky Derby and won the Haskell before suffering a career-ending injury when he finished second in the Travers.

Off his emphatic victory in [the] Grade 2, $200,000 Remsen Stakes, Nobiz Like Shobiz will be at or near the top of most prognisticator's lists of 2007 Kentucky Derby prospects. Nobiz Like Shobiz won the Remsen by 6 1/2 lengths and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 97. His time of 1:48.82 was the fastest Remsen at the distance since 1977, when Believe It won in 1:47.80.

Source: Daily Racing Form (http://www.drf.com/news/article/80845.html)

Glimmerglass
Dec. 21, 2006, 12:44 PM
Some further info on where Tagg looks to be pointing Nobiz ...

DRF 12-21-06 "Tagg's two stars point for Gulf meet" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/81370.html)

excerpt


"He's training normally but won't work until around New Year's since he's not going to run until Feb. 3," said Tagg. "He'll probably be a little different as a 3-year-old than a 2-year-old and I'll have to get a line on him as we go along, but the plan at the moment is to get him started in the Holy Bull, run back four weeks later in the Fountain of Youth, and then give him five weeks to the Wood. The back-up plan would be to keep him here for the Florida Derby if the weather in New York became too harsh.

"I just think I'd prefer to have five weeks between the Fountain of Youth and his final Derby prep and then four weeks going into the Derby than the other way around. Although if I had to change up it probably wouldn't be that big a deal."

So -

Feb 3, 2007: $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at 1 1/8 mi
Mar 3, 2007: $300,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at 1 1/8 mi
Apr 7, 2007: $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes ** (G1) at 1 1/8 mi

** Alternative to Wood is ...
Mar 31, 2007 $1,000,000 Florida Derby (G1) at 1 1/8 mi

(Btw - here are the nominations for the 2007 FL Derby already (http://www.gulfstreampark.com/NR/rdonlyres/863C7A9B-C56F-4B72-A05D-11A0D21C842D/729/FloridaDerbyNoms12606.pdf))

an interesting aside, Vine Hill is also nominated to the Florida Derby, he is trained by Michael Matz but more importantly owned by Whitewood Stables. The family owning that Stable also owns The Chronicle Of The Horse publication among several businesses

Glimmerglass
Jan. 2, 2007, 01:34 PM
He's looking good in the New Year - it will be wonderful to see the Derby chase start up and how his likely contenders Street Sense, Tiz Wonderful, Belgravia, and Unbridled Express fair as well.


Nobiz Like Shobiz gets back to work
By Mike Welsch
Jan 1, 2007
Daily Racing Form (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2716853)

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. -- While New Year's morning was an easy one for the majority of the horses stabled in and around south Florida this winter, such was not the case for Nobiz Like Shobiz, who celebrated his third birthday Monday at Gulfstream by working - four furlongs in 49.50 seconds under regular rider Cornelio Velasquez.

Nobiz Like Shobiz, who ended his 2-year-old campaign at or near the top of everybody's list of 2007 Kentucky Derby contenders, ran fractions of 12.82 seconds, 24.34, and 37.06, and galloped out an easy five furlongs in 1:03.47. The work was the first for the son of Albert the Great since his impressive 6 1/2-length triumph in Aqueduct's Grade 2 Remsen on Nov. 25.

"I wanted him to go in 48 and change, but it didn't really matter," trainer Barclay Tagg said after Nobiz Like Shobiz had finished cooling out back at the barn. "I just wanted to let him stretch out, and he went good. I like to have Cornelio work him when I can because he's light, he knows the horse well, and he's the one who has to be satisfied with the way he's going."

Tagg's first objective with Nobiz Like Shobiz this winter is the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes here on Feb. 3.

"I freshened him up pretty good after the Remsen, and he's put a little weight on," said Tagg. "I'm hoping to get five works into him before the Holy Bull, although we got a little bit of a late start. Since he went in 49 this morning I'll probably bring him back in five or six days. I couldn't have done that if he'd gone too fast."

Glimmerglass
Jan. 2, 2007, 01:41 PM
Worth a look back: Nov 25, 2006 'Remsen Stakes' (G2) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPq32UDQ-5Y)


Nobiz Like Shobiz won the Remsen by 6 1/2 lengths and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 97. His time of 1:48.82 was the fastest Remsen at the distance since 1977, when Believe It won in 1:47.80.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 3, 2007, 09:06 AM
(As spied by Equidaily.com) Top 10 Contender for the Derby by Michael Veitch of the Saratogian (http://www.saratogian.com/site/index.cfm?newsid=17661752&BRD=1169&pag=461&dept_id=17708&rfi=8)

The January 2, 2007 posted excerpted list


1. Nobiz Like Shobiz
2. Street Sense
3. Tiz Wonderful
4. Circular Quay
5. Great Hunter
6. Scat Daddy
7. Stormello
8. Liquidity
9. Belgravia
10. Horse Greeley

Glimmerglass
Jan. 4, 2007, 10:00 AM
Finally some mention of Birdbirdistheword, well down the list, after a gushing no. 1 for Nobiz Like Showbiz:

XPress Bet - White's "Kentucky Derby Top 10" 1/4/07 (http://www.xpressbet.com/Mjwarchive.aspx?view=436&Month=01&year=2007)


[first] Kentucky Derby Top 10 list for 2007:
(1) Nobiz Like Shobiz
(2) Street Sense
(3) Tiz Wonderful
(4) Circular Quay
(5) Great Hunter
(6) Any Given Saturday
(7) Stormello
(8) Hard Spun
(9) Belgravia
(10) Lawrence the Roman

In alphabetical order, lurking right below my Top 10, are: Birdbirdistheword, Day Pass, E Z Warrior, Liquidity, Minefield, Out of Gweddo, Pirates Deputy, Ravel, Scat Daddy, Soaring By and Teuflesberg.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 5, 2007, 12:22 PM
Initial Odds on the 2007 Kentucky Derby contenders:

Source: HorseHats.com with future odds (http://www.horsehats.com/DerbyContenders.html)

Their Top 10 by lowest odds for January 3, 2007:


Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
Street Sense 12-1
Tiz Wonderful 12-1
Birdbirdistheword 18-1
Circular Quay 20-1
Hard Spun 20-1
Scat Daddy 22-1
Ravel 22-1
Stormello 22-1
Great Hunter 25-1

Glimmerglass
Jan. 8, 2007, 11:39 AM
E Z Warrior (listed at 30-1 per the early odds) a Bob Baffert trained colt looks to be in very nice form.

ESPN 1/7/07 "Unbeaten E Z Warrior dominates San Miguel" (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2723738)


Now unbeaten in three starts, E Z Warrior is certainly the quickest 3-year-old on the West Coast. But he still has yet to race beyond six furlongs, so his chances of becoming a prime Kentucky Derby prospect are still suspect.

The future was on the backburner on Sunday. This was his first start since the Hollywood Juvenile Championship in July. He suffered from sore shins last summer.

"I'm glad to have him back," trainer Bob Baffert said.

E Z Warrior, a son of Exploit purchased by Baffert for owner Ahmed Zayat for $1.2 million at Barretts last year, is unbeaten in three starts. Curiously, he has drawn the rail every time.

Nobiz Like Showbiz put in a fine workout on Sunday (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=36983):



If Elizabeth Valando's homebred colt needs any inspiration, the 2003 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner is now just a few stalls down the shedrow. Sackatoga Stable's 7-year-old gelding Funny Cide just arrived after a short winter vacation.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 9, 2007, 12:23 PM
Will we see the part Rick Pitino owned (Ol'Memorial Stable and C.E. Glasscock) colt, Buffalo Man, race aginst Nobiz in the Holy Bull Feb 3rd? Possibly. With a couple of good stakes victories it is time to take on the big players ...


Buffalo Man edges field
Miami Herald 1/8/07 (http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sports/horse_racing/16407496.htm)

Trainer Cam Gambolati sent out Buffalo Man to take the $100,000, six-furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park. Ridden by Eddie Castro, Buffalo Man was turning back from a winning effort in the Storm Cat Stakes at the Meadowlands on Nov. 11.

Castro sat just off the pace set by Voodoouthinkur before moving three wide near the top of the stretch. Buffalo Man began to draw off after the eighth pole en route to a one-length victory in a time of 1:09.60.

Gambolati has been ambitious with this horse, running him in the Grade 3 Sapling at Monmouth (N.Y.), where he finished third and the Grade 1 Champaign at Belmont (N.Y.), where he ran a disappointing eighth.

Gambolati said: ``He showed promise before he ever started. In the Sapling, he had the one post and got trapped down inside and behind a wall of horses and still got beat less than a length for it all. The Champagne was my fault. I asked [Javier] Castellano to try and rate him, and he got in all kinds of trouble -- bounced around like a pinball and stepped on three times.

The options are now the Holy Bull [on Feb. 3] or the Ocala race a week later [Feb. 12]. We'll talk it over, but after the way he ran today, I guess it's time to try the big boys.''

Glimmerglass
Jan. 11, 2007, 08:24 AM
Yes, in the era of the lightweight horse yet another horse bound for the Derby with few starts planned ..

TB Times 1/10/07 "Street Sense to race twice before Kentucky Derby" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/January/10/Street-Sense-to-race-twice-before-Kentucky-Derby.aspx)


Street Sense, the Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner and a finalist for champion two-year-old male, will probably race twice before the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), trainer Carl Nafzger said on Wednesday.

Nafzger and owner-breeder James Tafel will work backward in devising a prep schedule for Street Sense, with the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 14 at Keeneland Race Course already earmarked as his final start before the Derby on May 5 at Churchill Downs

Glimmerglass
Jan. 11, 2007, 08:09 PM
Interestingly Hard Spun, among the early Top 10, may or may not race in the Oaklawn Park series which did so much for Smarty Jones. If he stays at Oaklawn he'll ring up the cash register but likely avoid the big guns:


Trainer Larry Jones has ambitious plans this spring for his undefeated Hard Spun, who will make his 3-year-old debut in Saturday's $100,000 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds.

Jones, who is stabled at Oaklawn Park, had originally planned to compete in the that track's 3-year-old stakes series, but could choose a different path if Hard Spun runs well in the Lecomte.

"You can get a little bit better graded earnings if you start out on this route," Jones said at Fair Grounds on Thursday. "But we're going to take it one race at a time."

Seven 3-year-olds will contest the Grade 3, one-mile Lecomte, the first leg of a series which continues with the Grade 3, $300,000 Risen Star on Feb. 10 and concludes with the Grade 2, $600,000 Louisiana Derby on March 10.
Source: DRF 1/11/07 "Hard Spun stretches out, faces tougher" (http://drf.com/news/article/81812.html)

Beezer
Jan. 12, 2007, 12:11 AM
OK, Glimmer, I know you didn't say this but I still have to go "ACK! That's wrong!" About this: "Other notable Champagne runner-ups include Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Affirmed."

Now I suppose, technically, that's correct since Secretariat was disqualified from his multi-length win for boring in on Stop the Music. But still. He won the race, dang it! :p (And I always remember the quip by STM's jock that "Considering how fast Secretariat was going, the bump probably did more to propel my horse forward than stop him." :D )

Signed, a Secretariat fan to the bitter end.

As to Nobiz Like Showbiz, he does look like a racehorse, doesn't he? And Tagg is certainly a horseman who's paid his dues and deserves all the good horses he's now getting.

But I still like Great Hunter. Aside from his being a California resident (like me :p) , you have to like a horse who cost relative peanuts at auction ($30,000) and has now earned well over $500,000 and won a Grade I ... and besides, I'm supertitious enough to be wary of that BC Juvenile curse. ;) Much better to be sitting on one of the other top finishers rather than the winner, methinks.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 12, 2007, 09:56 AM
Beezer, lets not forget Hoist the Flag was DQ'd in the Champagne too and he flew to the finish by 3-lengths. Bumping? Come on - if another horse never had a shot (a la Limit to Reason) and bumps the powerhouse and they get taken down that just seems wrong!


As to Nobiz Like Showbiz, he does look like a racehorse, doesn't he? And Tagg is certainly a horseman who's paid his dues and deserves all the good horses he's now getting.

Tagg does bring experience with the "big dance" and is less likely to have the sweaty palms worring about what might happen with his client's horse. His gruff demeanor doesn't sugarcoat what racing is like so a loss isn't going to be met with backpeddling and excuses.

Regarding looks - I loved this from the Arkansas News Bureau 1-11-07 (http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2007/01/11/HarryKing/339562.html):


The [media] liaison asked [D. Wayne] Lukas to bring Pegasus Wind outside so the folks with cameras could click in the light. At that moment, a Lukas helper walked behind the boss, leading a horse wearing a dark green blanket. That's the one, Lukas told us.

We have to assume Lukas was shooting straight. Not a soul in the group could tell Pegasus Wind from No-Running Nag, but this colt was much bigger and more muscular than Hard Spun, the first horse introduced at the meet and greet.

:D "He must be better - he's bigger"


But I still like Great Hunter. Aside from his being a California resident (like me :p) , you have to like a horse who cost relative peanuts at auction ($30,000) and has now earned well over $500,000 and won a Grade I ...

Luckily a fe top candidates for the Derby are composed of several "cheap" buys - Birdbirdistheword purchased for $32,000 (earnings over $700k and a graded stakes win) and Nobiz Like Showbiz was acquired for under $200k which is relatively cheap these days ;) Proof that paying $1M + for colts unproven on the track is just dumb, dumb in my view ...

It will be interesting to see how Hard Spun does when he runs Saturday in New Orleans. Rick Porter (who owned Rockport Harbor, and Round Pond) already was offered money by the Maktoums to sell him ..

Philadelphia Inquirer 1-12-07 "Hard Spun's promise faces test in New Orleans" (http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16440982.htm)


Representatives for one member of a most prominent horse-racing family, the Maktoums, the ruling family of Dubai and currently the world's major buyers and owners of thoroughbred horse-racing talent, were "very interested" in trying to negotiate to buy Hard Spun.

"I think if I were to sell him before he raced again, I'm confident that he's worth more than a couple of million dollars," said Porter, who paid $400,000 privately for the horse as a yearling, on the recommendation of his former trainer, John Servis. "He might be worth nothing after Saturday. One bad race and nobody's interested anymore. That's the problem. You hold your breath every race. If doesn't run good, all your dreams are shot."

Oh, by the way, I'll take Teuflesberg to win tomorrow over Hard Spun.

holmes
Jan. 12, 2007, 11:46 AM
I hope Chelokee's second was just a bad day at the races - I know he is a sprinter, however it would be fantastic for centennial farms. I guess we do not have to wait long.........

Glimmerglass
Jan. 12, 2007, 12:26 PM
I hope Chelokee's second was just a bad day at the races - I know he is a sprinter, however it would be fantastic for centennial farms. I guess we do not have to wait long.........

Chelokee is nominated to the Florida Derby (http://www.centennialfarms.com/view_horse.asp?Action=53), but we'll see if that is a possibility to go there with just 2-starts resulting in 1 blow out win at Del Park (13-lengths) and the other well off the board.

His future book odds for a Kentucky Derby victory (http://www.horsehats.com/DerbyContenders.html) are being pegged at 200-1 as of early Jan 2007.

Considering Buffalo Man is listed at 250-1 and he just won the Spectacular Bid Stakes the odds makers aren't always right ;) The Green Monkey remains at 200-1 too.

caffeinated
Jan. 12, 2007, 01:31 PM
I may have to back Hard Spun just because of the awesome hat... LOL

Thanks for the links G!

holmes
Jan. 12, 2007, 01:50 PM
Chelokee is nominated to the Florida Derby (http://www.centennialfarms.com/view_horse.asp?Action=53), but we'll see if that is a possibility to go there with just 2-starts resulting in 1 blow out win at Del Park (13-lengths) and the other well off the board.

He is racing tomorrow at Gulfstream in a 1 mile allowance - Zito's horse Silver Express looks like his only real competition!

He is bred for sprinting so it should be interesting. I know the farm wants to put him in the triple crown races.....

Glimmerglass
Jan. 12, 2007, 01:59 PM
Today's column by Gary West of the Dallas Fort-Worth Star Telegram (1/12/07) ("http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/horse_racing/16444493.htm) talks about the Texas link to several well-spoken 3-yr olds for this year's TC chase:

examples

No fewer than 17 legitimate Triple Crown prospects have ties to Texas. They're owned or trained by Texans, or, in a couple of instances, they've raced in the state.

Steve Asmussen, an Arlington resident and Lone Star Park's all-time leading trainer, has two prominent prospects: Zanjero, who ran second in the Remsen Stakes, and Tiz Wonderful, an unbeaten colt who won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Both horses are training at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

Bret Calhoun, a Grand Prairie native and a top trainer in the region for years, will put Makeithapencaptain on the Triple Crown trail Saturday, in the LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds. Owned by Bobby Beck of Colleyville, Makeithapencaptain has won consecutive outings by a total of 25 lengths.

Although he has led throughout in each of his victories, Makeithapencaptain has shown in morning workouts that he'll willingly relax behind other horses. He found himself on the early lead, Calhoun said, only because of his clear superiority. He won't be gunned for the lead Saturday, and the LeComte should provide some indication of the Captain's place in the Triple Crown picture.

Perhaps the most telling remark is his last: But how many of these prominent 3-year-olds with Texas connections will race in the state this year? Probably very few. The prominence of racing in Texas still lags far behind the importance of Texans in racing.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 13, 2007, 06:10 PM
Oh, by the way, I'll take Teuflesberg to win tomorrow over Hard Spun.

Well the upset didn't happen and Hard Spun looks to be the real deal. Although Teuflesberg - who started racing back in April 2006 as a two year old and has now 12 starts - is still a decent horse by Johannesburg.

Makeithapencaptain didn't make it happen with a disappointing 4th.

Race 9 Jan 13, 2007 New Orleans/Fair Grounds: Grade 3 LeComete Stakes (http://drf.com/results/13/rFG13.html?rn=363084#9) - results


win Hard Spun
place Izzie's Halo
show Teuflesberg

Btw Chelokee who was supposed to race in a $40k allowance at Gulfstream for 1-mile scratched.

Xctrygirl
Jan. 13, 2007, 06:23 PM
Cough Cough..Link Cough Cough

http://theshedrow.com/gallery/Saratoga-2006/unknown_matz_081906_0003Ax

Cough Cough Chelokee Cough Cough

PS: As I have ridden him I can assure you that if you're on him you're certainly not thinking sprinter. :)

And Remember Scrappy's dosage was 5.67. And I GUARANTEE you he has't been a sprinter either. ;)


~Emily

Linny
Jan. 13, 2007, 06:28 PM
He sure was the talking horse of the Saratoga meet. I can't tell you how many people asked me about him.

VirginiaBred
Jan. 13, 2007, 06:29 PM
Cough Cough..Link Cough Cough

http://theshedrow.com/gallery/Saratoga-2006/unknown_matz_081906_0003Ax

Cough Cough Chelokee Cough Cough

PS: As I have ridden him I can assure you that if you're on him you're certainly not thinking sprinter. :)

And Remember Scrappy's dosage was 5.67. And I GUARANTEE you he has't been a sprinter either. ;)


~Emily

Damn, what a stride! :eek:

holmes
Jan. 14, 2007, 12:56 AM
Anyone know why Chelokee was scratched?

Xctrygirl
Jan. 14, 2007, 09:36 AM
From another bb this quote came from the Centennial Farms website or some other Centennial source:


Chelokee, a 3-year-old colt trained by Barbaro's trainer, Michael Matz, has been scratched from a scheduled race today at Gulfstream Park, according to Pat Lamberty, part of the Centennial Farms ownership group.

"Following galloping this morning, discomfort was found in Chelokee's right front foot," Lamberty said in an e-mail yesterday. "Both the blacksmith and [a veterinarian] examined the foot, revealing that he has a bruise on the inside heel which was tender when hoof testers were applied.

"We have decided to take the cautious approach and feel it is the best interest of everyone to scratch from tomorrow's race. His hoof is being treated today and we will continue to examine the foot over the next few days until the soreness is relieved."

Thats all I know.

~Emily

holmes
Jan. 14, 2007, 03:44 PM
THANKS!!!

Glimmerglass
Jan. 14, 2007, 07:32 PM
DFW Star-Telegram 1-14-06 "Stars will make run from starting gate" (http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/horse_racing/16459657.htm)

Note: abriged version of Gary's article


In the 1970s, the Kentucky Derby winner typically had run nine times (or 8.9 to be exact) as a 2-year-old; in the 1980s, six times. The Derby winners of the 1990s averaged five juvenile starts (5.2), and those since then only two (2.4).

TRIPLE CROWN CONTENDERS

During the last 20 years that staff writer Gary West has compiled an early list of Triple Crown contenders, the Kentucky Derby winner has been included 18 times. The list is based less on accomplishment than on potential, and more on what they might do May 5, when the Triple Crown series begins with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

1. Nobiz Like Shobiz
2. Street Sense [largest earnings of all @ $,1,78,000; no other has over $1M]
3. Tiz Wonderful
4. Any Given Saturday
5. Circular Quay
6. Lawrence The Roman
7. Hard Spun [note this ranking was after his win 1-13-06 in the LeComte Stakes by 6 1/2-lengths]
8. E.Z. Warrior
9. Soaring By
10. Belgravia
11. Longley
12. Ravel
13. Forefathers [Nick Zito trained]
14. Day Pass
15. Scat Daddy
16. Great Hunter
17. Stormello
18. Notional
19. Out of Gwedda
20. Buffalo Man
21. Dilemma
22. Minefield
23. Zanjero
24. Dubious Miss
25. Liquidity

Glimmerglass
Jan. 15, 2007, 10:31 AM
With thoughts certain at some point to be, "will we have a triple crown winner this year", it is interesting to flashback to this article in 1979 on the eve of Spectacular Bid's expected romp at Belmont:

Time Magazine June 11, 1979 "Riddle of the Triple Crown" (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946320,00.html)


Why, so suddenly, a parade of super horses?

When the big, three-sided trophy by Cartier was inaugurated by the Thoroughbred Racing Association in 1950, only nine horses, from Sir Barton in 1919 to Citation in 1948, had earned the right to have their names engraved on the emblem of the Triple Crown of American racing. After Citation, 25 long years passed before Secretariat added another name to that most select circle, and through the long drought, one question bedeviled breeders, owners, trainers and bettors alike: Why were there no Triple Crown champions?

But once Secretariat broke the spell in 1973, there followed in quick succession a parade of superhorses. Seattle Slew won the title in 1977, Affirmed last year, and this year Spectacular Bid is the favorite to capture the Belmont Stakes on Saturday and, with it, the coveted Triple Crown. The new question: Why are there suddenly so many champions?

Mathematically, at least, the chances of producing such a champion seem much reduced: only 1,665 foals were registered when Sir Barton won; 8,434 when Citation won in 1948; last year the number was 31,326. Alfred Gwynne Vanderbilt, member of one of America's most distinguished racing families, pondered the problem last week and concluded, "I can't think of any logical reason for more Triple Crown horses lately. And if we do get a third in a row this year, I think it's mostly chance."

Most owners and trainers agree. Says John Veitch, trainer for the legendary Calumet Farms: "A number of horses over the past 30 years or so have had a chance to win the Triple Crown, but they've had bad luck and broken down before they had a shot."

... article continues here without registration/fee (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946320,00.html)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 15, 2007, 11:06 AM
From Gary West's list of 1/14/06: see

DFW Star-Telegram 1-14-06 "Stars will make run from starting gate" (http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/horse_racing/16459657.htm)

The list is based less on accomplishment than on potential, and more on what they might do May 5, when the Triple Crown series begins with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

18. Notional

DRF/CBS Sports 1/13/07 "Notional wins San Rafael, with assist from blinkers" (http://horseracing.sportsline.com/cbs/headlines/showarticle.aspx?articleId=15859)


After a pair of disappointing races, Notional got back to the winner's circle on Saturday at Santa Anita by making up five lengths in the final half-mile to capture the Grade 2, $150,000 San Rafael Stakes for 3-year-olds.

Notional is one of three 3-year-olds O'Neill and Reddam are pointing to the Kentucky Derby, along with stablemates Great Hunter, who was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after winning the Breeders' Futurity, and Liquidity

Glimmerglass
Jan. 15, 2007, 01:47 PM
Note missing from the Top 20 list is Birdbirdistheword, who has enough graded stakes money to get in regardless of what he does next.

