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View Full Version : Fair Hill Results--by breed! YEH/CCI comparison...



subk
Oct. 19, 2009, 09:02 PM
CCI*** from 1st to 5th: TB, 7/8TB, TB, SF, SF

CCI** from 1st to 5th: TB, TB, DW/TB, TB, TB

4 year old YEH 1 st to 5th: SW/TB, OLD, Trak, OLD, Trak

5 year old YEH 1st to 5th: DWB, "SH", ISH, TB/DWB, OLD

So, out of ten CCI horses 6 full TBs in the top 10, 2 others have a full TB parent (one being 7/8 the other at least 1/2) and 2 are Selle Francais.

Zero full TBs in the top ten of the YEHs. One 3/4 TB (Buck's OLD) and possibly one another 3/4 (the "SH"), but only 4 in total with any full TB parent.

Browsing the general 2009 YEH results the TBs don't do much better there either.
http://useventing.com/competitions.php?section=yeh&id=1848

Why such a disconnect? Does it bother anyone that the YEH results so poorly reflects the real results of the level of competition that is the YEH breeding goal?

2LaZ2race
Oct. 19, 2009, 09:09 PM
Just a thought (not science or proven fact by any means..)

The horse that won the *** was an OTTB.

An OTTB that comes off the track at 4 will probably not be ready to do YEH at 4 or 5.

Will it someday be ready to do a CCI**/*** ? Looks like it.

That could be one of many factors.

Arcadien
Oct. 19, 2009, 09:31 PM
Why such a disconnect? Does it bother anyone that the YEH results so poorly reflects the real results of the level of competition that is the YEH breeding goal?

Yup, bothers me too, thanks for bringing it up. I'm still watching for the changeover to non TB blood dominating at upper level events with the new format. Seems it's not happening - not yet at least.

Is YEH really supposed to showcase Advanced eventing prospect? Or is it another nice marketing venue for more ammy h/j, maybe low level event horses?

I guess only more time will tell...

JER
Oct. 19, 2009, 09:36 PM
The second-placed 5 year-old is by Catherston Dazzler (5/8ths TB) out of an ISH mare so he probably is close to 3/4 TB.

The YEH judges, IIRC, were (1) a German FEI judge, (2) an American Hannoverian breeder and (3) an American Hannoverian breeder. Might have something to do with it -- something about the poodle judge choosing the poodle for Best in Show.

My 3 year-old TB went to an FEH early this year and was told she needed 'more muscling.' She was not yet 3 years old at the time. The horses who placed well that day were the heavier types and I don't expect to see them in the ULs of eventing in a few years. Or ever.

(Her older half-sister (13/16ths TB), who just came 2nd in her first Intermediate at age 7, would not have fared well in the YEH. She doesn't overjump and she doesn't snap her knees up unless she needs to, which is rarely -- which is not unusual for an athletic horse. She was also not into dressage at that age and was very immature physically.)

RunForIt
Oct. 19, 2009, 10:04 PM
The second-placed 5 year-old is by Catherston Dazzler (5/8ths TB) out of an ISH mare so he probably is close to 3/4 TB.

The YEH judges, IIRC, were (1) a German FEI judge, (2) an American Hannoverian breeder and (3) an American Hannoverian breeder. Might have something to do with it -- something about the poodle judge choosing the poodle for Best in Show.

My 3 year-old TB went to an FEH early this year and was told she needed 'more muscling.' She was not yet 3 years old at the time. The horses who placed well that day were the heavier types and I don't expect to see them in the ULs of eventing in a few years. Or ever.

(Her older half-sister (13/16ths TB), who just came 2nd in her first Intermediate at age 7, would not have fared well in the YEH. She doesn't overjump and she doesn't snap her knees up unless she needs to, which is rarely -- which is not unusual for an athletic horse. She was also not into dressage at that age and was very immature physically.)

subk got me thinking about this mismatch after the YEH/FEH event in GA...would be interesting to get the judges, the trainers, the riders, the owners all to also give their perspectives...

at the same time, I know one of the winning horses quite well, dam side is TB and sire is dressage, don't know the line, may well have some TB though as many of the European dressage lines do. Point is, THIS horse can and will GALLOP like a TB, WANTS to gallop, and DOES, Yes, he has fancy gaits, and yes he snaps his knees when he jumps, but damn y'all, so does my little OTTB Rasta, up round his eyeballs! And check his pedigree - 1/2 brother won the Derby!

