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Threeday33
Oct. 28, 2009, 09:36 PM
I looked for a thread on this, but couldn't find one. Does anyone have any early KY Derby thoughts...who are the top 2 year olds this year who might be looking at the Derby next Spring? Which unraced 2 year olds look promising to you?

Glimmerglass
Oct. 29, 2009, 12:31 AM
Just my experience but in the last few years any horse that is doing very well and making a name for himself - like DWL's Dublin or Baffert's Lookin At Lucky - won't be in the Kentucky Derby or the favorite even if he (or she) makes the field.

Far too many early bloomers pop up now who just aren't around when the battle starts. Injury, proven to be suited to sprinting, turf runners, acquired by foreign owners who ship them overseas to train and never to come back ready for the KY Derby .... etc.

The Las Vegas book with advanced wagering doesn't come out until the early December time frame. With the changing landscape of Derby starters - let alone winners - clearly its more risky then ever to cite any names in 2009 for the 2010 edition.

Threeday33
Oct. 29, 2009, 09:23 AM
I agree with you about the early favorites never panning out. There is future betting now (even though it is a total crapshoot), however. I am especially curious of any unraced 2 year olds that anyone knows or is going to watch closely this spring to see how they do once they start. I like to have something to root for over the winter/spring!

Zevida
Oct. 29, 2009, 05:34 PM
I'm keeping an eye on American Lion - nicely bred Tiznow colt who just broke his maiden at Keeneland impressively! He's heading out to California now to join Harty's barn and perhaps behind pointed to the (formerly) Hollywood Futurity.

Glimmerglass
Nov. 30, 2009, 12:39 PM
Anyone see the replay of Buddy's Saint in the Grade 2 $200k Remsen Stakes on Saturday (11/28)? Looking rather convincing in making it happen. The quip from his trainer:


Asked if he felt he had a Derby horse in his barn, Bruce Levine, trainer of Buddy's Saint, said "Yes, I do. Believe me, I wouldn't trade places with anybody in America."

Video Replay: Aqueduct Nov 28, 2009 96th running of the Remsen Stakes @ 1 1/8 mi (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcWilPUcSM0)

Not sure if he just had a single wow race or this is the start of something bigger but also check out Super Saver who set a stakes record at Churchill Downs the same day - Nov 28th - in the $191,250 Kentucky Jockey Club:

Video Replay: Churchill Nov 28, 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club @ 1 1/16 mi (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SX6GfU_tdoY)

Calvin Borel up on Super Saver for trainer Todd Pletcher (http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20091128/SPORTS08/911280370/Super+job+by+Borel+on+Super+Saver) - a very rare combo - set a stakes record by covering the distance in 1:42.83 :


“He's a colt that's shown a lot of promise from early on, and he's starting to put things together,” Pletcher said by phone. “ … I was a little concerned that the fractions were fast, but Calvin is riding so well right now you've got to trust a guy's judgment when he's in the zone like he is.”

Borel said the main thing Pletcher stressed was to get Super Saver to switch leads earlier.

“We went pretty fast, and I think he's just a racehorse,” he said. “Because when I picked him up about the sixteenth pole, he re-broke.”

Also props to last-to-second in that Kentucky Jockey Club race for William's Kitten who inhaled the field but couldn't catch the re-breaking Super Saver. Ken Ramsey who owns Williams Kitten said he'll use a rabbit next for 'Kitten':


“Never will I send my horse to post with a lone speed without a ‘rabbit,' ” vowed his owner, Ken Ramsey, who with wife Sarah won yet another meet title. “We will have two rabbits in with William's Kitten every time he goes from now on.”

event1
Nov. 30, 2009, 01:15 PM
I second Buddy's Saint...saw the Remsen and was very impressed!:yes: He's the one I'll be watching.

KBEquine
Dec. 1, 2009, 09:28 AM
I second Buddy's Saint...saw the Remsen and was very impressed!:yes: He's the one I'll be watching.

I watched the Remsen Stakes and agree, although I also think IF Homeboykris, who faded to next-to-last in the race after fighting his jockey (Edgar Prado) & battling for the early lead, learns to rate (and to handle the turns better), he'll also be one to watch.

The one obvious recent exception to Glimmerglass's observation that precocious 2 y.o.s rarely make the Derby - Street Sense.

Glimmerglass
Dec. 3, 2009, 08:00 PM
Tomorrow night (Fri Dec 4th) will be that annual unique bull-ring running of the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot for 2-yr olds which will easily vault someone into being financially qualified for the Kentucky Derby. I'm hard pressed to think however of a success story with a winner from this race in the triple crown chase ....

Brisnet 12-3-09 "Delta Jackpot Stakes; $750,000 @ 1 1/16 mi, (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=17080)

The small field is expected to be dominated "gate to wire" by Pletcher trainee 'Rule' - but that's why the run the races


PP HORSE - Jockey -Weight
1 GALLANT GENT - DESORMEAUX K J 119
2 UH OH BANGO - CORBETT G W 119
3 RULE - VELAZQUEZ J R 119
4 GRAND SLAM - SELLERS S J 119
5 LITIGATION RISK - CASTELLANO J J 117
6 BENCH THE JUDGE - MELANCON G 119
7 MY TIME TO STAR - ALBARADO R J 119
8 OAK MOTTE - SAENZ DIEGO 119

ccpp
Dec. 3, 2009, 10:58 PM
American Lion

Super Saver

Glimmerglass
Dec. 5, 2009, 05:25 PM
Brisnet 12-3-09 "Delta Jackpot Stakes; $750,000 @ 1 1/16 mi, (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=17080)

The small field is expected to be dominated "gate to wire" by Pletcher trainee 'Rule' - but that's why the run the races

Rule won but only by a neck over "Uh Oh Bango" although an excuse can be given for the sloppy track.

Video replay of the G3 Delta Jackpot Stakes (http://www.drf.com/replays/savedreplays.jsp?RACE=359)

Rule took home a fat $450,000 in graded money for the win which will assure him of a starting gate at the Kentucky Derby.

WinStar Stables is on an absolute roll right now with their fleet of horses taking early graded wins: these include the aforementioned Rule in the Delta as well as Super Saver's victory in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and American Lion's score in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue.

Glimmerglass
Dec. 9, 2009, 12:22 PM
A few more "to watch for" in 2010

12/09/09 "Soon-to-be 3-year-olds have plenty of potential" (http://www.saratogian.com/articles/2009/12/09/sports/doc4b1f274d03fa9381958715.txt)


Sidney’s Candy: Owned by Sid and Jenny Craig Trust; trained by John Sadler.

Middle of the Nite: Owned by West Point Thoroughbreds; trained by Tom Albertrani.

Moojab: Owned by Shadwell Stable; trained by Dan Peitz

Soldier Field: Owned by WinStar Farm; trained by Bill Mott

Drosselmeyer: Also, owned by WinStar Farm and trained by Mott

Take Turns: Owned by Pin Oak Stud; trained by Morris Nicks

Wow Wow Wow: Owned by Marylou Whitney Stable; trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Glimmerglass
Dec. 9, 2009, 03:24 PM
Steve Haskin tosses in his picks for some early Derby possibles ...

BloodHorse 12-9-09 'Ky. Derby Trail: December Doldrums' (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54335/ky-derby-trail-december-doldrums)

He tentatively puts forth a top 13


1-- Super Saver -- Talented, fast, outstanding pedigree; big score over the Churchill Downs track. Just needs to show he can rate off the pace.

2-- Lookin at Lucky -- His second in the BC Juvenile may have been the best performance of the year by a 2-year-old. His future is limitless.

3-- Buddy's Saint -- Beautiful-striding colt, push-button acceleration, bred to run all day. Needs to fill into his frame a little more.

4-- William's Kitten -- Spectacular move to win the off-the-turf Sunday Silence Stakes; ran big in Ky. Jockey Club and has two excellent efforts on dirt. Distance should be no problem.

5-- Dublin -- Champagne can be excused if he runs back to his Hopeful form.

6-- American Lion – He’s got the looks and the pedigree, but he still has some learning to do.

7-- Aikenite – Throw out the BC Juvenile; didn’t run that badly anyway on the Pro-Ride. Consistent closer, but female family will have to carry him if he hopes to get classic distances.

8-- Rule – He has a nice way of going and has the appearance of a class horse. He showed a lot of determination in the Delta Jackpot. Like Super Saver, it’s time to start rating off the pace.

9-- Vale of York – Godolphin will get another shot at developing a young horse in Dubai. Big question with him is the dirt, and he won’t get a chance to prove anything racing on Meydan’s synthetic surface.

10-- Piscitelli – Hasn’t gotten the credit he deserves for his huge effort in the BC Juvenile at 50-1. Despite being a stone closer in his previous starts, he set all the pace and was beaten only three-quarters of a length. Handles any kind of track and is bred to stay.

11-- Noble's Promise – Also ran big in the BC Juvenile after victory in the Breeders’ Futurity. Pedigree is loaded with speed on top and bottom, but tail-female line is all Darby Dan stamina, and he’ll need all of it to carry him 10 furlongs.

12-- Eskendereya – Still feel this is a top-class colt despite his poor performance in the BC Juvenile. Believe his Pilgrim victory on dirt is a better indicator of his ability.