A flashback to his big money win:

youtube.com "Boyd Gaming's Delta Jackpot Stakes (G3) December 1, 2006" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-za609rIxFQ) - no where to be found or mentioned for most of the first half is Birdbirdistheword, but he did hold off a charge at the end.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 16, 2007, 01:24 PM
From the BloodHorse (Steve Haskin) for the week of January 16, 2006 (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37104)

Haskin's Top 10:


1) Street Sense

2) Nobiz Like Shobiz — All in all, he has Derby horse written all over him. His five-furlong work in :58 3⁄5 suggests he won’t need much to be ready for his debut.

3) Tiz Wonderful
4) Any Given Saturday
5) Circular Quay
6) Great Hunter
7) Scat Daddy
8) Hard Spun
9) Stormello
10) Two more O’Neill-Reddam horses — Liquidity and Notional — share this spot.


KNOCKING AT THE DOOR
Roman Commander and Belgravia
Birdbirdistheword
Lawrence the Roman
Sam P. and the Matz-trained Chelokee
Pirates Deputy
E Z Warrior
Day Pass
Minefield
Buffalo Man
Out of Gwedda
Cowtown Cat
Boutrous
Drums of Thunder and Green Vegas
Soldier’s Dancer
Vicarino
Sapling
Tenfold
Our Sacred Honor
Arcata
C P West

Glimmerglass
Jan. 17, 2007, 10:14 AM
Warning: Expect for Nobiz Like Shobiz a Funny Cide-like treatment of the media for this year's run-up to the Derby.

Albany Times Union 1-17-07 'Racing' (http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=554411&category=SPORTS&newsdate=1/17/2007)


In the words of Barclay

Trainer Barclay Tagg remembers what it was like in 2003 with Funny Cide. After winning the Kentucky Derby and then the Preakness, his barn was mobbed with media in the three weeks leading up to the Belmont Stakes.

Tagg is in Florida now and he hopes his 3-year-old Nobiz Like Showbiz can bring him some more magic in this year's Triple Crown. If that does happen, the media will be back, much to Tagg's chagrin.

"I like to keep things quiet around the barn," Tagg said. "Sometimes you can end up with people thinking this is a petting zoo. I hope we can keep things quieter this time."

caffeinated
Jan. 17, 2007, 10:20 AM
hehee...

He reminds me of the Black Stallion books, and the stories about Seabiscuit, that involve imposters being sent to the track for publicized workouts while the horse is actually trained in the dead of night... LOL

Glimmerglass
Jan. 18, 2007, 10:25 AM
I wonder if today's environment (re: litigation central) wouldn't result in a trainer being sued if some of the blatant but classic covert practices of old were done today. e.g. Tagg sending out a horse that looks like Funny Cide - and wearing Funny Cide marked items - to put in bullet workouts to give a false impression to the railbirds, reporters, clockers.

The punters would whine I'm sure to say the odds were influenced in error by intentional misinformation.

Anyhow ...

Jon White at XpressBet (http://www.xpressbet.com/Mjwarchive.aspx?view=441&month=01&year=2007) takes a look at the measly two starts suggested for Street Sense before the Derby. History simply doesn't suggest a lightly raced horse will rise to the occasion:


According to the 2006 Kentucky Derby media guide, from 1948 through 2005, a total of 50 Kentucky Derby starters had raced twice previously as a 3-year-old. Only one of the 50 won, that being Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

Sunny’s Halo made his 3-year-old debut in Oaklawn Park’s Rebel Handicap on March 26, winning by three lengths under Larry Snyder. Next, the colt took the Arkansas Derby by four lengths on April 16 when ridden for the first time by Eddie Delahoussaye.

The 52 horses to try and win the Kentucky Derby with fewer than three previous races at 3 since 1948, 51 have failed. So good luck to Street Sense in 2007 if he indeed only makes only two starts at 3 before the Derby.

This quote was cited in another article (I think the DRF and Gulfstream press release) but reiterated in the above column:


Derek Sturniolo is Nobiz Like Shobiz’s regular exercise rider.

“I’ve exercised a lot of good horses,” Sturniolo said in the Gulfstream Park barn notes. “He’s easily the best I’ve ever ridden. It’s like going from a Chevette to a Ferrari.”

dana1011
Jan. 19, 2007, 09:33 PM
Tiz Wonderful is out.

Injured Tiz Wonderful will miss Kentucky Derby (http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/16500912.htm)


Tiz Wonderful is off the Kentucky Derby trail. Unbeaten in three races and one of the early favorites for the Triple Crown series, Tiz Wonderful has a minor tendon injury that will delay his return to competition and so prevent his running in the Kentucky Derby, his trainer, Steve Asmussen, said Friday.

“He reached up and hit himself,” Asmussen said, “and there’s a blemish on the tendon (of the right foreleg). So we’ll just walk him for a while, and a horse that’s walking the shedrow this time of year isn’t going to make the (Kentucky) Derby.”

Glimmerglass
Jan. 20, 2007, 04:57 PM
Sad to see Tiz dropped out as he was on all lists in the top 5. From the article Dana1011 cited (Star Telegram of DFW) this remark was made:


With Tiz Wonderful out, Nobiz Like Showbiz and Street Sense become the clear early favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Street Sense won last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile and will probably be named, on Monday, the champion 2-year-old of 2006. Nobiz Like Shobiz won the Remsen Stakes.

I think making Street Sense the JV Eclipse Champion - over Nobiz - is unwise. My prediction is that in 2007 head to head, Nobiz will rock SS's world on the track and never look back.

lizathenag
Jan. 20, 2007, 07:39 PM
will be my future book pick.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 24, 2007, 09:56 AM
will be my future book pick.

A few bits in an otherwise quiet week with races on the road to the Derby ...

BloodHorse 1-22-07 "Kentucky Derby Trail" (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37200)


Pletcher will be back in action on Feb. 17 when Any Given Saturday runs in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, followed by the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. I) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). The son of Distorted Humor is still a bit green and may have cost himself a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) when he drifted out at the quarter pole and then again in the final sixteenth and still was beaten only a half-length by Tiz Wonderful.


Another notable performance was the victory by Exhale, who was nothing short of brilliant winning a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita by five lengths in 1:15 4/5 for John Sadler. It wasn’t the margin of victory or the final time that was impressive as much as the way he did it. This colt looks to have a ton of class and a smooth, powerful way of going. As good as he looked, it was only a maiden sprint, and he has a long way to go before he can be regarded as a serious Derby horse. A son of Millennium Wind out of a Manila mare, his pedigree says he’ll stretch out with no problem.

As for Birdbirdistheword, he is right on schedule and will have his first work on Feb. 3.

Don't forget the small but steady string the D. wayne Lukas has goin this year. He's talked up Pegasus Wind who hasn't had the breakhtrough performance expected. Per Lukas based this winter in Arkansas at Oaklawn (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2740667):


Pegasus Wind was third in the Grade 1 Champagne last year, then ran 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He breezed five furlongs in 1:02.40 here Sunday.

"We're looking at the Southwest for him," said Lukas, who noted the colt displaced his palate in the Breeders' Cup. "He was running really well at the head of the stretch, it looked like he could even win it, then he displaced. But it looks like that's behind him. We haven't had any trouble since."

Lukas has made a change in bits with Pegasus Wind.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 24, 2007, 11:27 AM
A bit of an odd choice with Street Sense and where to prep him

Already disclosed was that Nafzger was going to race him just twice before the Kentucky Derby. The last being the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 14 at Keeneland Race Course. His first appears to be the Hutcheson - a race that hasn't been a spring board for success ...

ESPN/DRF 1-23-07 "Street Sense gets down to business" (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2739802)


The Grade 2 Hutcheson, which had traditionally been run earlier in the meet, will be decided at 7 1/2 furlongs on March 3, the same afternoon as the Grade 2, 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth.

"He ran too hard at 2 to run him more than twice before the Derby," said Nafzger. "Besides, he's plenty experienced. All I have to do is get him fit."

The Hutcheson is certainly not considered as a key Derby prep. The last horse to pull off a Hutcheson-Kentucky Derby double was Swale, who won both races in 1984.

The most prominent winner of the race in recent years was Holy Bull, who went off as the Derby favorite only to finish 12th over a sloppy track. Unbridled's Song finished second in the 1996 Hutcheson and was also the beaten favorite later that year in the Derby.

Perhaps the most memorable/insane win in the Hutcheson was Frisk Me Now (http://www.oldfrankfortstud.com/documents/friskmenow.pdf) in 1997 when the race was run in early Feb - not early March - and he went off at odds of 105-1, and for good reason: he had won only one of his seven starts, and that was six months prior. He had never won a stakes race, or even run in one :)

Slewdledo
Jan. 24, 2007, 05:28 PM
What do y'all think of Dreaming of Anna's chances? They're certainly thinking of the Derby. It'd be great fun if she made it. She's still got lots to prove but has proven that she's got both toughness and versatility in spades.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 24, 2007, 05:41 PM
Regarding her odds - and I don't know who is generating these as there is no cited source/credit for where they come from - but at the moment she's listed 40-1 (http://www.horsehats.com/DerbyContenders.html); which puts her in the top 20 - 25 or so of this class and the highest filly.

The last filly I thought could be serious contender was 2005's Sweet Catomine who was a big gal with gobs of energy to close from off the pace. However she went into heat (among other physical issues) when she was running with the boys and that ended that.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 25, 2007, 11:35 AM
Btw - Slewdeldo: I sent in the question regarding "Dreaming of Anna" and her chances in the Derby to "Talking Horses" for today (1-25-07) with Steve Haskin (http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/) so we'll see if he addresses it.

For the week of 1-22-06 John White at HR.TV (http://www.hr.tv/jwcolumn.aspx) has his top ten, which is largely unchanged save for Tiz Wonderful dropping out.


Here is my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list for this week: (1) Nobiz Like Shobiz, (2) Circular Quay, (3) Any Given Saturday, (4) Hard Spun, (5) Street Sense, (6) Notional, (7) E Z Warrior, (8) Great Hunter, (9) Exhale, (10) Liquidity.

He again rails on the notion of doing less then three starts between Jan 1 and the Kentucky Derby, hence Stormello drops out of the top 10 with suggestions of doing just that. As evidence he offered up this bit of history:


Here is the Kentucky Derby record of those who started only twice at 3 prior to the Derby from 1948 to the present:

(1948) Billings, finished 4th
(1949) Johns Joy, 9th
(1949) Lextown, 11th
(1951) King Cloven, 13th
(1951) Mameluke, 20th
(1952) Sub Fleet, 2nd
(1952) Swoop, 16th
(1953) Native Dancer, 2nd
(1954) Hasseyampa, 3rd
(1955) Summer Tan, 3rd
(1958) Red Hot Pistol, 11th
(1974) Lexico, 22nd
(1974) Sir Tristram, 11th
(1981) Television Studio, 5th
(1981) Tap Shoes, 14th
(1982) Muttering, 5th
(1982) Rockwall, 6th
(1983) Sunny’s Halo, 1st <- the only winner with under 3 starts
(1986) Bold Arrangement, 2nd
(1986) Vernon Castle, 15th
(1987) Capote, DNF
(1988) Regal Classic, 5th
(1991) Best Pal, 2nd
(1992) Thyer, 13th
(1992) Disposal, 18th
(1993) El Bakan, 18th
(1994) Valiant Nature, 13th
(1994) Powis Castle, 8th
(1994) Ulises, 14th
(1994) Brocco, 4th
(1995) Talkin Man, 12th
(1997) Deeds Not Words, 13th
(1998) Favorite Trick, 8th
(1998) Victory Gallop, 2nd
(1998) Old Trieste, 10th
(1999) Lemon Drop Kid, 9th
(2000) Anees, 13th
(2001) Point Given, 5th
(2003) Indian Express, 14th
(2003) Peace Rules, 3rd
(2004) Birdstone, 8th
(2004) Castledale, 14th
(2004) Friends Lake, 15th
(2004) Lion Heart, 2nd
(2004) Read the Footnotes, 7th
(2004) Tapit, 9th
(2005) Closing Argument, 2nd
(2005) Wilko, 6th
(2005) Bellamy Road, 7th
(2005) High Limit, 20th
(2006) Private Vow, 15th
(2006) Sharp Humor, 19th

Glimmerglass
Jan. 25, 2007, 12:11 PM
Courier-Journal 1-25-07 "Experiment Free Handicap released" (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070125/SPORTS08/70125024)

Dual qualifiers used to have a great track record in the Derby, when the entire crop that raced was weighted. But since the stakes performance restrictions were instituted in the late 1980s, the theory has lost validity, especially with the trend toward more lightly raced 2-year-olds.

excerpt


There are 14 dual qualifiers this year among the colts and geldings, an inordinately high number. They are (with weight and dosage index):

Street Sense (127, 2.14), Scat Daddy (123, 2.47), Circular Quay (122, 2.08), Great Hunter (122, 3.00), Nobiz Like Shobiz (122, 1.44), Stormello (121, 2.67), Tiz Wonderful (120, 2.11), Any Given Saturday (119, 2.67), Horse Greeley (119, 3.0), Liquidity (119. 1.86), Pegasus Wind (119,. 4.00), King of the Roxy (118, 3.00), Belgravia (117, 3.36) and Roman Commander (117, 1.50).

Dreaming of Anna, the unbeaten Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and 2-year-old filly champ, was assigned high weight of 123 pounds, the standard top weight for a filly. That’s three more pounds than Juvenile Fillies runner-up Octave.

So Dreamaing of Anna would be tied with Scat Daddy [in second] at 123 lbs.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 25, 2007, 04:25 PM
Someone else asked about Anna to Steve Haskin for the Q&A session Jan 25th with 'Talkin Horses' (http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/SH012507.asp):


Q: Hi again, Steve. How come your last couple of Derby updates haven't included Dreaming of Anna? She's more durably bred than a lot of colts that you write about (so she figures to still be sound in May), and talent wise, she's just as good or better than most 3-year-old colts (at this point). She's also shown a liking for the Churchill surface. Have her connections ruled out the KY Derby, or are you taking a "wait and see" approach to her until her connections make a commitment one way or the other?

Haskin: I try to take a wait and see approach with fillies. I've had too many on my radar screen only to see that evaporate quickly. I still don't know what to make of Dreaming of Anna. I'm not crazy about front-running fillies for the Derby, unless they are an Amazon super horse like Winning Colors. You saw what happened to Serena's Song and Althea in the Derby. It's tough enough for a top-class colt to win the Derby on or near the lead. Plus, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies was not a strong field last year, so we really don't know what she was beating. Let's wait a little longer before using up a precious spot in the Top 12.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 26, 2007, 11:10 AM
Will there be a horse racing at Golden Gate Fields (but HP-based) to come into the Derby mix? From this article you'd think they have the next Hard Spun with this son of Tiznow ...

SF Chronicle 1-26-07 "Boutrous taking an important step in Cal Derby" (http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2007/01/26/SPGKSNPA7S1.DTL)

excerpt


The first deadline for nominations to this year's Triple Crown races came Saturday, but hopes for horses like Boutrous began much earlier.

"When I bought him, the owner wanted a horse that was Kentucky-bred that had the breeding to go 1 1/4 miles," trainer Craig Dollase said in a conference call from his barn at Hollywood Park.

That's the distance of the Kentucky Derby, but first Boutrous will seek his third straight win in a 11/16-mile race when he makes his stakes debut in the $150,000 California Derby on Sunday at Golden Gate Fields. Boutrous finished fourth going 6 1/2 furlongs in his debut Sept. 17 at the Los Angeles County Fair. His other two starts came at Hollywood Park, where he made up 12 lengths in the final 4 1/2 furlongs to break his maiden Nov. 12 and rallied from closer to a slow pace to win an allowance race Dec. 17.

"I like to give a horse a short race first," Dollase said. "It wasn't his forte, but it was good exposure to get him going. The longer the distance, the better." "He's got a helluva last quarter-mile kick," Dollase said. "The farther they go will separate him from average horses."

Glimmerglass
Jan. 28, 2007, 04:23 PM
Another Future Book of Odds for the KY Derby Contenders (http://letitride.com/LVH_Future_Book_Odds.cfm)

The lowest odds, up to and including 30-1:

Nobiz Like Shobiz 7-1
Street Sense 9-1
Hard Spun 12-1
Notional 18-1
Birdbirdistheword 20-1
Any Given Saturday 22-1
Ravel 22-1
Liquidity 25-1
Scat Daddy 30-1
Circular Quay 30-1
Holy Roman Emperor 30-1
Great Hunter 30-1
Unbridled Express 30-1
Bold Start 30-1

Take the odds for what they are worth as Dreaming of Anna is 50-1 and The Green Monkey is 75-1 :D The latter is waaaay too low for the exceedingly unlikely chance he'll even start a graded race by then!

Glimmerglass
Jan. 28, 2007, 05:39 PM
Courier-Journal 1/28/07 "'Lovely Horse' returns Tagg to derby mix" (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070128/SPORTS08/701280552/1002)

snippet ...


"He's a lovely horse with a lovely disposition. And he's very, very fast," Tagg said. "… The first day I ever laid eyes on him at Ocala Stud I called the lady right there and said, 'If this horse isn't a Triple Crown candidate then we don't know what we're looking for.' I don't usually say something like that to an owner, but he was an outstanding horse. Hopefully he'll get there, but there's a little wood to chop."

Thus far Nobiz Like Shobiz has been a buzzsaw, winning his debut at a mile by 10 3/4 lengths, narrowly losing the Grade I Champagne after being pinched back at the start and then taking the 11/8-mile Remsen by 6 1/2 lengths.

Because of the Champagne loss, Tagg didn't want to rush Nobiz Like Shobiz back in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile three weeks after the Remsen.

"I thought he ran very, very well," he said of the Champagne. "But I thought it would be foolish to jam him right back in the Breeders' Cup off, not really a bad experience, but it wasn't a good experience either. If he'd won that easily, I'd have gone on to the Breeders' Cup. But he didn't, and we thought we'd give him a little more time and practice with him at the gate a little more, and if he ran well in the Remsen, why we'd plan a Triple Crown trail for him."

How about this tid bit on an early contender with a boat load of earnings already ...


Name game: Delta Jackpot winner Birdbirdistheword, trained by Louisville's Kenny McPeek, is named for owner Ray Cottrell's Vietnam combat experience and the 1963 song "Surfin' Bird" by The Trashmen. "The choppers that took us out into the combat area and the ones that picked us up, we called them the birds," said Cottrell, a Brandenburg, Ky., car dealer. "Some of the gunners on the choppers, they'd have a big radio boom box, and sometimes they'd play that (song) when they picked us up and carried us out."

Glimmerglass
Jan. 29, 2007, 09:47 AM
Will there be a horse racing at Golden Gate Fields (but HP-based) to come into the Derby mix? From this article you'd think they have the next Hard Spun with this son of Tiznow ...

SF Chronicle 1-26-07 "Boutrous taking an important step in Cal Derby" (http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2007/01/26/SPGKSNPA7S1.DTL)


Well the big hope with Boutrous at Golden Gate Fields didn't happen as he took 2nd. Rather the winner Bwana Bull took the win and crushed the field with a 5-length gap. Sadly Russ Baze was not on for the ride as he was injured from a horrfic multiple-horse spill early in the day.

[b]Contra Costa Times 1-29-07 "Bwana Bull wins California Derby" (http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/sports/16570860.htm)

excerpt


Hollendorfer said it's impossible to prove, but he thought his colt would have won whether Boutrous had an opening along the rail or not.

"(Bwana Bull) did everything he was supposed to do," said Hollendorfer, who also owns a piece of Bwana Bull along with Mark DeDomenico, Dan Jelladian and Jerry Todaro. "I think this race puts him in the (Kentucky Derby) picture."

Although the next logical step for Bwana Bull would be the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby on March 10, Hollendorfer said he would consult with his partners before making a decision.

Although the purse of Sunday's race was $150,000, with Bwana Bull getting the $82,500 winner's share, the California Derby is not graded. That means that Hollendorfer and his partners will have to concentrate on graded stakes in order to earn enough "graded" money to get into the Kentucky Derby.

Condolences to the connections of American Ivy who had to be destroyed after the 8th race - may she rest in peace :(

Glimmerglass
Jan. 30, 2007, 12:27 AM
Worth noting - front running candidate for the Kentucky Derby, Nobiz Like Shobiz, turned 3-yrs old today. He was foaled January 29, 2003. Happy Birthday ...

It is now less then one week before his 3-yr debut in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at 1 1/8 mile on Feb 3rd.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 30, 2007, 01:03 AM
Hard Spun to remain at Oaklawn for his next start instead of going to New Orleans


The undefeated Hard Spun will remain at his Oaklawn Park base for the track's series of stakes for 3-year-olds, beginning with the $250,000 Southwest on Feb. 19.

"Right now, we're planning on the whole campaign right here," said Larry Jones, who trains Hard Spun for Rick Porter.

Hard Spun won the Grade 3, $100,000 Lecomte at Fair Grounds in his two-turn debut last out and had been considered for the Grade 3, $300,000 Risen Star there Feb. 10. By staying home, he will not have to make the 10-hour van ride to New Orleans from Hot Springs, Ark., said Jones.

The other stakes in the 3-year-old series at Oaklawn are the Grade 3, $300,000 Rebel on March 17, and the Grade 2, $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 14. Source: DRF 1/29/07 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82214.html)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 30, 2007, 12:26 PM
In case anyone wants to have their "Top 20" picks potentially used in the Louisville Courier-Journal you can submit your picks: here on their site before by noon each Thursday. Starting Feb. 4 (http://forums.courier-journal.com/viewtopic.php?t=32627&sid=23eb77cb228a96fcb61abb1d24acf9f2). They then will pick from those submitted that afternoon.

In case anyone is wondering - no I didn't do entry #1. Nobiz has 'no business' being ranked in 5th! What the heck!!

[link corrected]

caffeinated
Jan. 31, 2007, 09:50 AM
In case anyone wants to have their "Top 20" picks potentially used in the Louisville Courier-Journal you can submit your picks: here on their site before by noon each Thursday. Starting Feb. 4 (http://t=32627&sid=23eb77cb228a96fcb61abb1d24acf9f2). They then will pick from those submitted that afternoon.


er... your link doesn't work :)

Is the Holy Bull going to be televised? Need to set my DVR :)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 31, 2007, 10:31 AM
Is the Holy Bull going to be televised? Need to set my DVR :)

ESPN isn't airing the race so I assume HRTV or TVG will air it and the very important Donn Handicap of the same day at Gulfstream.

(I corrected the link)

Regarding Dreaming of Anna: DRF 1-31-07 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82227.html)


... is now scheduled to make her 2007 debut at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 10, trainer Wayne Catalano said Tuesday morning.

Gulfstream has a pair of races that day for 3-year-old fillies, the Grade 3 Old Hat at 6 1/2 furlongs and the Grade 2 Davona Dale at one mile. Both are worth $150,000.

Catalano and Calabrese bicker like an old married couple. On Tuesday, Calabrese glanced over at Catalano and said, "I really want to race her in the Derby, but I'm getting opposition."

Calabrese, still looking at Catalano, smiled and added, only half-joking, "I want to win the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, and if you can't, I'll put her with a trainer who will." :D

Glimmerglass
Jan. 31, 2007, 02:57 PM
The BloodHorse's weekly update on the Derby Trail with a few items I missed:

BloodHorse 1-31-07 "Kentucky Derby Trail: Defining Moments" (http://news.bloodhorse.com//viewstory.asp?id=37347)


A big disappointment this weekend was the poor effort by Pegasus Wind in a six-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn Park, in which the Wayne Lukas-trained colt finished seventh of nine, beaten 19 lengths at 1-5.


As mentioned earlier, Chelokee, trained by Michael Matz, romped by 13 1/4 lengths in a Delaware maiden race, and then finished an excellent second to Sam P. in a Churchill Downs allowance race, having to go five-wide at turning for home. The son of Cherokee Run had a minor setback, but is back on the Palm Meadows work tab and will be dangerous wherever he shows up.

And for comparisons two leading contenders:

Scat Daddy, also has had four five-furlong drills, the last being a 1:00 2/5 breeze.
Nobiz Like Shobiz with six works this year, including a bullet five-furlongs in :58 3/5 and six furlongs in 1:11 4/5.

