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Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 1, 2009, 08:55 AM
Thread for discussion of the big race.

vineyridge
Oct. 1, 2009, 09:26 AM
I was wondering when this one was going to get started. :)

Race is Sunday. Chances of rain Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Who is running who is considered to have a chance against Sea The Stars? I've searched the Racing Post and cannot find a starting field. Of course nominations aren't final until Friday morning, but this was the best I could find.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/popup_pricebox.sd?pricebox_uid=2340802

Unless I can't read, the Arc pays 4 million euros. WOW!

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 1, 2009, 09:48 AM
Arc is on Sunday, at 4pm local time.
Field won't be announced till tomorrow at 10am. The rain is not expected to be more than a sprinkle, they have actually been watering the course up until yesterday. The clerk of the course is aiming for an official rating of good ground by Sunday afternoon.
There will close to 20 runners. Stacelita and Cavalryman were supplemented this morning. Spanish Moon was pulled out yesterday, connections said they want no part of STS and are heading to Canada and the BC Turf instead.

Here is the line up so far. There will probably be a couple of more defections by tomorrow morning, possibly one or two of the Ballydoyle entries.

Prix de l' Arc G1
€4,000,000 (~$5.83m)
2400m (~12f or 1½m)
For entire colts and fillies, 3yo and up.
4yo+ H - 59.5kg (~131lbs)
4yo+ M - 58kg (~128lbs)
3yo C - 56kg (~123lbs)
3yo F - 54.5kg (~120lbs)


NO. -- FORM -- HORSE -- AGE -- WGT -- TRAINER
1 233 -- Youmzain -- 6 --131lbs-- M R Channon —
2 231 -- Conduit -- 4 -- 131lbs -- Sir Michael Stoute —
3 112 -- Vision D´Etat -- 4 -- 131lbs -- E Libaud —
4 135 -- Magadan -- 4 -- 131lbs -- E Lellouche —
5 555 -- The Bogberry -- 4 -- 131lbs -- A De Royer-Dupre —
6 785 -- Steele Tango -- 4 -- 131lbs -- R A Teal —
7 121 -- Getaway -- 6 -- 131lbs -- J Hirschberger —
8 522 -- Tullamore -- 4 -- 131lbs -- Z Koplik — -
9 125 -- Hot Six -- 4 -- 130lbs -- G Duarte — - -
10 111d -- Dar Re Mi -- 4 -- 128lbs -- J H M Gosden —
11 949 -- Tangaspeed -- 4 -- 128lbs -- R Laplanche —
12 353 -- La Boum -- 6 -- 128lbs Robert Collet —
13 462 -- Beheshtam -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A De Royer-Dupre —
14 239 -- Set Sail -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A P O´Brien —
15 212 -- Fame And Glory -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A P O´Brien —
16 111 -- Cavalryman -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A Fabre —
17 014 -- Johann Zoffany -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A P O´Brien —
18 -14 -- Grand Ducal -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A P O´Brien —
19 111 -- Sea The Stars -- 3 -- 123lbs --John M Oxx —
20 111 -- Stacelita -- 3 --120lbs--- J-C Rouget —

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 1, 2009, 10:25 AM
The biggest treats to STS are (my opinion, so take it for what it's worth!)
Vision d'Etat... has been prepped to perfection this year, and he's French, they win this race most of the time.
Fame and Glory... has gone down twice to STS, once in the Derby which many considered to be paceless, and over 10f in the Irish Champion Stakes, not his prefered distance. In a true test of stamina, and F&G will have the benefit of several pacemakers, then he is in with a shout.
Da Ra Mi... Incredibly impressive over the course and distance in the Prix Vermielle, before she was controversially disqualified. Plus she loves good ground. Has never actually raced against males, which is unusual for an older filly in Europe, but this race has been kind to distaff runners in the past.
Cavalryman... Lighted raced, at least in top company. Winner of the Grand Prix de Paris, and the Prix Neil, in neither of which he beat a whole lot in the way of quality. But strikes as one of those French dark horses that has been campaigned all year with this race as the ultimate goal. Reminds me a lot of Bago and Rail Link in that respect.

