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Glimmerglass
Dec. 16, 2005, 08:34 AM
It is that time again with the future betting on the Kentucky Derby - I have to admit a lot of the names with low odds never were on my radar with juvenile stakes wins. Others have put in great runs this summer/fall and yet are getting little respect.

Case in point - Master of Disaster who won with impressive ease but took 3rd to Henny Hughes at Saratoga is currently 60-1

Caesars/Bally's Vegas odds as of 12-06-05 (http://www.caesars.com/NR/rdonlyres/3DC8D38E-88A3-4E97-9203-6632CDBC7B42/0/BLV_kderby.pdf)

1. (tied) Private Vow (http://www.privatevow.com/) 12-1 (won G2 Kentucky Jockey Club)
(tied) Stevie Wonderboy (http://www.merv.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=category.display&category_ID=86) 12-1 (won BC Juvenile)

3. Bluegrass Cat (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10255464/from/RL.2/) 15 -1 (Todd Pletcher trained; won the G2 Remsen Stakes)

4. (tied) First Samurai (http://www.horsehats.com/FirstSamurai.html) 20-1
(tied) A.P. Warrior (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10469968/) 20-1 (in the G1 Hollywood Futurity Dec 17th)

6. Flanders Fields 25/1 (by AP Indy)

7. (tied) Henny Hughes 30/1 (owned by Godolphin; won G2 Saratoga Special, bought for $4.3 million in July 2005)
(tied) Dr. Pleasure 30/1 (by Thunder Gulch)
(tied) Sir Percy 30/1
(tied) Stream Cat 30/1 (won G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile)
(tied) Sunriver 30/1

Highest filly: Adieu at 60/1

Interestingly there is a horse, George Washington - I wonder, how did that get by the Jockey Club when the purported name of the slave mistress of President Thomas Jefferson was nixed? http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Other names of note that I recall from 2005:
Catcominatcha 60/1
Dawn of War 100/1
High Cotton 35/1
Laity 100/1
Menacing 100/1
Sharp Attack 100/1
Too Much Bling 150/1

Bacchus
Dec. 16, 2005, 10:18 AM
I'll bet they got someone named George Washington to sign a release of the name. Thanks for the odds.

lizathenag
Dec. 16, 2005, 10:24 AM
I happened to see the Flash Stakes on tv this summer. It was a three horse photo. THe times were slow but all three looked like racehorses to me!
they were
Beacon Shine (75-1)
Speed of Sound (150-1) and
Union Course (100-1).

we shall see!

Glimmerglass
Dec. 16, 2005, 10:27 AM
One follow-up: Your Tent Or Mine listed at 35/1

Los Angeles Daily News 12/16/05 - "Your Tent or Mine is one to watch in Futurity" (http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_3313227)

excerpt:

On Nov. 19, a Drysdale-trained 2-year-old named Your Tent or Mine went into the Hollywood Prevue Stakes as the 6-1 long shot in a five-horse field and came out of the starting gate dead last.

But Your Tent or Mine and jockey Patrick Valenzuela caught front-running Da Stoops in mid-stretch and pulled away to win by 2 lengths.

In the process, Your Tent or Mine burned up the main track, clocking 1:21.12 in the fastest 7 furlongs of the meet by a horse of any age.

That performance makes Your Tent or Mine a contender to win Saturday's Hollywood Futurity, the $401,250 race that highlights the closing weekend of the six-week season.

If the cleverly named colt - he's by Forest Camp, out of Shes Got the Look - wins the Futurity, Drysdale will leave Hollywood Park with a prospect for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.

Glimmerglass
Dec. 16, 2005, 03:38 PM
worth pointing out - ESPN's horse page (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/index) has a video link (see right side, mid page, just below the Youbet.com ad)

Of the video offerings if you click on "more videos" include the impressive win by Your Tent or Mine also Bluegrass Cat's Remsen Stakes win.

Not to mention several races are with Vic Stauffer making the race call - one of the best callers out there. He can really make a final charge that much more exciting!

Drumbiggle
Dec. 16, 2005, 10:07 PM
George Washington is a Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien horse, so he would have been registered with Weatherbys and not the JC.

Beezer
Dec. 16, 2005, 10:46 PM
Hm. Rather like Bluegrass Cat. Particulary at those odds. Must get my pal in Vegas to drop some money for me on one of the race books. http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_cool.gif

Glimmerglass
Dec. 17, 2005, 04:35 PM
Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
Los Angeles Daily News 12/16/05 - "Your Tent or Mine is one to watch in Futurity" (http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_3313227)

If the cleverly named colt - he's by Forest Camp, out of Shes Got the Look - wins the Futurity, Drysdale will leave Hollywood Park with a prospect for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.[/i]

An upset in the Futurity - but it wasn't Your Tent or Mine http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Hollywood Park 12/17/05 8th Race - Results (http://www.drf.com/results/17/rHOL17.html?rn=565172#8)

Win: Brother Derek
Place: Your Tent Or Mine <-- went off as 2nd fav at 8-5
Show: Bob and John

4th - A. P. Warrior <- went off as the 5-2 favorite

Note Kentucky Derby odds, prior to today's race:

Brother Derek 40/1
Bob and John (who was previously DQ'd from a graded win on a terrible call) 35/1

summerly
Dec. 18, 2005, 12:49 PM
GO PRIVATE VOW http://chronicleforums.com/images/custom_smilies/yes.gif !!!!!

Glimmerglass
Dec. 19, 2005, 02:14 PM
On Brother Derek's win Saturday (http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-horse18dec18,1,6306341.story?coll=la-headlines-sports)

"Don't kid yourself, all we think about is winning the Derby," said trainer Dan Hendricks. "If you ask 1,000 people on the street about horse racing, they're going to say Kentucky Derby and Bill Shoemaker."

[snip]

Brother Derek was purchased in March for $275,000 and named after a Mormon missionary.

.....................

Was was last year's Hollywood Park Futurity winner? Giacomo http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Glimmerglass
Dec. 22, 2005, 11:45 AM
How many times I have seen this same type of article, ponding if the "Breeders' Cup Jinx" will be broken this year ...

Yep, Stevie Wonderboy will have this buzz, and sadly high expectation on him, until another massive effort by another horse (a la Bellamy Road) puts in a breath taking effort in a 2006 prep race.

MSNBS/NBC Sports 12/21/05 "Stevie Wonderboy will try to be first to win both Breeders' Cup, Derby" (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10481133/)

snip:

Stevie Wonderboy will need to continue his forward progression to end the 0-for-21 skid, but the probable 2-year-old Eclipse Winner has a large following. He is expected to make his first start in the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita on January 14, which will be one of the most highly anticipated returns of any horse. The game is his to lose.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 3, 2006, 08:13 AM
Could trainer Michael Matz have a Derby contender under his control? Maybe. While Barbaro is a turf horse thus far he could switch over ...

Blood-Horse 1/1/06 "Barbaro Stays Hot in Tropical Park Derby" (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31557)

excerpt:

"He's obviously a very talented horse," Matz said. "Whether he carries the class he shows on turf over to the dirt, we just don't know yet, but his mother and half-brother (Holy Ground) ran well on the dirt. So, we'll talk it over with the Jacksons to see whether we try him on dirt next."

With $60,000 in graded stakes earnings he already is much more near the typical $110,000 minimum cut-off http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Barbaro was not listed in the Bally's/Caesars betting pool by name and would instead be part of the "Field (all others)" at a less juicy 7/2

Glimmerglass
Jan. 3, 2006, 08:35 AM
Could this be ... yes! An early top 25 list Blood-Horse (Steve Haskin) 1-3-05 - "Kentucky Derby Trail: On Your Mark, Get Set... " (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31570)

Excerpted without the comments:


1 – Stevie Wonderboy
2 – Private Vow
3 – First Samurai
4 – Your Tent or Mine
5 – Brother Derek
6 – Bluegrass Cat
7 – Barbaro
8 – High Cotton
9 – Henny Hughes
10 – Bob and John
11 – A.P. Warrior
12 – Saint Daimon
13 – Stream Cat
14 – Superfly
15 – Flashy Bull
16 – Dawn of War
17 – Saint Augustus
18 – Dr. Pleasure
19 – Half Ours
20 – Little Cliff
21 – Catcominatcha
22 – Fabled
23 – Wanna Runner
24 – Bashert
25 – My Golden Song

Several others are cited outside of the list.

Things are getting interesting http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Glimmerglass
Jan. 4, 2006, 07:20 AM
The Saratogian 1/4/06 - "It's not too early to look toward the Derby" (http://www.saratogian.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=15865698&BRD=1169&PAG=740&dept_id=349537&rfi=6) .. here are Michael Veitch (you, know his brother knows a thing or two about the Triple Crown chase) and his top 10 as of now:


side note - contender comments removed
They are ranked in order of the writer's preference.

1. BLUEGRASS CAT
2. STEVIE WONDERBOY
3. FIRST SAMURAI
4. PRIVATE VOW
5. HENNY HUGHES
6. BROTHER DEREK "Very capable grandson of Alydar" http://chronicleforums.com/images/custom_smilies/winkgrin.gif
7. SORCERER'S STONE
8. A. P. WARRIOR
9. YOUR TENT OR MINE
10. BOB AND JOHN

Aside: Godolphin co-owner, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashed al-Maktoum (http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/dubai-ruler-dies-on-gold-coast/2006/01/04/1136050490690.html) (see contender 'Henny Hughes' above) died in Australia today.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 4, 2006, 08:07 AM
Hopefully I'm not hammering away too much on this topic of the 3-yr old racing season http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Associated Press 1/3/06 - "Stevie Wonderboy Set for 3-Year-Old Debut" (http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-rac-stevie-wonderboy,1,4226961.story?coll=sns-ap-sports-headlines)

Excerpt:

... is set to open his 3-year-old campaign in the San Rafael Stakes [Grade-2] on Jan. 14

- snip -

The colt, named for singer-songwriter Stevie Wonder, became the early favorite for the May 6 Derby with his win in the Juvenile and all but wrapped up the Eclipse Award as 2-year-old male champion.

[Merv] Griffin, a 15-time Emmy Award winner, won't be at Santa Anita for the race.

"He's on a yacht in the Virgin Islands," O'Neill said. http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

Glimmerglass
Jan. 6, 2006, 11:30 AM
Another horse now on the columnist's radar is one cited last year and is none other than Lost In The Fog's stablemate: Frisco Star

(Aside for trivia, his original name: Monster on the Loose)

Blood-Horse 1/6/06 - "Steve Haskin's Derby Trail Stakes Preview: Aventura Comes Up Strong" (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31611)

excerpt:


Another colt of interest from the same connections as one of last year's biggest stars is Frisco Star, who began his career in much the same manner as his stablemate Lost in the Fog. Also owned by Harry Aleo, Frisco Star, a son of More Than Ready, broke his maiden by 8 1/2 lengths on Aug. 6 at Santa Rosa in a track-record 1:01 3/5 for 5 1/2 furlongs. He is up to five furlongs in his works at Golden Gate, and rattled off a half in :46 2/5 three works back on Dec. 17.

also worth citing ...


The most notable was Tatsuji, an Irish-bred son of Fusaichi Pegasus who turned in a spectacular performance in his career debut at Santa Anita, in which he got squeezed at the start, dropping far back in last, then unleashed a powerhouse move to sweep by everyone. Despite racing greenly, ducking in at the three-sixteenths pole, he still was able to get back in gear and draw off to an impressive two-length score for last year's Derby-winning connections, John Shirreffs and Jerry and Ann Moss.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 8, 2006, 01:37 PM
Another one to watch: Achilles of Troy (trained by Jennifer Pedersen) who put in a very impressive stakes-record field crushing effort in the Count Fleet Stakes yesterday. Its worth pulling up the NYRA race video on line to see it.

NY Daily News 1/8/06 (http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more_sports/story/380951p-323487c.html)

excerpt:


As impressive as Smarty Jones was ìn winning the Count Fleet Stakes two years ago, Achilles of Troy was even more so yesterday, scoring by 14 lengths after running the mile-and-70-yards in a stakes-record time of 1:39.61 for the distance.

Smarty Jones, of course, went on to capture the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness and while it's a long way to go to the May 6 Kentucky Derby, Achilles of Troy looks like he has the ability as long as he stays healthy.

Entering the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia asked on Achilles of Troy ($8.70), and the 3-year-old responded with an explosive run, opening up through the lane to score over Extra Bend and Platinum Couple.

For comparison's sake, Smarty Jones won the 2004 Count Fleet by five lengths, running the distance in 1:41.42.

Although the connections still haven't decided on where Achilles of Troy will start next, the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 11 would seem logical, followed by the March 18 Gotham Stakes and then the April 8 Wood Memorial before they can dream of a trip to Churchill Downs for the Derby.

Slewdledo
Jan. 8, 2006, 03:58 PM
Too Much Bling just blew the San Miguel field away at Santa Anita. He's probably only a sprinter, though.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 9, 2006, 08:45 AM
A very nice effort - in particular the game, dig in with the stretch duel, "eye to eye" - by Doctor Decherd to win the $125,000 Aventura S. at Gulfstream Park (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=3245)

In the duel, Itsallboutthechase took 2nd while My Golden Song took 3rd. In Summation the favorite took 5th while Catcominatcha came in a poor 7th.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 10, 2006, 01:40 PM
Steve Haskin (Blood-Horse) has his new update on the Derby Trail and reiterates some of the above action, like Doctor Decherd, Achilles of Troy, and Too Much Bling.

I liked his remark - as I feel the same way - with the naming convention for Itsallaboutthechase:


As for Itsallboutthechase, his potential and his pedigree make up for his name (sorry, I just dislike those one-word, 18-letter names that roll off the tongue as smoothly as bulldozer over broken glass. It's bad enough giving a horse a sentence for a name, regardless of its derivation, it's even worse when the sentence is so long you can't even fit it into the name and have to start chopping letters off.)

Other horses he cites in the 1/10/06 BloodHorse article (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31663):


One horse to keep an eye on is Keyed Entry, who wired an allowance field on the Aventura card to win by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:09 2/5. The son of Honour and Glory is now two-for-two for Pletcher, but he still has to show what he can do going two turns.

- snip -

Pletcher also saddled the impressive maiden winner Exclusive Quality on the same card. The son of Elusive Quality, who cost $850,000 as a yearling, came between, then around, horses from fifth to win by two lengths in 1:10 3/5. He is another who is by a brilliant stallion, but has good stamina in his tail-female family. He showed excellent acceleration on the far turn and again in the stretch. The main lesson to be learned from his race is that he dislikes the whip, throwing his tail up every time he was hit.

- snip -

In other races this weekend, Final Copy made it three in a row winning the Turfway Prevue Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths. The son of Souvenir Copy still has not been over seven furlongs in seven career starts, but he has a strong pedigree, with an excellent combination of speed and stamina, the latter of which he gets from his maternal great-grandsire Alleged.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 12, 2006, 06:46 AM
A brave, if not slightly foolish, statement to make January 12th ...

Bisnet/The Handicapper's Edge (John Mucciolo) 1/12/06 - "Why Private Vow will win the Kentucky Derby" (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=3266)

His race at Belmont (9/17/05) with the G2-Futurity and the riderless horse staying with him to the wire was fun to watch http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

I myself am still a big Henny Hughes fan and until we see evidence of Dubai having taken the best out of him, I suspect he'll be a significant threat.

lizathenag
Jan. 12, 2006, 11:30 AM
<Of the last five Derby heroes, their names are between seven and 11 letters, Private Vow is 10>

probably as good a way to pick 'em as any ;-)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 13, 2006, 07:56 AM
Originally posted by lizathenag:
<Of the last five Derby heroes, their names are between seven and 11 letters, Private Vow is 10>

probably as good a way to pick 'em as any ;-)

For what it is worth my fiance picked Giacamo for the Derby (and made a tidy fortune) simply because it was the name of her driver when she spent time at a cooking school in Tuscany.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 13, 2006, 08:05 AM
TV Alert

Saturday's 1-mile $150,000 Grade-2 San Rafael @ Santa Anita will be televised on ESPN News at approximately 3:16 p.m. Pacific time (so 6:16 pm Eastern).

This will be largely a match up of two top 5 Derby prospects - Brother Derek and Stevie Wonderboy. The field of six also includes the bullet Wanna Runner who starts a stakes race for the first time and comes into the race winning his first two starts.

The entire field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. ODDS

1 Woody Be Quick
2 Brother Derek
3 M. J. Pkay
4 Wanna Runner
5 Stevie Wonderboy
6 Sailors Sunset

I can easily see Brother Derek winning this race as I am not a "wow" fan of Stevie. I still think his 1 1/2 length victory over Henny Hughes in the BC Juvenile was simply because HH's jock engaged in a foolish speed duel early and he came up slightly empty in the end.

lizathenag
Jan. 13, 2006, 11:00 AM
for what it's worth, my partner picked Giacomo cause he was grey and Closing Argument cause she's a lawyer. . .

Glimmerglass
Jan. 13, 2006, 11:58 AM
In today's (1/13) Blood-Horse article by Steve Haskin's (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31708) he thinks that tomorrow's race will be all Stevie:


So, let's look for Stevie Wonderboy to win by a length or two in solid, but not spectacular, time over Brother Derek. If the track should come up wet, then it's anyone's guess what's going to happen.

We shall see as I think otherwise http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif


Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
I can easily see Brother Derek winning this race as I am not a "wow" fan of Stevie.

Worth pointing out: The one-mile San Rafael is the first test around two turns for Stevie Wonderboy, while Brother Derek is a two-time stakes winner around two turns.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 14, 2006, 05:16 PM
Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
In today's (1/13) Blood-Horse article by Steve Haskin's (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31708) he thinks that tomorrow's race will be all Stevie:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">So, let's look for Stevie Wonderboy to win by a length or two in solid, but not spectacular, time over Brother Derek. If the track should come up wet, then it's anyone's guess what's going to happen.

We shall see as I think otherwise http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif


Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
I can easily see Brother Derek winning this race as I am not a "wow" fan of Stevie.

Worth pointing out: The one-mile San Rafael is the first test around two turns for Stevie Wonderboy, while Brother Derek is a two-time stakes winner around two turns. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

:: a pat on my back :: Thank you very much http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

MSNBC 1/14/06 - Stevie Wonderboy upset in San Rafael Stakes (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10854385/)

Again, Stevie is nice, but lets use some logic when anointing a hero before he wins legit.

Results -

1 - Brother Derek
2 - Stevie Wonderboy
3 - Wanna Runner
4 - Woody Be Quick

scratched, M. J. Pkay and Sailors Sunset

Glimmerglass
Jan. 16, 2006, 01:46 PM
Henny Hughes returns to action!

Brisnet 1/16/06 - "Henny Hughes headlines early entries for Thursday's Dubai Carnival opener" (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=3312)

Contrary to previous reports, the impressive Saratoga Special S. (G2) and Tremont S. hero has not joined the Godolphin banner but rather is still running in the name of Sheikh Rashid bin Mohammed Al Maktoum. Moreover, his trainer is the accomplished South African Alec Laird, who has taken over headship of Millennium Stables in Dubai, formerly run by the now suspended Mazin Al Kurdi.

An aside ...

The Churchill Downs run Kentucky Derby Futures (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_coverage/derby_future_wager/) (#1) opens on Jan 26th and closes on Jan 29th is an interesting way to get in on the action. Even a Smarty Jones bet in the 3rd poll (which opens and ends in early April) yielded on a $2 win bet a fat $23.60 return.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 16, 2006, 07:45 PM
A bit of commentary by Mike "I Hate Lost In The Fog" Watchmaker at the Daily Racing Forum:

DRF - Mike Watchmaker - 1/16/06: "After San Rafael, Derby plot thickens" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/71578.html)


For those who believe Stevie Wonderboy has the stuff to become the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to win the Derby, and the first champion 2-year-old to win the Derby since Spectacular Bid - he is a mortal lock to receive that honor at the Eclipse Award dinner on Monday night in Beverly Hills - there are ample reasons to take Stevie Wonderboy's defeat Saturday with a grain of salt. For one, the San Rafael was Stevie Wonderboy's first start in nearly three months. He had only four published breezing workouts since he won the Juvenile, and this being only January, he was certainly not going to be sharpened to a razor's edge for this go-around.

Mentioning The Bid in the same breath (and mind you I know he wasn't trying to compare) as Stevie is always a bit dangerous IMHO http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

Spectacular Bid's record at the end of his 2-yr old year was 9 starts 7-1-0; of which it included two G1 wins (one was a track record), a G2 victory and a G3 victory. Plus his 2nd race start equaled the track record.