Nominations for the G3 Holy Bull Stakes [closed 1-24-07] - in pdf (http://www.gulfstreampark.com/NR/rdonlyres/EC3B06BF-A67E-499C-AE01-45FDEAC0CD6D/5867/HolyBullNoms.pdf); you'll note that neither Scat Daddy or Nobiz are list as they'll be "late entries" if they run

Glimmerglass
Feb. 1, 2007, 09:55 AM
Perhaps the most memorable/insane win in the Hutcheson was Frisk Me Now (http://www.oldfrankfortstud.com/documents/friskmenow.pdf) in 1997 when the race was run in early Feb - not early March - and he went off at odds of 105-1, and for good reason: he had won only one of his seven starts, and that was six months prior. He had never won a stakes race, or even run in one.

An association with the above in the news - DRF Jan 31, 2007 "Robert Durso, trainer of Frisk Me Now, dies" (http://drf.com/news/article/82259.html) :(


Frisk Me Now, who ran in the name of Durso's wife, Carol Dender, burst onto the scene as a 3-year-old in 1997 after upsetting the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes at odds of 105-1. He went on to win four Grade 2 stakes - the Suburban, Gulfstream Park BC Sprint, Ohio Derby, and Philip Iselin Handicap - and earn more than $1.7 million.

Regarding this weekend's G2 Holy Bull Stakes another contender:

FL Sun-Sentinel Feb 1, 2007 "Kaplan to see if `Drums' can make noise" (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/sfl-spkaplan01feb01,0,4119567.story?coll=sfla-sports-headlines)


A former accountant and owner of a private airline, Kaplan picked [b]Drums of Thunder, a son of Concerto, out of the April Ocala Breeders' Sales for $47,000. "My primary thing is watching hours and hours of film and his breeze on tape was awesome," Kaplan said. "He went smooth as glass. He didn't blow the clock away, I think he went in :221/5, but he did it smoothly. And he's a very, very agile athlete."

After winning Nov. 16 at 1 1/16 miles by nine, Drums of Thunder came back Dec. 2 in the What A Pleasure to beat Stallion Stakes winner Green Vegas. Kaplan realizes Drums of Thunder hasn't faced the level of competition he will Saturday.

"And I've seen Nobiz Like Shobiz and he's very impressive," Kaplan said. "But I don't think we've seen the best of Drums of Thunder."

Glimmerglass
Feb. 2, 2007, 12:03 AM
I think I missed the fact that the Holy Bull Stakes has been shortened to just 1-mile for 2007 (vs 1 1/8 mi in 2006) which suggests this will be pretty easy for Nobiz ... the draw for the race:

Florida Park - Sat Feb 3 - Holy Bull (Grade 3) (http://www.gulfstreampark.com/RACING/NEWS/Press+Releases/Details/Holy+Bull+Draw.htm)


PP ## HORSE ##WEIGHT ## JOCKEY ## ML ODDS
1 ##POP GOES THE TIGER (Fl) ## 120 ## E. Truillo 20-1
2 ## SCAT DADDY (Ky) ## 118 ## J. Velazquez 2-1
3 ## SAM P(Ky) ## 116 ## R. Bejarano 6-1
4 ## ONE OF THE BEST (Fl) ## 120 ## E. Coa 20-1
5 ## DRUMS OF THUNDER (Fl) ## 122 ## M. Cruz 6-1
6 ## BOLD START (Ky) ## 122 ## K. Desormeaux 6-1
7 ## DUKES FLYING TIGER (Fl) ##116 ## E. Nunez 20-1
8 ## NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (Ky) ## 116 ## C. Velasquez 8-5

With just 116 lbs assigned to him this should be a runaway by Nobiz

Glimmerglass
Feb. 2, 2007, 01:30 PM
From today's DRF/ESPN Sports 2-2-07 (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2751926):


"If [Nobiz Like Shobiz] had come back in the Breeders' Cup, I couldn't have done some of the things I wanted with him," Tagg said. "It was a tough race. I doubt he could have beaten Street Sense, and all running him there would have done is screwed him up for this."

Nobiz Like Shobiz drew the outside post in the field of eight on Thursday.

"He ought to be able to stay out of trouble out there," Tagg's assistant, Robin Smullen, said after the post draw.

"He's good and fit," Tagg said. "He just has to do it."

Nobiz Like Shobiz is an imposing horse, but he glides along effortlessly when in motion, like in his final workout here Wednesday morning.

"He does it awful easy," Tagg said.

Slewdledo
Feb. 3, 2007, 04:26 PM
WOW. Nobiz won the Holy Bull. He's STILL figuring things out and it doesn't look like his reserves have even been tapped.

True that the Arabs tried to buy him but were rebuffed?

Drvmb1ggl3
Feb. 3, 2007, 04:27 PM
Tagg is sitting on a helluva horse here. He just walked the Holy Bull, ran the last furlong with his head cocked to the right looking at the stands. I wonder what he'll be like when he starts getting serious.

1. Nobiz like Shobiz 3/5
2. Dreams of Thuinder 25/1
3. Scat Daddy 9/5

Drvmb1ggl3
Feb. 3, 2007, 04:27 PM
A fine looking animal too.

Drvmb1ggl3
Feb. 3, 2007, 04:30 PM
I think Tagg just cracked a smile, can't be sure. Does any have it on tape?

Glimmerglass
Feb. 3, 2007, 04:38 PM
True that the Arabs tried to buy him but were rebuffed?

I don't know who was offer was from but yes, Elizabeth Valando, was offered well in the seven-figs for him after the Remsen.

Obviously anyone making an offer after that blow out was a no-brainer. As was holding on to him too was a no-brainer too. Tagg when he first saw him at Ocala Stud called up Elizabeth and said "if that doesn't look like a Triple Crown candidate then I don't what to look for". He said in all his years he's never been that excited seeing a horse for the first time.

A tip of the hat to Drums of Thunder whose owner (in a prior article cited) was confident he was up to the challenge. IMHO Scat Daddy, like so many of the fall standouts tend to be, peaked months ago.

Onward and upward to the Fountain of Youth (G2; March 3rd) next for Nobiz. I think its clear that the rest of the field has reason to be affraid - very affraid.

VirginiaBred
Feb. 3, 2007, 05:20 PM
From The Barbaro thread:

NoBiz Like ShoBiz won the Holy Bull by two lengths. He ran green, switched leads late and looked like he was lugging a little. If this horse learns to run straight and focused then we will see something very different perhaps. He is at the top of his division. Scat Daddy was off the bridle early. The field was strung out in the end.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 3, 2007, 05:42 PM
The race replay is available (for free) at:

http://www.calracing.com/replays.php

(One time registration required, but its exceptionally simple to sign up; click on HORSE, type in the name, then use your mouse curser to select "Search")

Drvmb1ggl3
Feb. 3, 2007, 08:35 PM
From The Barbaro thread:

NoBiz Like ShoBiz won the Holy Bull by two lengths. He ran green, switched leads late and looked like he was lugging a little. If this horse learns to run straight and focused then we will see something very different perhaps. He is at the top of his division. Scat Daddy was off the bridle early. The field was strung out in the end.

From the Road to the Kentucky Derby 2007 (nee Nobiz Like Showbiz) Thread:

WOW. Nobiz won the Holy Bull. He's STILL figuring things out and it doesn't look like his reserves have even been tapped.
-------

Tagg is sitting on a helluva horse here. He just walked the Holy Bull, ran the last furlong with his head cocked to the right looking at the stands. I wonder what he'll be like when he starts getting serious.

1. Nobiz like Shobiz 3/5
2. Dreams of Thuinder 25/1
3. Scat Daddy 9/5
------------

A tip of the hat to Drums of Thunder whose owner (in a prior article cited) was confident he was up to the challenge. IMHO Scat Daddy, like so many of the fall standouts tend to be, peaked months ago.

Onward and upward to the Fountain of Youth (G2; March 3rd) next for Nobiz. I think its clear that the rest of the field has reason to be affraid - very affraid.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 4, 2007, 04:50 PM
Regarding the list of nominations to the Triple Crown - just released Feb 3rd - here are some of the overseas and interesting entries:


Dreaming of Anna, the unbeaten Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner, tops five female nominations.

There are 27 nominations from Europe and the United Arab Emirates, headed by Irish kingpin Aidan O'Brien's nine. Last year there were 15 overseas nominations.

Three nominees have been racing in Japan: Flying Apple, Mystic Bell and Pisa No Deilani -- each owned by Nobutaka Tada and trained by Kazuo Fujisawa.

There also is a rare and curious nomination from Australia: The unraced Giacosa is a son of Giant's Causeway who was born Sept. 29, 2004 -- making him four to eight months younger than his Northern Hemisphere brethren.

Source: Courier-Journal (KY) (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070204/SPORTS08/702040645)

Full list of 450 paid nominations here (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37402)

Winners of Kentucky Derby Prep Races in February thus far:


Feb 3rd: Swale Stakes (G2)Adore the Gold
Feb 3rd: Holy Bull Stakes (G3) Nobiz Like Shobiz
Feb 3rd: Sham Stakes (G3) Ravel
Feb 3rd: Miracle Wood S. (ungraded) Crafty Bear

The Sham Stakes at Santa Anita by Ravel over the heavily favored Liquidity was a solid performance! Its available in replay format on the www.calracing.com/replay site

Glimmerglass
Feb. 4, 2007, 04:59 PM
Regarding [Grade 3 Shame Stakes winner] Ravel - don't pronounce it like "unravel" ;)

LA Daily News 2-4-07 "Ravel's name known now" (http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_5154404)


In case Ravel goes on to win the Kentucky Derby, let the record show that on the day of the colt's first stakes victory, knowledgeable people weren't even sure how to pronounce his name.

"Ravel, that's his name," bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne confirmed Saturday at Santa Anita, saying it like the composer instead of the opposite of unravel. "We'll have to have a talk with Mr. (Trevor) Denman (the track announcer)."

Ravel ($7.20), fourth and pocketed early, swung out and wore down favored Liquidity to win by a length. The son of 2000 Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus and grandson of 1991 Belmont winner A.P. Indy ran the second-fastest (1:48.91) of seven Shams.

Liquidity, the Hollywood Futurity runner-up to top California 3-year-old Stormello, might have his blinkers opened next time so he can see rivals and "show his competitiveness," trainer Doug O'Neill said.

As I recall from the first few grass efforts for Barbaro his name was pronounced vastly different by the track announcers from what it ultimately became ;)

Edited to add: McCarthy indicated Ravel will aim for the April 7 Santa Anita Derby.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 5, 2007, 08:38 AM
Where is .... birdbirdistheword? If he goes the FOY route he'll be smacking up against Nobiz early.


Birdbirdistheword won't start until March

Birdbirdistheword, who won the Delta Jackpot last fall, probably will not make his 3-year-old debut for at least another month, trainer Kenny McPeek said.

"I'm shooting for something in early March, like the Louisiana Derby," McPeek said at the Palm Meadows training facility, where he is based this winter. "I'm also looking at the Fountain of Youth or the Tampa Bay Derby.

"He was turned out for most of the month of December. He had shipped and run a lot. We gave him 30 days, and he really filled out."

Source: DRF Feb 3, 2007 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82319.html)

Also ..


Trainer Nick Zito said that C.P. West, one of his better 2-year-olds last year, needed time off for sore ankles at the end of last year. He began his serious training this year with a three-furlong work in 36.80 seconds at Palm Meadows on Thursday.

An aside is that, Man In Havana, the unraced half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, worked five furlongs in 1:02.80 at Palm Meadows for trainer Michael Matz. However for those wishing to see another Kentucky Derby will not be in luck it appears with Man In Havana not being nominated to the Triple Crown (http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/horse_racing/16608035.htm).

holmes
Feb. 5, 2007, 09:53 AM
True that the Arabs tried to buy him but were rebuffed?

Someone also put an offer in on HardSpun, which got rejected - last year Barbaro had an offer before the FL Derby.

Linny
Feb. 5, 2007, 10:49 AM
If it's available, check out the fourth race from Gufstream on Saturday. The winner was a first time start, he ran green into the lane but won by 12. His name is Curlin and you'll hear more from him.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 5, 2007, 12:09 PM
If it's available, check out the fourth race from Gufstream on Saturday. The winner was a first time start, he ran gree into the lane but won by 12. His name is Curlin and you'll hear more from him.

Curlin, Jockey: by R Bejarano, Trainer: Pitts Helen, Owner: Midnight Cry Stable, Breeder: Fares Farm (KY)

7 Furlongs in 1:22.25, carrying 122 lbs.

The race is available via www.calracing.com/replays.php

And yes he is nominated to the Triple Crown (http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/horse_racing/16607858.htm) ;)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 5, 2007, 12:50 PM
A tip of the cap to the folks at "Horseplayerdaily" in their "Fearless Forecast" (http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/cat/countdown+to+the+crown.html) they made the following remark:


Gulfstream's Race 4 is another 7-furlong sprint, but this one is for maidens. SAN GERONIMO and SENOR ENRICO look like potential turf stars out of War Thief and Collect the Cash, respectively. I'm not sure how far he'll go and how fast he could ascend up the ladder, but debuter CURLIN should be tough for Helen Pitts. He's working up a storm and is from the female family of 2YO filly champion Countess Diana, so there's a lot of win-early mojo here. WINSTRELLA debuts for Team Pletcher with a nice tab as well. He's by Gone West and is half-brother to Shuvee winner Colonial Minstrel.

Considering, as Linny said, he won by 12-14 lengths after running in the middle of the track down the stretch he was a monster on the loose in that grouping. No idea if he'll run at 1 1/4 and clearly with time against him getting up to speed (no pun intended) plus history against every horse ever having not raced at 2-yrs old in the Derby it will be interesting if he becomes even a contender ...

Glimmerglass
Feb. 5, 2007, 07:45 PM
Deluxe!! It will be full house in the $300,000 G3 Risen Star Stakes prep race for the Derby - wonderful

BloodHorse 2-5-07 "Circular Quay Tops Full Field in Risen Star Stakes" (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37432)


Michael and Doreen Tabor’s Circular Quay, an Eclipse Award finalist as a juvenile last season, kicks off his 3-year-old campaign by heading a full field of 14 sophomores named to the $300,000 grade III Risen Star Stakes, the featured event of “Louisiana Derby Preview Day” Saturday at Fair Grounds Race Course.


Risen Star Stakes (Grade III)

35th running -- $300,000 guaranteed -- 9th race -- Approximate post: 4:28 p.m. CST

1 1/16 miles – 3-year-olds

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Weight Odds

1 Slew’s Tizzy Gregory Fox James Graham 116 30-1
2 Makeithapencaptain Bret Calhoun Ramsey Zimmerman 116 30-1
3 Beta Capo Steve Asmussen Donnie Meche 120 30-1
4 Izzie’s Halo Tom Amoss Jesse Campbell 116 8-1
5 Circular Quay Michael McCarthy John Velazquez 122 9-5
6 Westwon D. Wayne Lukas Corey Lanerie 116 15-1
7 Scat Thief Eric Guillot Joseph Talamo 116 30-1
8 Imawildandcrazyguy William Kaplan Fernando Jara 116 15-1
9 Spankey Come Home Sal Gonzalez Gerry Olguin 116 30-1
10 Zanjero Steve Asmussen Jesus Castanon 120 5-1
11 Weather Warning Dallas Stewart Lonnie Meche 120 10-1
12 Notional Doug O’Neill Robby Albarado 122 9-2
13 Teuflesberg Jamie Sanders Emma-Jayne Wilson 122 15-1
14 Buffalo Man Cam Gambolati Jose Lezcano 122 10-1

A very, very solid field! It should be a great race!

see also: Fairgrounds News (http://www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/news/stakes_news/stakes_news_02052007.html)

Drvmb1ggl3
Feb. 5, 2007, 09:28 PM
5 Circular Quay Michael McCarthy John Velazquez 122 9-5

That one threw me for a loop... until it dawned on me Pletcher is, how shall we say, er suspended.

Hell of a strong field in that one, the Fairgrounds sure did a great job of attracting some good horse flesh.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 6, 2007, 12:18 AM
Hell of a strong field in that one, the Fairgrounds sure did a great job of attracting some good horse flesh.

Agreed that they certainly did a bang up job of luring in talent to race all at once in what should be a quality field for the fans, trainers, bettors, and sports writers.

Assorted Beyer figs and next options for some leading contenders, including of course all 16.3 hands of him, Nobiz Like Showbiz:


Tagg is leaning toward bringing back Nobiz Like Shobiz in the 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth, and keeping that extra week in his holster for later this spring. Tagg got the ideal comeback out of Nobiz Like Shobiz in that he won, but, according to Tagg, did not appear to be unduly stressed by the effort.

Nobiz Like Shobiz, owned by Elizabeth Valando, got a Beyer Speed Figure of 98.

"He's a lovely, lovely horse," said Tagg, who does not cavalierly throw out superlatives. "When I first laid eyes on him, I told Mrs. Valando he was the most magnificent horse I'd ever seen."

There were two other stakes for 3-year-olds last weekend, and both got slightly better figures. Earlier on the Gulfstream card, Adore the Gold captured the 6 1/2-furlong Swale Stakes in a driving finish for which he received a Beyer Figure of 102.

And at Santa Anita, the long-striding colt Ravel also received a Beyer of 102 for his victory in the Sham Stakes.

Adore the Gold will go two turns in his next race, according to trainer Mike Gorham, who said he had yet to decide where or when that would be.

"I wanted to get this over with and see where we're at," said Gorham, who said he would decide on a race for Adore the Gold in two weeks. Depending on how much time Gorham wants to give Adore the Gold between starts, the Fountain of Youth, Louisiana Derby, or a March 17 stakes such as the Rebel or Tampa Bay Derby are the logical possibilities.

Source: DRF 2-5-07 "Nobiz Like Shobiz enjoys flexible schedule" (http://drf.com/news/article/82362.html)

caffeinated
Feb. 6, 2007, 07:40 AM
A very, very solid field! It should be a great race!


excellent.... one of my co-workers is convinced Zanjero will be the horse to win the derby, perhaps it's time for a friendly bet... heh.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 6, 2007, 09:20 AM
excellent.... one of my co-workers is convinced Zanjero will be the horse to win the derby, perhaps it's time for a friendly bet... heh.

Interesting. We'll I won't be shocked if the clear grinder in this field - Teuflesberg with Canadian leading rider Emma-Jayne Wilson makes a lot of noise in this race. He'll be making his 13th start and while he has been exceptionally hit or miss (just 3-1-1 on the board) what he brings is experience.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 6, 2007, 11:53 AM
The BloodHorse has their Top 15 (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37439) following the weekend action with a few changes. The new list as of Feb 5, 2007 and their likely next race:


1— Nobiz Like Shobiz: G2-Fountain of Youth
2—Ravel: TBD
3— Street Sense: G2-Hutcheson Stakes
4—Any Given Saturday: Sam Davis (Feb 17)
5—Circular Quay: G3-Risen Star
6— Hard Spun: Southwest
7—Great Hunter: TBD
8— Drums of Thunder: TBD
9— Liquidity: TBD
10—Scat Daddy: TBD
11—Stormello: TBD
12— Notional: G3-Risen Star
13— Adore the Gold: TBD
14—Zanjero: G3-Risen Star
15—C P West: TBD

Also in the G3-Risen Star and mentioned: Buffalo Man

And in this Saturday’s Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct will be New York-bred Lawrence the Roman, who has been "demolishing state-breds".

They also make mention of Curlin:


Saturday at Gulfstream brought some new exciting faces into the picture. There doesn’t seem to be much chance of Curlin making the Derby (at least with a legitimate shot of winning) with his only career start coming in a seven-furlong maiden race on Saturday. But the son of Smart Strike had jaws dropping with his 12 3/4-length romp in 1:22 1/5, despite racing very wide and not changing leads. This was a freaky performance.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 6, 2007, 10:10 PM
2007 Derby Future Wager


The mutuel field, which includes all three-year-olds not listed on a 23-horse roster for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), has been installed as the 7-to-2 morning-line favorite for pool one of the Kentucky Derby future wager, which opens at noon EST on Thursday.

The wager is entering its ninth year, and the mutuel field has been favored in pool one each time. The 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby will take place on May 5 at Churchill Downs.


Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Pool One - as of Tuesday Feb 6, 2007 (Odds will change)

Adore the Gold 20-to1
Any Given Saturday 20-to-1
Belgravia 20-to-1
Buffalo Man 30-to-1
Circular Quay 15-to-1
Day Pass 15-to-1
Dreaming of Anna (filly) 15-to-1
Drums of Thunder 30-to-1
E Z Warrior 15-to-1
Exhale 20-to-1
Forefathers 20-to-1
Great Hunter 30-to-1
Hard Spun 20-to-1
Lawrence the Roman 30-to-1
Liquidity 20-to-1
Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-to-1
Notional 15-to-1
Out of Gwedda 30-to-1
Ravel 15-to-1
Scat Daddy 30-to-1
Stormello 20-to-1
Street Sense 12-to-1
Zanjero 30-to-1
All other three-year-olds 7-to-2

Pool one wagering continues through Sunday at 6 p.m. EST. Pool two wagering is scheduled for March 8-11. The final pool is set for April 12-15

As an aside, what is exceedingly odd is that the Kentuckyderby.com site had not been updated for 2007 yet they release this information - what's up with that?

Slewdledo
Feb. 6, 2007, 11:28 PM
Don't know about the Derby site, but someone on another forum posted that they received an entry on Hard Spun through their Virtual Stable. For a $2million race run this Thursday.

Oops. :winkgrin:

Kenike
Feb. 7, 2007, 01:50 AM
LOL Slew!!

Gosh, I'm loving how this is shaping up. It'll be interesting to see how it all goes....

Glimmerglass
Feb. 7, 2007, 12:02 PM
Regarding another entry in the already "full loaded" Grade-3 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risen_Star_Stakes) on Saturday ...


D. Wayne Lukas may be back, baby. In Sunday's Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Robert Yates rated the 13 best 3-year-old thoroughbreds stabled at Oaklawn. Six of his 13 are trained by Lukas. Highest-ranked among the six, at No. 6, was Starbase, who is expected to run in the Risen Star this Saturday at Fair Grounds.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 7, 2007, 12:08 PM
Don't know about the Derby site, but someone on another forum posted that they received an entry on Hard Spun through their Virtual Stable. For a $2million race run this Thursday.

Interesting but obviously a big glitch ;)

Hard Spun developed a cold in the last couple of weeks and was decided he should skip going to New Orleans and just stay at Oaklawn in Arkansas.. Accordingly he'll be racing in the $250,000 Southwest on Feb. 19.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 7, 2007, 12:38 PM
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/

Frog
Feb. 7, 2007, 12:43 PM
Any Derby hopefuls out there have a decent, Derby-winning sounding name? One Funny Cide in my lifetime is enough!

Slewdledo
Feb. 7, 2007, 02:04 PM
Frog, not a fan of Nobiz Like Shobiz's name? ;)

The nominations thus far are a little light on good names (Dancin Buddha? Eat Em Alive? Felonious Monk? Upjumpdaboogieman?). Some of the names I like -

Belgravia
Black Seventeen
Clued In
Deliberately (A Phipps horse, of course!)
Flashstorm
Go All In
Grasshopper (yes, Grasshopper! Wouldn't that be cute?)
Marchfield
Mint Slewlep :winkgrin:
No Reply
Paco :D
Song of Navarone
Stormello
Vista Moon
Yellowstone
Zanjero

lizathenag
Feb. 7, 2007, 02:19 PM
You left out Great Hunter which certainly has a classic sound.

and think of all the good foal names you could come up with.

but then the name doesn't matter that much.

my good event horse (from the 60s) had a relative named Bean Platter who was quite a star. . .

also Ravel (which does not sound like unravel)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 7, 2007, 02:53 PM
also Ravel (which does not sound like unravel)

Pronounced as [ ruh-vel ]

Named for the French composer, Joseph-Maurice Ravel (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=3335230) (1875 - 1937) with his famed orchestral work, "Bolero", of which is perhaps best known for its use with Bo Derek in the movie "10" ;)

As for Nobiz Like Shobiz, his name makes perfect sense and is in fact a fitting tribute to his owner: Elizabeth J. Valando's late husband Tommy Valando was a Broadway theatre producer and owner of music publishing business (e.g., Fiddler on the Roof). They also owned the 1990 Breeders' Cup JV winner and 1990 Eclipse 2-yr old Colt, Fly So Free.

