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View Full Version : MTB to contest BCC w/ Borel



War Admiral
Oct. 12, 2009, 05:02 PM
The Blood Horse announces Mine That Bird is still being pointed at the BCC and USA Today announces Borel to ride.

Not sure how I feel about either one, but I know I'm glad his stallcam is staying up! :lol:

rcloisonne
Oct. 12, 2009, 06:33 PM
Hope Borel gives him a better ride than he did in the Belmont. :(

Glimmerglass
Oct. 12, 2009, 07:20 PM
Good luck with that. I suppose their view would be "why not thy not try for some little pice of the prize and some of the glory before the race." However I just don't see it myself.

He wasn't blown away in the Goodwood - less then 4 lengths off at the end - however against a Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, Summer Bird, Gitano Hernando and others cited as 'maybe' for running it doesn't look good.

Calvin said he didn't like the surface much and was a bit tired. Listen to your jockey and rethink your plans folks ...

Toadie's mom
Oct. 12, 2009, 09:07 PM
Good luck with that. I suppose their view would be "why not thy not try for some little pice of the prize and some of the glory before the race." However I just don't see it myself.

He wasn't blown away in the Goodwood - less then 4 lengths off at the end - however against a Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, Summer Bird, Gitano Hernando and others cited as 'maybe' for running it doesn't look good.

Calvin said he didn't like the surface much and was a bit tired. Listen to your jockey and rethink your plans folks ...

Well yeah, and since this is the 2nd time he's bombed on that surface I'll bet against him. I don't think changing his shoes is going to make diddly squat difference against the competition he'll be facing in the Classic. I can hardly wait for the decisions of the Zenyatta and Sea the Stars camps!!!!!!!!!

Gestalt
Oct. 12, 2009, 09:38 PM
I don't think STS is coming and Z is running with the "girls", so they aren't part of the picture. I like Calvin as the jockey, yeah he made a mistake in the Belmont, but I think he is good at keeping MTB calm.

I like the little bird. With some more training under his belt he might pull off a win. I'm tied between him and Summer Bird. :)

Glimmerglass
Oct. 12, 2009, 10:40 PM
I have no knocks on Calvin with the Belmont on MTB as no one can pull off that perfect timed rail rubbing trip time and again. By comparison Summer Bird has proven himself to be a better horse with the Belmont victory, the Travers Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup and even in spite of the loss in the Haskell against Rachel.

MTB might have a lot of heart, his owners may be folk with a lot of NASCAR appeal, and they aren't offering up excuses which is refreshing. That said when you don't win the Preakness, Belmont, West Virginia Derby or Goodwood and for 2009 have a record of 7 starts 1-2-2 you have to wonder was it a fluke.

More specifically he totally bombed on the Santa Anita surface in the BC JV last year finishing 12th, and just finished 6th in the Goodwood on the same and yet somehow he's going to have a come to Jesus moment and pull off a victory in the BCC? Maybe so and that's why the run the races ....

Blinkers On
Oct. 12, 2009, 10:51 PM
It's a shame when the trainer's "ego" gets in the way of the horse. The little warrior needs a break... it proves nothing to run up the track... JMO

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 13, 2009, 12:24 AM
It's a shame when the trainer's "ego" gets in the way of the horse. The little warrior needs a break... it proves nothing to run up the track... JMO

He just had a 10 week break. And an 8 week break before that. Yesterday was his second race since June 6th.
Maybe he needs a new trainer.

WinterTriangle
Oct. 13, 2009, 02:49 AM
MTBs running style will lose him more races than wins. He's a come from behind, or at least, is the way he is ridden. Love the little horse, just not at SA.

Summerbird has no races on fake AW surface. Which is why I avoided Swift Temper like the plague in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland yesterday. She went off as the favorite and ran.........8th. Dirt horse.

I'm just learning the fake surface, but it seems like turf horses do okay on it, or horses used to running on it, but true dirt horses do not.

So, I would have grave concerns about SB on the SA surface.

You have horses like Gitano Hernando, who are synth specialists, he broke track record on it and his synth record was awesome. And Colonel John, and Richard's Kid. These horses trained by CA trainers, or AW specialists with jocks used to riding it.