12-- Get My Fix – Ran an excellent second in the Hollywood Prevue, but pedigree is not geared for 10 furlongs.

Glimmerglass
Dec. 17, 2009, 02:37 PM
Another nice maiden effort which may suggest something rather promising: Video: Race 7 Fair Grounds Dec 14, 2009 - Whiskey Bravo (#5) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUoi6SG_zk0)


A Smart Strike colt trained by Neil Howard, Bravo Whiskey raced in midpack before moving up before the quarter pole in the six-furlong race. Once jockey Curt Bourque moved him out for the stretch run, Bravo Whiskey quickly collared the leaders, and came home strongly to win by six lengths.

"He had trained okay," said Howard. "I was fairly optimistic about him, not to a point that I'm saying, 'Yee ha! We're on our way. He's a lovely colt, a lovely-bred colt - a little on the small side."

Howard said sore shins caused him to slow down with Bravo Whiskey over the summer. The colt pretty much was ready to run near the end of the Churchill meet, but Howard decided to take a little more time.

- Source: DRF Dec 16, 2009 (http://drf.com/news/article/109587.html)

Glimmerglass
Dec. 17, 2009, 02:54 PM
Future odds for the 2010 Derby:

Wynn|Encore Odds for 136th Kentucky Derby May 1, 2010 (http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2010_Derby_futures_12-07-09-Wynn.pdf) - as of 12/7/09

Some horses of note with (odds to win) current:
Aikenite: 75/1
American Lion: 25/1
Beethoven: 150/1
Connemara: 30/1 (who?)
Dublin: 60/1
Rule: 35/1
Super Saver: 50/1
Vale of York: 22/1
Beautician(F) at 225/1

Another odds source:
Lucky's Sports Book (Las Vegas) for 2010 Kentucky Derby odds (http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2010_Derby_futures_12-9-09-Luckys.pdf) - as of 12/9/0

Hot Dixie Chick (F) owned by Jess Jackson's wife: 100/1
Lentenor: 100/1
Lookin at Lucky: 16/1

NancyM
Dec. 18, 2009, 11:33 AM
How about Take Contol? AKA Valenzeri. Hasn't raced yet, but working nicely so far. He's been on my virtual stable after the yearling sale fiasco.

Rubyfree
Dec. 21, 2009, 02:45 PM
A lucky weekend for lucky names- the filly Blind Luck turned in a visually startling romp in the Starlet. Certainly an early Oaks pick- and someone is bound to start mentioning derby after that effort.

As an aside, I love her name- By Pollard's Vision out of Lucky One. Witty.

EightBelles134
Dec. 21, 2009, 03:12 PM
Aikenite
Eskendreya
and i can't count out Lentenor..ive been VERY impressed with what i've seen from him

DLee
Dec. 26, 2009, 11:57 AM
A lucky weekend for lucky names- the filly Blind Luck turned in a visually startling romp in the Starlet. Certainly an early Oaks pick- and someone is bound to start mentioning derby after that effort.

As an aside, I love her name- By Pollard's Vision out of Lucky One. Witty.

I just watched her win on Thoroughbred Week, wow!

Also, (how's this for vague) just saw a colt finish a close second in some race, and his name had "Texas" in it, that's all I can remember, but I thought he was totally impressive!

olympicdreams04
Dec. 26, 2009, 03:39 PM
I am not impressed w/Aikenite. But three other Dogwood horses have my interest, as I broke two of them. Wildlee Special, who scratched out of the CashCall Futurity is one to watch for sure. Hell of a game horse. River Oaks, a Distorted Humor o/o Lakeway, just absolutely stunned me. Late bloomer who doesn't have all the pieces together yet, but one to watch for sure. As far as fillies go, Touching Beauty is a hell of a horse, filly or colt, but is very slighty of build and long in the pasterns. If she stays sounds, she an oaks contender for sure.

DLee
Dec. 26, 2009, 05:26 PM
Found it. Big Texas Daddy.

Glimmerglass
Dec. 31, 2009, 04:22 PM
Take Control's maiden effort at Santa Anita will pop him into the early picks race. Sired by 1992 Horse of the Year AP Indy and dam 2002 Horse of the year Azeri you'd think the kid was almost as certain to get the track as a Bush kid would get into Yale ;)

Video replay here: Take Control maiden Santa Anita 12-30-09 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRMGN8-pZZU) - last to first win by 1 1/2 lengths, covering the distance in 1:37.64

It was good but it was on synthetic and show me a Kentucky Derby winner from the West Coast since the surface mandate who loved the stuff ...

Take Control is not listed as a wagering option in the Las Vegas futures bets as of yet.

As an aside another Bob Baffert enjoyed 2-yr old runner Tiny Woods (who is listed at 300-1 and is small) did go wire to wire on the same day as Take Control did in a 6 furlong race in 1:08.49 ... he is now from 4 lifetime starts sporting 2 victories and $65,200 in ungraded earnings. Oh and who did Tiny beat? One of the other "ones to watch for" the road to the Derby: Sidney’s Candy ;) And it wasn't the first time the Jenny Craig Candy horse was beaten by Tiny as he did it at Del Mar July 25th too.

Still Bob Baffert thinks Tiny is likely going to be a sprinter ...

Glimmerglass
Jan. 1, 2010, 04:22 PM
Another list to consider ...

Voice-Tribune, CD's John Asher, Dec 30, 2009, "An Early Peek at Derby 136" (http://www.voice-tribune.com/index.cfm?action=app.showDetail&pageid=203&item=1710)

abridged and trained noted where cited by Asher


1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY (trained by Bob Baffert)
2. WALKING THE BEACH (trained by Bret Calhoun)
3. SUPER SAVER (trained by Todd Pletcher)
4. LOST APTITUDE (trained by Dale Romans)
5. BUDDY’S SAINT
6. WORLDLY (trained by Louisville-born Paul McGee)
7. FLY DOWN (trained by Nick Zito)
8. RULE
9. NOBLE’S PROMISE (trained by Ken McPeek)
10. JACKSON BEND (trained by Nick Zito)

Interestingly I didn't hear much of anything about Nick Zito's stable from any other would-be lists. He like Baffert and Lukas did however get to stock up on some top flesh from their mega-horse fund ("Legends") so one would think they should have a few worthy bullets ....

Derby contender watch for New Year's Day: $100,000 Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby at 1 1/8-mile. The first graded stakes race in 2010 for 3-yr olds this should be Dale Romans trained Lost Aptitude (see Asher's list above at #4) party however look for Cat Park, a homebred son of Tale of the Cat owned by George Strawbridge Jr., to maybe take another victory.

Cat Park ran down Lost Aptitude to post a one-length victory over a yielding course when the pair first met at Keeneland 10 weeks ago.

Full entries for the Calder Race Course based race (here) (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=17238) after making a return after a 1-year pause from the race calendar. Barbaro won this race as his launching pad to Louisville.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 8, 2010, 12:15 PM
Steve Haskin has a Derby list exclusively for horses who have not yet run in a stakes race: Bloodhorse "Derby Trail Opening Act" Jan 8, 2010 (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54711/kentucky-derby-trail-opening-act") ... although the names listed are not unlike those horses already reflect by Las Vegas with improved futures odds: Wynn|Encore Derby Futures as of 12-28-09 (http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2010_Derby_futures_12-28-09-Wynn.pdf) or the alternate bookmaker with KD future wagers: Lucky's Futures as of 01-05-10 (http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2010_Derby_futures_1-5-10-Luckys.pdf)

Among the names listed by Haskin are Dutrow horses (Rick and Tony, respectively):


7--Launch N Relaunch -- Gate scratch Jan. 7 will be a setback, timing-wise; had to lower him a few notches. Turned in a powerful stretch run going a mile in debut at Aqueduct for Rick Dutrow. By Harlan’s Holiday, out of female family loaded with tough, hard-knocking racehorses and stallions, most notably Nodouble, Verbatim, Relaunch, and In Reality.

8--Winslow Homer -- Unbridled’s Song colt has won his last two impressively for Tony Dutrow, including impressive maiden score at Saratoga; then romped by 12 1/2 in the mud at Philly Park.

Interest in the Oaks and Derby - if ticket sales are an indicator - could be even higher this year: special, and pricey, packages sold out in just 48 minutes (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=17274)


The limited number [3,000] of two-day ticket packages, which ranged in price from $172 for individual first floor grandstand bleacher seats to $6,390 for a six-seat box in the third floor clubhouse with daily access to the exclusive Secretariat Lounge, were made available exclusively at Churchill Downs' new online box office

1040farms
Jan. 9, 2010, 01:14 PM
I was lucky enough to get some of those tickets. I'm so excited to go! Did anyone else get any?

Glimmerglass
Jan. 9, 2010, 02:40 PM
by the way: here is the 2010 Kentucky Derby logo (http://www.derbyme.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Kentucky-Derby-136.jpg)

Whoever has done these is recent years is really big on the 'swish' facial expression of the horse and ears - or those who make the final pick seem to love that futuristic-esq look.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 9, 2010, 03:21 PM
Churchill and partner ups the ante for some horse to get into the Kentucky Derby ... after racing one week prior ;)

DRF Jan 9, 2010 (http://drf.com/news/article/110017.html)


Churchill Downs has doubled the purse of the Derby Trial and renamed it The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial, thanks to a new sponsorship from Roberta LaPenta, who raced The Cliff's Edge.