Names are what they are and I think the stories behind them make it all the more interesting. If every horse was a one word name it would be so bland: "Here comes Angry on the outside challenged by Cement and right behind him Pencil" ugh

Up above in a prior post there was Birdbirdistheword having a Vietnam Vet association ...

lizathenag
Feb. 7, 2007, 03:22 PM
actually I think of Torvill & Dean perform Bolero at 1984 Winter Olympics (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7_MtwtvY0)

holmes
Feb. 7, 2007, 03:24 PM
actually I think of Torvill & Dean perform Bolero at 1984 Winter Olympics (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7_MtwtvY0)

Christopher Dean used to be my neighbour - I kept my ponies in his field!

So what about Street Sense - good win in the BCJ last year?

Glimmerglass
Feb. 7, 2007, 04:36 PM
The Associated Press (Richard Rosenblatt)Top 15 list as of Wed Feb 7, 2007 (http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/state/16644923.htm)

(abridged)


(1.) Nobiz Like Shobiz (2.) Street Sense (3.) Great Hunter (4.) Hard Spun (5.) Scat Daddy (6.) Ravel (7.) Stormello (8.) Circular Quay (9.) Came to Pass (10). Dreaming of Anna (f) (11.) Chelokee (12.) Drums of Thunder (13.) Liquidity (14.) Notional (15.) E Z Warrior

Interesting. This is the first list I've seen with the filly of Anna on it within the top 15. Also to list Michael Matz trained Chelokee is curious. While he's put in some strong efforts they haven't been against significant company and he's untested in any graded stakes. To put him ahead of Drums of Thunder does raise one's brow as to where the the writer (Richard Rosenblatt) is going with that ....

The BloodHorse/Steve Haskin 2-7-07 has a Future Wager Analysis in (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37459). It is an interesting read .. example :


7 - Dreaming of Anna (f) (15-1) – This is a terrible line on a front-running filly who wired a below average field in the BC. How she can be half the odds of a classy grade I-winner like Great Hunter is befuddling. If you want to take a shot at 40 or 50-1, that’s one thing. This is nothing against her – she’s an extremely talented filly, but the odds are out of whack, even if she wins debut on Saturday.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 7, 2007, 04:45 PM
The first scratch from the big, solid field in this weekend's Rising Star Stakes ...

Buffalo Man has scratched after getting the very poor far outside post of 14; he now will instead race Monday Feb 12th in the Ocala Breeders' Sales (OBS) Championship Stakes (http://www.obssales.com/OBSPAGES/STK2007OVR.pdf). Race 6 at 1 1/16 mile for $100,000 all entries at 122 lbs; limited to a field of 14 with Buffalo Man drawing the 5 PP.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 8, 2007, 12:38 PM
Considering, as Linny said, Curlin won by 12-14 lengths after running in the middle of the track down the stretch he was a monster on the loose in that grouping. No idea if he'll run at 1 1/4 and clearly with time against him getting up to speed (no pun intended) plus history against every horse ever having not raced at 2-yrs old in the Derby it will be interesting if he becomes even a contender ...

Ah, but the question becomes - did Jess "I'll sue you and your mother if I overpaid" Jackson pay a premium? :D

TB Times 2-8-07 "Jackson, Sanan, and Bolton team up to buy impressive maiden winner Curlin" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/February/07/Jackson-Sanan-and-Bolton-team-up-to-buy-impressive-maiden-winner-Curlin.aspx)

excerpt:


Jess Jackson, Satish Sanan, and George Bolton have privately purchased a majority interest in the three-year-old Smart Strike colt Curlin, who won his debut at Gulfstream Park by 12 3/4 lengths on Saturday, for an undisclosed amount.

Midnight Cry Stable, which consists of Lexington attorneys Shirley Cunningham Jr. and Bill Gallion, retained an interest in Curlin, who was trained by Helen Pitts for his debut.

Steve Asmussen will train Curlin for the new partnership, said John Moynihan, bloodstock advisor for Jackson.

Trainer Ken McPeek bought Curlin at the 2005 Keeneland September yearling sale on behalf of Midnight Cry Stable for $57,000. The colt was consigned by Eaton Sales.

“I found him late in the sale, and I thought he was a beautiful-bodied colt, a real standout at that point of the sale,” McPeek said on Wednesday.

It seems rather apropos that Jess would buy the colt in partnership with two attorneys ...

Glimmerglass
Feb. 8, 2007, 01:11 PM
While I'm very pro-Tagg and Nobiz it might be a tad early to declare them the winner of the roses but Jon White at Xpress Bet comes close to saying that (http://www.xpressbet.com/Mjwarchive.aspx?view=447&month=02&year=2007) (as spied by equidaily.com)


Speaking of Go for Gin, it is interesting how his first start as a 3-year-old was similar to Nobiz Like Shobiz’s. In his first start at 3, Go for Gin won the Holy Bull (known then as the Preview Stakes) while earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.

Tagg is an old-school horseman. You will hear a superlative from him about as often as we see an eclipse. Which makes what he said to Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman after the Holy Bull all the more impressive.

“He’s a lovely, lovely horse,” Tagg said. “When I first laid eyes on him, I told Mrs. Valando he was the most magnificent horse I’d ever seen.”

I happen to believe we saw the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner last Saturday in Nobiz Like Shobiz. In an email that I received, Gary West of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram said that he also thought we saw the Kentucky Derby winner last Saturday. Only West feels it’s Ravel, not Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 9, 2007, 01:53 PM
An early pick for who will win the Derby:

Art Wilson at the (CA) Whittier Daily News Feb 9, 2007 (http://www.whittierdailynews.com/sports/ci_5190780):


Ravel early Derby pick

Garrett Gomez liked Ravel the first day he rode the 3-year-old colt, guiding the son of Fusaichi Pegasus to a 3 1/2-length maiden victory on Dec. 3 at Hollywood Park.

He likes him even more now after Ravel began his sophomore campaign with a one-length victory over the highly-regarded Liquidity in last Saturday's Grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

Ravel, one of trainer Todd Pletcher's many talented 3-year-olds, heads the list of contenders in this year's first installment of the Wilson Derby Rankings.

Ravel recorded a 102 Beyer in the Sham - the fastest by a 3-year-old this year. Granted, it's early, but he was distancing himself from Liquidity in the final sixteenth.

In terms of ranking, Art lists Nobiz Like Shobiz at a mere 4th: quote "Looked like a nice colt during his gate-to-wire victory in last Saturday's Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park."

Glimmerglass
Feb. 10, 2007, 04:53 PM
It certainly bites that the big races at the Fair Grounds today (Risen Star Stakes, among others) isn't aired on youbet.net nor will replays be available on calracing.com ..... :(

Glimmerglass
Feb. 10, 2007, 07:33 PM
Today's results from the Risen Star Stakes $300,000 Grade-3 at 1 1/16 Miles

Results: final time 1:44.18

1st - Notional
2nd - Imawildandcrazyguy
3rd - Zanjero

Scratched: Buffalo Man and Teuflesberg

4 - Izzie's Halo
5 - Circular Quay
6 - Westwon
7 - Beta Capo
8 - Spankey Come Home
9 - Scat Thief
10 - Makeithapencaptain
11 - Weather Warning
12 - Slew's Tizzy

Laurierace
Feb. 10, 2007, 10:02 PM
Well its not as bad as it looks. He had to pull up to avoid a fallen rider and never really got back into gear. Its tough to run your race when you are dodging bodies.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 10, 2007, 10:23 PM
Well its not as bad as it looks. He had to pull up to avoid a fallen rider and never really got back into gear. Its tough to run your race when you are dodging bodies.

TB Times Sat Feb 10, 2007 "Notional avoids trouble, wins Risen Star Stakes" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/February/10/Notional-avoids-trouble-wins-Risen-Star-Stakes.aspx)

excerpt


[Notational] the California-based shipper avoided a spill that unseated jockey James Graham and stamped himself a possible contender for the Triple Crown trail with a win that also impressed jockey Robby Albarado.

The spill compromised the trip of highly regarded Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) hopeful Circular Quay, who finished fifth.

Albarado and Notional were preparing to gain command when, turning for home, jockey John Velazquez was forced to steer Circular Quay out to avoid jockey James Graham, who was unseated when Slew’s Tizzy clipped heals with Makeithappencaptain.

Circular Quay, the 2006 Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner and 7-to-5 favorite, closed late after managing to avoid Graham, who immediately tried to cover himself up on the track.

“It all happened right next to me,” Velazquez said. “I said my prayers. I didn’t go down. That’s what I’ve got to say about this race.”


Multiple stakes placed Imawildandcrazyguy rallied from tenth to finish second, a head in front of Zanjero.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 10, 2007, 10:48 PM
A well beaten third place by Dreaming of Anna likely will end any dreams of going to the Kentucky Derby by the previously unbeaten, Eclipse winning filly:

DRF 2-10-07 "Dream Rush leaves 'Anna' far back" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82501.html)


Dreaming of Anna, making her first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies to complete an undefeated 2-year-old campaign, chased Dream Rush from the outset of the 6 1/2-furlong Old Hat before tiring through the final furlong to finish a well-beaten third.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 11, 2007, 04:19 PM
Just purchased for an undisclosed sum, Lawrence the Roman, was the hot commodity going into the Whirlaway Stakes. Venturing out of restricted New York-bred company the horse that had been a runaway success received a lot of cold water on those dreams of making it super big ...

Feb 10, 2007 TB Times "Summer Doldrums scores first stakes win with convincing Whirlaway romp" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/February/10/Summer-Doldrums-scores-first-stakes-win-with-convincing-Whirlaway-romp.aspx)


Previously undefeated Lawrence the Roman, sent off as the overwhelming 1-to-2 favorite in the six-horse field, tracked the pace from three wide in third.

Lawrence the Roman made a brief bid on the turn but faded to finish fifth in his first start since IEAH Stables purchased a majority interest in the bay Point Given colt earlier this week.

The convincing winner, Summer Doldrums, by 5 1/4 lengths is going to be ponted to the Gotham Stakes (G3) on March 10 also at Aqueduct.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 11, 2007, 11:46 PM
Worthy of a peek of the race on www.calracing.com/replays.php is Noble Court winning in a drive at the wire to take the Grade 3 $150,000 San Vicente Stakes!

For a graded stakes, prep race for the Kentucky Derby this was a very small field at just 5 starters albeit 2 scratches.

Noble Court's effort was all the more interesting owing to the hardships he had including tossing a shoe early!


Noble Court knifed between horses on the turn and grabbed the lead entering the stretch, but was fully extended to hold off Law Breaker and win by a neck in 1:23.12 for seven furlongs over a track labeled wet-fast. Half Famous was another 1 3/4 lengths back in third in the five-horse field.

Hurry Up Austin was scratched at the gate. According to Dr. Steve Buttgenbach, the track veterinarian, Hurry Up Austin twisted his left rear shoe, and subsequently suffered superficial cuts on the back of both front legs.

Noble Court came back from the race absent his left front shoe, which amplified jockey Corey Nakatani’s belief that the colt “was slipping” on the surface.

“I thought he’d run a little better,” said trainer John Sadler, who said he was “mollified” that Noble Court was able to fight through the surface absent a shoe and prevail.Source: DRF Feb 12, 2007 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82516.html)

His next start: the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 17.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 11, 2007, 11:54 PM
The Lexington Herald-Leader takes a look back at one of the most heart-warming sporting events on television: ABC Sports capturing Carl Nafzinger (who was wearing a mic) telling the frail Mrs. Frances Genter that her horse Unbridled won the 1990 Kentucky Derby :)

Herald Leader 2-11-07 "Kiss sealed his spot in Derby lore" (http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sports/horse_racing/16673712.htm)


In full view of the TV audience, Nafzger described the progress Unbridled made through the Churchill Downs homestretch:

"He's taking the lead! Mrs. Genter, you're going to win the Kentucky Derby ... There he is, there he is! You've won the Kentucky Derby, Mrs. Genter. I love you!" Then, the kiss [to her head].

Frances Genter passed away in November of 1992 at the age of 94, her stable lives on as part of her estate, managed by her son-in-law. Her first stakes winner was Swiv, purchased in 1941 for $3,600

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2007, 12:18 AM
The first Kentucky Derby wagering pool closed today (Sunday Feb 11, 2007) and it is very surprising to see what the final odds were for Notional :

BloodHorse 2-11-07 (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37524): originally listed with ML odds of 12-1 this colt, who looked wonderful in his Risen Star Stakes vistory, yet dropped to final odds of 27-1. Meaning if he wins those who backed him in this first pool stand to net $56.60 for each $2 wager.

Yet Lawrence the Roman is still given closing odds of 35-1 despite looking like anything but like a Kentucky Derby likely winner on Saturday when he was seriously defeated. Odd!

lizathenag
Feb. 12, 2007, 12:09 PM
The first Kentucky Derby wagering pool closed today (Sunday Feb 11, 2007)

to be exact, it closed at 3 PM pacific time. I know this because I was at closing day at Golden Gate Fields for my 55th birthday party (The 8th race was the Happy 55th Liza race and I got my pic taken with my friends in the winners circle which was fun but I digress).

Anyway, I finally figured out who I was going to bet on at about 2:50 not realizing that the pool closed at 3.

Then went to three windows because the first teller didn't know how to do it, and the second window had one of those bettor I want to kill (so can I bet $1 to win??? what is an exacta?? I don't know his number, just his name. . .)

So maybe I saved $50 and maybe I lost a lot by not getting my bets down.

we shall see.

nice day at the races though and a fun promotion.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2007, 12:21 PM
... I was at closing day at Golden Gate Fields for my 55th birthday party ...

Congrats!

So who would've you have taken for $50 to win?

Example, Any Give Saturday's payoff dropped dramatically from when it opened: from 20-1 to a final win odd of 14-1 thus $31.60 for a $2 bet. If he does win then I suppose you can kick yourself then for having missed the first chance to have made $790 ;)

A lot can happen between now and then ....

lizathenag
Feb. 12, 2007, 04:00 PM
So who would've you have taken for $50 to win?


I was going to bet $10 on Any Given Saturday and Ravel and Octave (in the Oaks).

my partner was betting on Drums of Thunder and I forget who in the Oaks.

It was a fun day at the races and I recommend a birthday party there for a fun day.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2007, 04:10 PM
The first scratch from the big, solid field in this weekend's Rising Star Stakes ...

Buffalo Man has scratched after getting the very poor far outside post of 14; he now will instead race Monday Feb 12th in the Ocala Breeders' Sales (OBS) Championship Stakes (http://www.obssales.com/OBSPAGES/STK2007OVR.pdf). Race 6 at 1 1/16 mile for $100,000 all entries at 122 lbs; limited to a field of 14 with Buffalo Man drawing the 5 PP.

The actual race video appears to be viewable here (http://www.horseauctions.com/obs-day1/)

(The final results for the 1 1/16 mi distance was in 1:44.02 just 1/5 off the track record)

1 - Buffalo Man (with Prado up)
2 - No Reply
3 - Green Vegas

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2007, 04:42 PM
The top 12 list from NBC Sports reporter Kenny Rice - a very nice guy I've met at Rolex before:

Top 10 from Feb 12, 2007 at 2pm; NBC Sports (http://www.nbcsports.com/sports/1039312/detail.html)


1 - Ravel
2 - Nobiz Like Shobiz
3 - Street Sense
4 - Notional
5 - Hard Spun
6 - Great Hunter
7 - Summer Doldrums (this weekedn's big winner in the Whirlaway Stakes)
8 - Circular Quay
9 - Drums of Thunder
10 - Scat Daddy
11 - Liquidity
12 - Adore The Gold

Also: ANY GIVEN SUNDAY; PEGASUS WIND ; EXHALE ; CHELOKEE ; STORMELLO; BELGRAVIA ; BUFFALO MAN

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2007, 05:00 PM
Interesting ....

"Oh, hey about that deal to buy your possible-Kentucky-Derby-entry-but now-unlikely-horse .. well since he was a dud in the stakes race, I think we oughta cancell it" :)

Ok, not so simplistic but you get the summary:

Thoroughbred Times 2-12-07 "Roman, IEAH Stables canceling Lawrence the Roman deal" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2007/February/12/Roman-IEAH-Stable-canceling-Lawrence-the-Roman-deal.aspx)


“Larry Roman felt bad about the way the horse performed in the race, and the race obviously wasn’t what everybody had in mind,” said Michael Sherack, vice president of investor relations for IEAH Stables. “He basically threw out the suggestion that the deal be unwound, that that would be in the best interest of all parties involved. It looks like that will happen. We’re putting the paperwork together, and that’s the route we’re going to go.”

“Larry just felt bad about the whole situation, and it was a noble thing to do,” Sherack said. “What we were looking for and what Larry was looking for—and what everyone was looking for—was for him to be competitive at the next level and to give an indication that he is a horse that has classic potential, and the horse wasn’t up to it for whatever reason.”

A big part of me hopes that the horse is put into another graded stakes race before the Derby and rebounds with a big win :D

Linny
Feb. 12, 2007, 05:31 PM
IMO, Larry should keep his money. Of course, it's awfully noble of him to undo the deal after a poor race. Imagine if that happened more often. No one would know who owned what!

The fact is that at this time of year, alot of people are hauling out their checkbooks to buy Derby candidates. Most never make it. A few years ago Baffert bought Sort It Out after his Whirlaway win. If I had a decent colt, I'd sell. The odds of getting to Churchill are extremely slim, even from here. Want proof, grab the list of future pool #1 horses over the last few years. Many of the horses belived to be pretty nice horses failed to even make it.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2007, 05:37 PM
IMO, Larry should keep his money. Of course, it's awfully noble of him to undo the deal after a poor race. Imagine if that happened more often.

I fully agree that it is exceedingly "nice" of Larry to do it.

What if the horse had won the race and gone on to win the Triple Crown - would've IEAH tossed him some bonus money? Yea right :)

It would be one thing if there was a drafted agreement with some 'escape clause' that allowed the transaction to be voided if the horse failed to finish in the top three or something like that in the first start following the sale.

Even that would be a highly unusual clause by racing standards.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2007, 05:41 PM
The Daily Racing Form has the Risen Star Stakes replay (http://www.drf.com/video/video.html) available via this link - I don't know where else anyone could've found the video ;)

!!CAUTION!! For those who don't know the outcome - a front running horse does clip heels and tosses the jockey well into the tightly bunched runners Both horses that clipped each other continue on and finish.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2007, 09:23 PM
Some of the Beyer figs related to this past weekend's efforts and what it means to some experts:


The bottom line with Notional, however, is that the 92 Beyer Speed Figure he got in the Risen Star, and the 94 he earned winning last month's San Rafael, just aren't good enough for him to be considered a more serious Derby threat.

On the other hand, Summer Doldrums ran fast in the Whirlaway, which he took in decisive fashion after disputing a solid early pace for his third win from his last four starts. And the 106 Beyer Figure that Summer Doldrums was awarded in the Whirlaway meant that on Saturday, at the 1 1/16-mile distance of both races, Summer Doldrums was a little more than eight lengths better than Notional was in the Risen Star.Source: DRF 2-12-07 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82533.html)

Also ...

Classic Spotlight: Any Given Saturday (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/spotlight_AnyGivenSaturday.asp)


Adding Triple Crown firepower to Any Given Saturday’s dam side is his second dam, stakes-winning Whow, a daughter of Hall of Fame member Spectacular Bid. The Bid, Horse of the Year in 1980, won the previous year’s Derby and Preakness and ran third to Coastal in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). Whow, out of the Hollywood Oaks-winning Hooplah, is a half-sister to three graded stakes winners, including Afifa, who equaled the track record at Hollywood in the nine-furlong Vanity Handicap (gr. I) in 1978.

The late Second of June was directly out of Whow

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2007, 09:54 AM
Summer Doldrums to start in the Grade 3 $200k Gotham Stakes [March 10th] next! Not previously cited was his effort this past weekend in the Whirlaway was a stakes record.


Summer Doldrums, a non-descript 2-year-old, had his coming-out party last Saturday at Aqueduct, rolling to a 5 1/4-length victory in the Whirlaway Stakes. He ran 1 1/16 miles in a stakes-record 1:42.23 and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 106, the best number of any 3-year-old routing this year.Source: DRF 2-12-07 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82527.html)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2007, 12:58 PM
I'll point this Top 10 list out as it has at least one entry that is well .. lets just say the staff writer must march to his own beat ;)

Philadelphia Inquirer 2-13-07 - Craig Donnelly's top 10 (http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16684765.htm)


1. Hard Spun
2. Street Sense
3. Nobiz Like Shobiz

4. Cowtown Cat | trained by Todd Pletcher: Captured Gulfstream allowance test in spectacular style; look for continued development.

5. Any Given Saturday
6. Day Pass
7. Belgravia
8. Circular Quay
9. Notional
10. Exhale

Others to consider: Great Hunter, Ravel, Minefield.

Cowtown Cat over say Ravel? Hmmmm ... he was purchased for $1.5 million as a 2-year-old last year, has won twice in his last four starts, although in the Swale Stakes he was routed: Adore the Gold pulled 6 1/4 lengths clear of 3-2 favorite Cowtown Cat.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2007, 04:25 PM
www.Equidaily.com spied this bit which is about the only 'trash talking' that I've seen for this year's Derby so far ...

John Pierson 'Thoroughbred Racing Analyst' 2-12-07 (http://www.johnpiesen.com/index.asp?id=12)


A case in point is a colt named Ravel.

I in the Sham Stakes on Feb. 3 at Santa Anita, and was very happy to see him win at $7.20. But he was lucky to do so. He had the softest trip from the one-hole you'll ever see, saved every inch of ground, and angled out in mid-stretch to wear down the leader, and win by a length.

Now, I'm seeing that Ravel, off that race, is being picked first or second in many Derby Top Tens.

Amazing!

[b]Let it be said here that if Ravel ever beats Hard Spun in a meaningful race, I will be glad to share Ravel's oats.

Well I'd back Ravel to beat Hard Spun :)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 15, 2007, 09:56 AM
Cobalt Blue, Merv Griffin's horse, per the BloodHorse 2-15-07 (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37573), is being suggested as possibly on the Derby trail. However if you watch the replay from Wednesday's allowance race at Santa Anita I have to ask "where's the beef?"

Yep, he won but did you see how often Garrett Gomez went to the whip in the stretch that make that 1-length win happen? By comparison I think we've all seen a lot of horses this year crush their respective field in the lane with a mere reminder at best by the jockey.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 16, 2007, 04:55 PM
Key races on tap for this weekend, although none are graded stakes races which is of course key as the rule primarily is that only the top 20 horses, ranked by graded stakes money, will get into the Derby:

Saturday Feb 17, 2007
Sam F. Davis Stakes; Tampa at 8 1/2 furlongs (1 1/16 miles)
Texas Stallion Stakes; Houston at 8 furlongs (1-mile)
Turf Paradise Derby; Turf Paradise (AZ) 8 1/2 furlongs
Borderland Derby; El Paso, Texas at 8 1/2 furlongs

Sunday Feb 18, 2007
(none)

Monday Feb 19, 2007
Southwest Stakes; at Oaklawn Park 8-furlongs

Running in the Sam F. Davis, most notably will be Any Given Saturday, who then will ramp up to the Kentucky Derby via Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1). The same path as taken by Bluegrass Cat last year.

Running in the Turf Paradise Derby will be Tie Rod who won the "Rattlesnake Stakes" on January 26 by a huge 10 3/4 lengths.

Running in the Boarderland Derby will be Western Prize and Topper Power, both prior stakes winners.

Running in the Southwest Stakes most notably will be Hard Spun the horse with the highest number of victories (4) without a lifetime loss in this year's class.



When it comes to that necessary evil of money, the horses with the most graded stakes money and nominated to this year's Kentucky Derby are, as of 2-16-07, are found here (http://www.bloodhorse.com/images/earnings.gif) with unlikely Derby starter, Dreaming of Anna, topping the list. Tiz Wonderful also would be removed from consideration on the list too due to injury.

Interesting to see Holy Roman Emperor, owned by Susan Magnier and trained by Aidan O’Brien ranked at number 4 with USD$748,121.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 16, 2007, 05:00 PM
Associated Press 2-16-07 "Queen Elizabeth II Might Attend Kentucky Derby" (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37599)


The queen has visited Kentucky several times, but has never attended the Derby. British royalty has attended the Derby in the past: Princess Margaret, sister of the queen, attended the 1974 Derby with her husband, Lord Snowdon.