Stevie Wonderboy's record now is: 6 start 3-2-1 with one G1 win, one G2 win, a placing in a G2, and a show in G3.

It will be an interesting run up to Kentucky to be sure!

Glimmerglass
Jan. 18, 2006, 08:33 AM
Err .. nix that report of Henny Hughes racing this week.

Brisnet 1/18/06 - "Henny Hughes will skip Dubai Carnival opener" (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=3316)

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up HENNY HUGHES (Hennessy) will not make his sophomore debut in Thursday's Shadwell Farm Trophy S. at Nad al Sheba. The Darley-owned colt was among the preliminary entries to the about seven-furlong dirt event on the opening day of the Dubai Carnival, but he was pulled from Tuesday's final declarations.

and ...

DRF Santa Anita notes 1/18/06 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/71588.html)


Round two will be in Santa Catalina

Brother Derek and Stevie Wonderboy are likely to have at least one rematch in coming months.

Their trainers said earlier this week that the colts will be pointed for the $200,000 Santa Catalina Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 4, a key prep for the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 8.

In the San Rafael Stakes over a mile, Brother Derek led throughout, winning by 1 1/2 lengths over Stevie Wonderboy. The San Rafael was Stevie Wonderboy's first start since he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Belmont Park in October and his first start around two turns. Owned by Merv Griffin, Stevie Wonderboy is expected to be named the champion 2-year-old male of 2005 when Eclipse Awards are announced on Monday.

The ease with which Brother Derek won surprised trainer Dan Hendricks.

"I thought he'd be tested a little more than that," he said.

Before the race, Hendricks hinted that Brother Derek had been overlooked among the nation's top 3-year-old prospects. The colt was not among the three finalists for that division's Eclipse Award, a list that included First Samurai and Henny Hughes.

After the San Rafael, Hendricks downplayed the issue.

"I can't take anything away from the other three," he said. "The other two won prestigious races in New York. I was wondering why we haven't gotten more respect, but they had the right three horses.

"You can't take anything away from Stevie," he said. "Everyone wondered how Stevie would fare in his first race back, and it made them take a good look at my horse and realize what a solid horse he is. We knocked off number one. Where do you go from here?"

Hendricks said that Brother Derek will have a 10-day break, until early next week, before he returns to racetrack training. "I may pull his shoes off and train him barefoot for a couple of weeks," he said.

The San Rafael was Brother Derek's third graded stakes win around two turns in California. Owned by Cecil Peacock, Brother Derek won the Grade 2 Norfolk Stakes in October and the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity in December. In his only loss since the summer, Brother Derek was fourth behind Stevie Wonderboy in the BC Juvenile. "That was a one-turn race and a totally different race. I knew he'd be able to do this," Hendricks said.

The absence of another speed horse in the field of four gave Brother Derek an uncontested lead and doomed Stevie Wonderboy's chances of winning, trainer Doug O'Neill said.

"Speed kills," O'Neill said. "He was tired after the race, which we didn't see after his other races. He definitely got something out of that. We're on for the Santa Catalina, but one thing Merv brought up is that if I see something appealing out of town to think of that as well."

O'Neill later said that was unlikely. "I'm sure we won't" travel, he said.

lizathenag
Jan. 18, 2006, 09:33 AM
"I may pull his shoes off and train him barefoot for a couple of weeks," he said.
is he serious?> I couldn't pull my TBs shoes and expect him to work right away. at least I don't think so. It wouldn't occur to me to try.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 18, 2006, 07:06 PM
liza - didn't going barefoot work for one of the Olympic runners? http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif I think a comment like that regarding Brother Derek is just part of the trainer's pagebook of playing head games with competitors in the press.

Next up is Bob and John a very promising top 10 Derby-hopeful horse trained by Bob Baffert. He races this Friday in an allowance race (1 1/16 mi) at Santa Anita (http://www.drf.com/news/article/71619.html) against a smaller field of horses who are, if their last Beyer figs are an indication, likely to be outclassed by Bob and John.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 20, 2006, 07:52 AM
From the Dallas Fort-Worth Star Telegram 1/20/06 - Gary West's Top 10 (http://www.dfw.com/mld/startelegram/sports/horse_racing/13670042.htm)


Star-Telegram staff writer Gary West's top 10 candidates for the 2006 Triple Crown as of 1/20/06

1. Bluegrass Cat: Recently worked 5 furlongs preparing for his return next month.

2. Private Vow: In Florida aiming to return to competition in early March.

3. Your Tent Or Mine: Given a break after finishing second in the Hollywood Futurity.

4. Stevie Wonderboy: His runner-up finish in the San Rafael didn't diminish his standing.

5. First Samurai: Worked 6 furlongs last weekend preparing for the Hutcheson Stakes on Feb. 4.

6. Barbaro: Unbeaten on turf and will make his dirt debut Feb. 4 in the Holy Bull Stakes.

7. Brother Derek: Enjoyed a perfect trip while defeating Stevie Wonderboy in the San Rafael.

8. Lawyer Ron: Dominant in the Risen Star, aimed at Oaklawn's Southwest Stakes on Feb. 20.

9. Achilles of Troy: Will stay in New York for now, aiming at the Whirlaway Stakes on Feb. 11.

10. Bob And John: Can justify his connections' high opinion of him in today's sixth at Santa Anita.

"Bob and John" racing at Santa Anita in the allowance race will face Twising Road and it might not be a slam dunk win. Twisting Road, a $300,000 yearling by Giant's Causeway, won for the first time with the addition of blinkers in his most recent outing. His trainer, Eoin Harty, a former Baffert assistant, said the long-striding colt has enormous potential. PVal will be in the irons with Twisting Road http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Linny
Jan. 20, 2006, 08:57 AM
Well Armed looked very good winning a conditions race (like an allowance) in Dubai yesterday. He's a handsome son of Tiznow who spend most of his career on grass in Europe. His prior start was a corking win on the all weather track at Lingfield (England) at (get this) 1 1/4 miles. He's trained by Clive Brittain who sent Bold Arrangement to the US to finish on the board in the Derby a few years back.
A friend of mine has hands on experience with Well Armed and is VERY high on him. The UAE Guineas is next.

How ironic it would be if a colt came from Dubai to win the Derby and it wasn't a Godolphin horse. Several British bookmakers have him at about 80-1 to win the Kentucky Derby.

Also, as for the mention of Spectacular Bid, it's inevitable. He was the last 2yo champ to win the Derby. The mention is not nessesarily a comparison. Believe me, I knew Spectacular Bid. Spectacular Bid was my friend. Stevie Wonderboy is no Spectacular Bid.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 20, 2006, 11:26 AM
Linny good point with Well Armed as he looks impressive having defeated yesterday a slightly older group of horses and have already successful run 1 1/4 mi distance. At 80-to-1 that is a lot of potential return http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Related article: Blood-Horse 1/19/06 - "WinStar Colt Wins in Dubai; Aimed at Kentucky Derby" (http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31795)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 20, 2006, 02:08 PM
Originally posted by Linny:
Several British bookmakers have him at about 80-1 to win the Kentucky Derby.

Looks like those long odds have dried up from the bookmakers.


"We'll win the UAE Guineas, the UAE Derby and the Kentucky Derby," said [Trainer Clive Brittain]. "I've never been a man to mince my words.

The Sporting Life (UK) cited that Coral was offering 80-1 that Brittain's prophecy is fulfilled in the 'Run for the Roses' in this article last night. (http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/06/01/20/RACING_Dubai.html)

Accordingly Coral Eurobet quoted odds (http://www.coral.co.uk/sb.go?page=grouppage&groupid=114296&lang=20&sid=20&ms=MS) dropped to 33/1 today on Well Armed http://chronicleforums.com/images/custom_smilies/winkgrin.gif

Linny
Jan. 20, 2006, 07:16 PM
Here he is. Well Armed (http://www.dubairacingclub.com/common/images/media/gallery/lo/680.jpg)

A friend of mine has hands on experience with this colt and likes him alot. In fact, he called the US from Dubai (on a cell phone) to place a bet on Well Armed.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 22, 2006, 01:35 PM
The Associated Press has released their Top 10 List as of today (1/21/06) ...


AP Top 10 picks for the Derby (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10949835/)
The top-10 picks include:

First Samurai (Frank Brothers, trainer; no rider): Season debut set for Hutcheson at Gulfstream on Feb. 4, went 4-for-4 before finishing third in BC Juvenile.

Stevie Wonderboy (Doug O’Neill, Garrett Gomez): BC Juvenile winner’s star still shines despite San Rafael loss in 3-year-old debut, set to win Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male with three wins in five starts. Owned by hotel and TV magnate Merv Griffin.

Brother Derek (Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis): San Rafael win over Stevie Wonderboy boosts stock in big way. Won three of five last year, including Norfolk and Hollywood Futurity.

Bluegrass Cat (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Won Remsen at Aqueduct on Nov. 26, colt’s third straight win, one of many Pletcher Derby hopefuls.

Bob and John (Bob Baffert, Victor Espinoza); Bay colt owned by Houston Texans honcho Bob McNair; third in Hollywood Futurity, his 3-year-old debut was Friday at Santa Anita.

Private Vow (Steve Asmussen, Shaun Bridgmohan): Won Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 26 for fourth win in last five starts, lost rein early in BC Juvenile and finished 14th — a throwout race.

Superfly (Nick Zito, Eibar Coa): Ran fifth in the BC Juvenile, finished on the board in first four starts, including win in Whirling Ash at Delaware Park on Sept. 17.

Lawyer Ron (Bob Holthus, John McKee): Won third straight with 8¼-length win in Risen Star at Louisiana Downs. Was 1-for-8 before winning steak. Next race could be Southwest at Oaklawn on Feb. 20.

Saint Augustus (Pletcher, Robby Albarado): Fifth in Risen Star on Jan. 14 after winning What a Pleasure Stakes at Calder.

Achilles of Troy (Jennifer Pedersen, Alan Garcia): Won Count Fleet by 14 lengths at Aqueduct on Jan. 7, worked five furlongs in 1:01.45 at Big A on Thursday. Next race likely to be Whirlaway on Feb. 11.

Keep an eye on: A.P. Warrior, Fabled, Itsallaboutthechase, Menacing, Wanna Runner.

What about Henny Hughes or Barbaro?

Glimmerglass
Jan. 23, 2006, 05:39 AM
The NY Post cites a top 10 but doesn't actually list it on their on-line website. In the article, 1/23/06 - Ed Fountaine/NY Post - "Private Vow Sinks" to 10th (http://www.nypost.com/sports/60876.htm), the horse Latent Heat (trained by Bobby Frankel with PVal up) breaks the top 10 since his maiden on Dec 26th.

WhiteCamry
Jan. 23, 2006, 10:09 AM
Originally posted by Glimmerglass:

Interestingly there is a horse, George Washington - I wonder, how did that get by the Jockey Club when the purported name of the slave mistress of President Thomas Jefferson was nixed? http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

FWIW, he's Irish-bred.

Linny
Jan. 23, 2006, 10:18 AM
Henny Hughes has been absorbed into the enormous maw of the Godolphin oeration with plans to stay in their pre-Derby program in Dubai. he's also bred to sprint. IMO, his breeding says "grass mile" to me. I'd prep him for the 2000 Guineas.

Barbaro looks like a nice one but have never raced on dirt.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 23, 2006, 11:12 AM
re: George Washington


Originally posted by WhiteCamry:
FWIW, he's Irish-bred.


Originally posted by Drumbiggle:
George Washington is a Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien horse, so he would have been registered with Weatherbys and not the JC.

My original question related to this horse and the JC - the Vegas odds sheet failed to identify the horse properly as "IRE" which would've nixed my question http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

George Washington (IRE) (http://www.pedigreepost.com/stakeswinners/G/GEORGE%20WASHINGTON.html)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 26, 2006, 08:42 AM
Some other lists - with interesting new entries:

Albany NY OTB - Jeanne Wood - 1/25/06 (http://www.capitalotb.com/?action=newsdetail&mode=68cd82a3-53a1-4546-b063-aaaeb787845f&type=1)


1 Stevie Wonderboy
2 First Samurai
3 Brother Derek
4 Barbican
5 Lawyer Ron
6 Rehoboth
7 Doctor Decherd
8 Music School
9 Barbaro
10 Hesanoldsalt

HRTV's Jon White as of 1/26/06 (http://www.hrtv.com/jwarchive.aspx?view=271&month=01&year=2006)


(1) Brother Derek
(2) Stevie Wonderboy
(3) First Samurai
(4) Bluegrass Cat
(5) Lawyer Ron
(6) Achilles of Troy
(7) Barbaro
(8) Private Vow
(9) Latent Heat
(10) Tatsuji

Linny
Jan. 26, 2006, 08:56 AM
A colt named Really Indian broke his maiden at SA on Wed. he's trained by Neil Drysdale and sired by A P Indy. He could be a nice one, he's a huge striding chestnut.
He may make my list down the road.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 31, 2006, 10:12 AM
The Courier-Journal's Derby Panel picks as of 1/30/06 (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060129/SPORTS08/301290008/1002)

Note with Rick Cushing:

1. Well Armed 2. Private Vow 3. Stevie Wonderboy 4. Barbican 5. Dr. Pleasure 6. My Golden Song 7. Sunriver 8. Your Tent or Mine 9. Hesanoldsalt 10. Bob and John

And John Asher, Churchill Downs:

John Asher, Churchill Downs 1. First Samurai 2. Stevie Wonderboy 3. Private Vow 4. Lawyer Ron 5. Bluegrass Cat 6. Brother Derek 7. Barbaro 8. A.P. Warrior 9. Hesanoldsalt 10. Latent Heat

And Steve Haskins, Blood-Horse:

Steve Haskin, Blood-Horse 1. Stevie Wonderboy 2. Private Vow 3. Brother Derek 4. First Samurai 5. Your Tent or Mine 6. Bob and John 7. Bluegrass Cat 8. Hesanoldsalt 9. Sunriver 10. My Golden Song

Boston Globe 1/28/06 - picks by Mark Blaudschun (http://www.boston.com/sports/other_sports/horse_racing/articles/2006/01/28/on_derby_track/)

#5 Hesanoldsalt - Nick Zito-trained colt showed he has the taste for distance, winning at 1 1/8 miles in an allowance race earlier this month at Gulfstream.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 1, 2006, 07:30 AM
Another mention of MM's contender - Barbaro - ESPN/Finley 1/31/06 - "IS Barbaro a horse for the course?" (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=2313355)



He won't have to wait long for his answer. One of the most intriguing Kentucky Derby contenders to come around in a long time, Barbaro will make his dirt debut Saturday in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. He could dominate his competition. He could run abysmally. No one really knows.

"He works well on the dirt," Matz said. "I hope he'll run that way."

- snip -

"They call it aging," he said. "I didn't want to get stuck standing in the middle of a show ring teaching lessons the rest of my life."

We are all glad he stayed with horses and moved to racing http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Previously on Barbaro ...


Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
Could trainer Michael Matz have a Derby contender under his control? Maybe. While Barbaro is a turf horse thus far he could switch over ...

Blood-Horse 1/1/06 "Barbaro Stays Hot in Tropical Park Derby" (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31557)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 4, 2006, 07:44 AM
Some great action today (Sat) with Derby-aimed horses, including among others:

First Samurai in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2) against a decent field including Catcominatcha who I will take for the upset http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif Samurai will have a new jock (Prado) now that Jerry is retired. They will go off as the 6-5 favorites but Catominatcha at 12-1 also has a graded stakes (a G3 in November) win to his name.

As well as the much cited Barbaro in the $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and his first start on dirt. This looks to be the toughest race based upon the quality of the field as he's joined by Itsaboutthechase, Flashy Bull and Doctor Decherd all have been top 20 mentions.

On the West Coast Bob and John will be in the 1 1/8-mile Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

Arcadien
Feb. 4, 2006, 10:01 AM
Any one see these races on tv anywhere? I can't find it listed on my cable, help!

Maybe they will show after the fact tomorrow...?

Arcadien

Glimmerglass
Feb. 4, 2006, 07:33 PM
Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
First Samurai in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2) against a decent field including Catcominatcha who I will take for the upset http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Well I knew there would be an upset (sorry not a fan of Samurai - overrated IMHO) but just called the wrong slayer http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Barbaro looked excellent as did Bob and John in their respective wins!

Glimmerglass
Feb. 6, 2006, 09:10 AM
The latest Top 10 poll from the Courier-Journal in Louisville, KY after this weekend's action:


Courier-Journal - 02-05-06 - "Original Derby Poll" (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060205/SPORTS08/302050009/1037)
As of Feb 5, 2006

This Week's Rank - Horse - Last Week's Rank
1. Stevie Wonderboy 1
2. Barbaro 9
3. Private Vow 4
4. Bluegrass Cat 2
5. Brother Derek 5
6. Your Tent Or Mine 6
7. Bob and John [not top 10]
8. First Samurai 3
9. Lawyer Ron 7
10. Keyed Entry [not top 10]

Others (in order of votes received): Latent Heat, Barbican, Cause to Believe, Achilles of Troy, Music School, Great Point, Well Armed, Corinthian, Point Determined, Henny Hughes, Hesanoldsalt, Sorceror's Stone, One Union, Dr. Pleasure, My Golden Song, A.P. Warrior, On Board Again, Steppenwolfer, High Cotton, Super Fly, Sweetnorthernsaint, Flanders Fields, Itsallaboutthechase, Flashy Bull, Jolted & Jostled, Blazing Rate, Da Stoops, Sunriver, Tatsuji, Doctor Decherd, Half Ours.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 6, 2006, 02:46 PM
<STRIKE>1. Stevie Wonderboy 1</STRIKE>

That is a tough loss (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2321348) to those folks who jumped into the early betting pools thinking Merv had another homerun like his "Wheel of Fortune" or "Jeopardy" shows.

Said Griffin: "He's out of the Derby. It's the saddest thing in my life."

Additionally the news doesn't look great - although only a bit dim - for one of my favorites, Henny Hughes:

Dubai Racing Club blog - Feb 6 "Henny Hughes to miss UAE 2000 Guineas" (http://carnivalblog.dubairacingclub.com/2006/02/06/henny-hughes-to-miss-uae-2000-guineas/#more-155)

Excerpt:

“We’ve been asked to go for a mile [race] because he hasn’t really proved himself beyond that,” Laird said. “But we’ve got a chance of making the Derby. We’re hopeful his class will prevail; what he may lack in stamina he can make up for in class.”

Laird also suggested that Henny Hughes might be tested in a trial race under the lights at Nad al Sheba to boost the colt’s fitness and to give him the experience of running at night under conditions similar to what he would have to face in the Derby, which is the final jewel of the UAE Triple Crown.

He also did not rule out a start in the second race in the triple series, the US$150,000 Al Bastakiya, also over 1,800 meters, on March 2.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 9, 2006, 08:42 AM
Originally posted by Arcadien:
Any one see these races on tv anywhere? I can't find it listed on my cable, help!

Having TVG and HRTV (see schedules) (http://www.drf.com/row/tv_sched.html) generally assures you that you'll have access to just about any race here in the States. Lacking in that (like most racing fans) you will be in luck coming up ...

BloodHorse - "Eight Derby Prep Races On ABC, ESPN" (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32121)

basic cable tv aired prep-races (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/tv.asp)


2006 CITGO RACING TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Mar 18 on ESPN @ 6-7:30 pm EST
- San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) 3YO
Santa Anita

- Rebel Stakes (gr. III) 3YO
Oaklawn Park

- Gotham Stakes (gr. II) 3YO
Aqueduct

- Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) 3YO
Tampa Bay Downs

Mar 25 on ABC @ 3-4:30 pm EST
- UAE Derby (gr. II) 3YO
Nad Al Sheba

- Dubai World Cup (gr. I) Classic
Nad Al Sheba

Mar 25 on ESPN2 @ 5-6:00 pm EST
- Lane's End Stakes (gr. II) 3YO
Turfway Park

- Rushaway Stakes 3YO
Turfway Park

Apr 1 on ESPN @ 5-6:00 pm EST
- WinStar Derby 3YO
Sunland Park

- WinStar Oaks 3YO fillies
Sunland Park

Apr 8 on ABC @ 4-5:00 pm EST
- Wood Memorial (gr. I) 3YO
Aqueduct

- Illinois Derby (gr. II) 3YO
Hawthorne

- Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III) 3YO/Mile
Aqueduct

- Carter H. (gr. I)

Apr 15 on ABC @ 5-6:00 pm EST
- Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) 3YO
Keeneland

- Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) 3YO
Oaklawn Park

Apr 22 on ESPN2 @ 6-7:00 pm EST
- Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. II) 3YO
Keeneland

- Federico Tesio Stakes 3YO
Pimlico

Apr 29 on ESPN2 @ 6-7:00 pm EST
"Triple Crown Special"

Glimmerglass
Feb. 9, 2006, 08:53 AM
One of the big tests is this weekend: The Whirlaway (Aqueduct) won last year by Sort It Out in an upset.