The Grade 3 'The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial' will be worth $200,000 when it is renewed at one mile on April 24, one week before the 136th Kentucky Derby. The race had been run at 7 1/2 furlongs the last three years but is being restored to its original distance.

The last runner of any note to come from the Trial was the blistering fast closer Don't Get Mad - in 2005 he came from dead last to win by 7-lengths under a ride by Gary Stevens (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E01EFD71E31F932A35756C0A9639C8B 63). Seven days later he finished a strong 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 11, 2010, 10:03 AM
Some good news for fans - it looks like NBC Sports (who is getting an Eclipse Award for their solid 2009 broadcast coverage) is going to try and re-acquire the right to air the entire Triple Crown races.

Thank goodness as breaking out the Belmont from the Preakness and Derby is not in the best interest of the fans or sport.

Also NBC is going to increase their 2010 road to the Kentucky Derby coverage with more prep races! Who knows maybe this will also mean NBC is mulling over taking back the Breeders Cup from ESPN when that contract is up too ...

New York Times Jan 11, 2010: NBC Will Televise Major Triple Crown Prep Races (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/11/sports/11racing.html)


Churchill Downs and NBC Sports are expected to announce Monday an agreement to broadcast six major prep races leading to the Kentucky Derby as part of a plan to attract casual fans as well as horseplayers. The move comes as NBC positions itself to win back the three legs of the Triple Crown in 2011.

The three one-hour broadcasts, two on NBC and one on USA Network, will include the Louisiana Derby, the Lane’s End Stakes, the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby.

Just as they did last year the Kentucky Oaks - unceremoniously dumped by ESPN last year almost on the eve of the race foolishly despite knowing Rachel Alexandra would be running - NBC's "Bravo!" channel will air it live instead of NBC affiliates. It was NBC's only option really as there was no chance in hell that their affiliates would've dropped their highly profitable local news at 5:30 pm on a Friday to show a horse race ;)

farmgirl88
Jan. 11, 2010, 10:54 AM
I like Lentenor too. I think he's ignored a lot as a racehorse and liked a lot for the fact that he looks just like barbaro out on the track. I think he's a really game runner with a lot of heart and just has some learning to do. He's a nicely conformed horse with great bloodlines and he's made a lot of progress over the past several months. i think theres many good things to come from him.

As for my other pick i really like Rule. He's a crafty horse with a lot of heart and he seems pretty mature compared to the rest of the field we've seen so far. I think he has a lot less learning to do compared to the others. He a wonderful looking horse and his record so far, has proved him to be a strong derby candidate,

Glimmerglass
Jan. 11, 2010, 04:40 PM
The Daily Racing Form 1-11-10 (http://drf.com/news/article/110034.html) has more info showing that had actions not been taken the number of prep-races on even basic-cable tv would've slim to none.

Churchill Downs is actually stepping up with the $$$ to make sure the product (even if its not a CD-owned track) is on a major network.


Liz Harris, a spokesperson for Churchill Downs, said that Churchill had secured the television rights to the races and would spend "up to $2 million" in production costs on the broadcasts. Over the past decade, most television productions of major Derby prep races had been co-funded by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association's television production arm, and those broadcasts typically appeared on ESPN.

However, ESPN's commitment to racing in the spring has begun to wane as the network seeks out highly rated programming while seeking to shift lower-rated broadcasts to its Internet platform. In addition, Harris said, Churchill believed that the broadcasts would not be co-funded by the NTRA this year.

"It recently became clear that they weren't going to" broadcast prep races, Harris said. "It was our understanding that the NTRA was not going to televise the races this year."

Keith Chamblin, a senior vice president for the NTRA, said the association had not planned to reach any production deals with ESPN on the prep races, citing Churchill's involvement this year.

"We knew there was a high degree of probability that [Churchill] was going to cover the races," Chamblin said. "We're delighted that the races will continue to be on television, and even more delighted that they will have a national platform, which has been a high priority for the racing industry."

Glimmerglass
Jan. 12, 2010, 12:14 PM
Not mentioned by others is maiden winner (but not a maiden runner) from a dead Aqueduct course on January 9, 2010 by Eightfiveinafifty who not only just won in a landslide, but went off at 1-4 .... more then a few people knew he was going to be dynamite.

Video replay - youtube - $40,000 maiden special 1-9-10 Aqueduct (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-zy8pf6Spg) - J F Chavez is up.

Note oddly the above video shows a length of just 34 seconds however not to worry the entire 1:30 or so duration is aired

How good was that effort?

From Steve Crist's blog at the DRF (http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2010/01/eighty.html):


The most impressive performance of the new year, however, belongs to Eightyfiveinafifty, who is officially on the Derby trail after a 17 1/4-length maiden victory at Aqueduct last Saturday that earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105.

Eightyfiveinafifty was a well-kept secret (i.e., 27-1) when trainer Gary Contessa unveiled him at Saratoga last Aug. 1. He dueled odds-on favorite Discreetly Mine into defeat through sensational fractions of 21.74 and 44.21, understandably tiring late to finish third in a race won by Dublin, who took the Hopeful in his next start.

A hock injury in the fall kept him Eightyfiveinafifty sidelined until [Jan 9], when he returned at 35 cents on the dollar and trounced a well-regarded Bobby Barbara firster and six others.

The Aqueduct inner track was slow on Saturday but consistently slow throughout the day, and Eightyfiveinafifty's big Beyer was legit: His 1:10.85 was nearly two full seconds faster than the next best of the day's three other sprint races, which fell right into line with his huge performance:

See also the article 1-12-10 "Contessa has big plans for Eightyfiveinafifty" (http://drf.com/news/article/110036.html)


Eightyfiveinafifty will make his next start Feb. 6 here in the $100,000 Whirlaway Stakes - a two-turn race at 1 1/16 miles - followed by the Grade 3, $250,000 Gotham on March 6, and, if worthy, the Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial over Aqueduct's main track on April 3.

"The Whirlaway I think will be a very easy race for him," Contessa said Monday by phone from his home in upstate New York. "Then we have our chance in the Gotham to get plenty of graded money to get in the Derby."

Glimmerglass
Jan. 13, 2010, 12:31 PM
Breeders Cup JV winner Vale of York who is now in Dubai could be a Derby entry but the track record of success of winters there and making it to Churchill not really great.

Per the Racing Post Jan 13, 2009 (http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/vale-of-york-could-head-for-the-kentucky-derby/671136/top/):


Godolphin's racing manager Simon Crisford said: "Vale Of York will possibly be aimed at the Kentucky Derby, depending on how he performs at the new Meydan racecourse and he will start off on the all-weather there."

The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs clashes with the Stanjames.com 2,000 Guineas - both falling on May 1 - but Vale Of York is not quoted for the Newmarket Classic.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 14, 2010, 06:35 PM
So I wonder how much the odds will now drop for Eightyfiveinafifty (the formal NYRA maiden win replay is here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7kleFc95ls&feature=sub)) with his future odds?

Per the Wynn|Encore Odds book futures with the KY Derby as of 1-11-10 (http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2010_Derby_futures_1-11-10-Wynn.pdf) the horse was pegged at 125 to 1 which is after watching that race not a bad little risk to take for a few bucks ;)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 16, 2010, 05:18 PM
A couple of Derby-trail runners going out today on the West Coast and thus synthetics:

At Santa Anita is the Grade 3 San Rafael (at a mile) with the very promising Bob Baffert-trained Conveyance. In this race he'll be trying two turns for the first time.

At Golden Gate Fields is the ungraded California Derby (at 1 1/16-mile) with Todd Pletcher trained and wagering ML favorite Connemara, who broke his maiden at Turfway Park and then won at Santa Anita.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 17, 2010, 02:20 PM
At Santa Anita is the Grade 3 San Rafael (at a mile) with the very promising Bob Baffert-trained Conveyance. In this race he'll be trying two turns for the first time.

Conveyance did win but Cardiff Giant (a one-time claimer) (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54853/conveyance-showcases-talent-in-san-rafael-win) gave him a handful and by no means was this a walk-over. Interestingly I wonder if Cardiff Giant (owned by M Stables) (http://horseracingnation.com/horse/Cardiff_Giant) is named for the famed internationally known hoax which later was owned by PT Barnum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardiff_Giant) and now resides in my hometown ;)

I always wanted to name a horse after the interesting hoax. Looks like that's no longer an option!


At Golden Gate Fields is the ungraded California Derby (at 1 1/16-mile) with Todd Pletcher trained and wagering ML favorite Connemara....

Not so much luck for Connemara despite being rode with everything Russ Baze could do in the stretch and salvaging barely 2nd. He went off at 7-10 and still couldn't overcome another former claimer Ranger Heartley (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54857/ranger-heartley-shows-grit-in-cal-derby) trained by John Saddler and rode by Julio Garcia.

Interestingly who owns Ranger Heartley now? Herb Albert.