I suspect she'll lay a few quid on Nobiz Like Shobiz ;)

holmes
Feb. 16, 2007, 09:10 PM
The U.S. Secret Service is preparing for a "probable" visit from Queen Elizabeth II to Kentucky around the first weekend in May

That old mare is made for 6 furlongs, she will struggle with the longer distance. :D :D :D :D

VirginiaBred
Feb. 17, 2007, 02:47 PM
(From the Barbaro updates)
NoBiz Like ShoBiz worked this morning 5/8ths in 1:01. Barclay was very happy with the work, he did it easily, went very well. Barclay also noted that both Showing Up and Funny Cide are back to galloping a mile and a half every day. Both will need about a month's worth of breezing to get ready to run.

Linny
Feb. 17, 2007, 03:21 PM
That old mare is made for 6 furlongs, she will will struggle with the longer distance. :D :D :D :D


Lilibet has covered plenty of ground in her day. She's "Stayed like a mother-in-law" as Michael Wrona would say.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 17, 2007, 05:14 PM
Running in the Sam F. Davis, most notably will be Any Given Saturday, who then will ramp up to the Kentucky Derby via Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1). The same path as taken by Bluegrass Cat last year.

That was a decent effort by Any Given Saturday in the Sam F. Davis to take the win. The field was pretty thin but he did what he was supposed to do - hang with the crowd, let someone else take the lead, listen to the jockey and then turn it on (not 100% required) to sprint away from the field.

I would've loved it if Marylou Whitney's Singapore Swing, a son of Fusaichi Pegasus, had shown some presence but he simply wasn't a factor in this race at all.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 17, 2007, 06:37 PM
Running in the Turf Paradise Derby will be Tie Rod who won the "Rattlesnake Stakes" on January 26 by a huge 10 3/4 lengths.

Tie Rod does it again :D

He takes the Turf Paradise Derby at 1 1/16 miles in a time of 1:43.91, this is his 3rd stakes victory (Brian Barenscheer Juvenile Stakes and Rattlesnake Stakes his priors)

This was the first time, in 9 lifetime starts, he's been stretched out past 1-mile.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 17, 2007, 07:00 PM
More on The Queen relative her last visit to Kentucky (October 11, 1984) for racing ...

Courier-Journal 2-17-07 "1984 visit to Keeneland a 'special' day" (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070217/NEWS01/702170464/1008)


Bassett remembers people came from all over the Midwest and South, many waving little British flags in the crowd of 12,666 on a Thursday afternoon.

"I think probably former Brits brought their children," he said. "As she walked through the crowd, there was always a very respectful and polite applause."

According to www.royal.gov.uk, the queen has about 25 horses in training each season. On occasion, her horses and racing silks -- purple jacket with gold lacings, scarlet sleeves and black cap -- have appeared in America, where ownership is listed as Her Majesty, The Queen.

And with the possible new visit:

Courier-Journal 2-17-07 "Queen may grace Derby" (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070217/NEWS01/702170444)


All four of the monarch's previous trips to Kentucky have involved stays at Lane's End Farm outside Versailles. It is owned by William S. Farish, former ambassador to Great Britain and one-time board chairman of Churchill Downs Inc. Farish was traveling yesterday and couldn't be reached for comment.

According to records from the track, eight U.S. presidents have appeared at the Kentucky Derby. Only one -- Richard Nixon in 1969 -- saw the race while he was in office.

holmes
Feb. 18, 2007, 06:20 PM
I believe she had a couple mares sent to Calumet to be bred - not sure if it was to Alydar but is more than likely!

Glimmerglass
Feb. 18, 2007, 07:20 PM
Worth pointing out:

Any Given Saturday won the Sam F. Davis in 1:44 1/5 carrying 122 lbs over 1 1/16 mile

Tie Rod won the Turf Paradise Derby in 1:43.91 carrying 122 lbs over 1 1/16 mile

It is somewhat doubtful that Tie Rod will go to the Kentucky Derby, his next start perhaps will be Mar 24th in the Tempe Handicap on the grass! So a perfect example of what else is out there: smaller track, lower national profile and off the radar yet gelding Rie Rod doesn't read the Daily Racing Form and still puts in as equally as impressive of a charge as top-ten ranked Any Given Saturday ;)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 19, 2007, 09:59 AM
A very nice article on Hard Spun and his dam, Turkish Tryst:

Philadelphia Inquirer 2-19-07 "Hard Spun: Gifted son of breeder's beloved mare" (http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16730499.htm)

excerpt


By that time, Hard Spun was a yearling, a lively one, with a protective mother. That's the description by Brushwood farm manager Brooks Adams, who foaled Hard Spun there, just off Sugartown Road, and has his own special memory of the horse.

"He kicked the hat off my head one day with a front foot - just raised up and smacked the hat," Adams said.

He recalls that near-miss without animosity. It's a hazard of his profession. A little excitability isn't a terrible thing in a racehorse, said Adams, who remembers that Hard Spun also got a little excited in the paddock before his second race at Delaware Park.

"You don't want him to just mosey on out there like Uncle Joe's plowhorse," Adams said. "You want him to have a little spunk."

In fact, Adams had suggested to Betty Moran that this yearling might have potential on the track.

"I sort of respect what they do at home [on her farm], whether they're a leader in the pack, whether they have a good stride in the field," Betty Moran said. "A lot of good horsemen taught me that years ago."

Pronzini
Feb. 19, 2007, 10:07 AM
I fully agree that it is exceedingly "nice" of Larry to do it.

What if the horse had won the race and gone on to win the Triple Crown - would've IEAH tossed him some bonus money? Yea right :)

It would be one thing if there was a drafted agreement with some 'escape clause' that allowed the transaction to be voided if the horse failed to finish in the top three or something like that in the first start following the sale.

Even that would be a highly unusual clause by racing standards.

Personally I think it was silly of him. IEAH undoubtedly hustled him for a piece of the horse. If Lawrence the Roman had won by 10, they wouldn't pay him anymore. Also, more likely than not, the horse was syndicated among the IEAH clients for a total more than the amount Larry got. Larry wasn't the only one who had to give money back!

Glimmerglass
Feb. 19, 2007, 10:59 AM
Personally I think it was silly of him.

re: Lawrence Roman and cancelling the sale of Lawrence The Roman

You just never know what the deal is when a horse is named for you personally. Roman is "a third-generation plumbing contractor who owns WDF Inc., one New York City's leading plumbing and mechanical contracting services companies, is a longtime owner of Standardbred horses"

So he's relatively wealthy and successful and already let the horse get away once: LTR was sold at the August Saratoga yearling sale in August 2005 for $22k. He bought LTR back for $35k in March 2006 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales auction. His remark was that he would've paid $200k to get him back.

So he put in a dud performance. It happens. It doesn't change the fact that his race prior, the Damon Runyon Stakes, he won over 1 1/16 mi in a solid time of 1:44.48 and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 96. He's come out of the Whirlaway in fine condition and without any signs of physical problems.

Accordingly I think it would be best, as I said in a prior post, for Roman to have the horse race in another Derby prep race and see if it was merely a bad bounce. It would be poetic justice to win solidly and make IEAH sorry they mutually voided the majority sale.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 19, 2007, 10:58 PM
It will be interesting to see how Hard Spun does when he runs Saturday in New Orleans. Rick Porter (who owned Rockport Harbor, and Round Pond) already was offered money by the Maktoums to sell him ..

Philadelphia Inquirer 1-12-07 "Hard Spun's promise faces test in New Orleans" (http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16440982.htm)

Oh, by the way, I'll take Teuflesberg to win tomorrow over Hard Spun.

Well I was giving the nod to Teuflesberg almost a month ago over Hard Spun in the scheduled race that ultimately both horses skipped - the Risen Star. Hard Spun has seemingly been lusted over by the Philly press who has been just itching to annoint the next champion local boy after Afleet Alex, Smart Jones and Barbaro.

AP 2-19-07 "Teuflesberg surprise winner in Southwest" (http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/other_sports/16735896.htm)

One of the simple facts they ignored is that Teuflesberg, a grinder, was making his 13th lifetime start vs. Hard Spun just his 5th. All that valuable, hard fought experience in stakes races does pay off. While Hard Spun was snoozing in his stall Christmas Eve of last year, Teuflesberg was winning the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds. He's been around and in the Southwest Stakes he was starting for the first time with blinkers off.


A son of Johannesburg bred in Kentucky by Richard Giapelli, Teuflesberg was sold for $9,000 at the 2005 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October sale. Teuflesberg was a seasoned stakes horse by the time he broke his maiden in his seventh career start, having five stakes outings, including second in the Sanford Stakes (gr. II), before finding his way into the winner's circle. Source: NTRA (http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=22310)

He now has 13 starts 4 wins.

Trainer Jamie Sanders, said that if Teuflesberg comes out of the Southwest in good order, he will likely make his next start in the Grade 3, $300,000 Rebel at Oaklawn on March 17. That is the final local prep for the Grade 2, $1 million Arkansas Derby.

Imagine this - and don't be shocked all - if he does start in the Kentucky Derby he'd be making his 16th lifetime start. While some of his compadres will "bring" with them a mere 5 or 6 starts worth of knowledge and experience ;)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 19, 2007, 11:09 PM
On the heels of other would-be Derby hopefulls getting boughtout - although who knows perhaps if his next start is a dud he'll be returned like Lawrence - comes Any Given Saturday:

2-19-07 "Padua Stables buys interest in Any Given Saturday" (http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=23516)

Price was undisclosed but a safe bet would be into the seven-figures


He sports a record of three wins from four races and earnings of $164,213. He is currently being pointed toward the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) March 17.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 20, 2007, 09:38 PM
"Teuflesberg a surprise to all but connections" (DRF 2-20-07) (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82691.html)

excerpt


The victory earned him a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 100.

"He did everything we knew he could do," Sanders said before shipping on Tuesday. "We had total confidence this colt would do what he did yesterday, eventually, when he got everything together. Every time he's run long, something's happened. And sometimes when he's run short, things have happened. He's been a very hard-luck horse. Finally, it all came together."

Worth pondering as often people are saying "well Sunny's Halo did it [winning the KY Derby with just two prior starts at 3-yrs old]" - true but there is a LOT more to Sunny's experience ....

BloodHorse 2-20-07 "Kentucky Derby Trail: Two for the Road" ("http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37646')


Now, we’re all aware by now that the only horse since 1947 to win the Derby off only two starts at 3 was Sunny’s Halo in 1983. It must also be remembered that Sunny’s Halo made 11 starts as a 2-year-old, and he went into the Derby off six straight two-turn races, two of which were at 1 1/8 miles. Horses nowadays who attempt it do not have that kind of seasoning and foundation.


Todd Pletcher said he was leaning that way with Sham (gr. III) winner Ravel, who would have a double whammy going into the Run for the Roses, with only four career starts. The last horse to accomplish that feat was Exterminator in 1918.

Exterminator, as we all know is amongst my favorite horses of all time, lives in the pantheon of greatest horses and was one of the toughest horses that ever stepped foot on a track. "Senator I knew Jack Kennedy ... you are no Jack Kennedy" ;)

This comment was made about Lawrence The Roman by The BloodHorse's Steve Haskin:


Giving IEAH their money back is something you never see in this sport, and Roman should be commended for his integrity. He said he wanted to crawl into a hole after the race, and for good reason. But horses, as quickly as they put you in that hole, have a way of pulling you out, and even though the New York-bred may be off the Derby trail, at least until a reason can be found for his performance, he should have many good days ahead of him, even if it means returning to state-bred company.

Another bullet who could enter the picture? These horses seem to shoot into the spot light because of brilliant one-time romps and I'm sure the phone is ringing like mad even before the trainer get's back to the barn:


Flying First Class, an eight-length maiden winner at six furlongs Monday at Oaklawn, earned a Beyer Figure of 107. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

Frog
Feb. 20, 2007, 09:54 PM
I can't say enough thank yous to Glimmerglass for keeping us updated on the Derby potentials. I wish I had time to keep up these days, and of course to get to the OTB! I had made up my mind to make some kind of future wager on the Derby this year (probably the field!), but didn't get around to it for Pool 1, and I haven't done my research so the reasonable person inside me says just forget about it. (The gambler in me, of course, always has a different side to the story).

I have to say that Teuflesberg probably rang a bell to many bettors looking for overlays! I also think experience looks good on a young horse with potential, although I guess time will tell who belongs in what class. I like to see a deal, and Teuflesberg was a deal even if he never makes another start.

And let's just take a moment to think about Smarty Jones (not that I really see any similarities other than the possible road to the Derby via the Southwest Stakes)- because I like Smarty Jones. I keep thinking back to this horse as we wait for new rising stars. I really think he was the real deal. If he had only raced at 4. I know everyone says that about every horse, but I swear Smarty Jones really had "it".

Alright I'm excited about the Derby now and I'm sorry for my rambling. These are exciting times. And I'm on my third glass of wine.

lizathenag
Feb. 20, 2007, 10:22 PM
Since Exterminator was a work horse rather than a race horse, he got race experience taking care of Sun Briar.

One of my favorites as well.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 20, 2007, 11:08 PM
Since Exterminator was a work horse rather than a race horse, he got race experience taking care of Sun Briar.

Exterminator (1915 - 1945) is buried with French-born and bred, Sun Briar (1915 - 1943) and his daughter, Suntinca (1929 - 1947) a Kentucky Oaks champion on a quiet patch of ground just beneath an old Ash tree in the Whispering Pines Pet Cemetery not too far from the Ross Zoo overlooking the Susquehanna [the name of my mare] and the City of Binghamton where all three were truly celebrated heroes in the local press and beyond.

I have several photos from my visits to his grave. A horse's head etched in the granite and all three horse’s names and dates of birth and death is all that gives notice. While still visited by many [fresh flower are often laid beside their grave] is it sad that so few driving by likely know that collectively you have winners of some of the most prestigious races to this day (Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks and Travers Stakes winner among many, many victories) peacefully laid to rest in eternal slumber.

Alibhai's Alibar
Feb. 21, 2007, 03:23 AM
The actual race video appears to be viewable here (http://www.horseauctions.com/obs-day1/)

(The final results for the 1 1/16 mi distance was in 1:44.02 just 1/5 off the track record)

1 - Buffalo Man (with Prado up)
2 - No Reply
3 - Green Vegas

Any idea if Buffalo Man still pointed toward the Fountain of Youth? I love this horse.

This was on Bloodhorse before his last race:

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37463


“We’re just trying to get a two-turn race into him before the Fountain of Youth (gr. II). That’s the main objective for now. We don’t have to ship so far and we’ve got Edgar (Prado) to ride him.”

Glimmerglass
Feb. 21, 2007, 08:51 AM
Any idea if Buffalo Man still pointed toward the Fountain of Youth? I love this horse.

Canadian-bred [via Stronach's Adena Springs] Buffalo Man has looked impressive with the Spectacular Bid Stakes and OBS race. The problem is his $0.00 graded stakes earnings to date. Accordingly he'll have to be pointed towards the same ones everyone else is now eyeing.

After the Ocala win:

Ocala's The Leader 2-14-07 (http://www.ocala.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070214/LEADER/70214012/1035/LEADER)

"He is a little bit behind the eight ball because he has no graded earnings," Gambolati said. If more than 20 horses are entered in the Derby, the 20 entrants with the most money earned in graded stakes are allowed to run.

Gambolati and his owners plan to counter that problem by running in two graded stakes between now and Derby day, the first Saturday in May.

"The Fountain of Youth is a possibility," Gambolati said. "We will have to see what is happening (with the horse.) It's only 19 days. That may be a little soon. We'll have to wait and see."

Gambolati is leaving nothing to chance. He has nominated Buffalo Man to races at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, Aqueduct, Hawthorne Park and Kentucky and Canada in addition to Gulfstream Park.

If he wins will they make a special desert in his name? :D Among the owners of Buffalo Man (via "Ol Memorial Stable") is Chris Sullivan, chairman of the board of Outback Restaurants. Just don't call Buffalo a blooming onion!

Glimmerglass
Feb. 21, 2007, 09:10 AM
I'll point this Top 10 list out as it has at least one entry that is well .. lets just say the staff writer must march to his own beat ;)

Philadelphia Inquirer 2-13-07 - Craig Donnelly's top 10 (http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16684765.htm)

Cowtown Cat over say Ravel? Hmmmm ... he was purchased for $1.5 million as a 2-year-old last year, has won twice in his last four starts, although in the Swale Stakes he was routed: Adore the Gold pulled 6 1/4 lengths clear of 3-2 favorite Cowtown Cat.

Just in case anyone thinks that Cowtown Cat's entry on the Philadelphia list was a fluke, error, what have you .. the horse is still "standing firm" on this week's list again :D

Philly Inquirer 2-20-07 - Craig Donnelly's "Kentucky Derby Watch" (http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16736764.htm)


4. Cowtown Cat Pletcher; Velasquez; Won Gulfstream allowance in spectacular style; look for continued progress.

Maybe Mr. Donnelly missed Cowtown's performance in the Swale Stakes ...

The listing of Belgravia at number 7 is baffling too but hey this is a list with Street Sense at No 1.

As an aside ... I don't think Belgravia, based at Hollywood Park, had his 2007 start as of yet:


Belgravia has been bought three times: for $190,000 at the Keeneland November 2004 sale; for $180,000 at the Keeneland September 2005 Yearling Sale; and for $2,000,000 at the Fasig-Tipton February 2006 Sale.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 21, 2007, 12:00 PM
Nobiz Like Shobiz is good to go for the Grade 2 $350,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes, but there was a chance for a change ...


Trainer Barclay Tagg originally wanted to send the son of Albert the Great out on Friday [Feb 16th] but the track was too muddy.

"He did exactly what I asked him to do," Tagg said. "It was right to my instructions: go five furlongs in about a minute, stay low on him past the wire and let him gallop out to six furlongs."

Tagg said if the colt had missed the work Saturday, he would have sent him to the Grade II, $600,000 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 10.

More on underappreciated Teuflesberg

Times Union 2-21-07 "Sanford runner-up has trainer dreaming Derby" (http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=565036&category=SPORTS&newsdate=2/21/2007)


The past-performance chart for a horse named Teuflesberg could be considered a thoroughbred train wreck.

In seven of his first 12 career starts, he had trouble. Stumbling at the start. Drifting out in the stretch. Being steadied here, bumped there.

Trust us, anything that could go wrong for a horse during a race has happened to Teuflesberg.

But he can run. He showed that last summer at Saratoga as a 2-year-old ...

Jamie Sanders, the colt's trainer, said she didn't have a dime on her colt. Never bets, she says. But she does have a horse that has to be given a second look at the rest of the Arkansas prep races.


Now Teuflesberg will go on to the March 17 Rebel at Oaklawn. If there is success there, then it'll be either the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn or the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Both of those races are on April 14.

"He really is maturing day by day," said Sanders, who has 46 horses in training. "He looks forward to going out to the race track every morning. He likes to go to the track and look at things. And he loves to run."

Glimmerglass
Feb. 21, 2007, 12:14 PM
Anyone else find this remark odd?


Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2006 Cup winner Street Sense says he "doesn't believe in luck over preparation."Source: NBC Sports 2-20-07 (http://www.nbcsports.com/sports/1081804/detail.html)

But if you send a horse into the Kentucky Derby with just two prep races isn't that putting a heck of a lot of faith into luck? It certainly isn't a great deal of preparation IMHO.

Street Sense staring the Kentucky Derby - assuming he wins his two prep races - will have a lifetime record of: 7 starts 4-1-2


"Something's going to really have to change (to run next week)," Nafzger said. "The race I use will take him forward, win or lose. I want him to come out of a race and jog a mile the next day feeling good. He's fit enough now but I don't want to knock the bottom out, that's why he's nominated to quite a few preps and we'll look to see how it goes."

Street Sense will start March 3 in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 21, 2007, 12:19 PM
Another entry for the Fountain of Youth hopefully was able to get "a seat" on something other then JetBlue's commerical flights ;)


Currin is ready and willing to ship [b]Stormello cross-country from Southern California for the Fountain of Youth, but may have to go another route if he can't secure a flight to Florida in time to make the race.

"The horse is ready to go - all I need is the transportation," Currin said shortly after Stormello worked at Hollywood Park on Friday. "The problem is it looks like I'm the only one coming that way from California, and at the moment there are no flights."

Currin was pleased with Stormello's work, a mile in 1:39, which was a little slower than he had originally planned.

Currin said that if he can't book a flight to Florida, his most likely option for Stormello would be to run him in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis at Santa Anita the same day.

"He doesn't need to work any more," said Currin. "What he did this morning is sufficient to go into [the Fountain of Youth]. All I need to do now is find a way to get him there."Source: DRF (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82637.html)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 23, 2007, 09:52 AM
Source: DRF 2-22-07 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82715.html)

Confirmed for the Fountain of Youth:

Buffalo Man, who is scheduled to work at Gulfstream on Sunday, with Edgar Prado up.
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Adore the Gold, the Swale Stakes winner
Stormello as cited before, still is having flight booking issues to get to FL for the FOY, so this is unsure entry

Other horses of note:

Ravel is still likely to make his next start in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on Apr 7. Although Todd Pletcher is considering the G2 $250,000 San Felipe Stakes on March 17.

Is Exhale off the Derby trail?


He reportedly did not work well on Sunday at Hollywood Park and he has not been seen on the track since. The jockey most likely to ride him in the Lewis is now searching for another mount. Trainer John Sadler has not responded to messages seeking clarification of Exhale's status. Exhale has been dropped from Derby Watch.

Is Belgravia off the Derby trail, too?


He has an infection, and it is not known when he will be able to race again, trainer Patrick Biancone said. It is almost March and any horse without graded earning, without a 3-yr old start, and not in 100% peak health just seem exceedingly doubtful for KY Derby.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 24, 2007, 05:15 PM
Is Exhale off the Derby trail?


He reportedly did not work well on Sunday at Hollywood Park and he has not been seen on the track since. The jockey most likely to ride him in the Lewis is now searching for another mount. Trainer John Sadler has not responded to messages seeking clarification of Exhale's status. Exhale has been dropped from Derby Watch.

Indeed Exhale is off the Derby chase;

From the Daily Racing Form 2-23-07

Bone spur has Exhale off Derby trail

Exhale, the flashy winner of a maiden race at Santa Anita in January, is off of the Triple Crown trail after coming up with a bone spur in his left knee, trainer John Sadler said on Thursday.

The injury will require surgery and will keep Exhale out of training for 90 days, Sadler said. The injury was detected after Exhale worked at Santa Anita last weekend and subsequently underwent X-rays.

Owned by CRK Stables, Exhale won a maiden race over 6 1/2 furlongs by five lengths on Jan. 15. The colt was purchased for $800,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Florida sale of 2-year-olds in training last year.

"He's not the sort that needs to be pushed for the Derby," Sadler said. 'I think he'll be a nice older horse."

Glimmerglass
Feb. 26, 2007, 09:24 AM
For those fans of Chelokee you might be in luck with reports of him being pointed to next weekend's - March 3 - Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes (7 1/2 furlongs)

Also being pointed to that race: Nick Zito trained prospect Forefathers, who was runner up in the Swale Stakes.

The upside for Chelokee and Forefathers is that Street Sense will not be entered in the Hutcheson ...

Glimmerglass
Feb. 26, 2007, 09:33 AM
Ah, yes, the excuses flow with the poor effort by Hard Spun in the Southwest. Come on! I have to say this isn't helpful to make remarks like this.

NY Post 2-26-07 "'Spun' Trainer Rips Oaklawn" (http://www.nypost.com/seven/02262007/sports/spun_trainer_rips_oaklawn_sports_ed_fountaine.htm)


His trainer, Larry Jones, blamed the trip for his defeat.

"Losing all the ground was part of it," he said, "but worse, he was out there on the deepest part of the racetrack the entire race. It was obvious there was a real inside speed bias.

"All I'm asking for is a level playing field, and I didn't get one. Unless I see some changes (with Oaklawn's track), I may go elsewhere (for Hard Spun's Derby prep races). Don't be surprised if we do."