I do get what you're clearly pointing out though, subk...is this a "poodle show" or are the YEH breeders a real source for REAL event horses...or is the dismal opposite the sad reality...eventing future's is as real as reality tv... sigh.

bornfreenowexpensive
Oct. 19, 2009, 10:14 PM
Well I saw most of the 5 year olds at the YEH Finals. The top 5...including my own...were not heavy horses by any means. My guy may only have one full TB parent but his warmblood sire isn't a heavy warmblood.

You don't ride pedigree....you ride the individual. And most of the 5 year olds that I saw at the finals were the right type....not heavy, good movers, good jumpers and good gallops (although I may be biased....my guy had the best gallop...gets that from his TB mama I'm sure).

Now I didn't necessarily agree with all the scores....I do agree that these were some nice horses and most of them you would not kick out of your barn as an UL event prospect.

JER
Oct. 19, 2009, 10:49 PM
I don't mean to criticize the actual judging/results. I didn't see the horses except for in the photos on the USEA blog (I have to say I found the dressage photos more informative than the jumping photos).

My point is that the judging had a bias toward WBs. Why not have a TB or even an ISH/British Sport Horse (by this I mean the trad 3/4- to 7/8ths-bred eventer) expert in the mix? Or a proven dealer/producer of UL eventers? There's a lot we all could learn from the musings of a David Hopper or a Vere Phillips or a Sandra Low-Mitchell -- these are people whose success in the horse world is due to their ability to judge young prospects.

bornfreenowexpensive
Oct. 19, 2009, 10:55 PM
I don't mean to criticize the actual judging/results. I didn't see the horses except for in the photos on the USEA blog (I have to say I found the dressage photos more informative than the jumping photos).

My point is that the judging had a bias toward WBs. Why not have a TB or even an ISH/British Sport Horse (by this I mean the trad 3/4- to 7/8ths-bred eventer) expert in the mix? Or a proven dealer/producer of UL eventers? There's a lot we all could learn from the musings of a David Hopper or a Vere Phillips or a Sandra Low-Mitchell -- these are people whose success in the horse world is due to their ability to judge young prospects.

I would have been thrilled to have them judge the horses. End of the day though...it is just one person's opinion. What will be interesting is to watch these horses progress and see what they become. It is all a crap shoot IMO....gamble with the breeding, and then you need to get them into the right hands to produce them...and then you need to keep them from hurting themselves (my biggest battle).

My guy wasn't prepped for the finals by any means....had 2 months off and was just starting back into work. I did it because it was in my back yard....and thought it would be a good experience for him (and it was).

Maya01
Oct. 19, 2009, 11:22 PM
Yah, I was wondering this too...I took my TB mare into a 4 year old class - I had never been to one prior and wasn't aware that the jumps would be upped and an FEI dressage judge would be used, so we weren't ready and didn't place well, but this is besides the point. All the top placed horses were warmbloods. Though they presented a nice dressage test and had perfect form over fences, they were hugely built didn't have the conformation or the stamina of a TB or a finer horse similar to a TB. A Trakehner I can understand - they possess a lot of arab/TB in their lines and the good ones are more athletic (note: the good ones).

The bigger the body = the more blood has to be pumped through = the more the heart has to work. If you can't get the blood their fast enough going into the final stages of a four star, then that is where the problems start. The cells don't get enough energy going to them because of the heart, the production of much needed 'ingredients' is slowed and that causes less and less needed 'ingredients' to get through the body. Big problem. Plus the WB is not built for speed, endurance and excessive agility, again - big problem.

I think we are looking for good hunters or dressage horses, perhaps lower-level eventing champions. I'm a sucker for a nice WB/TB that is fancy but not built like a transport truck. Certain WBs can do it, but most can't. Do we really want to take that chance?

subk
Oct. 19, 2009, 11:23 PM
I have no issue with any single horse...I'm sure they were all lovely. I have no reason to believe that the horses weren't judged to standard. (Although all the German representation in the judging stuns me on so many different levels!) But if the goal is to produce UL horses it is certainly fair to view the results as trends compared to the real deal. If the directives and standards are accurate then shouldn't results bear just a little similarity to the actual standard they represent? I think that's a fair question.

It is also not a question of the age for TBs coming off the track. There are plenty competing in the series--especially the YEH compared to the FEH--but as a group they just don't do well.


My 3 year-old TB went to an FEH early this year and was told she needed 'more muscling.' She was not yet 3 years old at the time. The horses who placed well that day were the heavier types and I don't expect to see them in the ULs of eventing in a few years. Or ever.
In hindsight, on my OP I probably should have disclosed that I did show my own TB in a FEH this year. Marginal results, except I came home with exact same the horse as if I'd had my pick of the bunch...