He is the "A" in A&M records, just as Jerry Moss (of Zenyatta fame, et al) is the "M" of that famed former record label.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 19, 2010, 06:16 PM
Another publication with early Derby runners: Sports Network 1-19-2010 "An Early look at the 2010 Kentucky Derby" (http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/horse-racing/story/1433919.html)


The "big five" are Lookin At Lucky, Jackson Bend, Buddy's Saint, Super Saver and Noble's Promise. Those colts combined to win 17 of 25 races in 2009.

Right underneath the early favorites are many three-year-olds that have shown early promise including Uptowncharlybrown, Kettle River, American Lion, Take Control, Tiz Chrome, Eightyfiveinafifty and Conveyance.

Longshots that cannot be overlooked in the middle of January are Aikenite, Brake Lights, Schoolyard Dreams, Concord Point, Piscitelli, Tahitian Warrior and Winslow Homer.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 21, 2010, 12:38 AM
One very-expensive ($1.9M) purchase and kinda promising runner now off the trail: Take Control (trained by Bob Baffert) (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54942/take-control-off-derby-trail) has "shin problems".

Just twenty days ago or so ....


Take Control's maiden effort at Santa Anita will pop him into the early picks race. Sired by 1992 Horse of the Year AP Indy and dam 2002 Horse of the year Azeri you'd think the kid was almost as certain to get the track as a Bush kid would get into Yale ;)

Video replay here: Take Control maiden Santa Anita 12-30-09 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRMGN8-pZZU) - last to first win by 1 1/2 lengths, covering the distance in 1:37.64

It was good but it was on synthetic and show me a Kentucky Derby winner from the West Coast since the surface mandate who loved the stuff ...

As for Eightyfiveinafifty who could easily be this year's Mr. Fantasy, looking back at this time last year, and thus just a wow horse until the graded stakes races come up. However his works look good:

1-20-2010 did at the Big A inner track 5-furlongs in a wicked 59.41 seconds (http://drf.com/news/article/110246.html)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 21, 2010, 04:08 PM
One of the more interesting prep-races with more then just a two horses talked about as Derby prospect - the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park Saturday.

Some names of note in bold although I don't see anyone being a writeoff


$150,000 Holy Bull (Grade 3)
Gulfstream Park Sat Jan 23rd Race 9 @ 5:08 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 Mile on dirt

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Thank U Philippe (FL), E Castro, 116, M D Wolfson
2. Homeboykris (MD), E S Prado, 122, R E Dutrow Jr.
3. Litigation Risk (FL), L A Garcia, 116, R A Violette, Jr.
4. Piscitelli (KY), K J Desormeaux, 116, R W Sacco
5. William's Kitten (KY), J R Leparoux, 120, M J Maker
6. Winslow Homer (KY), R A Dominguez, 116, A W Dutrow
7. Wild Lime (KY), J Lezcano, 116, M J Trombetta
8. Aikenite (FL), J R Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher
9. Jackson Bend (FL), J Rose, 120, N P Zito

Sunny's Mom
Jan. 21, 2010, 11:03 PM
I like fillies. One of the Bloodhorse blogs featured a new filly christine Daae (named for the female lead in Phantom of the Opera). She had a really impressive maiden win!

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2010/01/20/could-christine-be-the-next-rachel.aspx

Will be interesting to see how she does in stakes company next race!

Glimmerglass
Jan. 22, 2010, 01:54 PM
I like fillies. One of the Bloodhorse blogs featured a new filly Christine Daae ....

Yep it was a nice effort with a good Beyer Speed Fig and I too will look for her next start. The Patrick Biancone trained runner (http://www.coolmore.com/news-article.php?id=8294) has a potential Grade 2 race up next in Feb.

What irked me with that Bloodhorse blog is that if you dare view this effort with some caution (considering dozens, upon dozens of horses have put in solid maiden wins to either wilt against better horses, get injured, or simply that was a fluke) and you are called out as being somehow ice cold if not a Rachel-hater. Both of which simply don't apply to me.

Rather I'm not going to be so wet-behind-the-ears as to point to every good filly start as "the next Rachel Alexandra". That is simply dumb and any new fan who does that should if anything become more appreciative of those horses like Rachel who are different ....

Glimmerglass
Jan. 22, 2010, 02:00 PM
The DRF (as does BH and TB Times, etc) has a nice Kentucky Derby prep-schedule web page with the replays, results, etc.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/preps.html

Glimmerglass
Jan. 22, 2010, 02:01 PM
The DRF (as does BH and TB Times, etc) has a nice Kentucky Derby prep-schedule web page with the replays, results, etc.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/preps.html

What's nice is they easily have the race chart available as well as the Beyer Speed Fig for the winner.

LaurieB
Jan. 22, 2010, 02:22 PM
Thanks Glimmer! That's a great resource. :)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 22, 2010, 02:51 PM
Thanks Glimmer! That's a great resource. :)

Np. Oddly though I don't see listed the Illinois Derby which was dropped from being G2 to G3 for 2010.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 22, 2010, 03:12 PM
A top 20 list from Dallas Fort-Worth Star Telegram's Gary West

Top 20 contenders on the road to the Triple Crown - January 21, 2010 (http://www.star-telegram.com/808/story/1913012.html)

(abridged - the link above goes to the article with added comments, sire, trainer, etc)


Rank, Horse Starts-1-2-3
1. Lookin at Lucky 6-5-1-0
2. Buddy’s Saint 3-2-1-0
3. Eskendereya 4-2-1-0
4. Tiz Chrome 2-2-0-0
5. Jackson Bend 6-5-1-0
6. Super Saver 4-2-1-0
7. Rule 5-3-1-1
8. Piscitelli 5-1-1-1
9. Conveyance 3-3-0-0
10. Concord Point 1-1-0-0
12. Dryfly 4-3-0-0
13. Winslow Homer
13. Maximus Ruler 2-1-0-1
14. Dublin 5-2-0-0
15. Tahitian Warrior
16. Moojab 1-1-0-0
17. Blind Luck (f) 6-4-1-1
18. Overcommunication 1-1-0-0
19. Bulldogger 1-1-0-0
20. Uptowncharlybrown 2-2-0-0

Glimmerglass
Jan. 23, 2010, 05:08 PM
A change in how the positions are drawn for the Kentucky Derby: ESPN 1-23-2010 "Derby's two-tier draw eliminated" (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=4851032)


Churchill Downs is scrapping the two-tiered post-position draw that has been used for the Kentucky Derby since 1998 and will revert to the traditional draw for the 136th running on May 1.

Churchill spokesman John Asher said Friday the decision was made primarily because network television coverage of pre-Derby races and events has been dramatically reduced within the last two years.


Asher said the 2010 draw will be held at the track, with television coverage possibly limited to local network affiliates.

So no more days of the trainer walking up and selection the position with a placard bearing the horse's name and silks into the position.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 23, 2010, 06:17 PM
$150,000 Holy Bull (Grade 3) @ Gulfstream Park

Final order of finish
1 - Winslow Homer (w/Ramon Dominguez)
2 - Jackson Bend (w/Jeremy Rose)
3 - William's Kitten (w/Julien Leparoux)

No real excuses for Jackson Bend (although he's already had 7 lifetime starts) while as noted with 'Homer' that he's run on four different tracks, four different states, and all kinds of conditions ...

Glimmerglass
Jan. 23, 2010, 07:35 PM
$100,000 LeComte S. (Grade 3) @ Fair Grounds

Final order of finish
1 - Ron the Greek
2 - Maximum Ruler
3 - Letsgetitonmon

Tom Amoss trained 'Ron the Greek' was nowhere to be found at the top of the stretch then suddenly like a switch was flipped he came from downtown to blow past the field down the middle of the track. It was a 'wow' close but good. 'Ron' has been running at places like Hoosier Park so his name popping up is well off the radar.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 25, 2010, 05:07 PM
Out of this weekend's prep races comes Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen for Jan 25, 2010 (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2010/01/25/title.aspx) - abridged


1. Buddy's Saint
2. Lookin at Lucky
3. Super Saver
4. Winslow Homer
5. Eskendereya
6. Interactif
7. William's Kitten
8. Jackson Bend
9. Rule
10. Tiz Chrome
11. Ron the Greek
12. American Lion

Glimmerglass
Jan. 27, 2010, 06:38 PM
Speed isn't a question with Eightyfiveinafifty but he showed it again today (1/27): working worked seven furlongs in 1:26.14 (http://drf.com/news/article/110396.html) - that is two-turns at the Big A ;)


Whirlaway Stakes at 1 1/16 mi is on Feb. 6. It drew 25 nominations, nine of them from trainer Todd Pletcher's stable.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 27, 2010, 06:44 PM
One less on the Derby trail although not due to injury ...

Marty Wolfson has nixed Thank U Philippe from being pointed to Churchill (http://drf.com/news/article/110405.html). He was however pleased with the 4th place finish by 'Philippe' in the Grade 3 Holy Bull .. less so with the jockey:


"Eddie [Castro] rode a horrible race," said Wolfson. "I couldn't believe he'd send him like he did, especially up along the dead rail. I thought the horse turned in a great effort considering what he was up against."

Wolfson said he would likely pass the 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth here on Feb. 20 with Thank U Philippe.

"He's not a Kentucky Derby horse," said Wolfson. "I don't think he'll get that far."

Glimmerglass
Jan. 27, 2010, 06:54 PM
An interesting Top 10 which puts Letenor in that grouping. Hmmm ....