From the same article this is why even those who might not love Barclay Tagg have to at least give him respect and must concede a very good chance to Nobiz Like Shobiz being "the one" this year:


Unlike many trainers who have handled their Derby hopefuls with kid gloves in recent years, Barclay Tagg isn't babying Nobiz Like Shobiz, recently working him six furlongs in a bullet 1:11.1, out seven furlongs in 1:24. The strapping son of Albert the Great won his first start of the year, the mile Holy Bull at Gulfstream Feb. 3, by 1 1/2 lengths, the smallest winning margin of his three victories. But that was just fine with Tagg, who seems to have more than just winning the Derby as his goal.

"Do they expect you to win by 15 lengths every time and still win the Triple Crown?" he said. "If he wins all his races by a length-and-a-half, I'll be very, very happy. I told Cornelio (Velasquez) in his last race to just win. No grandstanding. It does seem like he has a 15-length win in him, but he doesn't need to do it."

Glimmerglass
Feb. 26, 2007, 02:26 PM
Saturday’s $300,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park lost a leading contender when Ol’ Memorial Stable and Ed Glasscock’s 3-year-old Buffalo Man was diagnosed with an ankle injury Sunday morning that will preclude any hopes of staying on the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

“He took a bad step,” said trainer Cam Gambolati Monday morning. “Fortunately, it’s not life-threatening or anything like that and he should be able to come back. He could make it back sometime in the fall.”

A son of El Prado, Buffalo Man worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 at Gulfstream Sunday morning. There were high hopes for his connections after he won his last three starts, including the six-furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream on Jan. 7 and the OBS Championship going 1 1/16 miles at the Ocala Training Center on Feb. 12.Source: Bloodhorse/Gulfstream Press Release 2-26-07 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37751)

I hope he'll be good to go for the fall campaigns

Alibhai's Alibar
Feb. 27, 2007, 02:41 AM
Big bummer about Buffalo Man. Here's to a full recovery and I hope to see him again in the fall.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 27, 2007, 01:09 PM
He's in for the Fountain of Youth: BloodHorse 2-27-07 "Stormello Gets Flight; Headed to Florida" (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37762)


After furiously attempting to find a flight to Florida for Stormello, trainer and co-owner Bill Currin finally was able to book a FedEx flight that is scheduled to leave California at 4 a.m. Wednesday. The son of Stormy Atlantic will face Nobiz Like Shobiz and a host of other top 3-year-olds in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park.

The FedEx flight was Currin’s last hope, and he only found out it was a go Tuesday morning. “I feel like I just had a baby elephant,” a relieved Currin said.

flashback to last week ....


Another entry for the Fountain of Youth hopefully was able to get "a seat" on something other then JetBlue's commerical flights ;)
Bill] Currin is ready and willing to ship Stormello cross-country from Southern California for the Fountain of Youth, but may have to go another route if he can't secure a flight to Florida in time to make the race.

"The horse is ready to go - all I need is the transportation," Currin said shortly after Stormello worked at Hollywood Park on Friday. "The problem is it looks like I'm the only one coming that way from California, and at the moment there are no flights."

The Fountain of Youth is going to be a great test - with "top 10" candidates Nobiz Like Shobiz, Drums of Thunder, Scat Daddy, Adore the Gold, and Stormello!

Glimmerglass
Feb. 27, 2007, 01:54 PM
Who knew Teuflesberg [sic] (aka "Jo Jo") can do tricks ;)

BloodHorse 2-27-07 "Derby Dominators on the Move" (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37754)


Jamie Sanders, who has been a familiar sight on the backstretch for years showing off her trick pony, has already started teaching Southwest winner Teuflesberg to do tricks. Whenever she asks “Jo Jo,” as he’s called, if he’s being a good boy, the horse nods his head, after which he gets his usual treat.

Teuflesberg is named after a hill in Berlin, actually spelled Teufelsberg, which translates to Devil’s Mountain. It was built by the Allies after Word War II from the rubble of Berlin’s bombed out buildings. It is estimated that the amount of rubble is equivalent to 400,000 buildings. Buried underneath the hill is a Nazi military-technical college designed by Albert Speer that the Allies were unable to demolish, so they began dumping rubble on top of it.

D. Wayne Lukas is very upbeat - and rightfully so - with his Flying First Class who could pickup were injured Pegasus Wind left off:


“After finishing second in his debut at Turfway last September, I gave him some time off because of a shin. I really didn’t want to run him back at six furlongs. Tim Ritchey, John Servis, Tony Reinstedler, and Bob Holthus all loved their horses in the race, and he just destroyed them. He got a “3 ½” on the Ragozin Sheets, and you rarely even see horses going into the Derby off that kind of number. What made it even more amazing is that he came home as fast as he did against a 30 mile-an-hour headwind, where the flags were practically flying off the poles. And he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:22 3/5.”

Now, it’s on to the Rebel Stakes (gr. III). As for Flying First Class having to go into the Kentucky Derby off only four career starts, the always upbeat Lukas said he looks at that as more of “an advantage than a disadvantage.”

I will have to look up Giacomo's half brother Tiago after his wild effort and tangle with Spankey Come Home was highlighted as one to see!

Glimmerglass
Feb. 27, 2007, 05:29 PM
The BloodHorse had a chance to talk with Tagg (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37764) a little bit on the brilliant Nobiz Like Shobiz, Tue Feb 27, 2007:


Barclay Tagg ... described his talented colt as "a lovely horse to train."

The son of Albert the Great, who has hit the board in all four of his starts, concluded his juvenile campaign with a score in the Nov. 25 Remsen (gr. II), after which he won the Feb. 3 Holy Bull (gr. III) at Gulfstream in his seasonal debut.

"(Since the Holy Bull), he's been eating well, looking well, and we're pleased with him," said. Tagg. "He has a lot of poise, and he never gave me any indication that the race was hard on him."

When asked if he saw any similarities between Nobiz Like Shobiz and his 2003 Derby victor Funny Cide, Tagg said they are both "big, strong, fast horses, but very dissimilar other than that."

Nobiz Like Shobiz is easy to train, Tagg explained, while Funny Cide is a challenge. "(Nobiz) is a big puppy dog compared to Funny Cide--he oozes class. If you could sit down and design a horse for the Derby mentally and physically, he's the perfect type."

In spite of his talent, Tagg admitted that Nobiz Like Shobiz was still "a young, green horse" and he would have to wait and see how things pan out with the colt's schedule and training regiment before expressing high hopes for his shot at conquering the Triple Crown races.

Tagg, who also trained Nighstorm (by Storm Cat), the winning dam of Nobiz Like Shobiz, said his goal was to send the colt through three preps before the Run for the Roses.

Feedback from competitors:


Trainer Michael Gorham, who is also gearing up for the Fountain of Youth with his 3-year-old colt Adore the Gold, said he viewed Nobiz as the "one to beat."

"I see (Nobiz) as the leader (of the Derby trail) at this point," said Gorham. "He's done everything pretty professionally, and I think he's on top of the poll right now."


Like Gorham, [Doug] O'Neill also showed great respect for Nobiz Like Shobiz, who he is hoping to avoid [with his horse, Liquidity] along the Derby trail.

"He kicked our butts (in the grade I Champagne where Nobiz finished second and Liquidity ran ninth)," he said. "I was standing right next to Barclay. They were so proud of that horse and they should be--he's a beast when you stand next to him. Not only does he have the look, but he has extremely fast numbers. If you can avoid that horse before the big dance, it would be good." :D

Glimmerglass
Feb. 28, 2007, 06:53 PM
Finally Great Hunter will make his 2007 start this weekend ...


Great Hunter will be front and center on Saturday, when he makes his first start of the year in the Grade 2, $200,000 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. When entries for the 1 1/16-mile race were taken here on Wednesday, Great Hunter drew post 8 in a field of nine. Source: DRF 2-28-07 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82893.html)

Another remark of the scared :D


"Wherever Nobiz Like Shobiz goes, we won't go," Dennis O'Neill said.

Bits and pieces of activity ...


* Ravel, the Sham Stakes winner, will head straight to the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, Pletcher said. "Everybody's on board with the plan," he said.

* Prado has picked up the mount on Flying First Class for the March 17 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, according to D. Wayne Lukas, the colt's trainer.

Oh and I said that off the Derby Trail was Belgravia - well it appears the 'French Connection' thinks he's still on albeit ill ...


Belgravia, who was forced to miss the Lewis because of a recent illness, has left Southern California. He was evaluated at a Lexington, Ky., clinic, and now is training at Keeneland, according to his trainer, Patrick Biancone, who said he hopes Belgravia can make the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park on March 24. Biancone said if need be, he would attempt to make the Derby off just one prep, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 14.

That, my friends, is just nuts!

holmes
Mar. 1, 2007, 01:52 PM
Looks like Chelokee has a slightly longer one this weekend going against his stable mate Crusader Rabbit!!

Glimmerglass
Mar. 1, 2007, 02:16 PM
Allowance 2:56 pm EST Gulfstream Park, March 3, Race 5; 1 1/8 mi


Post Horse Name Weight Jockey Name
1 For You Reppo (KY) | 122 Kent J. Desormeaux
2 Highest Degree (KY) | 118 Manoel R. Cruz
3 Chelokee (KY) | 118 Mark Guidry
4 Crusader Rabbit (FL) | 120 Rene R. Douglas
5 High Act (ON) | 118 Javier Castellano
6 Sacrifice Bunt (KY) | 120 Joe Bravo
7 Silver Express (KY) | 118 Cornelio H. Velasquez
8 Roman's Run (KY) | 118 Eddie Castro
9 Zoobstick (FL) | 118 Eduardo O. Nunez
10 Sightseeing (KY) | 118 Edgar S. Prado


Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes 3:54 pm EST Gulfstream Park, March 3, Race 7; 7 and 1/2 furlongs


Post Horse Name Weight Jockey Name
1 Forefathers (KY) | 116 Manoel R. Cruz
2 Bold Start (KY) | 116 Kent J. Desormeaux
3 Storm in May (FL) | 120 Javier Castellano
4 Finallymadeit (FL) | 116 Eduardo O. Nunez
5 Reata's Rocket (ON) | 116 Rajiv Maragh
6 Spin Master (KY) | 116 Mark Guidry
7 Air Lord (FL) | 116 Christopher P. DeCarlo
8 King of the Roxy (OH) | 120 Edgar S. Prado
9 Out of Gwedda (KY) | 118 John R. Velazquez


Grade 2 Fountain of Youth 5:24 pm EST Gulfstream Park, March 3, Race 10; 1 1/8 miles


Post Horse Name Weight Jockey Name
1 Johannesburg Star (KY) | 116 Rajiv Maragh
2 Hal's My Hope (FL) | 116 Jose Alberto Rivera, II
3 Drums of Thunder (FL) | 120 Manoel R. Cruz
4 Stormello (KY) | 122 Kent J. Desormeaux
5 Nobiz Like Shobiz (KY) | 122 Cornelio H. Velasquez
6 Meritocracy (KY) | 116 Rafael Bejarano
7 Divine Master (FL) | 116 Rene R. Douglas
8 Scat Daddy (KY) | 122 John R. Velazquez
9 Adore the Gold (KY) | 120 Edgar S. Prado

InVA
Mar. 1, 2007, 02:31 PM
Looks like Nobiz got a decent post position eh? What do you experts think of it?
Will it make a difference ? I've seen all of his races on Calracing and he breaks very well.. fast...to the front..

Glimmerglass
Mar. 1, 2007, 04:18 PM
I'd be utterly shocked if Nobiz lost the Fountain of Youth.

As Tagg said - and I'm sure the instruction are to Cornelio - there won't be any showing off or grandstanding. A win by 1 - 2 lengths is all that is required. Keep some fuel in the tank for the long road ahead.

A nice article from this mornings Louisville Courier-Journal 3-1-07 "Nobiz seems ripe to enter Derby biz" (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070301/SPORTS08/703010569/1002/SPORTS)

excerpts:


Still, [Tagg] said, Nobiz has all the tools.

"If you could sit down and design a horse for the Derby, mentally and physically, he'd have every attribute this horse has," Tagg said. "I'm not saying that'll make him win the Derby or anything else."

Elizabeth Valando said she at first had little interest in racing.

"I used to take my books and fashion magazines to the track," she said in a phone interview. "(Tommy) loved to bet, and I'm not a bettor. So I would sit there, and I'd look at my magazines and he'd come over with the program and, 'OK, honey, pick a horse, and I'll bet it for you.' Of course I knew nothing about it."

But the fashion magazine was quickly ditched for a Daily Racing Form when Fly So Free burst on the scene.

"When you have a horse like that, how could you not throw out your fashion magazines?" Elizabeth Valando said with a laugh.

But Elizabeth considers Nobiz Like Shobiz a tribute to her husband.

"Oh, he'd be thrilled," she said. "He is thrilled; he's looking down on us now. I've always felt anything I could accomplish in racing would be in his honor, because he started it all."

Morning Line for the Fountain of Youth (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070301/SPORTS08/70301039/1002/SPORTS)

Nobiz Like Shobiz 6-5
Scat Daddy 3-1
Stormello 4-1
Drums of Thunder 8-1
Adore the Gold 8-1
Johannesburg Star 15-1
Meritocracy 20-1
Hal’s My Hope 30-1
Divine Master 30-1

InVA
Mar. 1, 2007, 04:29 PM
What is next for Hard Spun?

Glimmerglass
Mar. 1, 2007, 04:51 PM
What is next for Hard Spun?

Provided his connections don't whine too much about the conditions of the track at Oaklawn he is supposed to race next on March 17th in the Rebel Stakes. He will be running up against Teuflesberg again :D

VirginiaBred
Mar. 1, 2007, 06:37 PM
From the Barbaro Thread:
(Thanks, Alex)

NoBiz worked today, a half in 47 and change. His final piece of work in preparation for Saturday's Fountain of Youth. Barclay is pretty high on his horse: Tagg touting Nobiz Like Shobiz entering Fountain of Youth (http://thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/March/01/Tagg-touting-Nobiz-Like-Shobiz-entering-Fountain-of-Youth.aspx), excerpt:

"Michael Matz had reason to be confident with Barbaro last year," Tagg said. "He had one of the most fabulous horses anyone had seen in a long time and he has him in great position for the Triple Crown. I think my horse could be on that same level."

This is high praise from Barclay who is typically conservative. Barclay was also one for high praise for Barbaro early in his career, after watching him win the Laurel Futurity.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 1, 2007, 08:29 PM
As suggested in my prior posting - Tagg just wants just smooth and steady on Saturday:DRF 3-1-07 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/82919.html)


"I don't have to tell Cornelio the strategy, which is to win if he can but not beat the horse up to do it," said Tagg. "If I had my wish list at the moment it would be to win this race easily, the Wood easily, and the Kentucky Derby easily."

Remember the last minute FedEx flight Stormello was just barely able to schedule on and fly from CA to FL? I guess it wasn't exactly the smoothest trip possible, poor guy :(


Stormello has not started since closing out his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. Trainer Bill Currin had to go to great lengths to make travel arrangements from the West Coast for Stormello, who finally arrived late Wednesday evening following an arduous 14-hour journey.

"He had a trip from hell," said Currin, shortly after his own arrival in south Florida on Thursday. "If he doesn't run well, I've already got my excuse. But I think he'll be all right."

Currin could have taken the easy way out and stayed home to run Stormello on Saturday in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, but he was eager to take on Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Fountain of Youth.

"I have a little of this East Coast-West Coast bias and the only way to get rid of it is put my star on the road and bring him here and beat the best," said Currin.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 2, 2007, 08:25 AM
What is next for Hard Spun?

The Philly paper's cover him the most now - per today's Inquirer 3-2-07 (http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16816283.htm):


So if Hard Spun gets an outside post in the Rebel when the post positions are drawn on March 14, a Wednesday, "we'll be at Turfway on Thursday," Jones said.

At that point, Jones said, Hard Spun would be entered in the Lane's End on March 24 at Turfway Park in Florence, Ky. The extra week will be enough time to train on the track's artificial Polytrack surface, he said, pointing out that the Pennsylvania-bred 3-year-old, owned by Rick Porter of Wilmington, trained on Fair Hill's artificial surface for two weeks.

Jones said he was still hoping to run in the Rebel, but if it doesn't happen, Hard Spun will not return to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby on April 14. If it came to that, the Blue Grass on April 14 at Keeneland or even the Wood Memorial on April 7 at Aqueduct would become possible targets for a final Derby prep.

If he goes for the Wood Memorial on April 7 as his last prep race he will be smacking up against Nobiz Like Shobiz's plans. It's somewhat hard to avoid that shark when swimming in as small of a "tank" the the handful of top prep races ;)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 2, 2007, 08:34 AM
What's this? Nay saying about Nobiz Like Shobiz? :)

Well I think Saturday should confirm or deny that everyone indeed is seeing the best KY Derby hopeful with him. I think we are but ...

Gary West, Dallas FW Telegram 3-2-07 "Nobiz Like Shobiz faces slew of doubts" (http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/horse_racing/16818235.htm)


Is Nobiz Like Shobiz the next Seattle Slew? Maybe, but I'd like to see a little less "sho" and a little more "biz" from him, starting with Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

A black dragon of a racehorse who's so big he could be seen from outer space, Nobiz Like Shobiz looks as if he stepped out of a myth and could either leap over the grandstand or scorch it, depending on his whim. He has, in other words, superstar charisma. And, because horse racing's search for its next superstar remains both perpetual and relentless, he has become the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

Like everyone else, I'd love to see him soar over the grandstand Saturday, although my personal preference probably would come down on the side of scorch. But I'd settle for just a professional effort to allay my fears and suspicions.

In the Remsen Stakes last year at Aqueduct Race Track and again in the recent Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Nobiz Like Shobiz lugged in through the stretch. In both, he was late to change strides (to his right lead), and he sometimes seemed to be looking around. Still, he won, on the sheer force of his talent.

His trainer, Barclay Tagg, dismisses such behavior by saying Nobiz Like Shobiz is still a "big puppy dog," who's "a little green." And, says Tagg, "If you could sit down and design a horse to win the Derby, with all the attributes, he has all of it."

Tagg won the Kentucky Derby with Funny Cide, and he's a superb horseman whose opinion has considerable value. Still, I'm eager to see some "biz."

Basically, Nobiz Like Shobiz hasn't improved measurably since he won his debut in September at Belmont Park. Any horse's journey to the Kentucky Derby is all about development and progress, and he hasn't taken a significant step forward.

Of greater concern, Nobiz Like Shobiz moves more powerfully than gracefully; so he has been racing on tracks that play to his strength, to his overwhelming forcefulness. Belmont has a 1 1/2 -mile oval; Aqueduct and Gulfstream are 1 1/8 miles. Churchill Downs, however, has a one-mile oval that tends to emphasize athleticism, especially when 20 horses step onto the track for the Kentucky Derby.

If, as Tagg has indicated, Nobiz Like Shobiz goes from Saturday's Fountain of Youth to Aqueduct's Wood Memorial on April 7, he'll then go to the Kentucky Derby without ever having raced on a one-mile track. And who's the last Derby winner who went to Kentucky without having raced around a tight oval with a circumference of a mile or less?

Seattle Slew, who swept the 1977 Triple Crown.

Could Nobiz Like Shobiz be the next Seattle Slew? I doubt it, but I'd sure love to see him leap over the grandstand or, even better, scorch the Fountain of Youth until it boils.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 2, 2007, 04:26 PM
For those without TVG or accessing on-line via youbet.net to watch the big Derby prep, ESPN News will also carry it live:


Fountain of Youth Stakes;
Saturday, March 3, 5:20 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS

With a little over 60-days to go, ESPN has their Kentucky Derby contenders gallery up (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/index#)

caffeinated
Mar. 2, 2007, 04:58 PM
sweet! thanks for the heads-up :)

It's driving me nuts that I get HRTV and not TVG. Comcast needs a beatdown....

Glimmerglass
Mar. 2, 2007, 05:29 PM
While rarely discussed - largely because he hasn't started in 2007 yet - Birdbirdistheword will make his debut next week in the Grade 2 Louisana Derby on March 10th.

His workouts have been very strong and he looks rather fit. With the bank he's amassed it is a guarantee that even if he finishes dead last in the next two starts he will be assigned a starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

He has his own blog no less with videos, etc ... take a peek:

http://birdbirdblog.blogspot.com/

(He doesn't look terribly thrilled to be "interviewed" at 10 am at the front of his stall :)

DLee
Mar. 2, 2007, 09:28 PM
Is Curlin running anywhere soon? I have not been able to forget that video of him winning....

Glimmerglass
Mar. 2, 2007, 09:53 PM
Is Curlin running anywhere soon?

Curlin has yet to start since being privately purchased and turned over to Steve Asmussen after that powerhouse Gulfstream maiden win. No word on where he is pointed to next. Logically you'd think the LA Derby next week (March 10) but that is doubtful. Of course as we all know, without graded stakes earnings he won't get to the Derby.

Another "wow" first time effort akin to Curlin is [b]Corrupt when he won the Mardi Gras Stakes at Fair Grounds late last month with a turn of foot - when thought to be a non-contender - that was simply impressive. A turf runner, he is not likely pointed to the Kentucky Derby as of now.


Corrupt, an Illinois-bred 3-year-old bred and owned by Team Block Stable, debuted last Oct. 25 with a 7 3/4-length turf maiden win, and captured the Grand Canyon Stakes at Churchill a month later by a length.

Corrupt is sticking to turf. His next start, Trosclair said, will come in the $100,000 Grindstone on March 24 at Fair Grounds. Source: DRF

Glimmerglass
Mar. 2, 2007, 10:37 PM
New York Times 3-3-07 "NoBiz Like Shobiz, Trained by Tagg, Is Creating a Stir as a Favorite for the Derby" (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/03/sports/othersports/03racing.html?_r=1&ref=sports&oref=slogin)

excerpt:


After Funny Cide’s victory in the Derby and the Preakness, Tagg seemed uncomfortable being in the spotlight; at times, he was cantankerous. He was one race away from winning the Triple Crown, yet never seemed to be enjoying the moment.

“We work hard all day, every day and, I’m not crying the blues about it, but you get tired,” Tagg said. “I get up at four o’clock in the morning all year round, year after year after year, and then when you have a lot of pressure on you about something, it gets a little tougher.

“You learn to live with it, and I didn’t really get too upset until we were trying to get to the Belmont Stakes and it got to the point where everybody was pushing at me. Funny Cide just didn’t need that. He was a fractious horse and he didn’t need to have his adrenaline popping through his head every time a bunch of people came running down the aisle. So I tried to keep all that to a minimum and still be a gentleman about it the best I could. I had a lot of people say I did a great job and a lot of people say I did a bad job. I’m not going to worry about it too much, but the main thing you have to do is protect your horse.”

Slewdledo
Mar. 3, 2007, 04:00 PM
King of the Roxy was impressive in winning the Hutcheson at Gulfstream. Bold Start 2nd, Out of Gwedda 3rd. (Pletcher trainees ran 1st and 3rd).

Glimmerglass
Mar. 3, 2007, 05:12 PM
Allowance 2:56 pm EST Gulfstream Park, March 3, Race 5; 1 1/8 mi

3 Chelokee (KY) | 118 Mark Guidry

A great effort in the final stretch to win this allowance race. That's what any trainer wants to see with desire, especially after running into trouble early. Now to take on stakes-level company ...

Drvmb1ggl3
Mar. 3, 2007, 05:31 PM
Dayum, that was a horse race. Four horses in the photo.
Scat Daddy just gets up, the Cali raider Stormello just gets nipped.
That Nobiz still running very green... could have won this race, it took the challenge of Adore Gold to make him run. If they get inside this horse's head, he's the one beat in the Derby.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 3, 2007, 05:55 PM
Dayum, that was a horse race. Four horses in the photo. Scat Daddy just gets up, the Cali raider Stormello just gets nipped.
That Nobiz still running very green... could have won this race, it took the challenge of Adore Gold to make him run. If they get inside this horse's head, he's the one beat in the Derby.

While it wasn't a win, I'm sure that Tagg will actually be pleased with the result simply because it was good for him. He wasn't pushed hard to take the win so he'll still be fresh for his next race. Nobiz gained experience and importantly did show some grit when he was getting swallowed up and pushed back. In a longer distance (like 1 1/4 mi) he could've come back for a win.

For the problems Stormello had with shipping in to FL it was a great effort for the photo finished and ultimately 2nd place.