I don't think Conduit, despite his win in the King George, has the class to beat STS. Youzmain, the perennial bridesmaid in this race is a step off his best I think (though Kieren Fallon sure has been talking him up). Stacelita, the unbeaten daughter of Monsun, was actually well beaten by Dar Re Mi in the Vermielle but unfairly benefited from the DQ. She does have the benefit of the nice weight break that 3yo fillies get (11lbs), but I don't believe she will get the distance.

juliet
Oct. 1, 2009, 11:42 AM
U.S. will show races of the day.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 1, 2009, 10:35 PM
Undercard races at Longchamp this weekend.

Prix de la Foret (G1) (3yo+) 7f --- Goldikova shortens up to 7f in her last run before the BC Mile.

Prix de l´Abbaye de Longchamp (G1) (2yo+) 5f --- Europe's championship sprint. Speedy 2yo, Monsuier Chevalier, lines up against the 8yo Benbaum.

Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) (2yo Fillies) 1m

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (G1) (2yo Colts & Fillies) 7f

Prix de l´Opera (G1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) 1m2f

Prix du Cadran (G1) (4yo+) 2m4f --- the greatest stayer of modern times, Yeats, makes his final career start.

WinterTriangle
Oct. 2, 2009, 07:42 AM
Thank you, DRV, for the wonderful breakdown. It's hard to find people who follow international racing.

I can't get excited about the Belmont card this weekend, 4-8 horses in the stakes races BEFORE scratches.:(

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 2, 2009, 09:26 AM
Final field. As expected O'Brien withdrew one the three pacemakers he had entered. This leaves a field of nineteen runners. STS gets the 6 hole.

Post NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER Jockey
1 -- 1 -- Youmzain -- 6 -- 131lbs -- M R Channon — -- K Fallon
2 -- 10 -- Dar Re Mi -- 4 -- 128lbs -- J H M Gosden — -- J Fortune
3 -- 7 -- Getaway -- 6 -- 131lbs -- J Hirschberger — -- S Pasquier
4 -- 9 -- Hot Six -- 4 -- 130lbs -- G Duarte — -- TJ Periera
5 -- 18 -- Grand Ducal -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A P O´Brien — -- PJ Smullen
6 -- 19 -- Sea The Stars -- 3 -- 123lbs -- John M Oxx — -- MJ Kinane
7 -- 6 -- Steele Tango -- 4 -- 131lbs -- R A Teal — -- D Holland
8 -- 12 -- La Boum -- 6 -- 128lbs -- Robert Collet — -- T Jarnet
9 -- 3 -- Vision D´Etat -- 4 -- 131lbs -- E Libaud — -- O Peslier
10 -- 15 -- Fame And Glory -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A P O´Brien — -- J Murtagh
11 -- 11 -- Tangaspeed -- 4 -- 128lbs -- R Laplanche — -- I Mendizabal
12 -- 2 -- Conduit -- 4 -- 131lbs -- Sir Michael Stoute — -- R Moore
13 -- 8 -- Tullamore -- 4 -- 131lbs -- Z Koplik — -- V Janacek
14 -- 14 -- Set Sail -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A P O´Brien — -- SM Levey
15 -- 13 -- Beheshtam -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A De Royer -- G Moose
16 -- 20 -- Stacelita -- 3 -- 120lbs -- C Rouget — -- CP Lemaire
17 -- 4 -- Magadan -- 4 -- 131lbs -- E Lellouche — -- A Crastus
18 -- 5 -- The Bogberry -- 4 -- 131lbs -- A De Royer -- M Kappushev
19 -- 16 -- Cavalryman -- 3 -- 123lbs -- A Fabre — -- L Dettori

vineyridge
Oct. 2, 2009, 09:44 AM
I LOVE Yeats. He is one for the history books. So beautiful and such a special race horse. I hope he is a good a sire as he is a runner.

Vision D'Etat has a pedigree to die for. If he wins the Arc, would there be a chance he might come for the Breeder's Cup?