All the horses who hit the board in the Goodwood had sire stats where offspring had won on the SA surface specifically, and then you had Gitano, from Europe, who specializes on it.

That's going to be my *rule* for the BC races that aren't on turf. Smart money will go on the euros and the ones that run on this fake stuff.

As for MTB jock, not dissing Borel in any way, but he has experience at churchilll......practically zero at SA or Belmont. WHen you are trying to win a huge stakes race, it makes sense to get a jock who knows the track, the subtleties, the lay of the land. Borel is great, but no jock can be great *everywhere*. That's why certain jocks have high % at just certain tracks. They know it like the back of their hand. Therefore, if I were wooley, I would think about this.

The problem with an "outsider" like MTB is that he hadnt raced here a lot, and Wooley doesn't have an "in" in the jockey colonies of every track, or enough horses to have a "regular" rider for his horse. Etiher that, or he is just being loyal to Borel, who knws

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 13, 2009, 08:52 AM
MTBs running style will lose him more races than wins. He's a come from behind, or at least, is the way he is ridden. Love the little horse, just not at SA.

Summerbird has no races on fake AW surface. Which is why I avoided Swift Temper like the plague in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland yesterday. She went off as the favorite and ran.........8th. Dirt horse.

I'm just learning the fake surface, but it seems like turf horses do okay on it, or horses used to running on it, but true dirt horses do not.

So, I would have grave concerns about SB on the SA surface.

You have horses like Gitano Hernando, who are synth specialists, he broke track record on it and his synth record was awesome. And Colonel John, and Richard's Kid. These horses trained by CA trainers, or AW specialists with jocks used to riding it.

All the horses who hit the board in the Goodwood had sire stats where offspring had won on the SA surface specifically, and then you had Gitano, from Europe, who specializes on it.

That's going to be my *rule* for the BC races that aren't on turf. Smart money will go on the euros and the ones that run on this fake stuff.

As for MTB jock, not dissing Borel in any way, but he has experience at churchilll......practically zero at SA or Belmont. WHen you are trying to win a huge stakes race, it makes sense to get a jock who knows the track, the subtleties, the lay of the land. Borel is great, but no jock can be great *everywhere*. That's why certain jocks have high % at just certain tracks. They know it like the back of their hand. Therefore, if I were wooley, I would think about this.

The problem with an "outsider" like MTB is that he hadnt raced here a lot, and Wooley doesn't have an "in" in the jockey colonies of every track, or enough horses to have a "regular" rider for his horse. Etiher that, or he is just being loyal to Borel, who knws

Gitano Hernando is not a synth specialist. Coming into the Goodwood he had run on it TWO times, both on Poly, which is the exact same stuff that MTB became a 2yo champion on in Canada and indeed qualified for the KY Derby on. In fact MTB had more runs and indeed more wins on synth than GH.
It's funny how MTB is now suddenly a "dirt" horse, and Gitano Hernando is a Euro "turf" horse, even though his owners both him to run in the Belmont and possibly the KY Derby.

War Admiral
Oct. 13, 2009, 09:24 AM
Geeze, Glimmer, you lose the family homestead on him or something? :confused:

1-2-3 in the TC races hardly makes him Canonero II... Let's not forget he woulda HAD Rachel in the Preak if he'd had a better ride or 4 more strides. She was done and he was closing like a freight train. No, the little big hoss has earned his right to hunt with this pack; he's a genuine stakes horse all right...

Yeah, he was dead last in the BC Juvenile last year against far lesser company - under a different trainer. That kinda suggests to me that since he was 6th there this year in tougher company under Woolley's management, he IS improving, and the LAST thing you'd do at this point is change the trainer.

That said: clearly he does not like the footing, and I'm not optimistic of his chances at Santa Anita period. WinterTriangle's assessment has the ring of truth to it on two key counts: the analysis of the footing and of MTB's running style. BUT we still don't actually know who is seriously coming in for the BCC... As of this writing, a lot of supposed "key" players haven't declared... And several of them are horses he has beaten before even when he ran 2nd or 3rd... He may not have WON against them but his nose was still in front of theirs at the line!

While a Summer Bird/Mine That Bird rematch would be fascinating, I do think that a more entertaining sporting proposition would be to run MTB in the BC Marathon, but that's just me.

I'm fond of the little guy whether he wins or not.