An expected change with Achilles of Troy and his rider. See CBS Sportsline 2/6/06 - "Achilles of Troy barnmate also an ace" (http://horseracing.sportsline.com/cbs/headlines/showarticle.aspx?articleId=6468)


Meanwhile, Achilles of Troy will definitely run in the Whirlaway, most likely with Dominguez in the irons. Paragallo believes he needs a veteran rider aboard Achilles of Troy, which is why he said he will "probably" replace Alan Garcia, who has been aboard for all five starts.

"Alan's a great young rider, he's just nervous," Paragallo said. "In these races you need somebody with ice water in their veins; Dominguez has ice water in his veins."

Looks like it has been confirmed: DRF 2/9/06 - "Dominguez new rider aboard Achilles of Troy" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/72073.html)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 10, 2006, 09:05 AM
Originally posted by lizathenag:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">"I may pull his shoes off and train him barefoot for a couple of weeks," he said.
is he serious?> I couldn't pull my TBs shoes and expect him to work right away. at least I don't think so. It wouldn't occur to me to try. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Liza, I stand corrected http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_eek.gif

From the Associated Press 2/9/06 - "Derby prospects in action this weekend" (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/11261715/)


Notes: San Rafael winner Brother Derek galloped 1½ miles without shoes for trainer Dan Hendricks. “He trains without shoes and he’s worn glue-on shoes since Del Mar to allow his feet to air out and expand naturally,” the trainer said. The colt’s next start will be in the Santa Catalina on March 4.

Also from CBS Cportsline 2/7/06 - "Brother Derek the target now" (http://horseracing.sportsline.com/cbs/headlines/showarticle.aspx?articleId=6498)


Since last summer, it has been standard practice for Brother Derek to train without shoes.

For those folks in the know - how typical is this practice?

Glimmerglass
Feb. 11, 2006, 05:23 PM
Worth taking a look at is the race replays from today for the $65,000 Whirlaway Stakes from at the big A and $75,000 Turf Paradise Derby at Arizona, where I'll be next weekend http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

In the Whirlaway, Achilles of Troy looked very impressive and pretty much was in-hand coasting along to the finish under Ramone. His stock for the Derby just rose up a few notches.

At Turf Paradise, Bob Baffert thought after the wicked impressive thrashing by Sky Diving at Bay Meadows late January that he'd do the same today. A lovely horse but with going 3-wide for most of the race, he never was able to conserve energy and doomed (but gamely fought hard) when closer Keagan came from downtown.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2006, 09:40 PM
Looks like Michael Matz now has all of the bullseye's on his swift turf/dirt star http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

The latest Louisville Courier-Journal Derby Poll:


Derby Poll as of 02-12-06 (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060212/SPORTS08/302120015/1037)
Rank - Horse - Rank Last Week
1. Barbaro 2
2. Private Vow 3
3. Brother Derek 5
4. Bluegrass Cat 4
5. First Samurai 8
6. Bob and John 7
7. Lawyer Ron 9
8. Your Tent Or Mine 6
9. Achilles of Troy [N/R]
10. Keyed Entry 10

Others (in order of votes received): Latent Heat, Cause to Believe, Barbican, Music School, Great Point, Corinthian, Hesanoldsalt, Point Determined, High Cotton, My Golden Song, Henny Hughes, Steppenwolfer, Dr. Pleasure, A.P. Warrior, Flashy Bull, Sweetnorthernsaint, Jazil, On Board Again, Scanlon's Song, Flanders Fields, Blazing Rate, Tatsuji, Jostled and Jolted, Itsallaboutthechase, Go Bucky Go, Da Stoops, Superfly, Dr. Decherd, Half Ours, Strong Contender, Laptop Computer, Noonmark, Wanna Runner, Well Armed.

An interesting aside on First Samurai. Folks have wondered why Jerry Bailey ended his career before one-final chance to win the Derby (again) especially when he had the seat on First Samurai.

His reply from the BloodHorse on-line chat last week (http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/JB020806.asp): quote "First Samurai's first race of the year was a good one; however, I am not convinced that he will relish the distances as they get over a mile and an eighth."

summerly
Feb. 13, 2006, 09:21 AM
One more time GO PRIVATE VOW http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif
Watch for him at Oaklawn in the Rebel....

Glimmerglass
Feb. 16, 2006, 10:06 AM
Another top list - Blood-Horse Feb 14, 2006 (by Steve Haskin) (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/DerbyDozen.asp)

note because this link page is updated the list below will likely change if you click on it next week


1 - Private Vow: comment "Having trouble finding a horse I'm comfortable with as No. 1, so am going strictly on the belief he's the most talented 10-furlong prospect. Not crazy about having just two planned starts in 2006 before the Derby."

2 - First Samurai
3 - Brother Derek
4 - Barbaro
5 - Bob & John
6 - Bluegrass Cat
7 - Cause to Believe
8 - Lawyer Ron
9 - Achilles of Troy

10 - Great Point (Nick Zito trained) comment: "Throwing out his two bad races and looking at the Holy Bull as his coming-out party. His debut was so impressive it's more likely he's a good horse who is starting to get his act together. Just needs to be closer to the pace."

11 - My Golden Song
12 - Flashy Bull

Additionally:

DRF 2/16/05 - "Achilles of Troy will now stay put" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/72202.html)


Achilles of Troy, convincing winner of the Count Fleet and Whirlaway stakes, will not ship to Florida as originally planned but instead will stay in New York and be pointed to the Grade 3, $200,000 Gotham here on March 18. After that, he would presumably target the Wood Memorial, run on Aqueduct's main track on April 8.

WhiteCamry
Feb. 17, 2006, 10:09 AM
Originally posted by Glimmerglass:

Additionally:

DRF 2/16/05 - "Achilles of Troy will now stay put" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/72202.html)

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Achilles of Troy, convincing winner of the Count Fleet and Whirlaway stakes, will not ship to Florida as originally planned but instead will stay in New York and be pointed to the Grade 3, $200,000 Gotham here on March 18. After that, he would presumably target the Wood Memorial, run on Aqueduct's main track on April 8. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I hope they don't rest him too long.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 20, 2006, 08:22 PM
Louisville Courier-Journal -Derby Poll for 2/19/06:


Courier-Journal 2/19/06 - "The original Derby poll " (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060219/SPORTS08/302190010/1037)

This week rank HORSE (last week rank)

1. Barbaro (1)
2. Bluegrass Cat (4)
3. Private Vow (2)
4. Brother Derek (3)
5. Lawyer Ron (7)
6. First Samurai (5)
7. Bob and John (6)
8. Keyed Entry (10)
9. Achilles of Troy (9)
10. Cause to Believe [NR]

Others (in order of votes received): Your Tent or Mine, Great Point, Latent Heat, Point Determined, Music School, Corinthian, Barbican, Steppenwolfer, High Cotton, My Golden Song, Flashy Bull, Superfly, Too Much Bling, Henny Hughes, Dr. Pleasure, Hesanoldsalt, Jazil, Sweetnorthernsaint, Private School, On Board Again, Well Armed, Scanlon's Song, Flanders Fields, Half Ours, Really Indian, Blazing Rate, Go Bucky Go, Folklore, Wanna Runner, Deputy Glitters, Strong Contender, Itsallboutthechase, Well Said, Noonmark.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 23, 2006, 08:09 AM
The accidental death of James T Hines, Jr (on Feb 21st) (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32287) - owner of Lawyer Ron - is not expected to derail the horse's progression towards the Kentucky Derby. Attorney Ron Bamberger (the man for whom the horse is named) will be overseeing the estate.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 23, 2006, 08:53 AM
Getting some Derby buzz, despite only two starts and one being way back in August at Arlington Park (IL) is Strong Contender, who just knocked off High Cotton a horse cited as being a Derby candidate and 9 others!

Blood-Horse 2/22/06 - "Strong Contender Rumbles in Gulf Allowance" (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32297)

Courier-Journal 2/23/06 - "Strong Contender romps in Florida" (http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/sports/other_sports/13939278.htm)

Sun Sentinal 2/23/06 - "Strong Contender impressive winner in 3-year-old debut" (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/sfl-gulf23feb23,0,1072615.story?coll=sfla-sports-headlines)

"From the folks who brought you 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, here comes Strong Contender ..."

Glimmerglass
Feb. 25, 2006, 04:26 PM
An impressive, but very narrow win (1/2 length at most) today by Lawyer Ron in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn over a good field - including an equally impressive challenge by Steppenwolfer. I expected more from Music School but he took a more distant 4th.

I'm sure the late James T. Hines, Jr. was looking down with a smile on his Lawyer's win.

WhiteCamry
Feb. 26, 2006, 08:48 AM
Originally posted by Glimmerglass:
An impressive, but very narrow win (1/2 length at most) today by Lawyer Ron in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn over a good field - including an equally impressive challenge by Steppenwolfer. I expected more from Music School but he took a more distant 4th.

I'm sure the late James T. Hines, Jr. was looking down with a smile on his Lawyer's win.

I'm skeptical. Even if LR led the whole way, 1:40 for a mile is a slow pace. And Steppenwolfer going from 9th off the start to 5th at the top of the stretch to 2nd by a hip at the wire leaves me http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_confused.gif.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 26, 2006, 02:43 PM
WhiteCamry, the track was cited as being dull which accounts for some of the lackluster speed. Heck considering they had to run this a week later - as the track was frozen and not race worthy before - we can see why.

NW Arkansas News 2/26 - "Lawyer Ron given run for the money" (http://www.nwanews.com/adg/Sports/146961/print/)

excerpts


Lawyer Ron remained unbeaten in five starts on dirt, but the wire-to-wire Southwest triumph wasn’t anything like his previous three victories, accomplished by a combined 27 lengths.

...

an anxious Lawyer Ron had to be throttled down by McKee early in the 1-mile race, then received about 25 right-handed reminders from the jockey’s whip to hold late-running Steppenwolfer safe on the outside. “This was the first time I’ve ever seen him come back, and he was blowing a little bit,” trainer Bob Holthus said after his record fifth Southwest victory.

....

Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer are scheduled to meet again in the $ 300, 000 Grade III Rebel on March 18.

Plaza Suite
Feb. 26, 2006, 08:21 PM
I don't want to get too excited too soon but, my boyfriend just won the Borderland Derby at Sunland today! http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif


http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32342

Chanter
Feb. 26, 2006, 10:30 PM
Plaza Suite, here's to hoping for the best! http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Plaza Suite
Feb. 26, 2006, 10:37 PM
Thanks! He may not make it, but just the thought is pretty cool.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 27, 2006, 03:11 PM
Plaza Suite, that is pretty neat! I watched the replay and Doctor Dechard, who had been a promising Derby horse, has put in a few poor efforts as of late.

The Courier-Journal's Original Derby Poll for Feb 26th (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060226/SPORTS08/302260011/1037)



Ranking Horse (Last week rank)
1. Private Vow (3)
2. Barbaro (1)
3. Brother Derek (4)
4. Bluegrass Cat (2)
5. First Samurai (6)
6. Lawyer Ron (5)
7. Bob and John (6)
8. Achilles of Troy (9)
9. Your Tent Or Mine (N/R)
10. Keyed Entry (8)

Others (in order of votes received): Steppenwolfer, Cause To Believe, Latent Heat, Great Point, Corinthian, Point Determined, Barbican, Strong Contender, My Golden Song, Flashy Bull, Henny Hughes, Dr. Pleasure, A.P.Warrior, Sweetnorthernsaint, Hesanoldsalt, Jazil, On Board Again, Scanlon's Song, Itsallaboutthechase, High Cotton, Well Armed, Flanders Fields, Da Stoops, Blazing Rate, Superfly, Music School, Really Indian, Point of Impact, Go Bucky Go, Wanna Runner, Too Much Bling.

I must say that Courier-Journal's high opinion with Private Vow seems to me more than just a bit hopefull. While he put in a damn good drill time in training last week the horse hasn't even raced as a 3-yr old yet.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 1, 2006, 05:17 AM
Brother Derek will mark his 2nd start in 2006 with Saturday's Santa Catalina Challenge (G2) at Santa Anita. He looks exceptionally good right now, especially with a wicked 6-furlong workout last week at 1:12 1/5

I did enjoy his trainer's remarks with perspective - but just don't let BD hear them http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_smile.gif:


"I'd like a walkover, that would be fine with me," Hendricks said. "No matter who goes in there with me I'd like an easy race. We don't need a taxing race. We're not Secretariat or anything; we just hope to get through it clean without a taxing race."

First Samurai goes to Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream which will be his first 2-turn and 1 1/8th effort. With 9 other challengers (although none of whom has won a stakes race on dirt) I see this as being a good chance for an upset. Samurai will likely go in as the favorite but as Jerry Bailey said (in so many words) this horse might be tough to stretch out. Flashy Bull and Itsallaboutthechase will be in the field.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 4, 2006, 08:01 PM
Wonderful effort from the typically barefoot man, Brother Derek http://chronicleforums.com/groupee_common/emoticons/icon_wink.gif He showed in the $200k G2-Santa Catalina that he is the best contender for the Derby at present.

Next up for him is the Santa Anita Derby (G1) which he'll look damn hard to beat in.

As for First Samurai his win by virtue of a DQ (which was the correct call IMHO) did little to impress. I just don't seem him as being able to win the Kentucky Derby. Too many execuses, not enough demonstration he's going to be good (or great as will be required) at any thing like 1 1/4 mi.

Barely beating Flashy Bull, whom Barbaro easily dismissed isn't a good sign.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 5, 2006, 03:11 PM
The Associated Press Top 10 list after this weekends races with Samurai's "win" factored, etc

AP 3-5-06 "Brother Derek moves to No. 1 on Run for the Roses list" (http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/14025293.htm)

This week's top 10, with Derby future wager odds: (note, edited content)


1. Brother Derek w/Future Odds: 16-1
2. Bluegrass Cat w/Future Odds: 15-1
3. First Samurai w/Future odds: 7-1
4. Bob and John w/Future Odds: 31-1
5. Barbaro w/Future Odds: 19-1
6. Lawyer Ron w/Future Odds: 21-1
7. Keyed Entry w/Future Odds: 53-1
8. Corinthian w/Future Odds: 3-1 (mutuel field).
9. Private Vow w/Future Odds: 14-1
10. Flashy Bull w/Future Odds: 45-1

Glimmerglass
Mar. 8, 2006, 07:44 AM
Originally posted by Glimmerglass:

The Courier-Journal's Original Derby Poll for Feb 26th

Ranking Horse (Last week rank)
1. Private Vow (3)
2. Barbaro (1)
3. Brother Derek (4)
4. Bluegrass Cat (2)
5. First Samurai (6)
6. Lawyer Ron (5)
7. Bob and John (6)
8. Achilles of Troy (9)
<STRIKE><span class="ev_code_RED">9. Your Tent Or Mine (N/R)</span></STRIKE>
10. Keyed Entry

Blood-Horse 3/8/06 - "Your Tent Or Mine off Triple Crown trail" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=62586&subsec=2)

excerpt: "The son of Forest Camp, who has not raced since finishing second in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) on December 17, has been slowed by an abscess on his right front foot.

"It hasn't healed as fast we would have liked, so we'll probably give him a couple weeks rest," Drysdale said. "In other words, we're taking him off the Triple Crown trail." "

Glimmerglass
Mar. 10, 2006, 10:40 AM
From an article that loves Brother Derek - a horse that I think is currently the best Derby choice at present:

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2358395


Latent Heat, who finished third in the Santa Catalina, "bucked his shins a little bit" in the race and will not make the Kentucky Derby, trainer Bobby Frankel said Monday.

"We'll X-ray him in a few days to make sure there's no crack there," Frankel said. "I don't think there is. He's a little bit sore."

Glimmerglass
Mar. 14, 2006, 11:53 AM
Barclay Tagg looks to have another possible contender for the Derby with Showing Up. We'll see if that's true when he races in the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 8th. Showing Up did put in a track record effort (alebit a newer track at Gulfstream) for the mile 1:34.05 this past weekend in a very game effort fending off several challengers.

He has two wins in as many starts but no graded earnings so it is still early.

Look for the impressive Cause to Believe to do a Pollard's Vision and War Emblem thing by going to the Illinois Derby and being essentially off the radar and not overly worn out by Kentucky Derby time. The April 8th Illinois Derby (G2) wil easily vault his earnings - if he wins and no reason to think otherwise now - into Derby contention.

As for this weekend it will be great to finally see in 2006 and FIVE MONTHS after he last raced, Private Vow, run again. We'll see if he's all hype or not. I myself think the well tested, toughened up, and far more experienced Lawyer Ron could knock Private Vow's high pre-Derby ranking down the chart.

ESPN will air on Saturday 3/18 (6 – 7:30 pm EASTERN) four important races including

Lawyer Ron and Private Vow in the G3 Rebel Stakes
Achilles of Troy and Keyed Entry in the G2 Gotham Stakes
Bob and John vs. the impressive Point Determined in the G2 San Felipe Stakes
Bluegrass Cat in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby

Glimmerglass
Mar. 17, 2006, 11:32 AM
ESPN will air on Saturday 3/18 (6 – 7:30 pm EASTERN) four important races including

G3 Rebel Stakes
G2 Gotham Stakes
G2 San Felipe Stakes
G2 Tampa Bay Derby

All four races are exceptionally important to sort out the contenders from the pretenders, in the old cliche ;)

The Blood-Horse has a decent preview of the races and line-up:

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32617

I myself look to see Lawyer Ron knock off Private Vow in the Rebel. The hype may be justified on PV but you can't knock the battle testing Lawyer Ron has undergone.

Linny
Mar. 17, 2006, 03:49 PM
Anyone going to Aqueduct for the Gotham? I'll be there.

Flypony
Mar. 18, 2006, 10:32 PM
Lawyer Ron, today in the Rebel looks outstanding. Can't wait to see him and Brother D do battle!

Glimmerglass
Mar. 19, 2006, 09:49 PM
Well as expected the pretender(s) have dropped almost out of sight. The betting community had a terrible hangover after Saturday's mess ;)

Luckily I made out very well in the San Felipe and Rebel, but was womped in the Tampa and Gotham. Lawyer Ron was an easy call in advance but who they heck would've predicted Like Now in the Gotham?

Accounts suggest that Achilles of Troy was possibly injured in the Gotham and was by all accounts not feeling up to snuff on Friday let alone Saturday's race :(

The latest Louisville Courier Journal Derby poll:


Rank - Horse - Previous Top 10 Rank Last Week
1. Brother Derek (pv 1)
2. Lawyer Ron (pv 8)
3. A.P. Warrior (NR)
4. Corinthian (pv 5)
5. Barbaro (pv 4)
6. Point Determined (NR)
7. Bluegrass Cat (pv 3)
8. First Samurai (pv 5)
9. Cause to Believe (NR)
10. Bob and John (pv 7)

Others (in order of votes received): Keyed Entry, Strong Contender, Flashy Bull, Steppenwolfer, Private Vow, Deputy Glitters, Sacred Light, Red Raymond, Dr. Pleasure, Like Now, Sweetnorthernsaint, Sunriver, Your Tent or Mine, Racketeer, Laity, Barbican, Sharp Humor, My Golden Song, Ivan Denisovich, Achilles of Troy, Really Indian, Blazing Rate, Showing Up, High Cotton, Well Armed, Starspangled Gator.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 20, 2006, 11:31 AM
From the New York Times 3/19/06 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/19/sports/othersports/19racing.html


The future for Achilles of Troy, the Gotham favorite, is even more murky. After finishing fifth, he was taken off the racetrack in a van. His owner, Ernie Paragallo, said Achilles of Troy had a problem with his right front foot.

Paragallo said the problem surfaced Friday and he wanted to scratch Achilles of Troy but was talked out of it by his trainer, Frank Amonte Jr., and others. Amonte was hired a week earlier to replace Jennifer Pedersen.