Jinx
Mar. 3, 2007, 07:49 PM
i must say ive been likeing scat daddy and this race made me like him more and more....

nobiz...i dunno im still on the fence with him. i think hes great but i dont know if he will win the derby...dont know yet...

holmes
Mar. 3, 2007, 11:19 PM
I was very pleased to see Chelokee's win today - Guidry seems to be very good at taking them right back, and having strong finishes. I know what Chelokees next step is (insider info and no I am not telling) and it is very exciting.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 4, 2007, 08:45 PM
Nobiz Like Shobiz, next start .. uncertain? The AP says its unclear:


After the third-place finish, Tagg said he wasn’t sure where the colt would race next.

“I think he’s a good horse,” he said. “I don’t know why he ran like that. The jock said he was lugging in at the top of the stretch, and you lose a little ground when you straighten him out. The whole thing surprised me. I thought he’d lay third, then go to the front and win. I thought we’d go to the Wood Memorial (April 7), but now I don’t know.”NBC Sports/AP 3-4-07 "Scat Daddy by a nose in Fountain of Youth" (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17441796/)

However other sources say he's still on for the Wood Memorial:

Brisnet 3-4-07 "Nobiz Like Shobiz still headed for Wood" (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=7150)


"He looks in good shape and ate up his dinner last night and seemed happy enough," Tagg said Sunday morning.

Nobiz Like Shobiz had a rough start in the Fountain of Youth, bumping with a rival when the gates opened and then forced to steady entering the first turn. Tagg attributed most of the trouble to the colt.

"He made things tough on himself," the conditioner said. "He blew the first turn and then tried to duck in and slipped back on the other turn. He lost about a length each time and then he gets beat only half a length. I'm disappointed we lost, but I don't feel bad about the horse. We just have to try and get him to come out of his shenanigans soon."

Glimmerglass
Mar. 5, 2007, 10:34 AM
Lose by 1/2 a length and you're a chump it seems ...

Courier-Journal 3-4-07 Top 10 Poll (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070304/SPORTS08/303040007/1037)


1. Street Sense
2. Any Given Saturday
3. Nobiz Like Shobiz
4. Great Hunter
5. Circular Quay
5. Scat Daddy
7. Stormello
8. Ravel
9. Notional
10. Liquidity

Others (in order of votes received):
Adore the Gold, Hard Spun, CP West, Birdbirdistheword, Summer Doldrums, Sam P., I'mawildandcrazyguy, Zanjero, Drums of Thunder, King of the Roxy, Chelokee, Teuflesberg, Belgravia, Cobalt Blue, Soaring By, Day Pass, Cowtown Cat, Forefathers, Saint Paul, E.Z. Warrior, Mister White Socks, Deadly Dealer, Bold Start, Bwana Bull, Major Pleasure, Horse Greeley, Curlin, Ketchikan, Flying First Class, Silver Express, Level Red, Buffalo Man, Lawrence the Roman.

Worth pointing out is the question on how Buffalo Man is still on the list ahead of Lawrence the Roman when he is injured and not returning until the fall ... also injured Belgravia ahead of white-hot Flying First Class? What?

Glimmerglass
Mar. 5, 2007, 10:40 AM
Still plenty of support out there for my favorite since November ...

Baltimore Sun Monday 3-5-07 "Still none better than 'Nobiz'" (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horseracing/bal-sp.derby05mar05,0,7269040.story?coll=bal-sports-horse)

This next weekend will feature the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows.

Look for either Birdbirdistheword to reappear on everyone's radar in the Louisiana Derby or just be an also ran to the whole Derby chase. I suspect already that Circular Quay might get a shock from the "horse for course" Birdbird who has been breezing over that New Orleans track!

Beezer
Mar. 5, 2007, 08:52 PM
Mr. Beezer covered Santa Anita on Saturday; he was very, very impressed with Great Hunter. He does not bet -- that would be Mr. Beezer, although I think GH is too young to bet anway :winkgrin: -- but has a very, very solid record at picking Derby winners.

So we shall see.

But according to Mr. B, Great Hunter was quite the athletic specimen, composed and ready to roll. This could be the first time in a long time that he and I are high on the same horse -- he even went so far as to say, "We should own that horse" :p :p -- so, perhaps Great Hunter will bag the big prize.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 6, 2007, 10:28 AM
Great Hunter did look good over the weekend and rightfully did move up in the polls.

The next prep race field is set:

Louisiana Derby (grade 2), $600,000
Fair Grounds, LA
March 10
1 1/16 miles, approx. post 5:43 p.m. ET


PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey, ML Odds

1. Circular Quay, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 122, 9-5
2. Ketchikan, Al Stall Jr., Larry Melancon, 122, 8-1
3. Slew’s Tizzy, Gregory Fox, Julien Leparoux, 122, 15-1
4. Birdbirdistheword, Kenneth McPeek, Robby Albarado, 122, 6-1
5. Liquidity, Doug O’Neill, Corey Nakatani, 122, 7-2
6. Zanjero, Steve Asmussen, Garrett Gomez, 122, 4-1
7. Soaring By, Todd Pletcher, Edgar Prado, 122, 8-1
8. Imawildandcrazyguy, William Kaplan, Fernando Jara, 122, 10-1

Birdbirdistheword is getting less then zero respect it would appear from the media despite having 2 prior stakes victories.

Worth taking a look at - courtesy of youtube.com - is his turf victory in the Harrah's Juvenile Stakes at Louisiana Downs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvXU9SnOrAA) held 09/23/06 for $100K

Birdbirdistheword (http://www.ntra.com/stats_bios.aspx?id=22110) stats page for the NTRA 5 starts 3-0-0

Glimmerglass
Mar. 6, 2007, 10:47 AM
Hard Spun will be migrating from Arkansas and thus skipping the Rebel Stakes - almost certainly giving that race to Teufelsberg who is seemingly this years' Lawyer Ron

Source: BloodHorse 3-5-07 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37861)
After turning in an unsatisfactory work at Oaklawn, Hard Spun will skip the Rebel Stakes (gr. III) and point for the March 24 Lane's End Stakes. Trainer Larry Jones, after watching Hard Spun blow hard following an easy half-mile breeze, has come to the conclusion the colt labors over the Oaklawn surface and has decided, along with owner Rick Porter, to go elsewhere. They feel he should like the Polytrack surface and will ship the colt to Turfway later this week.

Also on Chelokee:


A jubilant Matz said he’ll likely try stakes company next for the Centennial Farms colt, but wasn’t sure which one. He only said the Florida Derby, which he won last year with Barbaro, is too soon, so he’ll likely wait another week or two before finding out jut what he has.

If the FL Derby (Mar 31st) is too soon, take a look at the prep race schedule (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/derby_preps.asp) to see what is left. It doesn't take a lot to know that if the goal is the Kentucky Derby he needs graded stakes money, of those races after the FL Derby, the following he'd have to race in and earn sufficient funds to make the field:


Race, Stakes Grade, Date, Location, total value, distance
Central Bank Transylvania S. (gr. IIIT) 4-6 Kee $150g 8T
Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) 4-7 SA $750g 9
Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) 4-7 Aqu $750g 9
Illinois Derby (gr. II) 4-7 Haw $500g 9
Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III) 4-7 Aqu $150g 7
Arkansas Derby (gr. II) 4-14 OP $1,000g 9
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) 4-14 Kee $750g 9
Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. II) 4-21 Kee $325g 8.5
Withers Stakes (gr. III) 4-28 Aqu $150g 8

In recent years the cut off has been north of $110,000 of graded stakes earnings. Therefor winning the Central Bank Transylvania Stakes on turf, for example, might add to the winner only $80k in graded funds.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 6, 2007, 03:24 PM
Kentucky Derby Future Pool #2 opens March 8th - with Nobiz Like Shobiz now pegged at 15-1 (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/future-wager). By comparison those who went for him in the Pool #1 last month locked in only 8-1.

If he stays at 15-1 I'll be happy to plop down $10+ on him :)

Before the "opening bell"; Odds, of course, will change before the close of the second pool Sunday March 11 @ 6 pm Eastern.


Future Wager Pool 2 with morning line odds:
*New wagering interest in Pool 2 (10); Morning line odds by Mike Battaglia

Wagering Interest ML Odds
1 Adore the Gold 30-1
2 Any Given Saturday 12-1
3 Birdbirdistheword* 30-1
4 Circular Quay 12-1
5 Cobalt Blue* 50-1
6 Curlin* 50-1
7 Flying First Class* 30-1
8 Great Hunter 8-1
9 Hard Spun 20-1
10 Imawildandcrazyguy* 50-1
11 King of the Roxy* 30-1
12 Liquidity 30-1
13 Nobiz Like Shobiz 15-1
14 Notional 15-1
15 Officer Rocket* 50-1
16 Ravel 8-1
17 Sam P.* 20-1
18 Scat Daddy 12-1
19 Stormello 12-1
20 Street Sense 8-1
21 Summer Doldrums* 15-1
22 Teuflesberg* 30-1
23 Zanjero 50-1
24 All Other 3YO’s 4-1

VirginiaBred
Mar. 7, 2007, 07:46 AM
From the Barbaro thread (thanks Alex)~

Hard Spun is now pointing to the Lane's End at Turfway Park rather than the Rebel at Oaklawn where he has been stabled for the past month or so: Hard Spun to run in Lane's End, not Rebel. (http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/16849391.htm) Larry Jones, Hard Spun's trainer, also gallops Hard Spun, here is an excerpt:

"We're not saying he couldn't win the Rebel," Jones said. "He's a very classy horse. He's a very talented horse. But he's telling me every day when I gallop him... he's just not comfortable when he's traveling over this surface. All the others he does effortlessly."

Glimmerglass
Mar. 8, 2007, 08:49 AM
We'll finally get to see the Philadelphia Inquirer's staff Top 10 pick: Cowtown Cat - he's entered into Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Gotham Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct.

While Dreaming of Anna's Derby hopes have long since evaporated and she isn't even the leading favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, there is still one filly who might still try for the Kentucky Derby: Rags to Riches. Next start for her is Sunday in the Grade 1, $300,000 Santa Anita Oaks at 1 1/16 miles. According to ESPN: "Her connections have not closed the door on going to the Derby."

"Whine Maker" Jess Jackson and his legal crew, the owners of Curlin since early Feb when he put in a massive blitz will see their colt race next weekend. Curlin is entered into the G3 $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17.

I cited the blog for Birdbirdistheword before

http://birdbirdblog.blogspot.com/

Now there is a blog for BloodHorse magazine ostensibly to cover this year's Triple Crown chase by Sean Clancy. Although I have to say its a "bit" [and that is being generous] heavy on the Michael Matz and Barbaro side already.

http://blogs.bloodhorse.com/clancy/

Does anyone know of any other blogs devoted to a specific horse on the Derby trail?

The Houston Chronicle today (like the Courier-Journal yesterday) has a brief article (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/race/4611865.html) on the much overlooked Birdbirdistheword for Thu Mar 8.

caffeinated
Mar. 8, 2007, 09:06 AM
You mean this thread isn't one? LOL

(seriously, you have all the news, quick as can be, it's like a blog with instream commentary from all us clueless folk. LOL)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 8, 2007, 04:36 PM
You mean this thread isn't one ?

I suppose in some sense it could be viewed as such, but it certainly isn't the intent. For example, equidaily.com (Seth) does a fine job of combing all media - as well as receiving contributions from others - for his daily drudgereport-esq front page. Links to the source are great but links change, the original content can have a limited viewing period, and often require multiple access/pws to read the content.

Perhaps its just me, but I'd rather have a "living document" as per say that someone can easily look back at in the first week of January and know X horse was talked up as the next coming of Spectacular Bid. If you look at the same thread last year its funny to see in January all the rage names of horses that simply were not there at the Derby like Stevie Wonderboy; and the thread the year before that I was a big fan of Sweet Catomine who I really thought would've been a factor until that whole debacle of her smuggled off site, getting treatement, etc pre SA Derby! I digress ...

I was exceptionally impressed with Nobiz in the Remsen (in Nov) hence the start of this year's chase to Louisville, Baltimore and Elmont really starting there. I've never put much weight in the BC JV race and while the Saratoga Special and other graded mid-summer 2-yr races can be thrilling it generally is a showcase for horses that peak far too early.

We'll see what happens on May 5 ...

As for those looking for races on TV and without HRTV or TGV next week starts the coverage:


[b]Mar 17 ESPN 7-8 p.m. Eastern; they'll be airing
San Felipe Stakes (Live) Santa Anita
Rebel Stakes (Live) Oaklawn Park
Tampa Bay Derby (tape) Tampa Bay Downs
Gotham Stakes (tape)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 8, 2007, 05:10 PM
Suddenly a wealth of coverage on Birdbird ...

Associated Press 3/8/07 "Have you heard? Birdbirdistheword is on the Derby trail" (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17521847/)


[Trainer Kenny McPeek] said. "He doesn't need to win, just run a good, quality race. If he wins, they better get nervous.''

McPeek has a knack for success with horses he picks out for his owners, and Birdbirdistheword is just the latest. He paid $32,000 for the colt at the 2005 Ocala August sale for Ray Cottrell, a Kentucky car dealer and longtime client.

"There's no pressure on me to figure out where he fits or force anything,'' said McPeek, who picked out 1995 Kentucky Derby runner-up Tejano Run. "We haven't even cranked him up yet. I can simply develop him.''

"If this horse was a car, he'd be a Maserati.''

Glimmerglass
Mar. 8, 2007, 05:38 PM
Adding this workout info on Birdbird: Mar. 6 - Palm Meadows - 4f - 0:48 breezing, best of 20 at the distance; galloped out 5f in 1:00

Glimmerglass
Mar. 9, 2007, 05:19 PM
As of 5 pm on Friday the Future Odds for the 2nd pool still point to Nobiz as being the top dog compared to "all others" being the favorite last time; Teuflesberg is getting little respect at 57-1

Just an excerpt of three ...

Horse ::: Morning Line ::: Current Odds
Nobiz Like Shobiz , 15-1 , 5-0
All Other 3-yr olds , 4-1 , 10-1
Teuflesberg , 30-1 , 57-1

Street Sense looking very good in his workout before his much anticipated debut at 3 next week in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.


After covering his opening three furlongs in 38.06 seconds under regular rider Calvin Borel, Street Sense flew home his final quarter-mile in clockings that ranged from 22.97 to 23.03 on the several stopwatches keyed in on the reigning Eclipse winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ. He then proceeded to gallop out another eighth of a mile in 11.38 before pulling up seven furlongs in 1:26.16. He was officially credited with working five furlongs in 1:01.

"That couldn't have been any better," a smiling Carl Nafzger said as Street Sense headed back to the barn. "He's right on schedule. I couldn't ask him to do any more than he's done up to this point."

Source: DRF 3-9-07 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/83084.html)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 10, 2007, 05:59 PM
Promising and upper ranked Summer Doldrums who brought a 2 race win streak into today' $200,000 Gotham Stakes (Grade 3) at Aqueduct didn't seem to fire much and never lived up to the hype of his prior wild Beyer Speed Figure of 106.

Cowtown Cat, whom I mocked the Philly paper's for backing, pulled out the slow win today in a less then sizzling race.

Final order for the Gotham Stakes:
Win - Cowtown Cat (toting 116 lbs)
Place - Wafi City (116 lbs)
Show - Summer Doldrums (120 lbs)

1 1/16 Miles in a final time of 1:44.75

(Accordingly Summer Doldrums, initially begged at 15-1 in the 2nd Future Pool for the Ky Derby is now at 27-1 and dropping)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 10, 2007, 06:06 PM
Circular Quay takes the Louisiana Derby (G2)

Win: Circular Quay
Place: Ketchikan
Show: Zanjero

Finish Time: 1:43.01

Rest of the field:
4th Imawildandcrazyguy
5th Birdbirdistheword
6th Liquidity
7th Slew's Tizzy
8th Soaring By

lizathenag
Mar. 11, 2007, 12:35 AM
At about 3 we decided to go to the track. Saw two races and my partner picked the exacta in the ECR Derby and we picked the winner in the 9th race (12 maidens) which made for a pleasant day. I almost picked the third place horse in a trifecta box as he was by Bertrando, my fave.

And I got my future book bets in on time this time.


Race Name: El Camino Real Derby - Grade: 3
Off at: 4:32 Race Type: Stakes
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Value of Race: $200,000
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:43.22
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
6 Bwana Bull Russell A. Baze 4.00 2.40 2.20
7 Freesgood Kent J. Desormeaux 4.00 3.80
1 Zoning In Joel Rosario 6.60
Also ran: 3 - Court the King , 5 - Candy's Bro , 2 - Brave Sun , 4 - Coalinga Kid

Glimmerglass
Mar. 11, 2007, 10:33 AM
At about 3 we decided to go to the track. Saw two races and my partner picked the exacta in the ECR Derby and we picked the winner in the 9th race (12 maidens) which made for a pleasant day.

Pretty sweet - I watched the race on youbet.net and it was a solid effort by Bwana Bull. Baze sat back with those steady hands and then sent him perfectly. Nice to see a Derby contenter coming from a No Cal track.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 12, 2007, 11:13 AM
What looks to be one heck of a great line up for the Grade 3, $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on Saturday (3/17):

It includes ...
- Curlin
- Flying First Class
- Teuflesberg
- Officer Rocket
- Wannabeinclued
- Xchanger
- Going Ballistic

It will be aired on ESPN for the first race of the 'Citgo Racing to the Kentucky Derby' series.

For those who didn't get to see Saturday's running of the LA Derby - and Circular Quay's victory:

From youtube.com the race video: Grade 2 Lousiana Derby Mar 10, 2007 $600,000 (http://youtube.com/watch?v=cuxjodeGr_k)

amber1
Mar. 12, 2007, 11:32 AM
...

lizathenag
Mar. 12, 2007, 11:50 AM
My partner chose him for the Derby furture book (along with Circular Quay and Scat Daddy). Officer Rocket is a Bertrando grandson and I always like them.

I chose Ravel and Any Given Saturday. We shall see.

holmes
Mar. 12, 2007, 01:09 PM
Crusader Rabbit has another race today - the one to determine if he goes on the trail! The way I look at it, he can win this race and he only has to get lucky twice - seems easy enough!

Glimmerglass
Mar. 12, 2007, 02:52 PM
From youtube.com the race video: Grade 2 Lousiana Derby Mar 10, 2007 $600,000 (http://youtube.com/watch?v=cuxjodeGr_k)

You won't see it on the video cited above, but the eagle eyes at equidaily.com did find a snapshot of Prado breaking through the gate on Soaring By in the false start and re-loaded.

AP Photo: Soaring By/Prado up, false start for the Louisiana Derby 3/10/07 (http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/photo?slug=laab50303102352.louisiana_derby_horse_r acing_laab503&prov=ap)

I have to say Edgar's remark has to elicit a bit of a "gee, do ya think" response: quote (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37945)


“I think it kind of shook him a little," said jockey Edgar Prado said of the gate incident. "After that, he wasn’t the same.”

Frog
Mar. 12, 2007, 07:44 PM
I'm so excited, I have tickets! Can't say who. Losers for certain, but it's the first time I've ever used the Future Wager and I must say it's kind of fun.

Although I used some birthday money... and then needed some stuff from Target, and asked my boyfriend if he thinks Target takes future wager tickets. His reply:

"Yeah Chevy, they're as good as money."

I'm also a sucker and bet a few bucks on the Oaks. And of course, the OTB is right by the liquor store... but I passed that up.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 13, 2007, 10:13 AM
The latest Graded Earnings List as of Mar 13, 2007 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37977)

You can drop off the list Dreaming of Anna, Holy Roman Empire (IRE), and maybe one or both of the other Euros (Kirklees & Mount Nelson); in doing so (if you drop off the two european racers) then that is a field of 19 today if you also drop Diane.

Romance is Diane (http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=23297) is a filly who won the G1 Hollywood Starlet Stakes in Dec but just last month (Feb 10) in the G1 Las Virgenes Stakes finished 2nd to last. It is doubful she will point to the Derby.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 14, 2007, 10:12 AM
First start in 133 days going into the Tampa Bay Derby - I just don't see Street Sense being that "wow" of a horse to come back in superior form and winning this one. Even his trainer Carl Nafzger doesn't sound exceedingly confident with AGS being the big gun in the field:


“Any Given Saturday has a race over the track and the way that he won that race was very impressive because he did what he had to do and did it the right way,” Nafzger said. “Our horse has to step up if he’s going to beat [Any Given Saturday]. It’s going to be really important how he finishes, not as much where he finishes, and [whether] we step forward and go forward.

“The main thing that we’re looking for is that you get fitness out of racing more than [in] training. Secondly, you’ve got to get that timing. It’s like playing football—you can practice all year, but it really takes a game or two to really get your timing working under the pressure of competition. You have to have so much of that to be ready, otherwise you could fall real short.”

Source: TB Times 3-13-07 (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/March/13/Nafzger-says-Street-Sense-must-step-up-to-beat-Any-Given-Saturday.aspx)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 14, 2007, 10:21 AM
Perhaps spooked by the less then thrilling performance of Birdbirdistheword in Louisiana, Kenny McPeek is going to change plans considerably and skip the Blue Grass Stakes and instead enter him into the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 31st.

A three week layoff [between Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby] instead of five shouldn't be too hard on him.

Source: BirdbirdBlog March 13th (http://birdbirdblog.blogspot.com/2007/03/birdbirds-next-start-florida-derby.html)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 15, 2007, 10:55 AM
Entries for the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on Sat Mar 17 (http://www.drf.com/entries/17/eOP17.html?rn=508708#10)

Race 10 at 1 1/16 miles


PP Horse Weight
1 Wannabeinclued 115
2 Flying First Class 115
3 Sumac 117
4 Teuflesberg 122
5 U D Ghetto 119
6 Officer Rocket (GB) 119
7 Xchanger 117
8 Curlin 115
9 Going Ballistic 119

I'll stick with Teuflesberg for the win despite giving up 7-lbs to the two blazing colts making their first stakes start: Flying First Class and Curlin

Glimmerglass
Mar. 15, 2007, 12:30 PM
The Houston Chronicle for Mar 15, 2007 (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/other/4632493.html) says this about Teuflesberg which sums it all up:


There's not much Southwest Stakes winner Teuflesberg hasn't encountered on the track. Teuflesberg has raced 13 times, 11 as a 2-year-old last year, and runs Saturday in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Teuflesberg trainer Jamie Sanders feels the experience is an advantage.

"He has plenty of seasoning," she said. "He basically ran at several different race tracks and he's won on almost all the race tracks that he's been racing on with the exception of Saratoga.

"And he's been a versatile horse. He came from (off the pace), he's been on the lead, he's been knocked down leaving the gate, he's stumbled leaving the gate, he's been sandwiched in the first turn. He's had every kind of race scenario happen to him."

All that plus he's got a pretty decent kick and drive to get to the wire should be worth a lot both in the Rebel and if his earnings go up on the first Saturday in May ;) Having Stewart Elliott up can't hurt either!

Also in the same article it cited that Merv Griffin is very excited about his prospect - Cobalt Blue who will make his graded stakes debut on Saturday in the thinly stocked 1 1/16-mile $250,000 San Felipe Stakes.

vineyridge
Mar. 15, 2007, 12:59 PM
Teuflesberg--I've come to believe that a heavily raced 2yo usually doesn't do well at 3. Maybe the other colts have caught up, or maybe the wear and tear is too much to make a full 3yo season. 3 or 4 starts at 2 doesn't bother me, but 11? That's overkill for learning purposes. It's like the owners have said "get as much out of a precocious two year old as you can, because he won't make it through the big money races at 3." Two year old starts should be for getting a baby's feet wet on the track, and not a full campaign.

I wouldn't be betting on him if I could bet.

Barnfairy
Mar. 15, 2007, 03:36 PM
Teuflesberg--I've come to believe that a heavily raced 2yo usually doesn't do well at 3. Maybe the other colts have caught up, or maybe the wear and tear is too much to make a full 3yo season. 3 or 4 starts at 2 doesn't bother me, but 11? That's overkill for learning purposes. It's like the owners have said "get as much out of a precocious two year old as you can, because he won't make it through the big money races at 3." Two year old starts should be for getting a baby's feet wet on the track, and not a full campaign.

I wouldn't be betting on him if I could bet.I know what you're saying. I tend to think of 2 year olds as babies myself. However, history has shown that it is entirely possible for horses raced extensively at 2 to go on and have successful careers at age 3 and beyond.