Glimmerglass
Oct. 13, 2009, 09:50 AM
Geeze, Glimmer, you lose the family homestead on him or something? :confused:

Lets been exceedingly clear - you can still be a fan, you can still root for a horse who has no chance and you can still love that horse. There are several horses running that I follow who more often then not are over their heads and I know won't win.

I actually won money on MTB in the Derby as I knew Calvin's strength was at CD and enhanced on a off-track. So no, he's never burned me.

This sport is a business. Hate that fact or not but it is one. There is a cost to shipping, training, hauling and stabling a horse to a track. Further and more importantly there is a cost to the horse - their abilities are not infinite. So decisions should be made sparingly and wisely. I'm still baffled about the Travers skip or why they didn't shift gears and contest the Penn Derby. Some confidence could've been restored and some good coin could've been made.

I'll go back to the question: why are they running Mine That Bird in the Breeders' Cup Classic off a four race losing streak? Is it to win? Are they shooting for place money? Is it for the mere prestige for being "in" in the Breeders' Cup?

DLee
Oct. 13, 2009, 10:09 AM
Sorry, I laugh at "he would have HAD Rachel"... :lol: Just like everyone else has "had" her, right?

War Admiral
Oct. 13, 2009, 10:31 AM
I'll go back to the question: why are they running Mine That Bird in the Breeders' Cup Classic off a four race losing streak? Is it to win? Are they shooting for place money? Is it for the mere prestige for being "in" in the Breeders' Cup?

Well, let's look at the current probables list:

Gio Ponte
Mastercraftsman (the one I think is the likeliest spoiler, TBH)
Rip Van Winkle
Macho Again
Awesome Gem
Summer Bird

This isn't a particularly terrifying list, to my eye, save for Mastercraftsman and MAYBE Summer Bird. There's nothing in there MTB can't beat when on his game. I'd happily take the place/show money out of $5 million...

DLee: laugh away, then go watch the rerun. He was right there closing fast on that filly at the line.

DLee
Oct. 13, 2009, 10:41 AM
Yes, I saw the race. There is no telling what she would have done when she saw him. Not sure how you know she was "done". She was at the wire first, period. All year long.

LaurieB
Oct. 13, 2009, 11:25 AM
Yes, I saw the race. There is no telling what she would have done when she saw him. Not sure how you know she was "done". She was at the wire first, period. All year long.

:yes: :yes: :yes:

War Admiral
Oct. 13, 2009, 12:20 PM
Not sure how you know she was "done".

Maybe because her own jockey SAID she was done?? He's probably in a better position to judge how much horse he had left at the finish than any number of armchair quarterbacks. ;)

DLee
Oct. 13, 2009, 12:31 PM
And who's calling me an armchair quarterback? Why, an armchair quarterback. :lol:

Hey, I'm a MTB fan as well. I'm just saying, Rachel has beaten everything that showed up this year. And it gets old hearing people say 'woulda, shoulda, coulda' about her races. If only...

I think Curlin would have won the Derby if there hadn't been such traffic. Oh well. There was, and he didn't. You don't know MTB would have caught Rachel. I don't know he wouldn't have. End of story.

danceronice
Oct. 13, 2009, 12:36 PM
Maybe because her own jockey SAID she was done?? He's probably in a better position to judge how much horse he had left at the finish than any number of armchair quarterbacks. ;)

Combine that with the fact that he gave her five pounds and was closing while having had a bad trip, and her connections have never put her in a longer race, I still have doubts that she can do distance, and I believe at even weights she definitely couldn't win going farther. I think we'll learn a lot more next year if she starts having to carry handicap weights or they start running her at a 1 1/4 or better. I agree with War Admiral that she was done and I've seen no evidence to the contrary--she's got a specialist distance at which she's so far unbeatable, but 1 1/4 is another story. (And we won't know how she would handle the surface, against horses who've run well on it.)