John Piesen - Jan 27, 2010 (http://www.johnpiesen.com/)

1. Lookin at Lucky
2. Winslow Homer
3. Buddy's Saint
4. Noble's Promise
5. Jackson Bend
6. Eightyfiveinafifty
7. Lentenor
8. Ron the Greek
9. Dryfly
10. Uptowncharleybrown [sic]
Speaking of Uptowncharlybrown - bought for $57,000 - ESPN/NYT's Bill Finley has a piece on him (1/27/10) as being a feel-good contender (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=4859601) - excerpt


No one did this for the money. The owners -- 59 normal, everyday people -- put up their small amount of money because it gave them a glimmer of hope that they could achieve the impossible. They haven't done it yet, but Charly has them on the ride of a lifetime. And the best may be yet to come.

I have to say that Bill is forgetting last year with this remark: "... ['Charly'] might just turn out be the best feel-good story this game has produced in a long time." What about last year's General Quarters? A Derby and Preakness runner owned, managed, trained and cared for by a retired school teacher from Louisville, KY!

Glimmerglass
Jan. 28, 2010, 12:07 PM
It's an old school measuring stick but for those interested ... the 'Experimental Free Handicap' for this year's Oaks and Derby class (http://jockeyclub.com/experimental.asp) from the Jockey Club.

What is the EFH? It is the assigned handicap weights for a hypothetical race at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. (And the JC has been doing it every year since 1935.) Since the lists are assigned according to 2-year-old form exclusively you'd be reading tea-leaves beyond that for 3-yr old form ;)

How does a horse get on the EFH list? To be eligible, a 2-year-old had to finish in the top four in graded or non-restricted races in the United States with a value of at least $75,000.

Lookin At Lucky and Vale of York are atop the male Experimental roster for 2009 at 126-lbs each; from there it is Noble's Promise (124 pounds), Buddy's Saint (123), Pounced (122), Super Saver (122), and Piscitelli (120). Next among fillies after She Be Wild (123) and Blind Luck (123) are Hot Dixie Chick (121), Beautician (120), Negligee (120), and Tapitsfly (119)


The last Experimental highweight to win the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense, who topped the 2006 list before capturing the Derby the following spring.

The 126 pounds for males and 123 for fillies are the traditional standards for Experimental topweights.

Glimmerglass
Jan. 30, 2010, 02:08 AM
A nice little kicker that will likely boost the number of Fair Grounds-runners appearing in the Kentucky Derby line-up: KY Derby entry fees paid-for with W-P-S finishers (http://www.neworleans.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=319565&Itemid=578):


Any horse that starts in both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby and finishes among the top three in either race will have its $25,000 starting fee waived for the Kentucky Derby.

(The Fair Grounds in New Orleans is owned by Churchill Downs, so by common ownership it makes it easier to boost this "feeder" program)

Glimmerglass
Jan. 31, 2010, 09:17 PM
A couple of cool lists of would-be runners from a "Top 100" contenders:

Gary West Dallas Star-Telegram 1/31/10 "Top 100 on the road to the Triple Crown" (http://startelegramsports.typepad.com/west_points/2010/01/the-top-100-on-the-road-to-the-triple-crown.html)

Louisville Courier-Journal 1/31/10 "2010 Kentucky Derby: The leading 125 contenders" (http://www.courier-journal.com/article/99991310343)

How do they match up? Let's see where Cardiff Giant [10 lifetime starts 2-5-2 $76,998] appears, as:

Gary West (again as of 1/31): 87. Cardiff Giant, Yankee Gentleman, Jorge Periban: He has improved steadily since being claimed for $32,000 and could be good enough to make some noise in California.

Courier-Journal: Outside of the Top 50 and within the Alphabetical order for the "next 75 to watch"

WinterTriangle
Feb. 1, 2010, 03:37 AM
the 'Experimental Free Handicap' for this year's Oaks and Derby class[/url] from the Jockey Club.

Dr. Roman does a good job of explaining it, including why it is not as predictive as it once was, but some disagree.

One of the things I agree on is that "Two-year-olds that did not finish among the top four in open stakes races are ineligible for consideration", which I do also believe is a mistake.

Anyway, a good explanation here, as well as concept of Dual Qualifiers:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/dqs.htm


Good job keeping up with this stuff glimmerglass. I''lll have to post my top 25, I'm one of those derby nuts who starts early. Sometimes I don't even wager on the race, just like doing the research.

As for EFH, I thought it fun to compare the 2009 chart, and see who hit the trifectas in the TC races....EFH didn't seem to matter much:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2009/2009_classic_contenders.htm

Glimmerglass
Feb. 1, 2010, 11:09 AM
Good job keeping up with this stuff glimmerglass. I''lll have to post my top 25, I'm one of those derby nuts who starts early. Sometimes I don't even wager on the race, just like doing the research.

Thanks for the links with Dr. Roman - I do think its a measurement of some value although as we all know no one tool will get the perfect answer.

I found it exceptionally odd that the Derby draw "show" (yes, the staged dog and pony show with trainers/owners picking their post after a pre-determined order) was dropped for 2010 and will this year be unlikely aired at all.

If anything the amount of interest for Derby fever is as alive as ever. There are vastly more sources of data, news, and prediction lists being made available far earlier then ever before. Churchill's financially backing for NBC to air more prep-races than has been seen in recent years suggests that interest should be exceedingly high before the gate ever opens.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 1, 2010, 03:03 PM
Not the most polished of presentations, but I'll cut her some slack:

Video - Courier-Journal's Jennie Rees with her "5 Stories to watch' with the unfolding chase to the KY Derby (http://www.courier-journal.com/section/videonetwork?bctid=64194045001)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 1, 2010, 06:33 PM
I'd be remiss to not cite Drosselmeyer (http://www.drf.com/news/article/110505.html) and his victory for Bill Mott at Gulfstream Jan 31st in an allowance at 9-furlongs. The victory was the second in a row for Drosselmeyer, who was an even easier maiden winner in his 2-year-old finale 10 weeks earlier at Churchill Downs.


Mott said when or where Drosselmeyer would make his stakes debut remained up in the air, although one option is obviously the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth here Feb. 20.

"I've got to talk to the Big E," Mott said with a smile, referring to WinStar's vice president and racing manager Elliott Walden. "They might have three more with Todd for the Fountain of Youth. They'll probably send me to Sunland with this horse."

DickHertz
Feb. 1, 2010, 08:39 PM
I haven't seen any horse yet that is capable of winning a triple crown race - at least in the stakes races to this point.

caffeinated
Feb. 2, 2010, 06:00 PM
And looks like Winslow Homer will be out with a hairline fracture.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 2, 2010, 06:08 PM
And looks like Winslow Homer will be out with a hairline fracture.

Yep - unfortunately.

Brisnet Feb 2, 2010 "Winslow Homer sidelined, off Derby trail" (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=17467)


"Winslow Homer had a little sensitivity in his shin Sunday morning. We went over him with a fine-toothed comb and found a small stress fracture in his cannon bone, resulting in Winslow having to go on the shelf for the next 60-90 days," Porter said. "Winslow should return to training in early April. This is another tough luck story for me and the Fox Hill (Farm) fans but hopefully we will have a huge summer and fall with Winslow Homer."

Glimmerglass
Feb. 2, 2010, 06:34 PM
Just my view but far too many people just think 'Lookin' is the stuff - but I don't. His first 2010 race might prove me wrong, but for now I won't wager a nickle on him in the future bets. DRF 2-2-10 "Lookin At Lucky gets over minor illness" (http://drf.com/news/article/110529.html)


Lookin At Lucky has not started since winning the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December.

Baffert said that Lookin At Lucky is being prepared for a return in March, but that no race has been finalized.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 2, 2010, 08:05 PM
Overlooked in the news department (it was announced Feb 1st) or perhaps a lesser contender for some folks: Derby Hopeful Piscitelli Sidelined (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55147/derby-hopeful-piscitelli-sidelined): a deep bone bruise at the bottom of his right hind cannon bone following the Holy Bull.


Piscitelli was beaten by only three-quarters of a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park by champion Lookin At Lucky and Vale of York, the co-highweights on the Experimental.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 2, 2010, 11:32 PM
I'm just shocked (!) that Alex Brown lists in his top 10 @ #6 Lentenor (http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/paulick-derby-index-brought-to-you-by-vinery-ltd-let-the-polls-begin/) ;) Actually I expected AB to have him at #1 ... maybe next weekend.

Alas the blended top list of Ray Paulick's "AP-esq" sports poll will, just as it did last least, continue to reflect the weekend knee-jerk, flavor of the week shufflings. Winners of the weekend will be the sweetheart although it appears that 'Lookin At Lucky' will sit in the top 10 [if not the top spot] until March - despite no 2010 evidence of that being the best choice.

I'm still shocked so many put Vale of York in the Top 10. If he even starts in the Kentucky Derby I'll be impressed but for not. No Dubai trained horse will win the Derby.

Too many people are ignoring Dublin who looks like he's ready to bust heads Feb 15th (http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=44658) in the Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes.

WinterTriangle
Feb. 3, 2010, 03:27 AM
I'm just shocked (!) that Alex Brown lists in his top 10 @ #6 Lentenor (http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/paulick-derby-index-brought-to-you-by-vinery-ltd-let-the-polls-begin/) ;) Actually I expected AB to have him at #1 ... maybe next weekend.