"I'm not very happy with him," Paragallo said of Amonte. "I called him five times today to check on the horse, and every time he told me he was doing great."

:(

Glimmerglass
Mar. 22, 2006, 01:27 PM
The latest off-the-Derby Trail: Corinthian


Corinthian out of Triple Crown
By DAVID GRENING
Daily Racing Form 3/22/06 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/72971.html)

Corinthian, who was disqualified from first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, has suffered a minor fracture of his left hind ankle and will miss the entire Triple Crown series, his connections said Wednesday.

According to Dr. Stephen Carr, the racing manager for Corinthian's owners, Centennial Farms, Corinthian suffered a "very small hairline crack on the top of and the front of his long pastern bone in his left hind ankle."

Carr said he believes the injury occurred during an open gallop that Corinthian had Saturday over the Belmont Park training track. Corinthian, who spent the winter at the Palm Meadows training center in Boynton Beach, Fla., had just returned from there on Thursday.

Carr said the crack is so minor it took digital X-rays to confirm it.

"It's a common injury," said Carr. "It does not require surgery. It has a very good prognosis, and it only requires walking about 30 days for it to heal and for him to be able to return to training. He will obviously miss the Triple Crown races and therefore point for such races as the Dwyer, Jim Dandy, and Travers."

Carr said that Corinthian would remain in trainer Jimmy Jerkens's Belmont Park barn.

Corinthian had developed into a serious Kentucky Derby contender after he rallied smartly from off the pace to finish first in the Fountain of Youth last month at Gulfstream Park. He was disqualified to third, however, after he veered in on First Samurai, then veered out, carrying First Samurai and Flashy Bull out during the stretch run of the race.

Corinthian had been pointing to the Wood Memorial on April 8.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 22, 2006, 01:42 PM
As cited by Equidaily.com, but of course can't be totally validated as "him", the new trainer of Achillies of Troy - Ernie Paragallo - reportedly made this heated posting regarding speculation about the horse before and after the poor performance in the Gotham:

Thoro-graph BB, posting by "JKev" on March 20, 2006 (http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,26590,26639#msg-26639)

excerpt:


First off whoever said Achilles of Troy was lame all week and everyone knew it is a blantent liar or a flat out moron. He was never lame at all, he worked on wed with Ramon and he said he went better than ever, he walked on thurs, on fri he jog and gallopped the exercise rider who has gotten on him every day since before he started his winning streak said he did not act the same he was not pulling at the bit, he never said he was off. I have no idea why this was but his left foot was warm but he seemed to jog fine for the trainer and the vet.

His blood was pulled this morning and the results are pending. He had digital x rays and scans done on both his front legs and he shows nothing even remotley wrong, he is very strong this morning and in fact is meaner than he has ever been. If someone seen him off this week I would like them to identify themseleves because they are liars.

The second point nowhere does it say that the horse had his head sideways when the gate opened causing him to break last and having to be rushed up into a traffic jam going into the first turn and having to be checked 3 times and then having to go 5 wide into very slow fractions. it looked like a carbon copy of the race he ran 4th behind trailing twelve except for being left at the post.

So it could be him or of course someone who just claims to be him ...

Glimmerglass
Mar. 22, 2006, 01:56 PM
An entry from across the pond has arrived for this Saturday's G2 $500k Lane's End Stakes (Turfway Park) : Silent Times from England although Irish-bred.

Already used to the polytrack surface (home track is Averham Park, a polytrack too) the physically large G2 winner already could be a strong contender for the graded Derby prep race ....

DRF 3/22/06 "First foreigner here for the Derby" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/72968.html)

Selected excerpts:


"This horse loves Polytrack," said O'Neill, who has been training on his own for five years after having served as an assistant under John Gosden. "I have no concerns about [fitness]. He's had three racecourse gallops," or strong, race-like workouts among company, including one last week over Polytrack at Wolverhampton Racecourse, "and he's pretty straight."

In the few days before the Lane's End, Silent Times will train over the five-furlong Polytrack course at Keeneland. "I'll have him jump out of the gate Thursday," said O'Neill. "That will be enough."

Silent Times, a dark bay colt who stands nearly 17 hands, brings impressive bloodlines and racing credentials to the Lane's End. He is by Danehill Dancer, a son of the late pre-eminent dual hemisphere sire Danehill, and his dam is Recoleta, a full sister to Grade 1 winner Offlee Wild (both being by Wild Again out of Alvear).

Silent Times, who will be ridden by Robby Albarado in the Lane's End, is a confirmed front-runner. As O'Neill told the Racing Post: "He has a very high cruising speed, and if he gets out in front, he is hard to peg back."

Glimmerglass
Mar. 22, 2006, 02:09 PM
I must say I've really like this horse a lot all along. He impressed me even when I watched him lose at Saratoga. Yet realistically with so much time lost, almost no 2006 prep race experience and the toll of shipping to Dubai with almost nothing to show for it, you have to wonder if the horse's talents aren't essentially wasted for life :(

TB Times 3/22/06 - "Derby hopeful Henny Hughes to return to McLaughlin's barn in U.S." (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=62801&subsec=2)


Kiaran McLaughlin, who lost Grade 2 winner Henny Hughes to trainer Saeed bin Suroor's Godolphin Racing stable in Dubai after his runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), expects to take the three-year-old son of Hennessy back to the United States with him when he returns following the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) card on Saturday.

"That's the plan now, but you know how things can change," McLaughlin said Wednesday morning. "Right now, we are expecting that he will be coming back with us, and he'll go to New York.

"I'm going to stay in Florida through the Florida Derby (G1) [on April 1 at Gulfstream Park], then go to New York, and he'll train toward the Kentucky Derby (G1) via the New York route."

Glimmerglass
Mar. 23, 2006, 02:51 PM
Now how often do you hear this type of honest comment regarding a Kentucky Derby hopeful from their own stable!

re: Discreet Cat


"It's way too early to even start talking about the Kentucky Derby," Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said Wednesday morning from the Al Quoz training center. "This horse is short on experience and long on hype. He's got tons of speed and it's highly questionable whether 1 1/8 miles is going to be a true distance for him. It may well be that he becomes a miler or a seven-furlong horse."

A decision on whether or not to ship Discreet Cat to Churchill Downs will be made after he faces a dozen challengers in the UAE Derby. - source: Blood-Horse 3/22/06 "Discreet Cat Hometown Hope in UAE Derby; Other Godolphin Runners Tune Up" (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32674)

By comparison, as Equidaily.com pointed out with another news bit, plenty of hubris here:

Team Valor Headline News March 21, 2006 (http://teamvalor.com/news/032106/)


Belmont Stakes beckons for new 3yo Team Valor purchase, Awesome Again colt will essay final jewel in Triple Crown, French-based prospect will run "off the plane" in final classic ....

Glimmerglass
Mar. 24, 2006, 01:07 PM
Strong Contender and his last effort is worth a look on Calracing.com. It's a shame that such a fast player gets cut out from a Derby prep race and it could reverberate into him not having enough graded money to go to the Kentucky Derby ...

NY Post 3/24 (http://www.nypost.com/sports/63548.htm)


COULDA BEEN A 'CONTENDER'

By JOHN DASILVA

March 24, 2006 -- The lightly raced and undefeated Strong Contender, rated ninth in Ed Fountaine's Derby Dozen and the probable favorite for tomorrow's Lane's End Stakes at Turfway, was excluded from the Lane's End when 12 other 3-year-olds with higher career earnings were entered for the race. The John Ward trainee, with only $36,000 in career earnings, was 13th on the earnings list for the race, which has a limit of 12 runners and no also eligibles.

Strong Contender will now make the approximately 20-hour van ride back to Gulfstream Park while Ward ponders his next start, which is probably the Illinois Derby on April 1 or the Wood Memorial on April 8. The Florida Derby at Gulfstream is not a major consideration for Strong Contender.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 27, 2006, 10:10 AM
I know that ESPN2 largely botched the airing of the $500,000 Lane's End Stakes (G2) at Turfway Park Saturday until it was quickly aired with little discussion before or after :(

Doesn't the NTRA pay for horse racing to be aired? So they pay for the slot then have to get ripped off as tennis goes an hour long and they adhere to womens division 2 baseketball being aired (give me a break) on time?

Anyhow ... With a City did a great job winning from nowhere and achieving the highlight of his life but I'm somewhat shocked the connections are saying Derby already for him. Uh, Derby? Yes they now have sufficient graded earnings but seriously can that horse finish in the top 10 in the Kentucky Derby? Shouldn't they do something like the Bluegrass Stakes to see if this is valid?

12 starts 4-0-2, including a claiming race in December and finishing deadlast in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes early this month.

What is disappointing - but of course this is racing - is that a horse like Strong Contender was cut out of being able to race as they only take 12 horses and it was based on cumulative earnings. Strong Contender was $2,650 shy.

Glimmerglass
Mar. 27, 2006, 12:25 PM
It doesn't appear too many polls are factoring in the impressive Dubai win of Discreet Cat although these "rankings" seemingly change as often as the weather in Chicago ;)

Baltimore Sun 3/27/06 - "Ky. Derby chase still in flux" (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horseracing/bal-sp.derby27mar27,0,1366207.story?coll=bal-sports-horse)


Triple Crown rankings [per the panel of sportswriters] for March 27, 2006

Horse, Trainer, Jockey, St-W-P-S, Last race, Next race

1. Brother Derek, Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis, 7-5-0-1, Santa Catalina (1st), Santa Anita Derby (4/8)
2. Lawyer Ron, Bob Holthus, John McKee, 13-6-1-3, Rebel (1st), Arkansas Derby (4/15)
3. First Samurai, Frank Brothers, Edgar Prado, 7-5-1-1, Fountain of Youth (pl. 1st), Blue Grass (4/15)
4. Barbaro, Michael Matz, Edgar Prado, 4-4-0-0, Holy Bull (1st), Florida Derby (4/1)
5. Bluegrass Cat, Todd Pletcher, John Velasquez, 6-4-1-0, Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), Blue Grass (4/15)
6. A.P. Warrior, John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani, 7-3-1-0, San Felipe (1st), Santa Anita Derby (4/8)
7. Point Determined, Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez, 5-2-2-1, San Felipe (2nd), Santa Anita Derby (4/8)
8. Strong Contender, John Ward Jr., Edgar Prado, 2-2-0-0, Allowance (GP) (1st), Wood Memorial (4/8)
9. Deputy Glitters, Thomas Albertrani, Jose Lezcano, 6-2-1-0, Tampa Bay Derby (1st), Wood Memorial (4/8)
10. Cause to Believe, Jerry Hollendorfer, Russell Baze, 9-6-3-0, California Derby (1st), Illinois Derby (4/8)

As to how First Samurai moves up is questionable ...

Glimmerglass
Mar. 27, 2006, 12:42 PM
An interesting bit from the UK paper The Independent March 27 "Cautious route to Kentucky may suit Discreet Cat" (http://sport.independent.co.uk/general/article353890.ece)

Excerpt:

Discreet Cat has as much charisma as any horse in the [Godolphin] stable since Dubai Millennium, but if he does stay 10 furlongs at the top level then it would be kindest to postpone his first trip to Churchill Downs to November, for the Breeders' Cup Classic. On the way he could pick off exhausted Triple Crown horses in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, and he could even start off in its second leg, the Preakness Stakes - over a shorter trip, just a fortnight after the Derby principals have slugged it out in Louisville.

But it is hard to see his owner favouring prudence and caution over adventure and ambition. As a true horseman, he will abide with the stable's dictum to see how Discreet Cat has taken his race before making any decisions. As a sportsman, however, he has probably made up his mind already.

Drvmb1ggl3
Mar. 27, 2006, 12:46 PM
It doesn't appear too many polls are factoring in the impressive Dubai win of Discreet Cat although these "rankings" seemingly change as often as the weather in Chicago ;)
.

Will Hill and several of the big British bookies have him at 5/1 j/fav with Brother Derek in the ante-post betting.
That's probably giving him a little too much credit though. No real value at the price, esp for a horse that's not even a confirmed runner yet!

Discreet Cat 5/1
Brother Derek 5/1
Lawyer Ron 7/1
First Samurai 10/1
A P Warrior 11/1
Barbaro 12/1
Point Determined 16/1
Bob And John 20/1
Strong Contender 25/1
Keyed Entry 25/1
Cause To Believe 25/1
Bluegrass Cat 25/1
Sunriver 33/1
Sharp Humor 33/1
Flashy Bull 33/1
Deputy Glitters 33/1
With A City 40/1
High Cotton 40/1

Glimmerglass
Mar. 27, 2006, 01:08 PM
With A City 40/1

If he does race in the Derby my guess is that you'll get odds the day-of more akin to last year's "Place" horse, Closing Argument (71-1).

I just don't see there being much need to lock in a longer odd offering like 40/1; despite the long shot win he just pulled off on Saturday of 48 to 1.

Drvmb1ggl3 I concur that at 5/1 on Discreet Cat is something that few would place a bet on this far out and with so much uncertainty ;)

Although paddypower.com (http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=show_type_by_main_market&category=RACING&ev_class_id=87&id=6663) has The Green Monkey already at odds of 33/1 to win the Kentucky Derby in 2007! wow, wow

Glimmerglass
Mar. 27, 2006, 04:34 PM
A rather well thought out bit of stable-to-betting-public comments:

Sportinglife.com 3/27/06 "GODOLPHIN ISSUE CAT WARNING" (http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/06/03/27/RACING_Cat.html)


Godolphin have warned punters to hold their bets on Discreet Cat in the Kentucky Derby.

The three-year-old powered to an impressive six-length win in the the UAE Derby at Nad Al Sheba last Saturday, prompting William Hill to make him their 5-1 joint favourite for the Kentucky event.

However, racing manager Simon Crisford is keen to underline the Forestry colt will not be rushed in order to make the Grade One contest.

He told the Racing Post: "Punters would be extremely wise to wait before backing Discreet Cat for the Kentucky Derby.

"We've already decided he won't run in the Blue Grass Stakes or any other American Classic trial and the early thoughts in our camp are that he'll either go for the Kentucky Derby without another run or the Preakness without another run.

"We're very much aware that he's not even three yet as he's a May 1 foal and he's very young and still immature.

"For the moment, we'll just monitor his training and then Sheikh Mohammed will make his decision."

Everyone should enjoy this bit of news, especially with the weather not exactly the best I've ever seen (it snowed!) regarding the Lane's End Stakes


Ontrack attendance at Turfway Park on Saturday was 23,114, the highest in the track's history. Turfway ran out of parking spaces by about the third race of the day. - source: Daily Racing Form

Glimmerglass
Mar. 27, 2006, 07:22 PM
While some may scoff at a claimer who looks to take on the big boys in this weekend's Florida Derby (G1) but a visual review of his past three races show he has guts and strong desire to win.

Charming Image is worth a look on the calracing.com replays for his recent efforts. He never rushes to the lead at the break but is always a very strong closer who rates just fine and will dig in like a hedgehog and fight to the finish.

One odd semi-recent occurence was on Feb 22 as "Charming Image was also a late scratch after stumbling and unseating jockey Edgar Prado in the post parade."

If he does go to the FL Derby I'd say he'd be a long shot worth a second look even against the likes of Barbaro.

BloodHorse 3/27 "Charming Image Under Consideration for Florida Derby" (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32756)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 29, 2006, 01:27 PM
From the DRF, the post positions for the Florida Derby

PP Horse Jockey, ML odds
1. Hesanoldsalt, E.Castro, 20-1
2. Flashy Bull, R.Bejarano, 4-1
3. Saint Augustus, C.DeCarlo, 12-1
4. Doc Cheney, J.Rose, 12-1
5. Sunriver, J.Velazquez, 6-1
6. Rehoboth, J.Castellano, 20-1
7. Sharp Humor, M.Guidry, 5-1
8. High Blues, C.Velasquez, 10-1
9. Charming Image, R.Maragh, 20-1
10. Barbaro, E.Prado, 8-5
11. Sam's Ace, F.Martinez, 20-1

To be aired on NBC Sports April 1st with Commentators: Gary Stevens, Tom Hammond and Donna Brothers; and racing analysts Bob Neumeier and Mike Battaglia.

(My prediction, look for Charming Image to finish in show or better)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 30, 2006, 12:10 PM
From today's Sun-Sentinel 3/30 "Pecoraro's Charming Image entered as claimer" (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/sfl-fladerby30mar30,0,5570567.story?coll=sfla-sports-headlines)


Hallandale Beach, FL· Trainer Anthony Pecoraro entered a $40,000 claimer Wednesday morning in the Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby.

In past years, this decision might have drawn a few laughs and some snide remarks. But this year it seems anything is possible in the weeks leading to the May 6 Kentucky Derby.

The winner of last week's $500,000 Lane's End Stakes, With a City, was a former $40,000 claimer from Calder Race Course. The Gotham Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby were won by colts who broke their maiden for claiming tags. And Lawyer Ron, one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, also ran as a maiden for a claiming tag.

So even after 11 colts were entered for Saturday's 11/8th-mile Derby, Pecoraro's Charming Image was given just as much of a shot for the cool million as Lael Stable's Barbaro, who was made the 8-5 favorite to head to Churchill Downs in five weeks as an undefeated contender.

When asked if he saw last weekend's Lane's End, a smile creased Pecoraro's face and he replied, "I sure did."

"I guess it's a question of class," Pecoraro added of Marc Wexler's Charming Image, who is undefeated in three starts since being claimed for $25,000 at Calder. "We know he had the heart and he hasn't done anything wrong."

And for the snide remark: Steve Haskin, Blood-horse "Haskin's Weekend Preview: Barbaro at the Gate" (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32797)

"Charming Image is in way over his head, but has won three in a row while moving up the claiming ladder."

Perhaps someone should pass along clippings from the $1 million Haskell Invitational not so long ago with former claimer 'My Snookie's Boy' putting the heat - and almost snagging the prize - from the then top 3yr old 'Lion Heart'. ;)

Glimmerglass
Mar. 30, 2006, 07:15 PM
Correction on the Florida Derby and where it will be aired - get this ... NBC/Universal is airing the race but not on NBC Sports. Instead it will be on the USA NETWORK - a first that I know of :)

So look for USA Network Saturday April 1 @ 5 pm EST (http://www.usanetwork.com/schedules/sched.php?switch=2&sd=3/1/2006) with the Florida Derby unless its an April Fools joke

Just make sure you can flip the channels fast as ESPN (not the Duce) (http://sports.espn.go.com/espntv/espnGuide) is to air also at 5 pm the WinStar Derby

The final entries for the $600k WinStar Derby are:
pp Horse
1. Sky Diving
2. Wait in Line
3. Keagan
4. Doctor Decherd
5. Wanna Runner
6. Welfare Cadillac
7. Blaze It
8. Might Be Hooked
9. Belligerence

Claudius
Apr. 1, 2006, 07:36 PM
For the racing gurus among you....did Barbaro look somewhat cumbersome coming off the last turn to you? He is a strong looking colt, but something made me feel a little uncomfortable there in the race...he was a little early with his lead change, was that what I saw?

Glimmerglass
Apr. 2, 2006, 10:07 PM
For the racing gurus among you....did Barbaro look somewhat cumbersome coming off the last turn to you?

As was cited during the telecast it was a case of a bit of a lug in with the final stretch but nothing too bad.

The AP Top 10 from April 2nd:

This week's top 10, with Derby future wager odds:

Source: Associated Press/Forbes April 2, 2006 (http://www.forbes.com/entrepreneurs/feeds/ap/2006/04/02/ap2640222.html)


1. Brother Derek (Dan Hendricks, trainer, Alex Solis, jockey): Still looks the best ... Continues to train strongly for final prep ... Next start: Santa Anita Derby (Saturday) ... Odds: 10-1.

2. Barbaro (Michael Matz, Edgar Prado): The countdown begins for unbeaten colt (5-for-5) ... Next start: Kentucky Derby (May 6) ... Odds: 15-1.

3. Lawyer Ron (Bob Holthus, John McKee): Rebel winner is 6-for-6 on dirt tracks ... Next start: Arkansas Derby (April 15) ... Odds: 17-1.

4. First Samurai (Frank Brothers, Rafel Bejarano): Fountain of Youth winner through DQ gets new rider, who replaces Prado ... Next start: Blue Grass (April 15) ... Derby odds: 16-1.

5. A.P. Warrior (John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani): San Felipe winner could give trainer a chance to win second straight Derby ... Next start: Santa Anita Derby ... Odds: 3-1 (mutuel field).