JER, I also got the "could show more muscling over topline but particularly thru neck" comment. Of course that is exactly the directives: "neck well muscled over topline." TBs do not come out of the womb like WBs with a topline, they develop it with work. Of course those same genes that create the instant topline also tend to create similar bulk elsewhere that is a distinct disadvantage galloping.

Of two things I'm certain: 1) A TB has a better chance of overcoming his classic TB characteristics than a WB has of overcoming it's classic WB characteristics. 2) In the real world if you want the *very best* chance of an UL horse you don't start with a young horse that is less than 1/2 or 3/4 TB.

RunForIt
Oct. 19, 2009, 11:24 PM
I would have been thrilled to have them judge the horses. End of the day though...it is just one person's opinion. What will be interesting is to watch these horses progress and see what they become. It is all a crap shoot IMO....gamble with the breeding, and then you need to get them into the right hands to produce them...and then you need to keep them from hurting themselves (my biggest battle).
.

the bottom line is...the bolded print above is the bottom line to judge if ithe YEH is a poodle show or a pool of possible US bred event horses...wait and see. :cool:

subk
Oct. 19, 2009, 11:32 PM
Actually, I think it will be more telling to see how well the TBs in the series do after they've been pinned low in the series. I don't doubt that many of the WBs doing well in the series are quality UL candidates. What I wonder is are the TBs being discounted for classic TB qualities that in the real world are an asset at the ULs.

RunForIt
Oct. 19, 2009, 11:44 PM
Actually, I think it will be more telling to see how well the TBs in the series do after they've been pinned low in the series. I don't doubt that many of the WBs doing well in the series are quality UL candidates. What I wonder is are the TBs being discounted for classic TB qualities that in the real world are an asset at the ULs.

In the long run, does it really matter how well the TBs are pinned in the YEH or FEH if they continue to run and jump well in the events...

pretty is as pretty does...might hold very well in eventing. :cool:

vineyridge
Oct. 20, 2009, 12:16 AM
Good thread. I noticed the same thing and was mildly PO'ed by the results of the YEH classes.

Time will be the only judge of whether the continental European style WBs will take over modern eventing to the same extent that they have taken over the Young Horse competitions.

And I do agree that having a British or Irish judge would be a good thing, since their horses do tend to dominate eventing.

subk
Oct. 20, 2009, 12:24 AM
In the long run, does it really matter how well the TBs are pinned in the YEH or FEH if they continue to run and jump well in the events...
Not to the TBs, but I think it does matter to the breeding series a great deal. If we want a series that is viable, healthy and contributes to the sport it is indeed important for it to reflect the real world of UL eventing. If it doesn't it's just a poodle show...

Mach Two
Oct. 20, 2009, 01:12 AM
Not to the TBs, but I think it does matter to the breeding series a great deal. If we want a series that is viable, healthy and contributes to the sport it is indeed important for it to reflect the real world of UL eventing. If it doesn't it's just a poodle show...
Right you are!
It looks to me like WB breeders will benefit from this, and eventing will not.
At least not at the UL, in the international arena, against tough, scrappy TBs/primarily TB crosses.

I'm not anti-WB, there are many crossbreds (maybe like bornfree's?) that will be capable of rising to the occasion, and not everyone who wants to event wants to, or needs ride a TB, but time and again, it seems to be the TB breeding at the top of the heap, at *** and ****. There they will be, long slim necked pirates and barflies, happily eating poodles for breakfast.

JER
Oct. 20, 2009, 02:40 AM
In the long run, does it really matter how well the TBs are pinned in the YEH or FEH if they continue to run and jump well in the events...

If we're going to have this series, why not make it a valuable asset to US eventing? Why not use it as a venue for evaluating eventing prospects in terms of how real-life event horses are selected? There are people out there with so much expertise and experience -- why aren't we picking their brains?

And I very much agree with subk on the differences between a WBx and a full TB. They look different and develop differently.

I'm tired of seeing TBs advertised with qualifiers like 'looks like a WB!', 'everyone thinks he's a WB!' and 'WB looks and movement!.' What does that tell us? Why is it that we don't want our TBs to look like TBs? Is there anything more heart-stopping than a quality TB?

Years ago, I rode my TB mare (the mother of my young horses) in a dressage test with General Burton as judge. When I finished my test, he said "Finally, a REAL horse!" and proceeded to ask me about my mare. He ended with "You MUST breed this one."