Mara
Oct. 2, 2009, 10:10 AM
What about the 2 year-old races? Anyone know much about the current Euro hopes from that crop?

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 2, 2009, 11:20 AM
What about the 2 year-old races? Anyone know much about the current Euro hopes from that crop?

The Grand Criterium, the big 2yo race, is not very deep this year. Coolmore and Godolphin have sent what is probably their 2nd or 3rd strings. I don't know much about the French entries, but the Fabre trained and German owned Loupe de Vega looks intersting, and apparently won very handily last time out. Of course an impressive win in the Grand Criterium could catapult one of these to the top of the class.
Coolmore have a nice filly, Cabaret, in the Marcel Bourac, the 2yo fillies race.

Most of the big guns in the 2yo ranks are being pointed at the Dewhurst at Newmarket in 2 weeks time, so that would be the race to watch. The Timeform Millions also at Newmarket, also tomorrow, has some interesting entries too (however, it's a restricted race, with a huge purse, about $1.6m, only open to horses that have gone through the sales ring at the Tattersall's yearling sales).

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 2, 2009, 11:32 AM
I LOVE Yeats. He is one for the history books. So beautiful and such a special race horse. I hope he is a good a sire as he is a runner.

Vision D'Etat has a pedigree to die for. If he wins the Arc, would there be a chance he might come for the Breeder's Cup?

There have been serious rumblings that Yeats will get his chance as a flat sire. The general consensus all along has been that he would be banished to a life as a NH sire, his prowess as a stayer being the kiss of death for a flat stallion. However J Magnier has mentioned now on a couple of occasions that there have been serious inquiries as to breeding good flat mares to him. I really hope he is given the chance, and that Coolmore themselves patronise him with some of their mares. It would be a radical departure, and frankly he may have a lot to offer the breed, he's nothing if not durable.

Vision d'Etat is not BC nominated, so if he goes to Santa Anita they will have to pony up some serious dough. If he did go it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the Classic as opposed to the Turf, as he's probably a better 10f horse than over 12f.
Interesting tidbit about this horse. He almost didn't get the chance to be a flat horse. His sire, Chichicastenango, stood as a dual purpose sire in France (he has since been sent to Japan, oddly enough) siring both flat runners and jumpers. VdeE's dam has produced jumpers, including Milan Deaux Mille who ran in the Grand National last year. When Vision d'Etat went through the Arquana sale as a 2yo, the underbidder that day was an Irish buyer who's intent was to buy him as a NH prospect (French jumpers are all in vogue these days). Had he not been outbid, it's likely the Vision d'Etat would be just being put under saddle right now in Ireland as a 4yo and being pointed at a Novice hurdle. Instead he's a multiple G1 winner with a Derby to his name and real live shot at the Arc.
Funny old world sometimes.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 2, 2009, 01:41 PM
A few Arc's from years past to whet the appetite.

1999 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE30hM1wCNY) - Montjeu wears down the Japanese horse El condor Pasa who tried to steal a win off the front.

1986 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctctzyl-0d8) - Dancing Brave, in one of the most impressive wins seen anywhere. He covers the final furlong in about 10 secs.. explosive!!

2008 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYR8vaj_fk0) - Super filly Zarakava blows them away in a spine tingling performance.

1965 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9wX2PEEZ_c) - Seabird stakes his claim for European horse of the century with one of the greatest Arc performances seen. A field that included the winners of the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby, French Derby, Russian Derby and Tom Rolfe who had won the Preakness and finished 3rd and 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont.

1956 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U13c45h__4Q) - The Italian stallion, Ribot, wins his second Arc defeating a field that included American champions Career Boy and Fisherman. Would that latter day American owners be as adventurous as ol' C.V Whitney was back then.

Galileo1998
Oct. 3, 2009, 10:10 AM
Youmzain seems too big at 20/1 for me. He's been 2nd in the last two runnings, and tends to be there or thereabouts at the finish in most of his races.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 3, 2009, 10:24 AM
Goldikova overturned in the Foret!!
Very strangely ridden ridden race, went hell for leather for 6f and faded in the final furlong to finish 3rd.
Odd approach for a filly that is normally held up and produced for a late run. Overconfidence on the part of Peslier?