It's academic anyway, she's done for the year and STS is done period, so I'm rooting for Summer Bird and hoping MTB will make a good showing. 1-2-3 in the Triple Crown is nothing to be ashamed of, nor would finishing in the top 3 in the Classic.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 13, 2009, 12:46 PM
You can't hold the weight allowance against RA. That's the WFA scale, she's a filly and deserves it and would get it any where in the world.
You can't expect them to race off level weights, otherwise you'd never ever see fillies race against colts. Colts are bigger, stronger and faster, you have to level the playing field.

slvrblltday
Oct. 13, 2009, 01:37 PM
Love the little guy, but the stars aligned for MTB on Derby day, one of those stars being him at the peak of his form cycle (hence his good performance in the Preakness). He is a gr. II performer in my opinion, Giacomo in bay clothing at best, and absolutely nothing I can find suggests the BCC at Santa Anita is a race he'll do well in.

danceronice
Oct. 13, 2009, 03:39 PM
You can't hold the weight allowance against RA. That's the WFA scale, she's a filly and deserves it and would get it any where in the world.
You can't expect them to race off level weights, otherwise you'd never ever see fillies race against colts. Colts are bigger, stronger and faster, you have to level the playing field.

NOt to totally sidetrack this, but do you HONESTLY think, given how she races against her own sex, that RA is by any stretch of the imagination an ordinary filly who needs the playing field leveled? The handicapper who put the weights on them for the Woodward certainly didn't think so, and the closeness of the finish suggests he was right on. The next time she went in a handicap I'd put 130 or 132 on her and see what happens, unless the race was 1 1/4 or more. And if I owned a filly or mare, unless that mare was named Zenyatta I wouldn't come near a race with RA without a minimum six-pound allowance to me. At least. And if I owned a 3-year-old colt I wouldn't put him against her in anything shorter than 1 1/4 if I had to give weight to her. She's not a normal filly and shouldn't be treated as such.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 13, 2009, 03:50 PM
NOt to totally sidetrack this, but do you HONESTLY think, given how she races against her own sex, that RA is by any stretch of the imagination an ordinary filly who needs the playing field leveled? The handicapper who put the weights on them for the Woodward certainly didn't think so, and the closeness of the finish suggests he was right on.

Er, what handicapper are you talking about? The Woodward is WFA, she ran with an age allowance AND a sex allowance, as she was perfectly entitled to do.
4yo+ 126lbs
3yo 121lbs
F/Ms 3lbs allowance


The next time she went in a handicap I'd put 130 or 132 on her and see what happens, unless the race was 1 1/4 or more. And if I owned a filly or mare, unless that mare was named Zenyatta I wouldn't come near a race with RA without a minimum six-pound allowance to me. At least. And if I owned a 3-year-old colt I wouldn't put him against her in anything shorter than 1 1/4 if I had to give weight to her. She's not a normal filly and shouldn't be treated as such.

If you run in a WFA races you are in essence running off level weights, with allowance for sex and age. What next, are you going to demand that Summer Bird, Rip Van Winkle and Mine that Bird carry the same weight as Colonel John, Gio Ponti, Richard's kid and Tiago in the BC Classic?

Blinkers On
Oct. 13, 2009, 08:19 PM
He just had a 10 week break. And an 8 week break before that. Yesterday was his second race since June 6th.
Maybe he needs a new trainer.

I agree, but he likely needs time o decompress... time out of the trailer, time away from the grind..they aren't machines afterall

WinterTriangle
Nov. 12, 2009, 12:05 AM
I agree, but he likely needs time o decompress...

I think Wooley finally acknowledged that after the BC, mentioning the horse is getting a long rest and had travelled 7,000 miles this year. The clocker reports workout guys described him as looking "dead fit" before the race. And Borel was riding Ready's Echo the race before, so I thought it would give him some insight to the track.

I like MTB, I like his personality. So, if he wins or loses, doesn't matter ----

What the heck happened to Einstein? He was really at the back there. I expected him to hit the board. He's one of my favorite horses, because he's smart like his namesake.:)


What I always find interesting is WHAT draws us to certain horses and leaves us cool to others? I've seen Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Summer Bird, Gayego, etc. all race in person. Feel something for some, not for others, and don't even know WHY. Or, fall for some claimer, can't help but put them on my watchlist. Who knows. Chemistry.

RedEqHunter
Nov. 12, 2009, 10:01 AM
I also like MTB's personality. We watched him work out at Saratoga several times this summer. He would come onto the track just bebopping along. After the workout he would be so much more alert and on his toes. A little guy with a lot of heart!