......although it appears that 'Lookin At Lucky' will sit in the top 10 [if not the top spot] until March - despite no 2010 evidence of that being the best choice.

I'm still shocked so many put Vale of York in the Top 10. If he even starts in the Kentucky Derby I'll be impressed but for not. No Dubai trained horse will win the Derby.

Too many people are ignoring Dublin who looks like he's ready to bust heads Feb 15th (http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=44658) in the Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes.


Too bad about Winslow Homer and Piscatelli. Wow, these young horses can barely get thru a stakes races these days?

Lookin at Lucky , there was some talk of him going to Dubai. I'll tell ya, I pulled up the nomination list for the Cup .... there are some serious horseflesh gonna be comin in for that one, De Kock and bin Soor and some of the other ones from the far corners of the world, some serious "wow" horses.

I'll be at Oaklawn to see Dublin, and I agree, he's worth another chance since his problems were breathing problems. I feel certain that he's "tuned-up" and ready for racing. That's just my intuition. I'll let ya know how he looks in the paddocks.

As for Vale of York, a friend who does pretty indepth pedigree research has him in top 3.....going back 5 generations, this guy has the goods. Whether he comes or not, and how the travelling affects him is another thing, but just on his own merit I wouldn't even think of tossing him off my list.

Anyway, Winslow was one on my list so I'm disappointed.:confused:

Glimmerglass
Feb. 3, 2010, 08:29 PM
Saturday's Whirlaway at the Big A - note how early this race is:


$100,000 (ungraded) Whirlaway Stakes
Aqueduct Race Course
Sat Feb 6, 2010 - Race 3, 1:26 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Track)

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Turf Melody (KY), A R Napravnik, 122, H G Motion
2. Eightyfiveinafifty (KY), J F Chavez, 116, G C Contessa
3. Peppi Knows (KY), R Migliore, 120, T C Kreiser
4. Afleet Again (KY), A Serpa, 118, R E Reid, Jr.
5. Three Day Rush (KY), D Cohen, 120, T A Pletcher
6. Papa's Nice Cat (NY), M J Luzzi, 116, C J Englehart

The lowest weight of the field for the horse whose name, thus far, has been fitting!

Glimmerglass
Feb. 5, 2010, 04:48 PM
Another one of the celeb partnerships who might have a Derby horse - that is if he scores some bigger victories ;) Having Tom Amoss as their trainer does go a long way as he's been on fire down at the Fair Grounds.

USAToday 2-4-10 "Last Mango Racing Stable and Daddy Forty Nine" (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/2010-02-04-daddy-forty-nine-saints_N.htm)


NO Saints quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton, vice president of communications Greg Bensel, singer Jimmy Buffett, and the Monday Night Football crew of Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden, are partners in the horse-racing group.


Daddy Forty Nine has won three of six starts, but finished fourth in a field of six in his most recent race, last Monday at the Fairgrounds Race Track in New Orleans.

Daddy Forty Nine could run in the March 27 Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds. A good showing there, should he run, could point the way to the May 1 Kentucky Derby.

Last Mango Stable was formed three years ago. It purchased Daddy Forty Nine from well-connected owner Maggi Moss, and hired prominent Fairgrounds trainer Tom Amoss as the gelding's conditioner.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 6, 2010, 05:35 PM
The Whirlaway: Holy cow - what in the world happened?!!!

Unable to watch the race live I just managed to play my DVR and expected Eightyfiveinafifty to smoke'em and not blow the first turn, dump the jockey, bolt away and leaving the betting public (having sent him off at 1-5!) tearing up tickets and trainer Gary Contessa getting chest pains!

Fox Sports 2-6-2010 "Peppi Knows wins Whirlaway; favorite unseats rider" (http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/Peppi-Knows-wins-Whirlaway-disrupted-by-spill-32527217)


His prize 3-year-old colt Eightyfiveinafifty had bolted to the far outside during the Whirlaway Stakes on Saturday, burst through two barriers and took off in the direction of the barn area. Jockey Jorge Chavez was unseated and fell to the cold, hard dirt track.

``Oh my God,'' Contessa whispered as he took off running through the tunnel leading to the track.

It would be a few tense minutes before Contessa found out that Eightfiveinafifty had been safely caught after suffering a bloody, two-inch cut to his right hind leg and just might race again. Chavez complained of soreness, but was walking on his own before being taken to a hospital for further examination.

``He'll need a couple of stitches,'' a relieved Contessa said of his colt, and ``I'll need a Valium.''


Contessa said his colt's bit was broken and the rein was shredded, but he wasn't sure whether it happened during the race or after Eightyfiveinafifty bolted. Later, Contessa said Chavez told him that the bit had broken in the race and that he had no control of the horse.

dressagetraks
Feb. 7, 2010, 04:43 PM
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but how on earth does a bit break? Do they actually mean in two pieces, or just a rein coming off a ring or something? I guess they're under a lot more stress in racing than regular riding, but it would seem like the metal would have to be weakened and worn enough that somebody would have noticed while bridling the horse. Can apparently sound bits just snap?

Just wondering how and how often this happens. I've never heard of a bit breaking, racehorse or show, although a whole lot of people have a lot more racehorse and general horse experience than I do.

Glad the jockey is hopefully okay and the horse seems all right.

LaurieB
Feb. 7, 2010, 04:57 PM
For anyone having trouble coming up with an early Derby pick, here's the list of Triple Crown Nominees: :D

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/triple-crown-mania/nominations

Glimmerglass
Feb. 7, 2010, 05:43 PM
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but how on earth does a bit break? Do they actually mean in two pieces, or just a rein coming off a ring or something?

I'd be interesting in the answer too! Per the DRF: (http://www.drf.com/news/article/110633.html) "Chavez told [his agent] that Eightyfiveinafifty's "bit snapped" shortly after the start.

NYRA/Youtube video replay: Whirlaway Stakes Feb 6, 2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vl2U1dYZvQ8&feature=sub)

I'd like to think they're going to insert him into a 2-turn race in the very near future vs. wait for the Wood Memorial to try a graded stakes race at 2-turns. However that is unclear, see below, the upside is the horse and jockey are ok (http://www.drf.com/news/article/110646.html):

While Eightyfiveinafifty needed about 14 stitches to close a wound on his right hind leg, he otherwise escaped Saturday's bizarre incident unscathed.

According to his agent, Mike Monroe, he expects Jorge Chavez to be back riding Wednesday.

Contessa said the horse would need a week off from training. Contessa wouldn't speculate on whether he would keep the horse sprinting or try to stretch him out again.

"It's going to depend on how much time I lose, how his wound heals, how his brain handles what happened," Contessa said. "Does this start a new problem with him? How much does he remember what he did in that turn? A lot of things I got to do to get him over it mentally and physically, but he will live to fight again."

Triple Crown Nominations for 2010 are just 366 for the $600 nomination fee (http://www.drf.com/news/article/110644.html) due which was due on Jan. 16. [More then a few names on it are already off the trail] Interesting aside that I didn't know: Triple Crown Productions who used to administer the common forms [for all three legs of the TC] ceased last year and that company has been disbanded. (In 2010 the racing departments of the three tracks continue to join forces to gather the nominations for the Triple Crown.)

In 2010, this far, eight fillies have been nominated to the Triple Crown. As you may recall in 2009 Rachel Alexandra was not nominated to the TC (the Kentucky Oaks does not required TC nomination) and a significant supplemental fee had to be paid to get her into the Preakness.

Barnfairy
Feb. 7, 2010, 08:06 PM
So what kind of bit was that? A cage bit? (http://gallery.pictopia.com/bloodhorse/photo/8741661/) (click on the zoom icon in the upper left corner of picture) I can't quite make out any rings.

That would be sort of fitting, wouldn't it....that he had a run-out because his run-out bit broke. That could have ended very badly.

Rubyfree
Feb. 8, 2010, 12:38 PM
I have heard first hand tales of 'apparently sound' bits just.... breaking. Along the same lines, I have seen an almost new stirrup simply shear in half, and on one memorable occasion, a buckle on the collar of a very large and aggressive dog give way. I work with metal IRL- my assumption is that it has less to do with general weakening through use than with failure of technique in manufacturing (which would not generally be visible) + stress under use.

Anyway. Gratefully shocked that everyone is OK. If racing doesn't pan out, the horse would make a fine jumper.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 8, 2010, 07:44 PM
Perr Baffert he thinks Lookin At Lucky will be even better on dirt (http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/horse_racing/it_time_to_get_lucky_sP9RTmotaJ62a81oiehv6I) - and he's going to be equipped with blinkers in his next start. Based upon his true b-day he will still be 2 when the Preakness goes off. He was foaled May 27th.

The 1st Futures wagering pool starts this Thursday.

mroades
Feb. 8, 2010, 09:14 PM
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but how on earth does a bit break? Do they actually mean in two pieces, or just a rein coming off a ring or something? I guess they're under a lot more stress in racing than regular riding, but it would seem like the metal would have to be weakened and worn enough that somebody would have noticed while bridling the horse. Can apparently sound bits just snap?