My mare, for the record, has never been 'mistaken' for a WB. And I wouldn't want it any other way.

secretariat
Oct. 20, 2009, 09:33 AM
Excellent point, thanks for posting the stats. This is exactly as predicted when we started the program(s) (I'm including FEH in my comments as well). I requested a post audit of results (e.g., correlate young horse results with career attainment) to be a part of the formal plan, but was voted down.

Both FEH and YEH are good programs which deserve to be supported. But don't expect them to predict future upper level achievements.

BeverlyAStrauss
Oct. 20, 2009, 09:51 AM
Maybe it will end up that the YEH is more like an AKC dog show and actual eventing results will be more in line with a high level dog agility or obedience trial- what wins at the first may not be what can win at the second......especially when the tests get demanding.....

Jazzy Lady
Oct. 20, 2009, 10:10 AM
Just because it says it's a warmblood doesn't mean that it doesn't have a whack of tb in there somewhere. Mine is big, looks like a wb from the side and is mostly TB in his bloodlines. Registered KWPN.

GotSpots
Oct. 20, 2009, 10:11 AM
One of the other issues, however, is that there's a selection bias on who enters the YEH classes: because breeders have supported the series and because it recognizes breeders and sporthorse breeding, they tend to enter their horses at a higher percentage than folks who have an OTTB. There are fewer sporthorse breeders breeding and promoting full TBs, and thus the population of entrants is smaller than those who are promoting and breeding a warmblood or warmblood cross. Doesn't mean that TBs are necessarily discriminated against: I've seen some absolutely lovely full TBs and 3/4 TBs do exceptionally well (regardless of brand - a number of Selle Francais and Oldenburgs and other "warmbloods" that I've seen do very well are a very high percentage of TB blood). But it does mean that the entrant pool is lower. Simply anecdotally, one of my full TBs (thank you Fred) did quite well in the YEH series as a five year old, winning a couple classes, placing third in another, and winning the jumping section at the championships (5th overall - which was fair, as his conformation is decent but not spectacular). I had a 3/4 TB who was branded hanoverian who was reserve national champion as both a 4 and a 5 year old -he was a bit heavier of a type, but had a gorgeous gallop that was pure TB.

Moreover, from having been involved in the program for a number of years, I can say quite honestly that no one is looking for a warmblood per se - the idea is to look for the potential. The scores are weighted toward the gallop and the jump - just having a huge flashy trot is not going to get you very far if the jumping mechanics aren't there. Does it have to move well? Yes. An upper level prospect won't realistically be a high probability outcome if it moves like an eggbeater (sure, there are always ones who do it in spite of themselves, but it's a lower money bet than the great mover who is easy on himself).

I'd also note that there so far anyway seems to be a decent amount of success from the youngsters who did well in these events - I'd love to cross-correlate the scores in a couple of years when we have more data, but I can think of several (in particular, of Leslie Law's and Darren's) who have gone on to at least Intermediate and I think Advanced, and quite a few who are well-established at Preliminary. Not a "poodle show" by any means! I'd take any number of the youngsters from this year's championships home in a heartbeat, though I confess, BFNE, that I think your boy is particularly spectacular.

AKB
Oct. 20, 2009, 10:21 AM
I wonder if the FEH or YEH will select winning Training and Preliminary horses. After watching several FEH classes, my impression was that many of the breeders have no intention of having their babies end up at Advanced. Their goal is to breed winning Prelim horses for the adult amateur. Is the purpose of the FEH and YEH to select horses who will win at advanced, or is it to select horses who will win at Prelim, and stay sound at Prelim because of their good conformation? The average eventer has no aspirations to event at Advanced. I suspect the FEH will be producing lovely, expensive, winning, horses for the average eventer. Maybe we also need a Future Advanced Event Horse series that will be more geared to producing Advanced horses for the professional.

purplnurpl
Oct. 20, 2009, 10:23 AM
(Her older half-sister (13/16ths TB), who just came 2nd in her first Intermediate at age 7, would not have fared well in the YEH. She doesn't overjump and she doesn't snap her knees up unless she needs to, which is rarely -- which is not unusual for an athletic horse. She was also not into dressage at that age and was very immature physically.)

the script in bold.

I was looking over some young event horse pictures a month or so ago and I told my 4 coming 5 year old's owner..well, personally, I don't really want an event horse that is going to jump 4 foot over a ditch. Though spectacular looking, and very cool...not the greatest for an upper level run.
Though the kids do seem to quiet down with experience.

JMHO.

but that is what is rewarded. Derby Hunters.