6. Bluegrass Cat (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Worked five furlongs in 59.00 Sunday at Palm Meadows, the fastest of 16 horses timed at the distance ... Next start: Blue Grass (April 15) ... Odds: 11-1.

7. Keyed Entry (Pletcher, Prado): Worked five furlongs in 1:01.86 Sunday at Belmont ... Runner-up in Gotham after winning first three starts ... Next start: Wood Memorial (Saturday) ... Odds: 21-1.

8. Point Determined (Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez): Put in top-notch workout last Monday, four furlongs in 46.80 at Santa Anita ... Seems to be improving each time he hits the track ... Next start: Santa Anita Derby ... Odds: 29-1.

9. Like Now (Kiaran McLaughlin, Fernando Jara): One of trainer's three Derby prospects ... Won Gotham at 36-1 odds for third straight win ... Next start: Wood Memorial ... Odds: 3-1 (mutuel field).

10. Cause to Believe (Jerry Hollendorfer, Russell Baze): California Derby winner starting to impress as final prep draws near ... Worked five furlongs in 1:01.60 Sunday at Golden Gate Fields ... Next start: Illinois Derby (Saturday) ... Odds: 32-1.

Keep an eye on: Bob and John, Deputy Glitters, Sharp Humor, Strong Contender, Sunriver.

Chanter
Apr. 2, 2006, 10:20 PM
Wadda ya saying here Glimmer, that the board has now found their Derby horse! ;)

Huh, what happened to the post I was responding too? *oh well, no big deal*

Glimmerglass
Apr. 2, 2006, 10:49 PM
Wadda ya saying here Glimmer, that the board has now found their Derby horse! ;)

I think a lot of folks here with MM being involved like Barbaro.

Despite the win Saturday with just two starts on dirt and only one on a fast dirt track there are still questions. The FL Derby field wasn't as strong as say the expected SA Derby or even the Wood.

I'm not knocking him whatsoever but there are reasons to be cautious ;)

The Louisville Courier Journal had this list of undefeated starters going into the KY Derby: "Undefeated starters in the Kentucky Derby and the results" (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060402/SPORTS08/604020479/1037)

Slim pickings with results and mix that with the much cited 5-week layout being untried. That is actually wrong: High Fly and Noble Causeway both had a 5-week gap. For all that rest they came in 10th and 14th.

He'll be a very solid Derby candidate for sure.

For the record as I mentioned him, Charming Image, the claimer, finished 8th out of 11 horses in the FL Derby. Not an embarassment as it was also within a tight bunch of finishers.

Claudius
Apr. 3, 2006, 04:44 PM
I think he is slated to run in the Wood Memorial....isn't he undefeated so far also? Not sure.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 3, 2006, 06:05 PM
I think he is slated to run in the Wood Memorial....isn't he undefeated so far also? Not sure.

Yep - Showing Up is aimed for the Wood but at this point there is so little room for error and having him jump up like that with the distance is going to be very tough and demanding IMHO. A very good colt given a bad trip would almost have no way to build up the needed graded stakes money to get into the Derby.

Thats how Rock Hard Ten was locked out - despite being better then most for his class.

Since Showing Up is owned by the same stable as Barbaro I'd hate for them to use him in any way such as they did with Spanish Chestnut last year. Although he does not seem to have that crazy horse sprinter look :) A fast but steady - no unrateable horse like say Yessirgeneralsir ;)

From the Blood-Horse for April 3rd:
At Gulfstream Park on Sunday morning, Barclay Tagg worked undefeated colt Showing Up five furlongs in 1:00 4/5. Showing Up is owned by Lael Stables, whose undefeated Barbaro won the Florida Derby (gr. I) in his fifth start Saturday.

"He didn't go quite as fast as he did last time," Tagg said, referring to a :58 2/5 work on March 26. "This is what we wanted."

Showing Up has only run twice, winning both a maiden special weight and an entry-level allowance by comfortable margins. The Wood will be Showing Up's first try around two turns after scoring at 6 ½ furlongs and one mile at Gulfstream.

As an aside, Lael Stables is owned by Roy and Gretchen Jackson. They owned George Washington and sold him as a yearling - fetching $2.05-million at the 2004 Tattersalls October yearling sale.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 3, 2006, 10:46 PM
Tonights DRF update has an interesting article on Showing Up and it says both trainer and owner are very upbeat on him. DRF 4/3/06 "Barbaro's owners excited by the prospect of a second Derby horse] ("http://www.drf.com/news/article/73303.html)


Tagg: "You've got to be a little excited about him ... I don't know if he'll go two turns or any of that stuff. He hasn't shown me he can't."

The colt didn't race at 2 because of a shin problem at Fair Hill. To his credit in his two starts he's put in an impressive Beyer Fig of 91 and 100, respectively!

Glimmerglass
Apr. 4, 2006, 02:19 PM
The field for this Saturday's (April 8th) Illinois Derby - at Hawthorne Race Course (http://www.hawthorneracecourse.com/) is set at 10 horses.

The $500,000 Illinois Derby (Grade II)

PP, HORSE, JOCKEY, Morning Line odds
1. Malameeze, J. McKee, 8-1
2. Creative Force, E. Perez, 30-1
3. Itsallaboutthechase, C. Emigh, 12-1
4. Lewis Michael, F. Alvarado, 20-1
5. Devilofarush, E. Baird, 30-1
6. Mister Triester, B. Blanc, 8-1
7. Cause to Believe, R. Baze, 5-2
8. Racketeer, P. Valenzuela, 5-1
9. My Golden Song, C. DeCarlo, 5-1
10. Sweetnorthernsaint, K. Desormeaux, 4-1

Keep an eye on this crucial chart: Graded Stakes Earnings as of 4-3-06 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32848) as the top 20 will only make it in.

The horse in the IL Derby with the highest graded-earnings to date is Malameeze with $66k (ranking him 22nd)

On television this weekend ....

ABC Sports will air the IL Derby, Wood Memorial (G1), Bay Shore (G3) and the older horses in the Carter (G1) from 4 - 5 pm EST; while NBC Sports will then take over at 5 pm airing the Santa Anita Derby (G1)

Glimmerglass
Apr. 6, 2006, 10:09 AM
ESPN 4/5/06 "Achilles of Troy out of Derby" (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2398300)

Such a shame :(


Paragallo said Achilles of Troy would leave the barn at the end of the week for a facility where he would be able to swim for 30 days. He wouldn't resume training until summer.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 6, 2006, 11:45 AM
A small but challenging field for this Saturday's Santa Anita Derby although Brother Dererk will likely loom large in this one. Especially since Fast Parade a true to name horse is not in the field. (He'll go to Keeneland for the G2 Lexington on the 22nd)

Brother Derek is unbeaten in three starts at Santa Anita, including the G2 Santa Catalina and San Rafael. He’s also unbeaten in four starts around two turns, including last fall’s Grade I Hollywood Futurity.

At 1 1/8 miles this will be his first distance challenge.

$750,000 Santa Anita Derby
PP. Horse, Jockey, ML Odds
1. A.P. Warrior, Corey Nakatani, 7-2
2. Brother Derek, Alex Solis, 3-5
3. Wildfang, Omar Berrio, 50-1
4. Indy Wildcat, Tyler Baze, 30-1
5. Sacred Light, Aaron Gryder, 9-2
6. Point Determined, Rafael Bejarano, 4-1

An article on Point Determined - CBS Sports/DRF 4-5-06 "Point Determined carries Lewis legacy" (http://horseracing.sportsline.com/cbs/headlines/showarticle.aspx?articleId=7815)


Baffert said Point Determined did not start until then because he had "super sore shins" after being purchased as a 2-year-old in training in March 2005.

"It took awhile for him to come around," Baffert said. "He needed to get his confidence."

Since he started racing, Point Determined has held up well, Baffert said.

"He's got Point Given's constitution," Baffert said. "He doesn't lose weight. He doesn't look like a horse who ran five times in less than three months. He's getting stronger."

Point Determined was purchased by the Lewises for $750,000 at Barretts. He was one of several big-ticket purchases as yearlings or 2-year-olds that now make up the Lewis-owned crop of 3-year-olds. Their horses are trained by either Baffert or D. Wayne Lukas.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 6, 2006, 12:14 PM
According to Robin Smullen, assistant to trainer Barclay Tagg, Showing Up has a bruised right front foot.

I'm not sure if the bruise now means he won't be able to make any prep-race (and will thus not meet the earning's requirement) or they will look to slot him into one of the very few remaining graded stakes races - e.g., G1, $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes on April 15 at Keeneland.

Positions for this Saturday's Wood Memorial at the Big A

Wood Memorial (G1) $750,000 at 1 1/8 Miles

PP. Horse, Jockey, Morning Line
1. Jazil, F. Jara, 10-1
2. Platinum Couple, J. Santos, 30-1
3. Keyed Entry, E. Prado, 5-2
4. Deputy Glitters, J. Lezcano, 7-2
5. Niagra Causeway, I. Enriquez, 30-1
6. Greeley's Legacy, E. Coa, 6-1
7. Bob and John, G. Gomez, 2-1
8. Marco's Tale, N. Arroyo Jr. 15-1
9. Scanlon's Song, R. Dominguez 20-1

Glimmerglass
Apr. 7, 2006, 09:16 AM
As for Showing Up, “We'll try to make it next weekend,” Tagg's assistant Robin Smullen said, referring to the Bluegrass or the Arkansas Derby. - AP news 4/6/06 (http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/20060406-1332-rac-woodmemorial.html)

Claudius
Apr. 8, 2006, 10:07 PM
Didn't he look like the consumate race horse today!!! He moves like a cat, straight and elastic....he really impressed me from the warm up on!!! He looks exceptionally well coordinated !!!

BasqueMom
Apr. 8, 2006, 10:40 PM
He's stunning!!!!!!!!!!!

Jinx
Apr. 8, 2006, 11:30 PM
I think i am going to hop on the Jazil bandwagon. His closing kick really impressed me, and I had him picked to win the Wood. Dont know if he'll get in the Derby but I sure hope so. I think he could be the outsider of the year....

Drvmb1ggl3
Apr. 8, 2006, 11:31 PM
Brother Derek

Wow, hard not to be impressed with this horse. Having seen his Santa Catalina and now the SA Derby you get the impression this horse has lots left in the tank. I guess the big question is the quality of the horses he has competed against in SoCal.
He doesn't give me the impression that he'd have a hard time with 10f.

I try not to get excited about horses until they do the biz on the first Sat in May, too many have come up short in the past, but I think we could be seeing something special here.

Another horse that impressed me today was Sweetnorthernsaint in the Illinois Derby. Granted he wasn't exactly in a stacked field, but his turn of foot is impressive and finished full of running. Seems like a very plucky horse that won't back down.

Unrelated questions. well kinda related.. but 1) why does Aqueduct have 2 dirt tracks? 2) why are Hawthorne and Sportsman's Park right next to each other? What's the logic in that?

Slewdledo
Apr. 9, 2006, 12:55 AM
Sportman's no longer runs horse races. Car races, yes. No more horses.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 9, 2006, 06:45 AM
Hawthorne was owned by the Cary family until the Bidwill family closed Sportsman's Park in 2002. Today Hawthorne is owned 50-50 by both families. The 70-year old SP won't be reopening as the City of Cicero purchased in 2003 Sportsman's for the purposes of retail development.

As for Saturday's racing action it seems terribly obvious that Brother Derek is very impressive and without a valid knock on him whatsoever. He didn't struggle at the distance, rates quite well, and has the ability to listen to his rider and will kick on at the asking. The training and race regiment to date will work perfectly going into the Derby.

By comparison I still think Barbaro - while also doing well - hasn't retired all doubt and just won't be as seasoned as BD. As cited during the program neither horse will have seen the large (and often crazy) 20-horse field of the Kentucky Derby which does add a new element. The FL and Santa Anita Derby each had relatively smaller fields.

Too Much Bling could go to the Derby but up against a Brother Derek with his two turn experience - why? Gelding 'Sweetnorthern Saint' took on a decent field in the IL Derby and impressed folks with speed on a dull track.

I wasn't a fan of Keyed Entry (the biggest claim IMHO was knocking off Samurai who I don't see winning the Derby period) so Bob and John's effort in the slop was almost expected. What wasn't was that sweet close and game effort right to the end by Jazil. I love it! The race doesn't end a furlong before the wire ;)

The next big race horse to go to the track will be Lawyer Ron in the Arkansas Derby. With two Grade 3 wins and 5 undefeated starts the horse is, like Brother Derek, being prepared very nicely in 2006. Per the DRF he put in a damn nice workout Saturday: working five furlongs in a bullet 59 seconds and galloped out six furlongs in 1:10.91 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/73448.html)

Drvmb1ggl3
Apr. 9, 2006, 10:58 AM
Sportman's no longer runs horse races. Car races, yes. No more horses.

But why were they right next to each other in the first place. I asked people in Chicago about this, as it really threw me for a loop the first time I saw that, yet nobody knew why.

Claudius
Apr. 9, 2006, 01:32 PM
In comparing the two, didn't Brother Derek impress you as the more athletic of the two? Two lovely horses for sure...but maybe is this Brother Derek something really special??? I know he raised the hair on the back of MY neck in the post parade....we'll see what THAT's worth!! :))

luvmytbs
Apr. 9, 2006, 06:31 PM
I just placed my future wager bet on Brother Derek, five seconds before they closed the bets ( I couldn't figure out where the heck TVG online put the future bet). :p

I can't wait til he gets to CD. Maybe I get a glimpse or two at him in a morning work. On TV he looks like one beautiful package and those huge strides in the SA Derby yesterday where just breathtaking.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 10, 2006, 02:31 PM
A good article on the prep races - in particular the Illinois Derby - and how the picture still isnt clear on the rest of the "cast" to fill up the field of 20.

NBC Sports Vic Zast 4-10-06 "Kentucky Derby preps bring up questions;
Sweetnorthernsaint, Brother Derek stamp themselves as contenders" (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12233512/page/2/print/1/displaymode/1098/)


In capturing the first Grade II victory for 39-year-old trainer Michael Trombetta, Sweetnorthernsaint accelerated in the long Hawthorne stretch to win going away. He drew even with Mr. Triester at the quarter pole and then increased his advantage to 9 1/4 lengths. His time of 1:49.82, while not anything spectacular, was excusable for a horse that had posted three Beyer figures in the 100s coming into the race. This horse can rumble, and he’s getting better.

“The Kentucky Derby is all about timing,” said Trombetta, as if he knew what he was talking about. In 20 years of training horses, Trombetta has never participated in a Kentucky Derby. “This horse is getting right at the right time,” he announced, departing the scene like a bride on her wedding night.

What made Sweetnorthernsaint’s victory all the more impressive is that he broke from the far outside 10 post.

Top 10 List as of 4-09-06
Baltimore Sun 4-10-06 (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horseracing/bal-sp.derby10apr10,0,5565099.story?coll=bal-sports-horse)

Horse, Trainer, Jockey, St W P S, Last race, Next race

1. Brother Derek, Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis, 8 6 0 1, Santa Anita Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)
2. Barbaro, Michael Matz, Edgar Prado, 5 5 0 0, Florida Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)
3. Lawyer Ron, Bob Holthus, John McKee, 13 6 1 3, Rebel (1st), Arkansas Derby (4/15)
4. Bob and John, Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez, 9 4 1 3, Wood Memorial (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)
5. First Samurai, Frank Brothers, Edgar Prado, 7 5 1 1, Fountain of Youth (pl 1st), Blue Grass (4/15)
6. Sweetnorthernsaint, Michael Trombetta, Kent Desormeaux, 6 3 0 1, Illinois Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)
7. Bluegrass Cat, Todd Pletcher, John Velasquez, 6 4 1 0, Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), Blue Grass (4/15)
8. Point Determined, Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano, 6 2 3 1, Santa Anita Derby (2nd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)
9. A.P. Warrior, John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani, 8 3 1 1, Santa Anita Derby (3rd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)
10. Strong Contender, John Ward Jr., Edgar Prado, 2 2 0 0, Allowance (GP) (1st), Blue Grass (4/15)

Triple Crown panel: John Cherwa, Orlando Sentinel; Dave Joseph, South Florida Sun-Sentinel; Bob Mieszerski, Los Angeles Times; Neil Milbert, Chicago Tribune; Paul Moran, Newsday.

Drvmb1ggl3
Apr. 10, 2006, 03:23 PM
A
“The Kentucky Derby is all about timing,” said Trombetta, as if he knew what he was talking about. In 20 years of training horses, Trombetta has never participated in a Kentucky Derby. “This horse is getting right at the right time,” he announced, departing the scene like a bride on her wedding night.

Yikes, that journo doesn't sugarcoat things!!

Glimmerglass
Apr. 12, 2006, 12:04 PM
Lawyer Ron is looking to be the southern Brother Derek with a strong command of two turns and fierce speed ...

The rest of the field should be afraid, very afraid of this monster on the lose Saturday.
Daily Racing Form (http://www.drf.com/news/article/73521.html)

Lawyer Ron set to serve notice
By MARY RAMPELLINI

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. - Lawyer Ron has won his last five starts by 31 lengths, and by all accounts he seems to be improving as he heads into the most important race of his career on Saturday, the Grade 2, $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.

The one to beat in the 1 1/8-mile race, Lawyer Ron has posted four straight two-turn stakes wins. In his final prep for the Arkansas Derby, he wowed a number of horsemen on Saturday by working five furlongs in a bullet 59 seconds and galloping out six furlongs in 1:10.91.

The powerful move signaled just how well Lawyer Ron has done since his three-length win in the Grade 3, $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 18.

"His last workout, I thought, was probably the best work he's ever had in his life," said Bob Holthus, who trains Lawyer Ron for the Estate of James T. Hines Jr.

"The way he worked the other morning, I tell you, he's just thriving," said John McKee, who was aboard for the drill. "He's just a monster right now."

Clockers caught Lawyer Ron galloping out seven furlongs in 1:23.46.

"That's the best work I've seen since Smarty Jones, prior to his Arkansas Derby," said Jim Hamilton, the state clocker at Oaklawn since 1992.

"He did it with ease, and just kept going," said Betty Fetters, a clocker for 14 years at Oaklawn.

Lawyer Ron has blossomed over the winter, according to Holthus.

"Since early December, he has really matured," he said. "He's probably put on at least 75 pounds. If you had a picture of him in December and one now, you wouldn't know it was the same horse. He's really filled out.

"And he's taken his training well. He's never missed a day. He is fortunate he's gotten this far without any injury or sickness or anything like that. You're always fortunate when you can come through the winter and not miss anything.

"He's been on top of his game better than four months."

... article continues ...

Glimmerglass
Apr. 12, 2006, 04:14 PM
$750,000 Blue Grass Stakes

worth noting: last Blue Grass winner to also win the KY Derby? 1991's Strike the Gold

PP Horse, Jockey, ML Odds
1. Little Cliff, Corey Nakatani, 10-1
2. Bluegrass Cat, John Velazquez, 5-2
3. Storm Treasure, Mark Guidry, 15-1
4. Strong Contender, Edgar Prado, 4-1
5. First Samurai, Rafael Bejarano, 8-5
6. Court Folly, Javier Castellano, 12-1
7. Sinister Minister, Garrett Gomez, 15-1
8. Sadler's Trick, Julien Leparoux, 15-1
9. Seaside Retreat, Patrick Husbands, 15-1

First Samurai is the ML favorite, however he's yet to win a race over 1-mile in distance ;)

$1-million Arkansas Derby (G2)

PP Horse, Jockey
1. New Joysey Jeff, Jose Valdivia Jr.
2. Steppenwolfer , Robby Albarado
3. High Cotton , Christopher De Carlo
4. With a City , Brice Blanc
5. Lawyer Ron , John McKee
6. Well Said , James Graham
7. Jealous Profit , Aaron Gryder
8. Private Vow , Shaun Bridgmohan
9. Red Raymond , Luis Quinonez
10. Simon Pure , Jon Court
11. Nob Hill Deelite , Corey Lanerie
12. Superfly , Willie Martinez
13. Film Fortune , Terry Thompson
14. Sayhellotolarry , Calvin Borel

stfatpony
Apr. 12, 2006, 09:56 PM
Sweetnorthernsaint is partially owned by a good friend of our family.
He was also third in the Gotham this year. We are all excited about his trip to KY.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 13, 2006, 06:12 PM
The Tagg trained colt with just two starts (both wins) is still trying for the Derby, but it looks increasingly slim. The Preakness seems both a bit more realistic and likely more fair to him ...