Just wondering how and how often this happens. I've never heard of a bit breaking, racehorse or show, although a whole lot of people have a lot more racehorse and general horse experience than I do.

Glad the jockey is hopefully okay and the horse seems all right.



I had a snaffle bit break right in half while cantering a 17.2 hh ottb....that was fun. I used the rein around his neck to stop him, but imagine if we had been galloping!!!! And didnt McLain Ward have his bit break in the Olympics??

Glimmerglass
Feb. 9, 2010, 09:53 PM
Another one to keep on the radar: BloodHorse 2-9-10 "Fastest 3YO You Haven't Heard of Yet: Tempted to Tapit (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2010/02/09/the-fastest-3yo-you-haven-t-heard-of.aspx)

Video replay: Jan 23, 2010 Race 2 Aqueduct (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXNDKK7zpeM)

1-mile distance, added blinkers first time, maiden win in 4th career try, margin of victory 11 1/2 lengths. It will be interesting to see what he'll do next with the Gotham (G3) not too far away.

Also noted on the road to Churchill: Concord Point, trained by Bob Baffert, sold to Kaleem Shah (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/February/09/Shah-buys-three-year-old-Concord-Point.aspx) - the colt remain under BB's care.

“I think he’s a really nice horse,” Baffert said on Tuesday. “We were very high on him before he ran. He ran very greenly and he still won. He’s got a lot potential. He’s a Triple Crown nominee, and we think he’s that type of horse.”
Up next is however an allowance 6F race (#6 on the card) Friday (http://drf.com/static/entries/12/eSA12.html?rn=208530#6) Feb 12th at Santa Anita.

Kaleem Shah is the founder of one of the larger profiteers from the rapid growth in Homeland Security with his privately held Calnet firm (http://www.inc.com/inc5000/2007/company-profile.html?id=200701280) headquartered in Reston, VA.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 10, 2010, 02:11 PM
Call me a pessimist but I already didn't think Vale of York was going to the Kentucky Derby and now Vale of York may be sent to Europe (http://drf.com/news/article/110688.html):


"Vale of York is training towards the UAE Derby on 27 March," Crisford advised in an email. "A lot will depend on the outcome of that race and we will not make any decisions about a possible Kentucky bid until afterwards. Obviously the race will be on a synthetic surface and therefore Vale of York is yet to have any dirt experience. It is equally possible that he will be pointed towards a European campaign."

Glimmerglass
Feb. 10, 2010, 05:55 PM
Another one to keep on the radar:Tempted to Tapit

Video replay: Jan 23, 2010 Race 2 Aqueduct (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXNDKK7zpeM)

1-mile distance, added blinkers first time, maiden win in 4th career try, margin of victory 11 1/2 lengths. It will be interesting to see what he'll do next with the Gotham (G3) not too far away.

Up next for 'Tempted' is not the Gotham but rather either Grade-2 Risen Star (Oaklawn) or Grade-2 Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream) (http://drf.com/news/article/110694.html) both will be held on Feb 20th. The Risen Star is at 1 1/16mi while the Fountain of Youth is 1 1/8 mi.

D' Funnybone is going to start next on the same day (2/20) in the Grade-2 Hutchenson Stakes.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 11, 2010, 01:19 AM
Not surprising the first, second and third finishers from the Grade 3 San Rafael held at Santa Anita are fleeing the State - and the synthetics - for dirt racing and Oaklawn Park. In particular is Cardiff Giant who I like and think could do exceedingly well on a less laboring surface!

He along with Conveyance and Domonation are going to start in Monday's (2/15) Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes (http://www.drf.com/news/article/110697.html)

Also expected in the Southwest is D. Wayne Lukas' underrated Dublin who is putting in excellent works and with his throat all good should be either a monster or just not up to snuff. I doubt the latter.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2010, 10:05 AM
Tomorrow (Sat 2/13) has another step towards Churchill with a stop in Tampa and the Grade 3 $200k Sam F. Davis Stakes - featuring the Pletcher trained, Delta Jackpot winner Rule (read: he's guaranteed a starting gate) and the large-partnership owned Uptowncharlybrown:


$200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, Grade 3
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 @ 4:52 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Rule (KY), J R Velazquez, 122, T A Pletcher
2. Schoolyard Dreams (KY), C H Velasquez, 116, D S Ryan
3. Tristen's Mambo (KY), L R Goncalves, 116, G Carwood
4. Middle of the Nite (KY), E S Prado, 116, T Albertrani
5. Silver Craft (KY), J L Castanon, 116, A L Reinstedler
6. Uptowncharlybrown (KY), D Centeno, 118, A S Seewald
7. African Moon (KY), J Lopez, 116, D Bennett

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2010, 11:01 AM
Equidaily spied this neat free tool from the Courier-Journal: the past performances for all 2010 TC nominated horses (http://www.courier-journal.com/graphics/2010/derby/tcn0501y.pdf)

It was about 117 pages long :)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 12, 2010, 07:42 PM
Also noted on the road to Churchill: Concord Point, trained by Bob Baffert, sold to Kaleem Shah (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/February/09/Shah-buys-three-year-old-Concord-Point.aspx) - the colt remain under BB's care.

Up next is however an allowance 6F race (#6 on the card) Friday (http://drf.com/static/entries/12/eSA12.html?rn=208530#6) Feb 12th at Santa Anita.

I hope Kaleem didn't pay too much for him - he went off as the clear favorite but never could get the job done and had no excuses! Concord Point fails to hit the board. A lovely close down the middle of the track by Doug O'Neill trained High Success who flew by the field and clearly can get the distance.

High Success was bought for $20k and in 5 lifetime races has never done worse then 2nd and has now 3 wins in a row.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2010, 11:50 AM
Lentenor, ranked by some in the top 20 towards the TC, will make his next start Feb 17th in yet another allowance race: Gulfstream 2/17: 8th Race, post 4:43PM EST @ 1 1/8 Miles (on Turf) (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55360/lentenor-entered-to-run-feb-17-in-florida)

Per Matz the plan is (http://www.boston.com/sports/other_sports/horse_racing/articles/2010/02/13/its_in_lentenors_blood/): If he performs OK in that, Matz expects to enter him in a stakes race on dirt, perhaps the Florida Derby, just like his big brother, who used the Florida Derby as his final Derby prep.

Still not announced yet is the field for Monday's (2/15) Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest at Oaklawn but expected tentatively will be a field of 11 - including Dublin, Cardiff Giant, Conveyance, Cool Bullet, Crider, Domonation, Dryfly, Kitty's Turn, Mission Impazible, Moojab, and Pleasant Storm.

Currently the first Future Wager Pool (which closes at 6pm Sunday 2/14) the leading "favorite" is 'all others'. Much of that is due to a single $5,000 wager placed within a couple of hours of the pool opening on Thursday.

SLW
Feb. 13, 2010, 12:30 PM
I am pulling for Pleasant Storm on Monday. :)

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2010, 04:24 PM
Those folks interested in the journey going forward of Uptowncharlybrown - can follow "his" blog here (http://ucbrown.blogspot.com/) - he's owned by 59 different folks ;)

Today as cited above is his big day in his first graded stakes race - Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay to be aired live on TVG and HRTV.

Barnfairy
Feb. 13, 2010, 04:51 PM
Equidaily spied this neat free tool from the Courier-Journal: the past performances for all 2010 TC nominated horses (http://www.courier-journal.com/graphics/2010/derby/tcn0501y.pdf)

It was about 117 pages long :):lol:

Back when you still had to pay for charts, I took advantage of a free lifetime charts report offer for Brisnet members. And I mean just that when I say "took advantage", because the horse whose charts I ordered was my Rasor D -- 130 pages for one horse! Now that was a good deal.

Anywho. On to the Sam F. Davis!

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2010, 05:52 PM
Barnfairy, Brisnet (like any business) knew the risks with an "all you can eat" picing package :D

One open question I don't get with TVG's remarks on Rule before the Sam F. Davis: they questioned "what has he done since?" in the context of him not having run since Dec and the big win in the Delta Jackpot.

Ok, fine, but wouldn't they say the same for Lookin At Lucky when he finally returns in March? He too has been equally "on the shelf" so to [i]doubt Rule is fine but apply that same flawed logic to others as well. Right now Todd puts LAL at the top of his Derby list. Go figure.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2010, 06:06 PM
Rule, the Pletcher trainee, is the real deal despite the criticism by winning the Delta Jackpot. 'Uptown' and 'Schoolyard' were frankly easily bested by Rule in the Sam F. Davis. So much for the nonsense from some who doubted the horse.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2010, 07:15 PM
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita upset by Caracortado. The favorites (Tiz Chrome and American Lion) were no where to be found in the stretch

ThisTooShallPass
Feb. 13, 2010, 07:29 PM
I had Caracortado in the near $750k Pick 6 carry over, but then did not place a seperate to win bet him on him as I was still feeling like something stank in Denmark over Whisk in race 4. My loss. Again.

I have Becrux in the 7th (in my now failed) pick 6.. We'll see...