Though the pictures from the YEHC at Fair Hill were quite pleasent. I even saw a horse with poor form over a fence or two in the top three.

subk
Oct. 20, 2009, 10:48 AM
Gotspots there are plenty of TBs competing in these classes. The excuse that they don't show up at the top because they aren't present does not hold up when you check the results. The prejudice against TBs clearly extends not just to the full TB but to anything with a majority TB blood.

I would strongly encourage some of you who are relying on the "oh, those WBs have a lot of TB blood" generalization to do a little research on the actual breeding of individual horses beyond their logos. In the 4 year old class the top five was dominated by horses with 50% or less TB blood. Horses with less than 50% TB blood are not abundant at ULs.

3dazey
Oct. 20, 2009, 10:54 AM
I was so interested to read that our own Kerry Milliken judged some type of YEH class that was held in conjunction with Burghley. A US former elite ULR judging the babies at Burghley...cool idea!

SparklePlenty
Oct. 20, 2009, 11:03 AM
What breeding our other Eventing Teams horses?? Is there a large presence of TB bloodlines in the German team? or the British? Do they hold YEH events internationally too? and If so what do those results show.

Comparisons here would be quite interesting. I'm not arguing TB blood versus WB's - just wondering if it's true across the nations? or if this just an "american" thing.

classen_eventer
Oct. 20, 2009, 11:09 AM
Just a thought. In my experience, TBs mature mentally a lot later than WBs. I have an OTT TB who did the 5 y/o YEH. He did OK. The judges comment was "This extremely athletic and talented horse lacks only rideability to be a top mount." He is now several years older, and Sharon White was just 2nd on him at Morven Park in his first intermediate. My point being, I think that frequently the TB brain takes longer to develop and chill out than the WB brain thus making the WBs look better at 4 or 5 years old, but, when the good TBs mature at 7 or 8 or 9, watch out..... I also think the WBs are born with dressage muscles, the TBs can get to the same place but it takes more time.

vineyridge
Oct. 20, 2009, 12:34 PM
The Europeans have a wonderful YEH competition every year at Le Lion d'Angers, and it does seem to be a good predictor of success at FEI levels. Now FEI levels run from 1* on up, but the top ten at Le Lion always seem to show up in FEI results. Even the Brits and Irish send their YH to France for the competition. BUT they are six and seven year olds, not 4 and 5 yos.

Maybe we could learn something from that competition. Has anyone here ever gone?

bornfreenowexpensive
Oct. 20, 2009, 12:45 PM
I'd take any number of the youngsters from this year's championships home in a heartbeat, though I confess, BFNE, that I think your boy is particularly spectacular.

Thanks:D I think he's a super boy too! I was more than pleased with how he performed (regardless of the fact that it was a white ribbon not a blue one;)). Ryan did a great job catch riding on him.

On the 50% breeding....it is also what they suck up. Some 50% horses have more of the desirable TB traits for eventing...have more TB gallop etc. I've known other 3/4 or even my mare that is 15/16th TB...that are heavier etc. AGAIN....you don't ride the pedigree.... You have to look at the individual horse...my gelding's full sister looks NOTHING like him. Breeding is a crap shoot.

And also consider...while I love a good TB...not all TBs make top event horses.....I've known many that I wouldn't take above novice.

There are also many WB that are not competitive in these classes. If finding the right type of horse to be a top UL event horse was easy...


I should add for full disclosure that I have a 5 year old OTTB that I like as much as my boy Muggle. But he was too green for the YEH classes this year since he only came off the track this spring (and started work in Sept.). And while I'd love a ton more like him...given his breeding, I could not afford to breed one like him (http://www.pedigreequery.com/loveton ). And finding quality ones like him on/off the track before they are hurt or mentally damaged is as much (if not more) of a crap shoot than breeding.

Not all the nice horses out there will do well in these classes or even enter these classes for a number of reasons. But what these classes are is a fun and easy way to get some exposure for your young horse (my guy has now been in a few big rings with tents and flags--Devon and Fair Hill--with lots of atmosphere before having to do a dressage test or jump course...every little bit of exposure like that helps prepare them for the future)....and these classes let people know who is out there breeding these horses and producing these horses.

pony grandma
Oct. 20, 2009, 01:07 PM
The Europeans have a wonderful YEH competition every year .... BUT they are six and seven year olds, not 4 and 5 yos.



YES!! :yes: I was just reading while eating a quick lunch. I had to log in for this.

I am very uncomfortable with starting my current 3 yr old jumping now to be ready for this as a 4 yr old. Even next year I don't want to have to push to jump what is required, esp the end of the 5 yr old year's current P level requirement.