TB Times 4-12-06 "Unbeaten Showing Up expected to make next start in Lexington Stakes" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=63176&subsec=2)


... next start in the $325,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) on April 22 at Keeneland Race Course.

"It's a shot in the dark anyway," Tagg said from his barn at Gulfstream Park on Wednesday. "We're doing it because he's come around so well and done everything so easy, although it's probably not the smartest thing in the world to try and push him into something like the Derby.

"But we'll put him in [the Lexington] and see how he does around two turns. If anything, it should set him up nicely for the Preakness [Stakes on May 20.]"

Xctrygirl
Apr. 13, 2006, 06:18 PM
Hmmm I'm at Belmont. I knew about the work, yet I seem to know more that Glimmer :P

Anyway wait til the Lexington is over. Then watch the retractions fly. Maybe anyway.

Or I could just be teasing y'all.

~Emily

Glimmerglass
Apr. 13, 2006, 06:29 PM
.. but unlike Showing Up (and this is no knock on him) Strong Contender is being seen as a real threat in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass with no prior stakes races and just two starts.

the "odds" per the Courier-Journal:


AGAINST THE ODDS

What Strong Contender would be up against in the Kentucky Derby:

Last horse to win off three career starts: Regret (1915)
Last horse to win off four career starts: Exterminator (1918)
Last horses to attempt Derby off three career starts: Desert Hero, Valhol (1999)
Last horse to win off two starts at 3: Sunny's Halo (1983) **
Record of horses with two starts at 3 since 1983: 0-5-1 in 32 starts.
Last horse to win off only one prior stakes: Proud Clarion (1967)
Last horse to win off only one start at 2: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000)

** Sunny's Halo also had 9 starts as a 2-yrs old

Courier-Journal 4-13-06 "Strong Contender or pretender?" (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060413/SPORTS08/604130440)


The raves for Strong Contender started in full force a year ago when he breezed a quarter-mile in 212/5 seconds before Keeneland's 2-year-old sale. Like Monarchos, his sire is Maria's Mon and he has stamina-laden stallion Roberto on his dam's side. He wound up the sales topper at $800,000.

"He had all the parts," Oxley said. "It was just a horse I felt we had to have. … Naturally, you expect to have more than two races, but this was definitely the objective in my mind, the Kentucky Derby.

"But it is a big assignment, because usually you don't go from two races to go around two turns for the first time, in graded stakes for the first time against multiple graded-stakes winners. … To have expectations of winning is quite unusual, but I think this horse is exceptional."

SeaOat
Apr. 13, 2006, 06:54 PM
I'll have to pull for Sweetnorthernsaint since my SO is the one who castrated him :) There you have it, my big connection to the big horse, who just galloped in the Illinois w/out those little additions!

Glimmerglass
Apr. 15, 2006, 06:29 PM
Sinister Minster TROUNCED the field for a 12 3/4 lengths win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes! He was on the back stretch already a solid 8 lengths a head of the field and nobody ever threatened him.

Storm Treasure and Strong Contender finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

I think this shows clear evidence that First Samurai is over his head at a distance over 1-mile. He'll likely go to the Derby but it almost begs the question - why?

Bluegrass Cat was a distant 4th.

I made a nice little bit of profit on the race :)

Glimmerglass
Apr. 15, 2006, 06:33 PM
I think the verdict was reached and the attorney won - easily :) Steppenwolfer, who is geared for the distance, will be great for the Belmont as he repeated his 2nd place to Lawyer Ron.

Lawyer Ron will go to the Kentucky Derby in a trio of top talent joining Barbaro and Brother Derek. The rest of the Derby potential field just isn't performing at the level these three have.

furlong47
Apr. 15, 2006, 07:44 PM
I think this shows clear evidence that First Samurai is over his head at a distance over 1-mile. He'll likely go to the Derby but it almost begs the question - why?

Before the race -- Frank Brothers had mentioned that if First Samurai didn't do well in the Bluegrass (win, or run a good race to place or show) he probably wouldn't be entered in the Derby. Though obviously, trainers often say one thing and do another.

I did like First Samurai last year, but with his recent performances I don't think that he belongs in the Derby.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 15, 2006, 11:18 PM
An interesting view - East Coast (prepped) horses aren't cutting it ...

FL Sun Sentinal 4-16-06 "Taking a beating; East Coast contenders look like Derby pretenders (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/sfl-josephcol16apr16,0,1866485.column)


As for what many considered the East Coast's top Derby hopefuls, Strong Contender and Bluegrass Cat finished third and fourth, respectively, in the Blue Grass beaten between 17-20 lengths. First Samurai was no factor in fifth.

Pletcher, who nominated 38 horses to the Triple Crown, could be down to two Derby starters, Keyed Entry, who finished third in the Wood and is suspect at the Derby's 11/4-mile distance, and Sunriver, third in the Florida Derby. Even trainer Nick Zito may not have a Derby entry after his Little Cliff ran eighth in the Blue Grass.


But this much is clear: Five of the past six winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes spent the spring prepping in California or Arkansas. On the evening of May 6, judging by the past two weekends, that statistic could read six of the past seven.

adventurebeachponies
Apr. 16, 2006, 12:39 AM
I am also rooting hard for Sweet Northern Saint... I have a Sweet Southern Saint filly in training and dad's stock rising is a very good thing!

JER
Apr. 16, 2006, 09:46 PM
Quite a run by Sinister Minister. He left the gate flying and never even acknowledged the rest of the field.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 17, 2006, 10:58 AM
Can we all say speed duel to the first turn at the Derby?

The latest Top 10 poll from the Courier Journal drops Barbaro down from 3rd to 5th and pulls in Sinister Minister into the 10th slot.

One has to wonder since Sinister Minister will not rate and will not settle into 2nd if he isn't going to be this year's Spanish Chestnut. An unintended rabbit for the field who could burn out Brother Derek which maybe is Bob Baffert's plan - with Bob and John to overtake an exhausted field;)

Louisville Courier Journal Original Top 10 poll for April 16, 2006 (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060416/SPORTS08/304160009)


Horse Owner Trainer Last Week

1. Brother Derek Cecil Peacock Dan Hendricks 1
2. Lawyer Ron Estate of James T. Hines Jr. Bob Holthus 2
3. A. P. Warrior Stan Fulton John Sherriffs 4
4. Sweetnorthernsaint Joseph J. Balsamo Michael Trombetta 9
5. Bob and John Stonerside Stable LLC Bob Baffert 4
5. Barbaro Lael Stables Michael Matz 3
7. Point Determined Beverly Lewis Bob Baffert 6
8. Steppenwolfer Robert E. & Lawana L. Low Daniel Peitz [NR]
9. Jazil Shadwell Farm LLC Kiaran McLaughlin 10
10. Sinister Minister Bernard Schiappa Bob Baffert [NR]

Steppenwolfer looks to be a great choice for finishing in the money. He is content to sit back, let speed take over then stalk and close. With his 'gearing' for distance the 1 1/4 mi will be fine for him

Associated Press Top 10 for April 16, 2006 (http://www.forbes.com/technology/feeds/ap/2006/04/16/ap2672941.html)


This week's top 10, with final Derby future wager odds:

1. Brother Derek (Dan Hendricks, trainer, Alex Solis, jockey): Early Derby favorite will have company up front in Derby. ... Set for workout this week at Santa Anita; expected to be in Louisville on April 25. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby (May 6) ... Odds: 5-1.

2. Lawyer Ron (Bob Holthus, John McKee): Six in a row after sweeping aside 12 rivals in Arkansas Derby. ... Next start: Derby ... Odds: 8-1.

3. Barbaro (Michael Matz, Edgar Prado): Unbeaten colt training at Keeneland, with workout expected next Sunday. ... Galloped on the main track Sunday, with gallops planned on the Polytrack during the week. ... Next start: Derby ... Odds: 9-1.

4. Point Determined (Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano): If there's too much speed up front, Baffert could get his fourth Derby win with this colt. ... Next start: Derby ... Odds: 13-1.

5. Bob and John (Baffert, Garrett Gomez): Wood Memorial winner also likes to run near the front. ... Next start: Derby ... Odds: 13-1.

6. Sweetnorthernsaint (Michael Trombetta, Kent Desormeaux): Starting to become popular choice after romp in Illinois Derby on April 8. ... Next start: Derby ... Odds: 10-1.

7. Sinister Minister (Baffert, Gomez): Gate-to-wire Blue Grass winner could have been claimed in January for $62,500. ... Would have won California Derby but hit rail twice in the stretch. ... Next start: Derby ... Odds: 15-1 (mutuel field).

8. Steppenwolfer (Daniel Pietz, Robby Albarado): Second-best to Lawyer Ron in Arkansas in prep races. ... Extra distance in Derby could help. ... And he's named for the rock group Steppenwolf. ... Next start: Derby ... Odds: 47-1.

9. A.P. Warrior (John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani): Nakatani confirmed for the mount. ... Will train at Santa Anita and be shipped to Churchill Down on May 2. ... Next start: Derby ... Odds: 24-1.

10. Like Now (Kiaran McLaughlin, Fernando Jara): Gotham winner recovered quickly from fever that kept him out of Wood Memorial. ... Next start: Lexington Stakes (Saturday) ... Odds: 70-1.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 17, 2006, 11:06 AM
From the LA Times - "Message Is Delivered by Sinister Minister" (http://www.latimes.com/sports/horseracing/la-sp-bluegrass16apr16,1,6764398.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-horse_raci)


There were no near-mishaps, such as those the colt had in the California Derby on March 11 at Golden Gate Fields.

"People didn't realize he hit the rail about three or four times….It was pretty wild," Baffert said. "When he went over that rail, really, something bad could have happened."

"I told Garrett, 'Coming for home, make sure you hit him left-handed. I don't want him to scrape you off against the rail.' He was telling me the jockeys were giving him a hard time, saying, 'Hey, we saw that race at Golden Gate.'

-snip-

"Bob's done a nice job of bringing this horse along," said Ward, Strong Contender's trainer. "He won, and he did a nice job. He didn't run into the fence today, so it made him run a little faster."

:) anyone recall the recent horse, Yessirgeneralsir? Another horse that just ran his eyeballs out when he went out on the track.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 17, 2006, 02:10 PM
DRF APR 17, 2006 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/73664.html)


First Samurai off Derby trail
By JAY PRIVMAN

First Samurai, who finished fifth in Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, is officially off the Kentucky Derby trail, his co-owner, Bruce Lunsford, told Daily Racing Form on Monday.

However, there are still so many 3-year-olds whose connections want to run in the 132nd Derby on May 6 that it appears graded stakes earnings will come into play. If more than 20 horses are entered in the Derby, the field is determined by earnings in graded stakes races.

That development makes this Saturday's $325,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland a particularly crucial race for the likes of the undefeated Showing Up, who does not have any graded stakes money, and Sunriver, the third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, who currently is too low on the graded stakes list to make the Derby field.

The Lexington, along with the Withers Stakes on April 29 at Aqueduct, are the only two remaining graded stakes races for 3-year-olds preceding the Derby.

SimplyTwisted
Apr. 17, 2006, 04:10 PM
I was at the track and saw the AR Derby Saturday, and it was a great race to watch. I really liked how John McKee rode Ron- he did a good job. Vow and Steppenwolfer gave it a great go and I was equally as impressed.
In the paper yesterday, they were talking about the fact that despite Ron's nice win in the derby, it was the slowest one in at least a decade, I think.

I've grown up on and around Oaklawn, and the fact that we have had so many recent winners who spent their spring prep here has really inspired a new surge in pride for the track and for the entire community. With Smarty and Alex and now with Ron, even though they weren't homebred here, they all became OUR horses. It's pretty amazing to witness, and on a much smaller level makes me think about how people got behind Seabiscuit. That's how it is for my community, in large part.

That has little relevance-- the post about east coast horses not being able to cut it with the contenders who are coming out of Cal and Arkansas just made me think about it-- but we take a lot of pride in the fact that Oaklawn is/has become a good prep track that is becoming a major springboard for big winners.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 17, 2006, 06:57 PM
In the paper yesterday, they were talking about the fact that despite Ron's nice win in the derby, it was the slowest one in at least a decade, I think.

Record crowd (70k+), good weather and great racing - sounds like a winning combo for those who attended like yourself ;)

As for Ron's effort, the Blood-Horse says this:


Once he got to the front, he [Lawyer Ron] shifted into his cruising mode, and that, for all intents and purposes, was the race. Yes, he came home slow and the final time was slow, but the Oaklawn surface once again was dead, as it's been all meet, especially in distance races, and horses were crawling home all day.

All you had to do was look at the fluidity and extension of Lawyer Ron's stride in the final eighth to realize this was not a tired horse. If you watch his last six victories you will see that exact same stride in every one of them. And he changes leads so smoothly you can barely see him do it.

This horse simply is a running machine that is starting to look more and more like a throwback to the days when horses were tough as nails and ran for the pure joy of it. - Blood-Horse 4-17-06 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33076)

From the same article, regarding Sinister Minister:


... a 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes ...

Not only did Sinister Minister continue to pour it on after setting blistering fractions, he never changed leads in the stretch and was continuously being smacked left-handed by Garrett Gomez to keep him from ducking into the rail again. Although it appears he'd be better off waiting the five weeks and pointing for the Preakness (gr. I), we all know that is not going to happen.

JER
Apr. 17, 2006, 09:37 PM
Can we all say speed duel to the first turn at the Derby?


I'm saying DRAG RACE if Sinister Minister goes out like that again.

I'll definitely put off that last-minute trip to the fridge this year. The start should be a hoot.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 19, 2006, 10:05 AM
I enjoyed this (horseless) photo: Washington Post photo (http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2006/04/18/PH2006041802042.jpg): caption reads - Kentucky Derby hopeful Sweetnorthernsaint, a Maryland-based horse, has drawn a slew of media attention since winning the Illinois Derby.

It goes with this article: Washington Post 4-19-06 "Md. Trainer Dreams Of a 'Sweet' Derby" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/18/AR2006041802034.html)

excerpt:


Rudy Trombetta looked at the line of television cameras pointed at his son, Michael, and the gaggle of reporters surrounding him with microphones, tape recorders and notebooks, and didn't sound too impressed.

"I remember when this happened every other Saturday," said Trombetta, 72, shaking his cane at the busy crowd outside Barn 33 yesterday at Laurel Park. "You didn't need a Derby contender back in the early '50s to draw this kind of crowd."

... article continues ... The dark bay gelding is the first horse based at one of the Maryland racetracks to go to the Derby since Talk Is Money finished last in 2001.

see also, Baltimore Sun 4-19-06 "'Saint' keeping fine company" (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-sp.saint19apr19,0,219578.story?coll=bal-sports-headlines)


Though Trombetta said the session was good training for his horse, he didn't bring him into the sunshine to parade him around.

"I certainly don't want to bring him out here," Trombetta said, motioning to the asphalt area outside his barn. "My objective is to keep him healthy. You've seen how fast he can run. If something happened and he got away from me, I have a lot better chance of catching him along the shed row than I do out in the open, chasing him down the road."

But nothing happened. Saint, which is what Sweetnorthern- saint's team calls him, acted like one.

Acted like a star. Standing, posing. Looking back at the cameras looking at him.

"Nothing bothers him," said Ferdinand, who described riding Saint as "like being in a limousine. He's smooth."

Glimmerglass
Apr. 19, 2006, 10:11 AM
Video report from Laurel Park on "Saint" and trainer, Mike Trombetta: CBS 12 WJZ-TV Baltimore Tue APR 16- Maryland's Derby horse (http://wjz.com/sports/local_story_108142116.html)

Glimmerglass
Apr. 20, 2006, 03:42 PM
The DRF has made available the Past Performances for the 2006 Derby Contenders - pdf (http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/pps/derbycontenders.pdf)

How else would we know that Lawyer Ron lost his last turf start (Aug 25, 2005) to among others, El Chile Dog :)

Or that in Steppenwolfer's 2nd start, when he broke his maiden, he beat Jazil

The horses included in the above link is pretty exhaustive by including all those inside the top 20, those on the bubble and those likely for Saturday's last hope to getting in.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 20, 2006, 04:50 PM
Pletcher's Sunriver, currently with $100k in graded earnings and in 22nd position today will not race again before the Derby. Essentially they are banking on others dropping out although I suspect with the Coolmore Lexington race this weekend it almost certainly will vault new horses into the mix and drop Sunriver out of a starting slot.

Speaking of this weekend's race:

$325k G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes
Keeneland, April 22 1 1/16 miles (to be delayed aired on ESPN2)

PP - Horse, Jockey
1. Gone Prospecting, John Velazquez
2. Showing Up, Cornelio Velasquez <-- (ML favorite) Tagg's horse; will go to Derby if wins
3. More Than Regal, Shaun Bridgmohan
4. Hemingway's Key, Rafael Bejarano
5. Bear Character, Rene Douglas
6. Special Interest, Mark Guidry
7. Chin High, Robby Albarado <-- will not go to Derby even if wins
8. Like Now, Fernando Jara
9. Fast Parade, Mick Ruis
10. Greeley's Legacy, Javier Castellano

(Remaining as the very last hope will be next weekend's Withers Stakes at Belmont and the Derby Hopeful at Churchill, won last year by Don't Get Mad who then last year almost nipped Afleet Alex for 3rd)

Glimmerglass
Apr. 21, 2006, 10:31 AM
Typically the Frederick Tesio Stakes at Pimilico is a prep for those Maryland-based horses looking to show their stuff before going to the Preakness. This year is somewhat the same although no standouts like Magic Weisner from a few years ago ...

To be aired on ESPN2 Saturday along with the Coolmore Lexington


$150,000 Federico Tesio Stakes
3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, ML Odds
1. Roamin Murphy (KY), Joseph Rocco, Jr., 116, 12/1
2. Victory Lake (KY), Jozbin Santana, 116, 10/1
3. Kona Blend (VA), Michael Luzzi, 116, 20/1
4. Ah Day (MD), Ryan Fogelsonger, 116, 3/1 <- gelded son of Malibu Moon
5. Scanlon's Song (MD), Kyle Kaenel, 116, 7/2
6. Sharps Island (KY), Enrique Jurado, 116, 20/1
7. Kellers Church Rd. (PA), Victor Molina, 116, 20/1
8. Our Peak (MD), A. R. Napravnik, 120, 5/1
9. Vegas Play (MD), Mario Pino, 120, 8/1
10. Putonyerdancinshuz (PA), Eriluis Vaz, 116, 6/1
11. Colby Cat (FL), Luis Garcia, 116, 8/1
(from The BloodHorse 4-21-06 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33130))

Glimmerglass
Apr. 21, 2006, 04:31 PM
Despite the catchy headline it is not related to the uber great grey horse ;) The actual auction should end today - or already has today.


What they need is a spectacular bid
Friday, April 7, 2006

What would you pay for a foot-tall piece of horse racing history?

It will take at least $10,000 to buy the jockey's cup awarded to Jean Cruguet when he rode 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew to victory in the Kentucky Derby.

The 9-inch silver trophy on a 3-inch marble base went up for sale Monday on the Internet site Mastroauctions.com. As of last night, the only bid was for $10,000. The auction still has two weeks to run.

Brian Marren, who is in charge of consignments for Mastro Auctions, would not identify the seller.

Cruguet, who lives in Versailles, Ky., said he is definitely not the seller. When he learned the trophy is on the market, he said, "I couldn't believe it."

Cruguet said he sold the trophy four or five years ago to Ken Grayson, a Lexington insurance agent and collector of racing memorabilia. Grayson declined to say yesterday whether he is the seller.

"I'd just rather not elaborate," he said.

Cruguet said that when his wife, Denyse, faced medical expenses, he sold several items to Grayson.

"I gave him three or four boxes of stuff," he said. "Altogether he gave me $7,500."

Regardless of how it happened, "a Kentucky Derby trophy is a pretty rare item to come up for sale," Marren said. "You very seldom see those trophies."

The trophy's ties to a Triple Crown winner greatly increase its value, said Leonard Lusky, president of Secretariat.com.

"I'd say it doubles it," he said. "Maybe triples it."

Lusky noted that a buyer paid $7,500 for a single nail from a shoe that Secretariat wore in his 31-length victory in the 1973 Belmont Stakes.

JER
Apr. 22, 2006, 06:25 PM
Or at least he won the Coolmore Lexington S. A slow time but a good run -- Showing Up looked like he might get stuck on the inside before going wide and pulling ahead.