At age two:

Seabiscuit -- raced 11 times

Citation -- 9

Secretariat -- 9

Alydar -- 10

Affirmed -- 9

Spectacular Bid -- 9

Real Quiet -- 9

Glimmerglass
Mar. 15, 2007, 04:04 PM
I tend to agree that yes those "powerhouse" 2-yr old colts of July rarely are around come May and Derby time. However, with Teuflesberg here are his last three starts, 2 this year and 1 in very late December:

02/19/07 $250K Southwest Stakes - Oaklawn Park: Won
01/13/07 $100K Grade 3 LeComte Stakes - Fair Grounds: Show
12/24/06 $75K Sugar Bowl Stakes - Fair Grounds: Won

It looks like he's still plugging away just fine and will likely go off in the Rebel as perhaps the ML favorite. Again I view him as the Lawyer Ron of this year.

He's a good looking colt: Old workout video of him from Nov 2006 (http://www.ntrastuff.com/video.aspx?id=21597)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 15, 2007, 04:18 PM
Some really interesting remarks from Carl Nafzger as part of today's Q&A with The BloodHorse's "Talk'n Horses" series with him as a guest today (http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/CN031507.asp)

example:


Q: Is it true you don't believe in hotwalking your horses after galloping? If so I'm interested to know benefit, I've sure seen my share of hotwalkers turn 'em loose.

Nafzger: We don’t hotwalk a horse after we breeze them. We give them a bucket of water and then we take our horses into the stall and rub them out. I like the communication between the people when you’re rubbing the horse out. It’s a quieter atmosphere. It’s like with people. After you’ve run two miles, would you rather get a drink of water and a massage or would you want to walk another five miles?

Also regarding Street Sense


Q: Does Street Sense have to win both prep races to go to the Derby or is it Derby or bust? Thanks for taking your time to talk to us.

Nafzger: As long as he runs correct races, he doesn’t have to win either of these two races to go the Derby. Three things we’re looking for in the first two races, but really in the first race. We need him to get what I call “deep fitness” that you get out of a race and you can’t get out of training him. Second, you have got to get him focused on his game. Then you want him to get his timing, so he's there (at the finish). And I will be watching for what I watch for in any race, to see if the jockey makes a mistake, to see if the horse makes a mistake, or to see if I have made a mistake. Winning is not that important. These are prep races. This is not the Kentucky Derby.

Barnfairy
Mar. 15, 2007, 05:17 PM
Nafzger: We don’t hotwalk a horse after we breeze them. We give them a bucket of water and then we take our horses into the stall and rub them out. I like the communication between the people when you’re rubbing the horse out. It’s a quieter atmosphere. It’s like with people. After you’ve run two miles, would you rather get a drink of water and a massage or would you want to walk another five miles? No, I wouldn't want to walk another five miles, but I wouldn't want my muscles to lock up by the next morning because I didn't cool down and stretch out properly post-run either. I draw a difference between the average rub and a true deep-tissue massage. Besides, after having spent 23 hours locked in my room, I might just want that five mile walk after all.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 15, 2007, 09:17 PM
As mentioned the other prep race this weekend on the West Coast is rather thin ...

San Felipe Stakes - Grade 2 - at 1 1/16 Miles for $250k

(Like the Rebel it too will be aired on ESPN)

Race 9 going off at 4:30 PST


PP Horse Weight
1 Tap It Light 116
2 Cobalt Blue 116
3 Dee Rain 116
4 Air Commander 116
5 Grapelli 116
6 Level Red 116

Its a shame that such a light field would be assembled for what is a perfect opportunity to add some graded stakes money into the bank.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 15, 2007, 10:55 PM
The line up for the Tampa Bay Derby Grade 3, also to be aired on ESPN Saturday Mar 17th

$300k at 1 1/16 miles


PP - Horse - Weight - ML Odds
1 Optimistic Steve 116 15-1
2 Street Sense 122 4-5
3 All I Can Get 116 8-1
4 Any Given Saturday 120 9-5
5 Most Distinguished 116 15-1
6 Lisselan Muse 116 30-1
7 Delightful Kiss 116 12-1

Street Sense with that huge of layoff giving as much as 6 pounds to others?

Glimmerglass
Mar. 16, 2007, 01:02 PM
Interesting aside, this documentary has been cited on equidaily.com, bloodhorse, and others - its nice to see some recognition:

Mar 16, 2007 Tribeca Film Festival announces final film sections (http://movies.monstersandcritics.com/news/article_1278422.php/Tribeca_Film_Festival_announces_final_film_section s)


The First Saturday in May, a documentary directed by The Hennegan Brothers, written by The Hennegan Brothers and Mark Krewatch. (U.S.A) – World Premiere. Heartbreak and hope abound in this engrossing documentary about the holy grail of horse racing—the Kentucky Derby. Two brothers travel from Arkansas to Dubai and on to Churchill Downs to trace the paths of six rising equine stars, including the heroic Barbaro, and the people, passion and dreams at the core of this breakneck competition.

The website for this film ...

http://www.henneganbrothers.com/

EventerAJ
Mar. 17, 2007, 06:17 PM
The line up for the Tampa Bay Derby Grade 3, also to be aired on ESPN Saturday Mar 17th

$300k at 1 1/16 miles



Street Sense with that huge of layoff giving as much as 6 pounds to others?


Nice run by Street Sense. He hung way back in 4th for most the race, then made his move coming out of the turn. Good effort by Saturday for hanging in there, but Street Sense got it by a whisker.

I like this colt. Can he beat the BC Juvie curse?

DLee
Mar. 17, 2007, 07:30 PM
Oh I am a Curlin fan! :yes:

Glimmerglass
Mar. 17, 2007, 08:32 PM
Only during ESPN's coverage of the Rebel Stakes did the purchase price get disclosed for Curlin: Jess Jackson and his lawyers (no, I'm not kidding) paying $3.5 million. Looks like he is happy to pay above and beyond when he wants something and wants it now. Oh wait that was the feedback regarding his Kentucky farm purchase too, which he's suing over as well for "over" paying ...

Going to the Kentucky Derby with just three prior races? Well Showing Up last year did the same thing [3 3-0-0] under Barclay Tagg and SU finished a very impressive 6th for such little experience.

Then again he broke the 1-mile track record (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_coverage/derby_entrants/showing_up/index.html?videonumber=2) [in 1:34 flat] March 11, 2006 at Gulfstream. Then made it into the Derby by virtue of winning the G2 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland April 22nd.

vineyridge
Mar. 18, 2007, 03:09 PM
New track record set for mile and a sixteenth at one of the 3 yo races Saturday. Anyone remember which one off the top of your heads? I THINK it was Street Sense, but I'm not sure.

If he stays sound, he might be the one to break the jinx.

Laurel&HollyFarm
Mar. 18, 2007, 05:41 PM
Nice run by Street Sense. He hung way back in 4th for most the race, then made his move coming out of the turn. Good effort by Saturday for hanging in there, but Street Sense got it by a whisker.

I like this colt. Can he beat the BC Juvie curse?

Wow :eek: :eek: . I just watched this race. Thanks to whoever posted the link to calracing for the replays. That was so close!

Glimmerglass
Mar. 18, 2007, 07:00 PM
New track record set for mile and a sixteenth at one of the 3 yo races Saturday. I THINK it was Street Sense, but I'm not sure.

You would be correct.

Jerry Bailey's commentary during ESPN's coverage wasn't as favorable as a result of the race. While he ranked Street Sense as his #1 pick of this year's top Derby contenders he thought perhaps he had to work far too hard to get this win. Often of course a horse will 'bounce' in their next effort or simply reach their zenith during a prep and never attain that level of performance again.

[He cited a valid point with a horse he rode - Read The Footnotes - and his brilliant speed duel with the ate Second of June in the Fountain of Youth Stakes - RTF never performed to that level again.]

Also Any Given Saturday for having not put away a horse that had been off this much of a layoff could be somewhat knocked for not being more in form.

Bottom line, as Jerry said, only their next respective races will tell if this duel may have perhaps ruined either or both horse's chance at being up to the task of the Derby.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 19, 2007, 01:20 AM
Regarding some of the horses who raced this weekend - where are they going next?

Fom Brisnet, et al a few answers (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=216)

Officer Rocket (GB) who finished second in the Rebel: Arkansas Derby

Teuflesberg, who finished 3rd in the Rebel, is heading to Keeneland for the April 21 Lexington Stakes (G2) and skipping the seemingly more logical Arkansas Derby. His trainer Ms. Jamie Sanders siad this of his effort:


"The start really hurt him. He hopped pretty badly at the break, and that cost him position. Considering that, he ran a good race. He made a good run along with the winner, and finished well. I'm proud of him."
Flying First Class who wound up eighth but went off as the 9-5 favorite in the Rebel is unclear. That was just his first stakes effort - although the same was true for winner Curlin too ;)

Curlin after winning the Rebel Stakes will stay in Arkansas and will try next the April 14 Arkansas Derby (G2)

Street Sense and his connections are very happy with the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) victory and remain firmly on course for the April 14 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 19, 2007, 09:04 AM
AS of Monday Mar 19 - Associated Press Top 10 for the Derby (http://www.greenwichtime.com/sports/nationworld/ats-ap_sports19mar19,0,371843.story?coll=sns-sports-headlines):

(abridged)

Dropping out this week are Stormello and King of the Roxy:

1. Street Sense - Next start: Blue Grass (April 14). ... Derby Future Odds (pool 2): 8-1.
2. Great Hunter - Next start: Blue Grass (April 14). ... Odds: 11-1.
3. Circular Quay - Next start: Wood Memorial (April 7). ... Odds: 8-1.
4. Scat Daddy - Next start: Florida Derby (March 31). ... Odds: 16-1.
5. Nobiz Like Shobiz - Blinkers on for next race - Next start: Wood Memorial (April 7). ... Odds: 8-1.
6. Ravel - Next start: Santa Anita Derby (April 7). ... Odds: 11-1.
7. Any Given Saturday - Next start: Undecided. ... Odds: 11-1.
8. Notional - Next start: Florida Derby (March 31). ... Odds: 22-1.
9. Cobalt Blue - Next start: Illinois Derby (April 7). ... Odds: 38-1.
10. Curlin - Next start: Arkansas Derby (April 14). ... Odds: 30-1.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Adore the Gold, Cowtown Cat, Hard Spun, King of the Roxy, Stormello.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 19, 2007, 04:48 PM
A bit of a flip, flop for Bird ...

As taken from the birdbirdblog for Saturday Mar 17 (http://birdbirdblog.blogspot.com/)

"Owner Ray Cottrell, Sr. and trainer Ken McPeek have reconsidered the Florida Derby as Birdbird's next start. They have decided to revert back to Plan A, which was to ship the colt to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) on April 14th.

Birdbird last ran at Keeneland in the Lane's End Futurity last October where he was a credible fourth to the likes of Great Hunter and Street Sense (he was scoped after the race and was disagnosed with a lung infection). Birdbird will work five furlongs later in the week and then ship to Keeneland to train for his date in the Blue Grass"


Perhaps spooked by the less then thrilling performance of Birdbirdistheword in Louisiana, Kenny McPeek is going to change plans considerably and skip the Blue Grass Stakes and instead enter him into the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 31st.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 20, 2007, 02:12 PM
From this week's Kentucky Derby Trail coverage by the Bloodhorse and Steve Haskin (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38068) - Mar 20, 2007:


Southwest winner Teuflesberg acted up in the gate and missed the break, costing him any chance. That didn’t leave too much for Curlin to beat, and those fractions of 1:12 2/5 and 1:38 must have seemed awfully slow to a horse with his speed. Officer Rocket, runner-up in the Southwest, ran the identical race, making a premature move down the backstretch, dropping back after running up behind horses, and then coming on in the final furlong to get second.

So, as impressive as Curlin looked, the jury is still out on this race.


In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense rattled off three straight quarters in :24 flat before coming home his final sixteenth in a sharp :06 1/5 to set a track record for a mile and a sixteenth. Any Given Saturday’s fractions were equally as impressive. These are two terrific horses, pure and simple.

Bits: Nobiz Like Shobiz is starting to get serious again, breezing five furlongs in a bullet :59 4/5 at Gulfstream for the Wood Memorial (G1).

From the oops, we calcualted it wrong dept: Summer Doldrums 106 Beyer figure in the Whirlaway Stakes was dropped significantly to a 94 AFTER the Gotham Stakes (G3). Making his trainer none too pleased

Glimmerglass
Mar. 21, 2007, 09:42 AM
A wee bit optimistic on Curlin's talent ...

Philadelphia Inquirer 3/20 "Craig Donnelly's top-10 list" (http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20070320_Road_to_the_Kentucky_Derby.html)


1. STREET SENSE
2. CURLIN
3. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
4. CIRCULAR QUAY
5. STORMELLO
6. GREAT HUNTER
7. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
8. HARD SPUN
9. NOTIONAL
10. CHELOKEE

Speaking of Chelokee his next start is said to be the Lane's End Stakes (G2) which will be aired this Saturday on ESPN

Lane's End Stakes
Grade: II Purse: $500,000
Distance: 9 Furlongs Age: 3-Year-Olds
Track: Turfway Park
TV: ESPN at Saturday, March 24, 2007 @ 5:45 PM EST

It looks to be a full field for the Lane's End too - under consideration for it - with 166 nominations, here are the likely entries:


Hard Spun, Forefathers, Approval Rating, Brainy Benny, Bullara, Catman Running, Chelokee, For You Reppo, Helios, Joe Got Even, Love Dubai, Pink Viper, Sedgefield, Sports Town, Starbase, and Twilight Meteor.

Forefathers [Zito trained/Zayat owned] has speed galore which will ensure a very solid pace

Xctrygirl
Mar. 21, 2007, 10:24 AM
Not to burst your bubble Glimmer but that article is seeming incorrect (With regards to Chelokee)

According to both a Brisnet report
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/journal/full_edition.cgi
and the NTRA are saying that Chelokee will not be running at Turfway.
http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=23976

The Brisnet article has the run down of likely starters, and Chelokee isn't listed among them. And the Ntra article has this quote,


"The advantages of the Florida Derby are the big purse and the fact it's here and he's already run and won over the track," said Matz. "The disadvantages would be the fact it comes up a little quick, I'd rather he'd have five weeks than four to his next start, and that if you draw an outside post you can be in big trouble here."


Most people doing articles on upcoming stake races, before the entry draws, have to talk to the stakes coordinator and see which horses are likely to run. The stakes coordinator's job is to check with trainers often and get a pulse on which horses who are nominated are live and which are not. Since there is a conflict between a couple articles I am thinking that the stakes coordinator at Turfway may have spoken to Michael and gotten a less than clear picture. And since Mr. Matz is the current Derby winning trainer, well wouldn't it be wise ot entice the press with the thought that this year's horse out of the "Barbaro Barn" could be coming to Turfway?? Hmmmm. Especially since this race is a bit bland if Hard Spun doesn't romp. No disrespect intended, but these horses (Excluding HS) aren't in the top tier of TC hopefuls. Although Forefathers could be interesting.


But since entries are today we'll know soon for sure.

~Emily

Glimmerglass
Mar. 21, 2007, 11:04 AM
Not to burst your bubble Glimmer but that article is seeming incorrect (With regards to Chelokee)

None burst ;)

Actually I too did the "math" so to speak with a prior posting based upon MM's comments that he wasn't ready for the FL Derby. I illustrated that based upon those remarks there are only a handful of races that are possible.

However I assumed that the new article was based upon a change of plans ;)

Here are the graded stakes races after the FL Derby (Mar 31) that Chelokee would have to enter and win [to build up graded stakes money] to have a shot at being one of the 20 entries May 5th:

RACE -- GRADE -- DATE -- TOTAL PURSE [assume winner's share at ~ 60%]
^ Central Bank Transylvania S. (G3-T) Apr 6 $150k
Santa Anita Derby (G1) Apr 7 $750k
Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) Apr 7 $750k
Illinois Derby (G2) Apr 7 $500k
^ Bay Shore Stakes (G3) Apr 7 $150k
Arkansas Derby (G2) Apr 14 $1 million
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) Apr 14 $750k
Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) Apr 21 $325k
^ Withers Stakes (G3) Apr 28 $150k

^ even if he wins these races he likely would be outside looking in with graded money

lizathenag
Mar. 21, 2007, 11:11 AM
I notice that Office Rocket is from the Man O' War line. That is a nice change.

Xctrygirl
Mar. 21, 2007, 11:29 AM
Glimmer, you have a pm

~Emily

Linny
Mar. 21, 2007, 11:57 AM
Circular Quay(1)
Street Sense(4)~ Big return
Scat Daddy (2)~3/17 work in 1:02 for Florida Derby
Any Given Saturday (3)~Game second
Stormello (5)~worked 3/16 in :59.60 at Hollywood for Florida Derby
Nobiz Like Shobiz (6)~3/14 :49.80 then 3/20 in :59.80 for the Wood
Great Hunter(7)~Blue Grass is next
Cowtown Cat(9)~Wood Memorial next
Ketchikan(10)~likely for Blue Grass (?)
Ravel(8)~ Santa Anita Derby next
Curlin~Arkansas Derby possibly off big stakes debut
Cobalt Blue~possible for the Illinois DerbyHere's my latest list.

Xctrygirl
Mar. 21, 2007, 02:00 PM
Hard Spun is in post 10 out of 12 for the Lane's End. I called down to Turfway and asked.

Overnight should hit their website within the next hour.

~Emily

Glimmerglass
Mar. 21, 2007, 02:46 PM
DRF 3-21-07 "Ravel injured and off Derby trail" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/83380.html)


Ravel, who won last month's Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and would have been one of the leading contenders in the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 7, is out of that race and off the trail for the May 5 Kentucky Derby after developing what appears to be the beginnings of a fracture in his left front cannon bone, trainer Todd Pletcher said Wednesday morning.

According to Pletcher, Ravel first was "a little off in his left front" over the weekend. Subsequent X-rays failed to find a problem, but when Ravel was examined via nuclear scintigraphy, "it lit up his left front cannon bone," Pletcher said.

"We can't find anything on the X-rays, but the feeling, based on the nuclear scintigraphy, is that he's starting to develop a fracture, and it would turn into a condylar fracture if we breezed him," Pletcher said from Florida. "It's a tough blow. He's obviously a talented horse, but it wasn't meant to be."

Pletcher said Ravel likely would be out of training for three months, and then point for a fall campaign, but said it was hard to pinpoint the length of his recovery due to the lack of specificity regarding the injury.

"It's rest and no surgery at this point," Pletcher said.

Regarding the Grade 2 Lane's End Stakes

1 1/8 mi [on "All Weather Track" read: polytrack] purse $500k

Post, Horse, Jockey
1 Highest Degree, Quinonez A
2 Starbase, Thompson T J
3 Sports Town, Bridgmohan S
4 Approval Rating, Husbands P
5 Bullara, Velazquez J
6 Forefathers, Leparoux J R
7 Twilight Meteor, Prado E S
8 Helios Hill, C
9 Joe Got Even, Mena M
10 Hard Spun, Pino M
11 For You Reppo, Desormeaux K
12 Sedgefield, Bejarano R

Julien aboard Forefathers should be a great match!

Linny
Mar. 21, 2007, 02:50 PM
I had my suspicions. In fact check out www.equidaily.com (http://www.equidaily.com) to see the comments next to the heading "Wood's Derby Dozen: Ravel drops..."

lizathenag
Mar. 21, 2007, 03:01 PM
Guess I can throw out that future book ticket. . .!

Glimmerglass
Mar. 21, 2007, 03:06 PM
Guess I can throw out that future book ticket. . .!

Hey, I still have my $10 Galloping Grocer future bet ticket floating somewhere around my office :D

Glimmerglass
Mar. 21, 2007, 03:33 PM
I had my suspicions. In fact check out equidaily.com (http://www.equidaily.com) to see the comments next to the heading "Wood's Derby Dozen: Ravel drops..."

Very nice :)

Linny's list from 3/20 (http://www.capitalotb.com/?action=newsdetail&mode=073480d0-3559-477a-a478-9a49adb920e1&type=1)


One other move of note on the list is the dropping down of Ravel from eighth to tenth. Ravel appears to be a capable colt but he has not appeared on the worktab since Feb 11th. I have to wonder if he’s had a setback. If not, seems a leisurely training pattern for so lightly raced a colt, looking to win the Kentucky Derby.

Ok, so Linny if you look into that magic crystal ball one more time who will be crossing the finish line on Saturday May 5 ....

Glimmerglass
Mar. 23, 2007, 12:25 AM
The Daily Racing Form for Mar 22nd (http://www.drf.com/news/article/83423.html) seems to be dishing out the slams left and right:


Will the 2007 Santa Anita Derby be the weakest in history, or was that last year's race? At least 2006 had a legitimate favorite in Brother Derek. No matter who starts favored in the 2007 Santa Anita Derby, that 3-year-old will be suspect.


They say Ravel is off the Derby trail. Was he ever on it? It is hard to believe a serious Derby candidate wins a prep race such as the Grade 3 Sham in early February and then points for a subsequent start more than two months later in April (Santa Anita Derby). When they are handled with kid gloves, they probably aren't tough enough for the Derby.


It has been five years since the Grade 2 San Felipe was won by a horse (Medaglia d'Oro) who later achieved anything special as an older horse. Considering that Cobalt Blue was handed the San Felipe on a silver platter last weekend (opening half in 47.57 seconds, six furlongs in 1:11.64), it will be a surprise if Cobalt Blue followed in Medaglia d'Oro's footsteps.

Yikes!

Glimmerglass
Mar. 24, 2007, 09:55 AM
TV Alert: ESPN will be carrying the Lane's End Stakes Sat 2/24 at 5 pm Eastern (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2810044)

Race 10 - 1 1/8 mi Grade 2

Entries


PP Horse [all weight is 121]
1 Highest Degree
2 Starbase <- Wayne Lukas
3 Sports Town
4 Approval Rating
5 Bullara <- Pletcher
6 Forefathers <- ridden by Leparoux, trained by Zito
7 Twilight Meteor < -Pletcher
8 Helios Hill
9 Joe Got Even
10 Hard Spun
11 For You Reppo
12 Sedgefield

Glimmerglass
Mar. 24, 2007, 06:08 PM
A very solid win by Hard Spun in a very fast race, showing he can bounce back. With Forefathers finishing a very surprising last I wonder if he wasn't injured or if those opening fractions just didn't suck away all the power he had.

Barnfairy
Mar. 24, 2007, 07:36 PM
I'm interested to see how Street Sense will come back when he takes on Hard Spun, as is the current plan, in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

VirginiaBred
Mar. 25, 2007, 07:17 AM
Media reports on Hard Spun's victory:
Hard Spun Regains Winning Form in Lane's End (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38144)
Hard Spun rebounds in Lane's End (http://drf.com/news/article/83494.html)
Hard Spun wins Lane's End, reaffirms status as Kentucky Derby contender (http://thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/March/24/Hard-Spun-wins-Lanes-End-reaffirms-status-as-Kentucky-Derby-contender.aspx)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 26, 2007, 09:49 PM
Nobiz Like Shobiz (remember him?) has been working out with a very astute partner - Funny Cide. Today they together put in an excellent if not bullet-like workout! Source: Brisnet 3/26/07 (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=7358)


[Nobiz] worked stride-for-stride with 2003 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1) winner Funny Cide on Monday at Gulfstream Park. The pair went five furlongs on a fast track in a bullet :59 4/5, the co-fastest of 18 works at the distance. Observers clocked both galloping out six furlongs in 1:13 and seven furlongs in 1:27.


Nobiz Like Shobiz is scheduled to make his next start in the $750,000 Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct on April 7. The bay colt will catch a flight to the Big Apple two days before the nine-furlong race.

"I don't think there will be much of a crowd at Aqueduct," Tagg said. "Everything is a concern when you're trying to get to the Derby. I can't worry about how big the crowd is or how he's going to act if we get him there. I can't control it. It's just another thing you worry about in this business."

Since we are mentioning the Kentucky Derby Alumnus, Funny Cide is likely to start at Keeneland on the polytrack.


Tagg indicated Funny Cide is tentatively slated to make his seasonal debut in an allowance race opening week on Polytrack at Keeneland, but he was unsure if the popular gelding would be ready on time.

NBC Sports by the way will be airing the Florida Derby live on ... the internet. Live coverage of the $1-million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday [March 31] will be streamed live on NBCSports.com at 5:15 p.m. EDT.