The added time would level the playing field more, not add stress to growing horses, and also increase the entries. Now there's an idea. Or make it a 4-5 yr old and a 6-7 yr old competition so that the people that are in a hurry to market their animal can take their own chances and allow the rest of us to make our own decisions in the best interest of our animals.

JER
Oct. 20, 2009, 01:15 PM
The Europeans have a wonderful YEH competition every year at Le Lion d'Angers, and it does seem to be a good predictor of success at FEI levels.

Le Lion was held last weekend. The pdfs of the results and a recap are here (http://www.mondialdulion.com/2009/pages/accueil_gb.htm).

I'd like to clarify my original 'poodle' comment. My analogy was to a dog show, in which the individual breeds compete among themselves, then they go to the various groups with the group winners going on to the coveted Best in Show. The judge for the Best in Show (named well in advance of the show) is a dog judge who will be most experienced in one particular breed -- he/she may be a poodle breeder/exhibitor who moved on to judging poodles. If you sprinkle in some Gladwellian pseudoscience here, you could make the case that the judge has an inherent bias toward poodles. The judge got into dog showing out of a love for poodles, has experience in the finer points of poodles, prefers the poodle to other breeds. So perhaps this bias plays a part in the poodle being named best in show.

At the YEH Champs, 2 of 3 judges were Hannoverian breeders. I think you'd want a more varied panel of judges.

LLDM
Oct. 20, 2009, 01:52 PM
I rarely post when I haven't read every post, but I am pressed for time at the moment. A couple of things to consider...

I've pointed out many, many times that Inspections and In-Hand classes will always have issues inherently difficult to address when judging young stock for future performance. And as difficult as that is for specialists (i.e. Hunter, Dressage) it only increases geometrically for the all around athletic requirements of an Eventing horse.

Consider that every single breed and young horse competition *MUST* count conformation heavily. They are trying to predict both the ability to hold up under competitive stress and the physical attributes necessary to do the job. These are often, but not always necessary - but never sufficient.

We all know horses who shouldn't be able to do what they do due to various flaws. Fox example, a horse with super long pasterns might be a great 4* horse, but it is in spite of that fact, not because of it. How can one reward that, or overlook it in a young horse competition?

I used to have this argument with Pwynn all the time about breed inspections. I finally got her to understand it when I likened these things to SAT scores. They are an indicator, not a predictor. All bets are off once the career has started. Smart students can and do fail to become much. Not so bright students can end up millioniars or billionairs. There is no real predicting that either. But SATs DO help - on the front end and on the back end for improving the tests.

The judges can only look at the youngster in front of them and decide whether they would gamble their own dollars on it as a prospect. They don't get to take it home and live with it in their barn for a year. Or better yet, have someone send it to them, along with a bunch of money, and see how far they can get it along.

It is still very, very early for this program. And the more people participate, the better it can get. We also need to real data on breeding and performance correlations.

Boyd not know the sire and dam of Neville - and was asked at the Press Conference. Given that, be grateful anyone even tries to breed event horses. There certainly isn't much money in it.

We are babies when it comes to breeding for event performance in this country. And we will never get anywhere if we don't try to figure it out.

I will tell you what these "poodle" judges bring to the table. They are really good at looking at what is in front of them and seeing what the genetics are doing. They are looking at these horses like breeders do. Now, I think this is necessary if we are to have the right data for breeding decisions, but it might not be sufficient for the shorter term goals of performance.

So, how do you get the Karens and the Boyds and the Phillips to A) participate in the judging and B) Remember their performance horse's breeding? :)

Just another perspective.

SCFarm

JER
Oct. 20, 2009, 02:05 PM
I don't agree that breeding is a crap shoot.

Yes, there is always the surprise/variability/hereditability factor in breeding but you can make the odds work solidly in your favor. Otherwise, we wouldn't have longtime, successful breeders like Friedrich Butts, Sam Barr (Welton) or Jennie Loriston-Clarke (Catherston) or the O'Neills (Master Imp, King of Diamonds).

Successful stallions and broodmares are consistent in what they produce. It's up to the breeder to be rigorous in their research and honest about their mare's capabilities.

Over on the SHB, when people ask 'Who should I breed my mare to for an eventer?', the replies are usually a laundry list of stallions, most of which are being recommended by their owners (:eek:), very few of which have produced actual event horses. But the real answer is simple: look for a stallion that has a record of producing eventers from mares similar in type and breeding to your mare. If you want a UL eventer from your TB mare, breed to a stallion who produces UL eventers from a TB mare. It doesn't matter if the stallion was ever broke to ride or jumped a crossrail -- what matters is that he produces good eventers.

vineyridge
Oct. 20, 2009, 05:43 PM
Well, well, well

Andreas Dibowski came second in the six year olds at Le Lion with Mighty Magic, a young stallion by Mytens xx (son of Spectacular Bid) out of a Heraldik mare. He was the reserve German champion as a five year old. He's 3/4 TB with some more TB through his Hanoverian dam side, but he's branded Hanoverian.