Xctrygirl
Apr. 22, 2006, 06:33 PM
From last week:
Hmmm I'm at Belmont. I knew about the work, yet I seem to know more that Glimmer :P

Anyway wait til the Lexington is over. Then watch the retractions fly. Maybe anyway.

Or I could just be teasing y'all.

~Emily

Now that Showing Up has won the Lexington and earned enough $$ to be in the Derby.... my money is on the likelihood he will run. Only because I know some of his 'connections'.

~Emily

Glimmerglass
Apr. 22, 2006, 06:56 PM
An aside, I enjoyed ESPN2's more comprehensive then normal show - plenty of good side bits and the like. The first time I went to Keeneland I couldn't believe the drive through betting windows either :)

Anyhow I liked the effort by Showing Up which showed controlled maturity which is an odd thing to say about a horse with only now a mere 3 lifetime starts and only 1 graded stakes race.

I'm glad that Tagg will be back in the spotlight despite him loathing it!

Is it me or are the owners of Showing Up and Barbaro a bit uh, uncharismatic? Nice folks, I'm sure but they come across as either wallflowers or dull as dishwater. They'd better get used to media interest and if you can barley make a comment worth even using as sound bite then something is wrong. The scenarios of having two undefeated horses going to the Kentucky Derby, one being a top favorite, should be like taking in a case of Redbull - you should be on high!

Glimmerglass
Apr. 22, 2006, 07:18 PM
Love him or hate him, he still knows how to get horses to perform ...Patrick Valenzuela (P Val) has been named as the jockey by Todd Pletcher for Keyed Entry for the Kentucky Derby ...

MsM
Apr. 23, 2006, 01:50 PM
I just read that With a City was euthanized after suffering from "an unknown illness" A necropsy is planned. Such a shame and hope it was nothing contagious!

Glimmerglass
Apr. 23, 2006, 04:32 PM
My condolences to all the connections to With A City as that is simply terrible :( BloodHorse Apr 23rd "Illness Claims Lane's End Winner With a City" (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33169)


... fell ill on Thursday with an unknown ailment and quickly deteriorated. The colt was taken to the Hagyard Equine Medical Institute in Lexington, Ky., on Friday, but With a City's condition continued to worsen and the decision to euthanize the colt was made on Sunday morning.

Reminds me of the very rapid death of G-1 winner Saratoga County and Egg Head where they developed colitis and then laminitis very quickly and had to be euthanized in a very short period of time. See BloodHorse Aug 2005 (http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=29290) also TB Times Oct 2005 (Lawsuit) (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnewsarchive/ttodaysnewsviewarchive.asp?ArchiveDate=10/14/2005#58205) and BloodHorse JUL 2005 (http://racing.bloodhorse.com//viewstory.asp?id=29021)

Glimmerglass
Apr. 24, 2006, 09:35 AM
Not that surprising based upon his failure to win the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, but Like Now is no longer in contention for the Derby (despite being on the bubble with earnings) and will likely start next in the Preakness Stakes.

The only additional bit I saw on With A City in the last 24-hours ..

TBTimes 4-23-06 "Kentucky Derby hopeful, Lane's End winner With a City dies" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=63337&subsec=2)


With a City, who suffered from seizures as his condition worsened.

"I've been on the racetrack my whole life, and the veterinarians had quite a bit of experience and they've never seen anything like it,'' Maker said. "They think maybe he had some kind of swelling on the brain, or something in the brain that was causing him to do what he was doing. But any kind of illness that we deal with on a day-to-day basis—the [equine] herpes, the strangles, or West Nile [virus] or something—they've ruled all that out.''

Glimmerglass
Apr. 24, 2006, 02:32 PM
This BloodHorse article has a tremendous wealth of info on the various contenders as of this past weekend:

Blood Horse Apr 24, 2006 "All's Quiet at the Downs, as the Invasion Nears" (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33187)

example


Sinister Minister, was scheduled to van over from Keeneland around noon today, and it will be interesting to see how he's recovered from his monster performance in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Baffert said the son of Old Trieste still was pretty knocked out several days after the race.

Lawyer Ron is an Afleet Alex type of horse in that he does everything you want him to do and seems to love every minute of it. He is loaded with personality and is extremely professional in everything he does. He stood for some 10 to 15 minutes on the track watching all the activity just prior to the renovation break, and didn't get going until everyone had cleared out and he had pretty much the entire track to himself.

Even jogging before his gallop, he was competitive and kept trying to get the better of the other joggers. He then galloped two miles and was still full of life afterward.

[Steppenwolfer] has become good buddies with trainer Dan Peitz' two kittens, who often come visiting his stall.

.... article continues

An interesting article on the Jacksons behind Barbaro and Showing Up:

Philadelphia Inquirer 4-23-06 "Philly Derby drama - again" (http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/horse_racing/kentucky_derby/14409316.htm)


Barbaro got his name from a painting of a foxhound that hangs in the Jacksons' home. Showing Up's name came from a Woody Allen quote that Gretchen Jackson always liked: "Eighty percent of success is showing up."

The local horse community is close-knit, so it should come as no surprise that Gretchen Jackson has known Smarty Jones' co-owner Pat Chapman for years, or that they were on the same fox hunts. Gretchen Jackson once bought a pleasure horse from Pat Chapman. The Jacksons also had some horses at Philadelphia Park with Smarty Jones trainer John Servis in the early 1990s.

Roy Jackson's own family tree is impressive. His mother, Almira R. Scott, was a prominent local horsewoman who was a regular at Radnor Hunt fox hunts. Her father, William G. Rockefeller, once was treasurer of Standard Oil Co. Jackson's stepfather, Hardie Scott, was a congressman representing Philadelphia from 1947 to 1953 and introduced the bill that turned Independence Hall into a national landmark and park. The Jackson family tree includes a governor of Delaware.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 24, 2006, 03:59 PM
Again this poor colt appears to be hit with another injury - perhaps minor, but maybe enough to keep him out of the KD. For having just three starts he has had the absessed hoof and now a punctured leg ...

DRF 4-24-06 "Punctured leg for Showing Up" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/73870.html)


Showing Up came out of his victory in Saturday's Lexington Stakes with a puncture wound in his right foreleg, trainer Barclay Tagg said Monday morning. However, Tagg said if he can get the injury healed in time, Showing Up would run in the Kentucky Derby on May 6.

"Those things are dangerous; it doesn't look like much, it's a tiny little hole, but you can put the head of a squirt tube down there and put antibiotics in there and flush it out the best you can," Tagg said Monday at Belmont Park where Showing Up had returned following a 13 1-2-hour van ride. "I've had them go both ways. I've had them heal up overnight, and I've had them get really bad and you damn near lose the horse. It's certainly a concern."

Drvmb1ggl3
Apr. 24, 2006, 06:40 PM
Again this poor colt appears to be hit with another injury - perhaps minor, but maybe enough to keep him out of the KD. For having just three starts he has had the absessed hoof and now a punctured leg ...

Tagg said Monday at Belmont Park where Showing Up had returned following a 13 1-2-hour van ride. (http://www.drf.com/news/article/73870.html)

Hmmm, the fact that they vanned him 13½ hours from Lexington back to Belmont instead of leaving him nearer to Louisville with less than 2 weeks to the big day kinda says a lot.

Glimmerglass
Apr. 25, 2006, 02:31 PM
Hmmm, the fact that they vanned him 13½ hours from Lexington back to Belmont instead of leaving him nearer to Louisville with less than 2 weeks to the big day kinda says a lot.

I would tend to agree but Tagg did have a response to that as well:

DRF: 'Showing Up returned to Belmont Park Monday morning following a 13 1/2-hour van ride from Lexington. Tagg said he would have shipped Showing Up back to New York regardless of the nature of the wound, and he wants to address the situation firsthand.' (http://www.drf.com/news/article/73888.html)

What do the sports pundits think of the field? Here is a recent Top 10 of who is going to the big dance:


Triple Crown rankings (Apr 24th)

Horse, Trainer, Jockey, St W P S, Last race, Next race

1. Lawyer Ron, Bob Holthus, John McKee, 14 7 1 3, Arkansas Derby (4/15), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

2. Brother Derek, Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis, 8 6 0 1, Santa Anita Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

3. Barbaro, Michael Matz, Edgar Prado, 5 5 0 0, Florida Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

4. Bob and John, Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez, 9 4 1 3, Wood Memorial (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

5. Point Determined, Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano, 6 2 3 1, Santa Anita Derby (2nd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

6. Sweetnorthernsaint, Michael Trombetta, Kent Desormeaux, 6 3 0 1, Illinois Derby (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

7. A.P. Warrior, John Shirreffs, Corey Nakatani, 8 3 1 1, Santa Anita Derby (3rd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

8. Steppenwolfer, Daniel PIetz, Robbie Albarado, 8 3 2 2, Arkansas Derby (2nd), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

9. Showing Up, Barclay Tagg, Cornelio Velasquez, 3 3 0 0, Lexington (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

10. Sinister Minister, Bob Baffert, Victor Espinoza, 5 2 1 0, Blue Grass Stakes (1st), Kentucky Derby (5/6)

Triple Crown panel: John Cherwa, Orlando Sentinel; Dave Joseph, South Florida Sun-Sentinel; Bob Mieszerski, Los Angeles Times; Neil Milbert, Chicago Tribune; Paul Moran, Newsday

I have to say that I've been leaning more towards Lawyer Ron then anyone else. In addition to his performances, the distance he can handle, and his running style is the fact that he's had 15 starts adds value vs. others with thin experience only off set by a big effort ;)

lizathenag
Apr. 25, 2006, 07:33 PM
Think how many post parades he has been in. I would think that might help on crazy day!

Glimmerglass
Apr. 25, 2006, 09:55 PM
I should be corrected - Lawyer Ron will be making his 15th start in the Derby, but he has seen full fields in races before with 14 others in the Arkansas Derby so just few more horses in the charge won't spook him ;) The cover of The Blood Horse last week by the way had a wonderful picture of him on the cover.

Odd perhaps is the story from the B-H that cites trainer Dale Romans warning all of his fellow Derby entries - don't try and get in a drag race with Sharp Humor as he'll smoke 'em. Romans Issues Warning ("http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33211)

Me thinks this only adds fuel to the fire of a drag race :)


"I wouldn't want to be the horse out there looking him in the eye. ... "I'm planning on sending him," he said bluntly. "I don't know how good Sinister Minister came out of his race (in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes-I), but I'm not going to try to change our horse's style of running and try to teach him to come from behind. It's too late in the game. He's never done it and we're not going to change it going into the Derby."

Interesting ....

JER
Apr. 26, 2006, 12:48 AM
I'm looking forward to the total insanity of Sinister Minister. Of course, he's at a slight disadvantage in that Churchill Downs has a rail on the inside of the track and if anyone saw the Cal Derby, the rail usually prevails when challenged to a game of 'chicken'. Hopefully, Sharp Humor will stay to the outside and Sinister Minister won't mistake him for the rail. That could be ugly.

Speaking of the Cal Derby, I liked the way Cause to Believe ran (and I haven't seen the Ill Derby where he was 3rd) and he's been quite successful at a variety of distances with his late speed. Could he be this year's Monarchos?

Glimmerglass
Apr. 26, 2006, 10:17 AM
This article by NBC Commentator, Bob Neumeier puts it in perspective ;>

NBC Sports/Bob Neumeier 4/25 (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12387204/print/1/displaymode/1098/)


Solis could end Kentucky Derby drought
0-for-14 jockey likely to ride favored Brother Derek; and other top stories

By Bob Neumeier
April 25, 2006

With less than two weeks to go before the most exciting two minutes in sports, here is a little of this and little of that as we get set for the Kentucky Derby on May 6:

Jockey Alex Solis aboard likely post-time favorite Brother Derek has the longest winless skein in Derby history (0-for-14).

Should Showing Up win the Derby, trainer Barclay Tagg would become only the third conditioner to win the race with his first two starters (Funny Cide 2003). The legendary Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons clicked with Gallant Fox (1930) and Omaha (1935) and Henry Forrest scored with his first two — Kauai King (1966) and Forward Pass (1968).

If Showing Up even starts in the Kentucky Derby, owners Roy and Gretchen Jackson (Lael Stables) would become the first owners in Derby history to start two undefeated colts (Barbero, the other).

Four winners of major prep races could have been purchased via the “claim box” earlier in their career — Arkansas Derby winner Lawyer Ron ($50k), Blue Grass Stakes winner Sinister Minister ( $62.5k), Illinois Derby champion Sweetnorthernsaint ($40k), and Tampa Bay Derby victor Deputy Glitters ($65k).

Of the seven highest rated two-year-olds of the 2005 Experimental Free Handicap, only two will make it postward for the Kentucky Derby — Brother Derek and private Vow.

Only three of the expected 20 trainers for this year’s running have ever won the race — Bob Baffert (three times), John Shirreffs, and Barclay Tagg.

Along those same lines, only three of the expected 20 jockeys for this race have ever won the Derby — Kent Desormeaux (twice), Victor Espinoza, and Patrick Valenzuela.

A Derby win by trainer Bob Baffert would give him four in his career — tying him for second all-time with Dick Thompson and D. Wayne Lukas. Ben Jones potted six winners with only 11 starters.

Nearly half of the trainers with horses for this year’s race are making their Derby debut — Dan Hendricks (Brother Derek), Michael Matz (Barbero), Michael Trombetta (Sweetnorthernsaint), Daniel Pietz (Steppenwolfer), Mark Casse (Seaside retreat), Dale Romans (Sharp Humor,) and Tom Albertrani (Deputy Glitters).

Only one Derby winner in the last 11 years (War Emblem) and only two in the last 17 years have been positioned either first or second at the half-mile call of the race.

In 82 runnings of the Blue Grass prep race, only Arts and Letters (15 lengths, 1969) and Alydar (13 lengths, 1978) had a wider margin of victory than this year’s winner, Sinister minister (12 ¾ lengths).

The last two winners of the Arkansas Derby prep race — Smarty Jones (2004) and Afleet Alex (2005) went on to win two legs of the Triple Crown. Lawyer Ron is eligible to make it three.

$1000 mint juleps will be available to the first 50 customers to plunk down the loot — gold-plated cup, silver straw, mint from Morocoo, ice from the Arctic Circle, and sugar from the South Pacific comprise the concoction.

As for the inexperienced Strong Contender, he looks like a perfect candidate for the Preakness Stakes in five weeks time, and perhaps missing the Ky. Derby (insufficient earnings) will be a blessing in disguise — he’s just not ready. After being pinched back out of the gate in the Blue Grass, jockey Edgar Prado moved him steadily up the rail, passing one horse after another until he ran out of gas at the top of the lane — a promising effort.

All in all, the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby results set up a livelier pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby than originally anticipated. Likely favorite Brother Derek will have no early waltz as he did in the Santa Anita Derby. But neither will Sinister Minister, Lawyer Ron, Sharp Humor, Barbaro, or any other pace presser for that matter.

With three weeks to go, I have one word that comes to mind to describe the run-up to this year’s Derby — fascinating.

The Derby, as cited above, has almost always been a closer's paradise, which should divert a lot of betting interest to Steppenwolfer

Claudius
May. 1, 2006, 07:00 AM
We are watching the Derby media coverage about the works and are not hearing any for Brother Derek....is he out? Several pundits have listed their favs and nothing on Brother Derek. I haven't seen any info on this...did I miss something??

Glimmerglass
May. 1, 2006, 10:54 AM
We are watching the Derby media coverage about the works and are not hearing any for Brother Derek....is he out? Several pundits have listed their favs and nothing on Brother Derek. I haven't seen any info on this...did I miss something??

Nope - he's a 'ok'

ESPN did a Derby Preview and separated the horses by regions so just maybe you missed when they did the "West" grouping? Mike Battaglia, the official odds maker at Churchill, will in fact install Brother Derek as the Morning Line favorite for the Derby.

TB Times 5-1-06 "Brother Derek works four furlongs at Churchill Downs" (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=63527&subsec=2)

.. he is looking quite good going into this last week!

Glimmerglass
May. 2, 2006, 09:00 AM
Obviously a lot of these comments to the media are just to play with the heads of other trainers and jockeys, but we do appear to have our new Spanish Chestnut of 2005!

Herald-Leader 5/2/06 "Sinister Minister forewarned; Trainer Romans says Sharp Humor up to task" (http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/horse_racing/kentucky_derby/14477934.htm)


So, Sinister Minister either runs out front with his mouth gagged open for 11/4 miles and wins Derby 132 -- grinning, open-mouthed -- or the pressure proves too much. Then he folds, and Sharp Humor will be there to profit from that because Romans says his colt is going to last the 11/4 miles.

Back to the question, then: Who is the fastest?

Sinister Minister earned a 116 speed figure in the Blue Grass and Sharp Humor has only a 102 career-high figure.

But you can't just go by the numbers. Just about any book that discusses speed figures and speed handicapping concedes that horse races cannot always be boiled down to mere numbers.

Nor can you automatically write off the fast horses as destined to "kill one another off" when the front end is loaded with speed. A stalker or even a closer is not a sure-fire winner in these cases. We defer to the book, Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies:

"Sometimes you see the speed of the speed emerge from a race full of front runners. One horse bolts to the front and takes all the heart out of the other front runners. For that speed horse to win, he has to bottom out the field, meaning he goes so fast early that he takes all the starch out of the rest of the field too."

Glimmerglass
May. 2, 2006, 02:57 PM
A study in contrasts, as the two horses have been all along ...

Tuesday's workouts on the sloppy Churchill surface:


The wet track didn't alter LAWYER RON's regular training schedule. The Arkansas Derby winner came out at his regular time just before 8:00 a.m. and after jogging around to the finish line and standing for several minutes galloped a vigorous two miles. The one new wrinkle a change in equipment with Lawyer Ron appearing to be wearing an overcheck bit to help give exercise rider Betsy Couch a little extra control over a horse who nearly ran off with her the previous morning. Despite the change, remained on the muscle again galloping with his mouth open and head cocked to the inside for nearly the entire two miles.

-- vs ---

The condition of the racetrack wasn't much better following the renovation break. As a result trainer Michael Matz took the more conservative approach, electing to jog BARBARO two miles with a brief visit to the paddock along the way. Barbaro was bucking and playing and wanting to do more despite being kept in hand by both Matz aboard his stable pony along with exercise rider Peter Brette.

source: DRF 5-2-06 (http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/clocker/clocker.html)

Glimmerglass
May. 2, 2006, 11:32 PM
As is the duty of estate executor - in this case Lawyer Ron Bamberger - he has a duty to maximize the interest of the heirs. Selling the namesake horse pre-Derby sadly makes sense. I wouldn't be shocked if Jess Jackson was the interested buyer ;)

DRF 5/2/06 "Lawyer Ron may be sold before Derby" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/74149.html)


Ron Bamberger, executor of the estate for the breeder and owner James T. Hines Jr., said Tuesday that serious negotiations were ongoing for the sale of Lawyer Ron, one of the favorites for the 132nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

The deal had not been finalized as of late Tuesday afternoon, said Bamberger, who declined to identify the potential buyer.

Other sources, including one prominent member of the bloodstock industry, said that the negotiations were close to being concluded. These sources, who spoke on a condition of anonymity, said that the new owner would buy a majority interest before the Derby but that Lawyer Ron would race on Saturday in the Hines family's blue-and-white silks. For races thereafter, the colt would carry the silks of his new owner.

Derby entries close about 11 a.m. on Wednesday, according to Doug Bredar, the Churchill Downs racing secretary. Post positions will be drawn Wednesday in downtown Louisville.

Lawyer Ron is named after Bamberger, a longtime attorney for Hines. Hines, an Owensboro, Ky., businessman, drowned in a swimming pool accident at his farm in Utica, Ky., on Feb. 21. He was 69. Hines owned a tool-and-die company, a stamping company, and electronics and charter jet businesses.

There has been speculation about the possibility of a sale of Lawyer Ron as the Hines estate goes through probate, a development first reported by The Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer. Members and friends of the Hines family said the farm and racing stable is being downsized and may eventually be liquidated.

Lawyer Ron, a Langfuhr colt trained by Bob Holthus, enters the Derby off six straight wins, most recently a 2 3/4-length victory in the April 15 Arkansas Derby. He has won 7 of 14 races for career earnings of $1,220,008. All seven wins have come on dirt; he is 0 for 7 on turf and the artificial surface Polytrack.