ThisTooShallPass
Feb. 13, 2010, 07:47 PM
5 Big Wig

8 Squall Creek

4 Becrux

Glad I saved my $4 & did not bet.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 13, 2010, 08:07 PM
DWL has been cleaning up big time this weekend at Oaklawn with Thompson up and I don't see why that wouldn't extend to Monday's Southwest Stakes - the final field for the Monday Feb 15th race:

$250,000 Southwest Stakes Grade 3
Oaklawn Park Race 9; off at 5:02 p.m. CST
1 Mile on Dirt

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Kitty's Turn (KY), R Albarado, 115, G A Thomas
2. Conveyance (KY), G K Gomez, 122, B Baffert
3. Cardiff Giant (KY), C Santiago Reyes, 115, J Periban
4. Mission Impazible (KY), J R Velazquez, 115, T A Pletcher
5. Domonation (KY), C S Nakatani, 115, J W Sadler
6. Dryfly (KY), C H Borel, 122, L S Whiting
7. Crider (FL), L S Quinonez, 115, S M Asmussen
8. Cool Bullet (FL), B J Hernandez Jr., 117, S Margolis
9. Pleasant Storm (OK), L B McNeil, 117, J Petalino
10. Dublin (KY), T J Thompson, 117, D W Lukas
I'll again say that few are giving Cardiff Giant much mention but I'll bet (and will do so) that he hits the board ;)

Horseforthecourse
Feb. 13, 2010, 09:20 PM
Conveyance will blow this field away. I believe that he is Baffert's best horse, but I think I already said that in another post.

justalittlex
Feb. 13, 2010, 09:54 PM
I've been betting on Cardiff Giant and will continue to do so. Tiz Chrome looked poorly in the saddling area today, many peeps were noticing. It was quite a hot day at Santa Anita.

WinterTriangle
Feb. 14, 2010, 02:47 AM
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita upset by Caracortado. The favorites (Tiz Chrome and American Lion) were no where to be found in the stretch

I was suprised Caracortado went off so long, he was 4 for 4 going in, and had already won at 1 1/16 and beat Evening Jewel and La Nez! :confused:

Tiz Chrome had only run and won a sprint, and went off at even odds. (I guess it's the baffert factor.:))

WinterTriangle
Feb. 14, 2010, 03:03 AM
I am pulling for Pleasant Storm on Monday. :)

:) Saw him run in his last. I'm a fan of all the "pleasants". 2nd to dryfly....I also remember thinking Dryfly looked like a "derby horse" in the paddock.

I can't wait to see Dublin in the paddock. He's quite gorgeous. Oaklawn has been tough this year IMHO with 'weather'. The race is only a mile, and theres a number of speedy ones in here.

olympicdreams04
Feb. 15, 2010, 11:26 AM
Re: Tempted to Tapit. I both named and broke this horse for Dogwood last year. He is by Tapit o/o Tempting Note and they wouldn't let me know name Charitable Man's half bro (By Storm Cat o/o Charitabledonation) Give and Receive nor would they let me name Touching Beauty (By Tapit o/o Victory Road) Trophy Wife but it tickles me pink I got to stamp the TB industry with such an appropriate name. Lol. Anyway, this guy has grown up ALOT since I was last on him, but he never really struck me as a horse that was overly special. @ the time, he didn't turn in spectacular works but he was always super well balanced (read: could buck, prop, wheel, and rear all in one movement). Another one to watch that I also broke for Dogwood is A Little Warm. Even as a bright young thing, he has a super quick turn of foot and was very patient when asked to rate. Of course I'm rooting for these two. Other Dogwood horses to look out for in the future: Wildlee Special and River Oaks. Another horse off the derby trial: William's Kitten.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 15, 2010, 11:53 AM
Re: Tempted to Tapit. I both named and broke this horse for Dogwood last year.

Now that's pretty damn cool :)


Another horse off the derby trial: William's Kitten.

Off - or on? I haven't seen any news that he's anything but still on. In fact if he was off they would've removed him from the Futures Pool 1 (http://www.churchilldowns.com/sites/churchilldowns.com/files/KDFW2010p1FINALODDS.pdf) which closed yesterday for him at 54-1 ;)

For today's Southwest Stakes today Dick Downey picks an uniquel winner (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Dicks_Picks): Mission Impazible. Which I don't think many others will go with ;) Dublin, the serious Derby contender, as I've said before either will show up or you could write him off as a horse always with one excuse or another. I think he'll be there in force as will Cardiff Giant ...

Glimmerglass
Feb. 15, 2010, 03:12 PM
Videos this year are more readily available the every before withe BloodHorse doing a very good job of making just about every prep race accessable at no charge.

Still I'll post this one - video: the Sam F. Davis (G3) from Tampa Bay Feb 13, 2010 with Pletcher trained Rule (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlDRkaYLMP0)

Uptowncharlybrown was starting to close so going 1 1/4 mi should suit him far better with that final kick being engaged nearing the 1-mile mark. He simply isn't a sprinter.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 15, 2010, 05:56 PM
Looks like mother nature wasn't going to have the Southwest Stakes (G2) - race 9 - go off today ... "race canceled - track conditions"

Equibase late scratches/changes Oaklawn Park (http://equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesOP-USA.html)

Any idea when would this race most likely rescheduled? This Saturday perhaps?

Glimmerglass
Feb. 15, 2010, 06:34 PM
Actually D. Wayne Lukas spoke to HRTV (after talking to the Oaklawn officials and also taking a call from Bob Baffert who had the ML favorite - Conveyance) the race will be rescheduled for "next Saturday". [ETA - confirmed by Oaklawn as Feb 20th] (http://www.oaklawn.com/News/Story.aspx?Id=230)

Also

1 - The entries for the race will be reopened. Oaklawn is hoping that a week later might get a few more entries (or at least compensate in case a few CA shippers go back West); they had 89 nominees for the race and just 10 were going to start

2 - Post-positions will be redrawn on Thursday

Glimmerglass
Feb. 15, 2010, 07:21 PM
If I had to read between the lines I'd almost think that Eightfiveinafifty is no-longer aimed towards the Kentucky Derby. (http://drf.com/news/article/110817.html) He'll put in a work this Wed (2/17) but as for actual racing:


Contessa said all options are open for Eightyfiveinafifty's race, but strongly indicated the Grade 3 Gotham, at 1 1/16 miles on March 6 is highly unlikely.

Contessa said a race like the Fred "Cappy" Capossela, a six-furlong race the same day as the Gotham, is a possibility, as is the seven-furlong Bay Shore on April 3 or even training him up to the Wood Memorial at 1 1/8 miles on the same card as the Bay Shore.

"I haven't given up the prospect of trying him long again," Contessa said. "I would want to work the hell out of him around that first turn, though. I'd be more inclined to run him in the Bay Shore."

No graded money to date; not running in the Gotham and possibly not the Wood but rather same day (Apr 3) in the $200,000 7-furlong Grade 3 Bay Shore. Even if you win the Bay Shore that won't likely be enough $$ to get a starting gate for Churchill. The $750k Grade 1 Wood would almost be a must target if no earnings are accumulated by then.

Glimmerglass
Feb. 15, 2010, 08:48 PM
Sidney's Candy with Joe Talamo up finally returned to good form and took a very strong win in this afternoon's $150,000 San Vicente S. (G2) at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert's little guy, Tiny Woods was a distant second and worked most of the way to even get that.

Woods (owned by Thoroughbred Legends Racing) has a decent amount of graded stakes money, but I don't think he's suited to the KY Derby distance. Having been burned once too many times by Chocolate Candy last year I'll hold off getting aboard Jenny Craig's Sidney's Candy who is likely doing to the Santa Anita to Kentucky Derby route.

olympicdreams04
Feb. 15, 2010, 09:38 PM
Now that's pretty damn cool :)

Off - or on? I haven't seen any news that he's anything but still on. In fact if he was off they would've removed him from the Futures Pool 1 (http://www.churchilldowns.com/sites/churchilldowns.com/files/KDFW2010p1FINALODDS.pdf) which closed yesterday for him at 54-1 ;)



Dogwood was definitely a once in a lifetime experience! They certainly break and train some lovely horses in their own style, so to speak. I can say nothing but good things about Ron and Cot though. Anyway, just trust me when I say William's Kitten is off. Ssssshhh. Keep it on the downlow.

EightBelles134
Feb. 16, 2010, 09:56 AM
I'm looking forward to seeing Lentenor in his allowance race tomorrow...and also looking forward to seeing Lookin At Lucky in his next race..also got these notifications:

Eskenderaya:
Date: February 14, 2010
Track: PALM MEADOWS TRAINING CENTER
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.00:60 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 2/34

Connemara:

Date: February 14, 2010
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:00 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: All Weather Track
Rank: 26/37

Backtalk:

Date: February 14, 2010
Track: FAIR GROUNDS
Distance: Six Furlongs
Time: 1.12:80 Breezing

Barnfairy
Mar. 6, 2010, 09:16 PM
Awesome Act awesome in the (G3) Gotham (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/March/06/European-shipper-awesome-in-Gotham.aspx) (you can access race replay within that article link - note: video cuts out around the first turn, but does come back.)

What impressed me most is that the colt took this race, his first effort since finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile back in Nov, fairly easily having just been shipped here from England on Tuesday to boot.

On the opposite coast, we saw Alphie's Bet take the re-scheduled (G3) Sham (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/March/06/Alphies-Bet-powers-from-outside-to-clear-Sham-win.aspx).