Frank Ostholt came third with Sir Medicott, by Campbell (PS) out of a TB mare. I've found different Campbells, but PS usually means TB in French--Pur Sang. He might be Holsteiner or he might not.

It does appear from a brief scan of the results that the top horses were far less tb and more modern wb, but one of the last Butts horses was competing--FRH Butts Avedon--with Dibowski.

JER
Oct. 20, 2009, 05:49 PM
Mighty Magic's webpage. (http://www.agenturserver.org/kempkehof_neu/englisch/hengste_magic.htm)

bornfreenowexpensive
Oct. 20, 2009, 05:58 PM
I don't agree that breeding is a crap shoot.




Let me elaborate. I think it is a crap shoot in many ways. If you have a maiden mare...you can not be sure what she will produce and it will take a few years to really know what you have. Same with many sires as you have pointed out. Even with proven blood lines and producers.....I don't know about you, but IME there are a ton of risks with breeding just to get a healthy foal on the ground. Then you have to keep it healthy while it grows up.....not always an easy task. Frank Chapot said to me once....don't become attached to them until they are past the age of 5.

Then you need to make sure it is started right...and gotten into the right hands to compete (whether it is your own or some one else)...and hardest...keep them from getting hurt.

So for me....starting from scratch....it is a huge gamble to the point of being a crap shoot for me to breed and produce a horse to the upper levels. Yes there are breeders that are successful....but ask them how many of their offspring don't make it (to the ULs) for each one that does. Doesn't mean it isn't worth the throw of the dice (or trying to weight those dice to your advantage ;))

JER
Oct. 20, 2009, 06:21 PM
bfne, I agree with what you're saying, only I wouldn't equate the risks/decisions of the breeding-to-competition process with a crap shoot -- maybe the term just mystifies it too much for me. I like to rid breeding of its emotional/irrational elements whenever possible (which is why I don't often venture over to the breeding forum :winkgrin:).

vineyridge
Oct. 20, 2009, 06:24 PM
I don't think breeding is a complete crap shoot. You can certainly load the dice in your favor. That's why breeding is an art, not a science.

For instance, this weekend at Le Lion, Andrew Nicholson rode Tristar, a seven year old by Jumbo out of a TB mare. Jumbo's dam sire line goes back to Worden, i.e Wild Risk; and Tristar's dam sire line goes to Northern Baby, the most prolific NA chasing sire of recent years. We all know Jumbo's qualities as an event horse sire and putting him on top of a Northern Baby line mare should give stamina and jumping ability to lighten the mix.

flea52
Oct. 20, 2009, 06:35 PM
From what I have heard they are trying to get an ULR on the judging panel, at least for the championships. Sometimes the best mover/jumper isn't always the one you would pick to ride.

JER
Oct. 20, 2009, 06:41 PM
From what I have heard they are trying to get an ULR on the judging panel, at least for the championships. Sometimes the best mover/jumper isn't always the one you would pick to ride.

I'd advocate for a successful young horse producer over a ULR.

A ULR doesn't necessarily have the expertise and/or eye to select prospects -- they go to certain dealers or rely on the advice of others to help choose their youngsters. It's these brains we should be exploiting...

vineyridge
Oct. 20, 2009, 07:13 PM
FWIW, there were two full TBs, one 6yo and one 7yo, at Le Lion. The 7 yo was French (pedigree here: http://www.equineline.com/Free-5X-Pedigree.cfm?page_state=ORDER_AND_CONFIRM&reference_number=7045845&registry=T&horse_name==Cadeau%20Du%20Roi%20%28FR%29&dam_name==Cadora%20La%20Baronnie&foaling_year=2002&nicking_stats_indicator=Y ) and the 6yo was Swedish. She is by Be My Chief out of Rufiji by Magical Wonder.

Both full TBs finished, but down in the 30's.

elizabeth Callahan
Oct. 20, 2009, 07:57 PM
My YEH is 1/2 Tb, and is NOT an upper level prospect - she is or will be a ammie prelim horse. She deservedly belong in the bottom half of that group b/c although she is 1/2 Tb, she doesn't have a gallop. And that's ok. She does have a spectacular trot, which was not the deciding factor at Fair Hill.