John McKee, the colt's regular rider, will be aboard again Saturday.

It is unusual for a horse to change hands so close to the Derby, although four years ago The Thoroughbred Corp. purchased the eventual Derby winner, War Emblem, from Russell Reineman for a reported $1 million about two weeks before the race.

Last week, a minority interest in Sharp Humor, another Kentucky Derby prospect, was sold to WinStar Farm. Primary ownership of Sharp Humor, the Florida Derby runner-up, remains with Purdedel Stable.

Glimmerglass
May. 3, 2006, 01:06 PM
From the Andy Beyer on-line chat (DRF) on Tuesday (http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/chat_beyer.html):


Q: Andy,Can Smith win it again with Flashy Bull your thoughts?

Andy Beyer: You've got to be kidding. I'm not sure Smith could win if he were on the reincarnation of Secretariat. He was riding so poorly at Gulfstream this winter that the strongest handicapping angle at the meeting was "Mike Smith off."

OUCH! :)

Anyhow his choices for this year's Derby ...


I'm going to put my emphasis on A. P. Warrior, Point Determined and Barbaro. I'll probably play the race with the premise that one of those three has to win. I'll throw out all the speed horses. I'll throw out Brother Derek. If I sue Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron, it will be in a very small way.

Glimmerglass
May. 3, 2006, 05:47 PM
Two privately made promotion videos for the Derby. I don't know the person who put these together but I think they did a pretty good job!

Video: "Kentucky Derby 132 - History - Teaser 1" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rLDC98z-wI&search=kentucky%20derby)

Teaser #2 was pulled although I thought it the better of the two.

Glimmerglass
May. 3, 2006, 08:13 PM
It all comes down to this:

Post Horse / Jockey / Trainer / Morning Line Odds
1. Jazil / Fernando Jara / Kiaran McLaughlin 30-1
2. Steppenwolfer / Robby Albarado / Danny Peitz 30-1
3. Keyed Entry / Pat Valenzuela / Todd Pletcher 30-1
4. Sinister Minister / Victor Espinoza / Bob Baffert 12-1
5. Point Determined / Rafael Bejarano / Bob Baffert 12-1
6. Showing Up / Cornelio Velasquez / Barclay Tagg 20-1
7. Bob and John / Garrett Gomez / Bob Baffert 12-1
8. Barbaro / Edgar Prado / Michael Matz 4-1
9. Sharp Humor / Mark Guidry / Dale Romans 20-1
10. A.P. Warrior / Corey Nakatani / John Shirreffs 15-1
11. Sweetnorthernsaint / Kent Desormeaux / Michael Trombetta 10-1
12. Private Vow / Shaun Bridgmohan / Steve Asmussen 50-1
13. Bluegrass Cat / Ramon Dominguez / Todd Pletcher 30-1
14. Deputy Glitters / Jose Lezcano / Tom Albertrani 50-1
15. Seaside Retreat / Patrick Husbands / Mark Casse 50-1
16. Cause to Believe / Russell Baze / Jerry Hollendorfer 50-1
17. Lawyer Ron / John McKee / Robert Holthus 4-1
18. Brother Derek / Alex Solis / Dan Hendricks 3-1
19. Storm Treasure / David Flores / Steve Asmussen 50-1
20. Flashy Bull / Mike Smith / Kiaran McLaughlin 50-1

My comments, for what it's worth, those horses who perhaps can be weeded out from bets: (Of course I could be wrong :)

"toss out" Showing Up as it would amazing but the odds are simply against a colt who would be making start #4 to win this; "toss out" Seaside Retreat as I've never seen an exceptional performance yet and he was a few country miles behind in his last race. Bluegrass Cat and Private Vow have in 2006 never risen to anything near expectations. Deputy Gliters is a horse that almost seems invisible in this who field - barely a mention of him or really even Storm Treasure for that matter. Flashy Bull I can recall being an also ran at best in some preps.

Who do I like now, aside from the "top three" with strong nods to Lawyer Ron and Barbaro? To cover bets I'd also look at

A.P. Warrior, Point Determined, Bob and John to win
Steppenwolfer and Jazil for something in the money.

Glimmerglass
May. 3, 2006, 11:47 PM
Sometimes the horse with the best Beyer figure for speed does triumph in the Derby - see at bottom - but not always; below is 2006's field

Highest Beyers for the Derby field (DNW = did not win a prep)

Derby PP / Horse / Beyer / Race @ Distance
1. Jazil = 97 (DNW)
2. Steppenwolfer = 94 (DNW)
3. Keyed Entry = 110 Hutcheson Stakes @ 7 1/2 f
4. Sinister Minister = 116 Blue Grass Stakes @ 1 1/8 m
5. Point Determined = 103 (DNW)
6. Showing Up = 99 Lexington Stakes @ 1 1/16 m
7. Bob and John = 93 Wood Memorial @ 1 1/8 m
8. Barbaro = 103 Florida Derby @ 1 1/8 m
9. Sharp Humor = 97 Swale Stakes @ 7f
10. A.P. Warrior = 101 San Felipe Stakes @ 1 1/16 m
11. Sweetnorthernsaint = 109 Illinois Derby @ 1 1/8 m
12. Private Vow = 96 (DNW)
13. Bluegrass Cat = 96 Sam F. Davis Stakes @ 1 1/16 m
14. Deputy Glitters = 102 Tampa Bay Derby @ 1 1/16 m
15. Seaside Retreat = 86 (DNW)
16. Cause to Believe = 98 California Derby @ 1 1/16 m
17. Lawyer Ron = 106 Risen Star @ 1 1/16 (note most recent race was a 98)
18. Brother Derek = 108 Santa Anita Derby @ 1 1/8 m
19. Storm Treasure = 95 (DNW)
20. Flashy Bull = 94 (DNW)

From Andy Beyer:


Best Beyers and the Derby

Sinister Minister's 116 in the Blue Grass Stakes is the best Beyer Speed Figure this year in a Kentucky Derby prep race. Here are the horses with the best Beyers in preps since 1992 and their Derby finishes (with $2 win mutuels):

YEAR HORSE BEYER DERBY FINISH

2005 Bellamy Road 120 5th
2004 Read the Footnoes 113 7th
2003 Empire Maker 111 2nd
2002 War Emblem 112 1st ($43)
2001 Millennium Wind 114 11th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 111 1st ($6.60)
1999 Charistmatic 108 1st ($64.60)
(tied) Excellent Meeting 108 5th
(tied) General Challenge 108 11th
1998 Indian Charlie 112 3rd
1997 Silver Charm 110 1st ($10)
(tied) Free House 110 3rd
1996 Unbridled's Song 114 5th
1995 Serena's Song 114 16th
1994 Holy Bull 115 12th
1993 Diazo 109 5th
1992 Lil E. Tee 107 1st ($35.60)
(tied) Pine Bluff 107 5th
(tied) Devil His Due 107 12th

Plumcreek
May. 4, 2006, 12:22 AM
Thanks for all your posts, Glimmerglass!

Glimmerglass
May. 4, 2006, 09:03 AM
Brother Derek the front-running colt was installed as the 3-1 favorite Wednesday despite drawing the No. 18 post position. Only one horse has ever won the Derby from that spot -- Gato Del Sol in 1982.

Yikes!

Also, a story on an 88 yr old jockey's first return since his win at just 18 in 1936 on Bold Venture:

Associated Press 5-4-06 "Jockey's awaited return; Oldest living winner is back, 70 years later" (http://www.berkshireeagle.com/sports/ci_3783256)


Hanford and two other jockeys in the 1936 Derby received 15-day suspensions. That prevented him from riding Bold Venture for trainer Max Hirsch two weeks later in the Preakness. He was replaced by George Woolf of Seabiscuit fame, who won. Bold Venture then lost in the Belmont Stakes.

"The thing that got me, and still does to this day, is I never had a hearing of any kind," he said. "I never had a chance to defend myself and I've always felt that's not right."

For a man of 88 he looks extremely fit! Image: Ira "Babe" Hanford, Wed May 3rd (http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site101/2006/0504/20060504_042656_HanfordB.jpg)

An aside, as there has been little mention of the Kentucky Oaks, the one-time favorite for this year's running - Foklore - has been retired due to a stress fracture :(

Drvmb1ggl3
May. 4, 2006, 10:56 AM
An aside, as there has been little mention of the Kentucky Oaks, the one-time favorite for this year's running - Foklore - has been retired due to a stress fracture :(

Pity the Oaks gets overlooked in the run up to the big one. A change of date might not be a bad idea, maybe even putting it on the undercard of the Derby. Actually a Distaff Triple Crown that mirrored the regular TC, with the races held the same days as the KD, Preak, BS might be a nice feature.
The existing Fillies TC has been all but forgotten at this point.

findeight
May. 4, 2006, 10:58 AM
Well, I spoke to my vet, he was just back from Churchill on some business or other. He had a tip for me.

His source? The guy who handles that blanket of roses every year. Quite scientific.

He said A.P. Warrior. The more I research, the better he looks. can't help noticing the odds on that one getting shorter here as we get closer.

My question is, given BBs talent for prepping them exactly right for this race to the point of winning with some less then stellar colts, which one to use??? Can't leave him out of any wagering.

Weather will be in the 60s, been raining so the track will not be dead fast but it won't be deep either, unless they get a gully washer.

Somebody help me out here.

Drvmb1ggl3
May. 4, 2006, 11:12 AM
Well, I spoke to my vet, he was just back from Churchill on some business or other. He had a tip for me.

His source? The guy who handles that blanket of roses every year. Quite scientific.

He said A.P. Warrior. The more I research, the better he looks. can't help noticing the odds on that one getting shorter here as we get closer.

My question is, given BBs talent for prepping them exactly right for this race to the point of winning with some less then stellar colts, which one to use??? Can't leave him out of any wagering.

Weather will be in the 60s, been raining so the track will not be dead fast but it won't be deep either, unless they get a gully washer.

Somebody help me out here.

This year's KD is a tough one. You can make a great argument for any of 6-7 horses, all very impressive. When it gets like that I always stay away from the betting window. Should be a cracker of a race though.

As to which of the BB horses, I'd have to go with Sinister Minister, he seems to be peaking at just the right time and his Bluegrass was explosive.

Glimmerglass
May. 4, 2006, 11:13 AM
Pity the Oaks gets overlooked in the run up to the big one. A change of date might not be a bad idea, maybe even putting it on the undercard of the Derby. Actually a Distaff Triple Crown that mirrored the regular TC, with the races held the same days as the KD, Preak, BS might be a nice feature.

They could move it, but despite the reduced buzz factor last year they had record setting attendance: 111,243; sales might have been slightly influenced by Sweet Catomine as she was debated as a possible Oaks runner instead of Derby after the Santa Anita but of course all that ended quickly.

I was a bit hard pressed to recall the winner for last year (it was Summerly with Jerry Bailey, up) but in 2004 they did have two very noted contenders: Madacap Escapade and Ashado.

Police!

No not the band Jerry Moss signed or the front man's son's name whom he used for last year's winner ;) Rather like last year each Derby horse will get their own police officer:


Enhanced security for Kentucky Derby horses
By Associated Press (http://sports.bostonherald.com/otherSports/view.bg?articleid=137918&format=text)
Thursday, May 4, 2006 - Updated: 10:07 AM EST

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Churchill Downs will again institute enhanced, round-the-clock security to protect every horse running in the Kentucky Derby.

Starting Thursday and continuing through post time Saturday, each stall will be assigned an individual security officer. Jefferson County Sherrif’s deputies will stand guard from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Other security personnel will be assigned for the remaining hours.

On race day, a deputy will accompany each horse wherever it goes in a continuation of a policy instituted last year.

“The Derby is the biggest event in American racing and it is essential that participating owners, trainers and Derby fans who are watching and wagering on the race have the highest level of confidence in the integrity of our great race and the performance of these wonderful horses,” said Churchill Downs president Steve Sexton.

Glimmerglass
May. 4, 2006, 11:31 AM
Weather will be in the 60s, been raining so the track will not be dead fast but it won't be deep either, unless they get a gully washer.

The track very easily could be Hawthorne-esq, meaning just like the surface that Sweetnorthernsaint put in a fine effort on. Although the competition found in the Illinois Derby was not overly tough - it also lacked speed and closers - so you can't necessarily apply his effort in that G2 race to what he'll do in the Derby.

I concur that AP Warrior looks good and he'll be a pick for me. If he's still going off at 15-1 (doubt it) I'll be delighted :)

Winning wire to wire with decent but not crazy fast speed worked fine for the big filly, Winning Colors (Gary Steven's up) in 1988. As much as I'd love to see a Sinister Minister just haul like a demon cast from hell I just think the pace will be too much.

As cited by Andy Beyer: When the first quarter of the Derby is run faster than 22.60 seconds, every horse near the lead will collapse and horses coming from out of the clouds will dominate the race at the end. I have a hunch we'll be seeing a pace faster than 22.60. if the track is fast Saturday.

findeight
May. 4, 2006, 11:31 AM
I loved SMs Bluegrass as well, but remember Bellamy Road:no:

He'll have to get going quick out of that #4 slot which is no problem..but how far can he go?
And did that 116 Beyer 2 weeks ago take a toll?

:confused:

Glimmerglass
May. 4, 2006, 01:13 PM
I loved SMs Bluegrass as well, but remember Bellamy Road

Not to make things any less clear but Bellamy Road, it was suggested, actually raced in the Derby with an injury unknown to Nick Zito.


Zito theorized that the injury ["popped splint"] might have been developing before the Derby, and was aggravated during the race. (ESPN 5/12/06 (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2057177))

As far as the general public knows Sinister Minister is at the peak of health and without any known soreness, etc. However we could be looking at a bit of a bounce. See comment: "Baffert said Sinister Minister was pretty tired for a few days after his Blue Grass win." (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/tc/contenders/detail.asp?ContenderID=1631)

We'd all expect a horse to be tired after that effort but I don't recall reports of Bellamy Road being anything but frisky after his blow out.

Just food for thought ;)

Glimmerglass
May. 4, 2006, 01:24 PM
DRF 5/4/06 "Stonewall buys majority interest in Lawyer Ron" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/74196.html)


A majority interest in Lawyer Ron, one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, has been sold to Stonewall Stallions of central Kentucky, but the colt will race in the name and silks of his breeder and owner, the estate of James T. Hines Jr., in the 132nd Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

A formal announcement was expected on Thursday afternoon, according to principals for both sides who declined to disclose full terms of the deal on Thursday morning. Industry experts with some knowledge of the sale estimated Lawyer Ron's value at roughly $6 million.


After his racing career, Lawyer Ron will stand at stud at Stonewall, the former E.K. Gaylord property known as Gaillardia Farm near Midway, Ky. Stonewall stands six other stallions: Doneraile Court, Leroidesanimaux, Medaglia d'Oro, Value Plus, Marquetry, and Unforgettable Max.

http://www.stonewallstallions.com/

Glimmerglass
May. 4, 2006, 02:25 PM
Bailey likes two horses for Derby


Retired Hall of Fame jockey and current racing analyst Jerry Bailey, a two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, was on the Churchill Downs backside Wednesday morning, sharing his thoughts on Saturday's 132nd Run for the Roses.

Bailey has some doubts about highly regarded Derby entrants Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Sweetnorthernsaint. Bailey said his pick is between Point Determined and Lawyer Ron. - DRF 5-4-06 (http://www.drf.com/news/article/74169.html)

Glimmerglass
May. 5, 2006, 01:29 AM
It seems these days more then ever the Kentucky Derby is the 'must have' race on the resume before cashing in on the really fat money - found in the breeding. However that contradicts reality with Derby winners and shed money:

Lex Herald-Leader May 5th "Derby winner not always super stud" (http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/horse_racing/14495893.htm)

excerpt


There are no guarantees in the breeding shed," Taylor said. "You can do everything right on the racetrack, but if mother nature is not on your side, you're just spinning your wheels."

Leading sires

Finish in Sire, stud fee Kentucky Derby

Storm Cat, $500,000 Did not run
A.P Indy, $300,000 Did not run
Kingmambo, $300,000 Did not run
Giant's Causeway, $300,000 Did not run
Unbridled's Song, $150,000 5th, 1996
Distorted Humor, $150,000 Did not run
Dynaformer, $125,000 Did not run
Seeking the Gold, $125,000 7th, 1988
Fusaichi Pegasus, $125,000 1st, 2000
Awesome Again, $125,000 Did not run

Derby winners at stud

2005: Giacomo (still running, will retire to Adena Springs)
2004: Smarty Jones (stands at Three Chimneys Farm)
2003: Funny Cide (gelding, still running)
2002: War Emblem (stands at Shadai Stallion Station in Japan)
2001: Monarchos (stands at Claiborne Farm)
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (stands at Ashford Stud)
1999: Charismatic (stands at Shizunai Stallion Station in Japan)
1998: Real Quiet (stands at Regal Heir Farms, Pa.)
1997: Silver Charm (stands at Japan Racing Association)
1996: Grindstone (stands at Overbrook Farm)
1995: Thunder Gulch (stands at Ashford Stud)
1994: Go for Gin (stands at Bonita Farm, Maryland)
1993: Sea Hero (stands in Turkey)
1992: Lil E Tee (stands at Old Frankfort Stud)
1991: Strike the Gold (stands in Turkey)
1990: Unbridled (stood at Claiborne, died at 14 in 2001)
1989: Sunday Silence (died at 16 in 2002, leading sire of all time in Japan)
1988: Winning Colors (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnewsarchive/ttodaysnewsviewarchive.asp?ArchiveDate=2/24/2006#62393) (filly, lives at Gainesway Farm)
1987: Alysheba (stands in Saudi Arabia)
1986: Ferdinand (died in 2002 in Japan)
1985: Spend a Buck (died in 2002 at 20 in Brazil)
1984: Swale (died after Belmont)

Glimmerglass
May. 5, 2006, 12:55 PM
DRF 5-5-06 "Seaside Retreat is no 179-1 shot" (http://www.drf.com/news/article/74238.html)


Until 1997, the number of wagering interests in the Derby was limited to 12, with the formation of a mutuel field allowing for an excess of starters. From 1998 to 2000, the maximum number of interests was lifted to 14, after which the Kentucky Racing Commission changed its rules to permit every horse in the Derby field (limited to 20 starters) to be listed as separate interests.

Despite the mathematics that have markedly increased the probability of a Derby starter being sent away a huge longshot in a 20-horse field, there have been only two starters to be sent away at higher than 99-1, and both were in the 2001 field: Arctic Boy (12th at 101-1) and Startac (10th at 102-1).

The record for the longest shot in Derby history is Royal Shuck, who was 179-1 when finishing 12th and last behind Northern Dancer in 1964. Casse, and most handicappers, believe that record is safe for another year, "but I'm sure it'll be broken some year soon because of the 20" wagering interests, said Casse.

William Farish Jr might not think Seaside Retreat deserves the uber long odds but it seems kinda clear to others ;) A career best Beyer fig of just 86, 5th place in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, a 2nd in the Lane's End (behind fellow shocker, With A City, on the polytrack) and then beating by good in the Toyota Blue Grass taking 6th and losing by over 32 lengths. It suggests that he'll go off well near the century mark ...

Glimmerglass
May. 5, 2006, 02:08 PM
A fairly keen little resource with almost all you need to know:

New York Post Bettor's Guide to the 132nd KY Derby - jpg (http://www.nypost.com/sports/kentuckyderby2006.jpg)

Glimmerglass
Dec. 27, 2007, 11:40 PM
digging this thread well out of the archives owing to a runner on Saturday Dec 29th, 2007:

MSNBC/DRF 12-27-07 "2006 Kentucky Derby favorite returns" (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22413107/)


Where does a beaten Kentucky Derby favorite go for the rest of his career? Apparently a lot of places.

Sweetnorthernsaint races at his seventh different track and returns to Kentucky for the first time since his seventh-place finish as the 5-1 favorite behind Barbaro in the 2006 Derby. He will be the solid favorite Saturday in the $50,000 Holiday Cheer at Turfway Park.

Mike Trombetta will be looking to punctuate a breakthrough year in his 19-year training career when he sends Sweetnorthernsaint from Maryland for the 4-year-old gelding's first start in seven months.

Barnfairy
Dec. 30, 2007, 01:42 AM
Hmmm, proves a little rusty with a sixth place finish (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/TP122907USA11.pdf)...or maybe he didn't like the synthetic?

lizathenag
Dec. 30, 2007, 11:11 AM
He made $500 for his efforts.