I still like to compete to support the series and hopefully, as a breeder , to showcase young stock. I have produced a couple advanced horses, but a lot goes into other things rather than breeding ( such as making sure they get into the right hands)

And as a breeder, looking forward to the future ( my Intermediate mare is in foal to Mighty Magic for 2010). I think there are very few sure things - esp in breeding -and I think eventing is harder to breed for - courage is not always inherited!

bornfreenowexpensive
Oct. 20, 2009, 08:38 PM
And as a breeder, looking forward to the future ( my Intermediate mare is in foal to Mighty Magic for 2010). I think there are very few sure things - esp in breeding -and I think eventing is harder to breed for - courage is not always inherited!


Can't wait to see that one. I know there are others in the area who have bred to him for next year as well.

Fairview Horse Center
Oct. 20, 2009, 08:51 PM
My friend finished 9th in the 4 YO. Her horse was pasture injured this past spring, and stall bound for 2 months, so a bit of a late start for the year. Her horse may be listed as a TB/Dutch cross as he is out of a Nevada daughter, but by blood, he is 7/8th TB. She was only able to get to one qualifier, and luckily got he score she needed, so she is quite pleased with the finals result and her horse's limited mileage. I know the gallop hurt her, but I guess it is included into the jumping score. She said she really didn't have an understanding of the pace they were looking for.

denny
Oct. 20, 2009, 08:59 PM
A few years ago, during Rolex, we had a sporthorse breeding seminar, and Sam Barr (Welton Stud) was the keynote speaker.

Sam said we must remember that we breed today for the sport of about 10 years from now, when the hoped for foal will be about 9, just entering its best years.

So, what will eventing be 5-6-7 years down the road?

Will it be longer, faster than now? Will it stay about the same as `09? Or will it be even slower, shorter, and more technical?

That`s the guessing game, isn`t it? And what you breed needs to suit that future reality, whatever it may happen to be.

Beam Me Up
Oct. 20, 2009, 09:18 PM
Eventer futurity judging must be so much more challenging than hunters.
The bravery, the self-awareness, the quick-thinking reorganization, the ability to come back from a mistake, are all so hard to see in babies.

With hunters, I can see that if the judges like a 4 yo jumping a 3' course, it's quite likely they'll like the same 6 yo jumping a 3'6 course, making them an excellent predictor.

In eventing, it's also easy to identify the great movers and jumpers, very difficult to determine grit until a horse is truly tested.

The highest levels of our sport do include some mediocre movers, some unorthodox jumpers, some less than ideal conformation, precisely because these other qualities are most important.

Probably eventers will never put as much stock in futurities as other disciplines, for that reason (and related to the reason why most eventers don't spend the big bucks on young, unproven horses either), but I think that's just the nature of the beast.

kcrubin
Oct. 20, 2009, 10:45 PM
very interesting thread

subk
Oct. 20, 2009, 11:03 PM
Sam said we must remember that we breed today for the sport of about 10 years from now, when the hoped for foal will be about 9, just entering its best years.

So, what will eventing be 5-6-7 years down the road?
Denny I think this is a great point. However, it does need to be pointed out that some of the horses in the 5 year old class are already going Preliminary. One even has over 2 dozen total starts with about a half dozen of those at Preliminary. Many of those who haven't are on the brink. These are not a group of horses who are on track in the next few years to be UL horses, but on a track for the next few months!

LLDM
Oct. 21, 2009, 10:45 AM
I'd advocate for a successful young horse producer over a ULR.

A ULR doesn't necessarily have the expertise and/or eye to select prospects -- they go to certain dealers or rely on the advice of others to help choose their youngsters. It's these brains we should be exploiting...

I was thinking more of ULRs WITH experienced Breeders/young horse judges/inspectors. To cross pollinate. We have some experience and history on what young hunters and dressage horses need to succeed. And this is what we need to develop in the young eventing horse program.

You have a good point/perspective on who is currently responsible for getting prospects to riders. But I would hope that riders could learn more about the process and the current judges could learn more about the details of what the final results need to be.

I would also hope that everyone develops a more realistic view of what these classes are and what they can accomplish. People will continue to be disappointed if they believe there is some sort of clairvoyance that can be developed. They can only ever be about defining the right "type" and judging the individuals about how close they are to being that ideal type. Anything more than that requires significant changes in genetics and time-travel abilities!

The payoff down the road is better data - much better data which which we can load the dice on the genetics.

BTW and FWIW - it enough is known about the genetic background of a maiden mare the odds are pretty good about what she will produce or at least what she will not produce.

SCFarm