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 3, 2009, 10:27 AM
Youmzain seems too big at 20/1 for me. He's been 2nd in the last two runnings, and tends to be there or thereabouts at the finish in most of his races.

There or thereabouts, but rarely wins.
Still for those that can back each-way, 20/1 is fantastic value. Some bookies have him as short as 15/1, probably for that very reason, not because they think he has a 15/1 chance of winning.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 3, 2009, 06:53 PM
Replay of the big upset, Goldikova loses the Prix de la Foret (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuJLT8GKQ8o)

lindasp62
Oct. 3, 2009, 07:28 PM
Someone, please post the results of this race ASAP when it is finished. Unfortunatly, do not get HRTV. Thanks!

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 4, 2009, 09:46 AM
Big race off in 30 minutes.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:16 AM
Loading.

Now, this is weird...... I've got butterflies!!

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:20 AM
Oh.. my GOD!!!!

kcmel
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:21 AM
Sea the Stars wins!

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:22 AM
I feel privileged to have seen that..

SEA THE STARS.... overcomes traffic problems, and running rank on the back stretch, to unleash an amazing turn of foot to write himself into the history books.
One for the ages.

Mara
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:22 AM
Sea The Stars, easily.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:26 AM
Btw.... more history made at Longchamp today..... guess who was 2nd?

YOUMZAIN!!!

That's the third year in a row.

Mara
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:29 AM
Does Christopher Tsui stand stallions? I don't believe so, but not sure.

If not, how much do you think the Maktoums shell out for Sea The Stars? (Come on, you know there's some validity to the question!)

Las Olas
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:32 AM
Sea The Stars. A rare example of a very nice mare reproducing herself.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 4, 2009, 10:33 AM
There is talk that the Tsui's will stand him at the Irish National Stud, their racing manager is also manager of the INS.
They also have a relationship with Magnier in the past. So wouldn't be unheard of if he went to Coolmore.
I think Shiek Mo is probably on the phone offering them whole of Dubai in exchange for STS. Seriously, how much is this horse worth? He has everything, one of the best horses to ever set foot on a track and a pedigree to die for.

Hilldale
Oct. 4, 2009, 11:11 AM
It's up on youtube in French - what an amazing run!! This is the link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1gCT5OYoEY

Amyy
Oct. 4, 2009, 11:30 AM
thanks for posting the video!

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 4, 2009, 11:34 AM
The Prix Cadran up next. Yeats looks like a million bucks in the paddock. What a specimen he his.

Amyy
Oct. 4, 2009, 11:56 AM
Yeats came in third, a good effort

Equilibrium
Oct. 4, 2009, 12:43 PM
I was actually moved to tears today watching that which is rare, but he really is Amazing. And in the first 2 furlongs I was a bit worried when he didn't settle and then lost so many places. The gears he has are out of this world.

What a great year for racing!

May I dare say this horse should stand in the States. Why not? America could use a real legit distance horse who isn't just a plodder. And it something that use to be done all the time, buying stallions from Europe to stand in the States. Probably won't happen, but it would be nice!:)

Terri

harvestmoon
Oct. 4, 2009, 12:47 PM
Wow, there are no words. Completely amazing! Brought tears to my eyes.

What a horse!!!

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 4, 2009, 01:44 PM
Here's the replay in English (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f824CU-F3rc), Jim McGrath doing the commentary for the BBC, with post race coverage and race analysis, about 10 minutes total.
Very good quality picture too.

vineyridge
Oct. 4, 2009, 01:56 PM
I was actually moved to tears today watching that which is rare, but he really is Amazing. And in the first 2 furlongs I was a bit worried when he didn't settle and then lost so many places. The gears he has are out of this world.

What a great year for racing!

May I dare say this horse should stand in the States. Why not? America could use a real legit distance horse who isn't just a plodder. And it something that use to be done all the time, buying stallions from Europe to stand in the States. Probably won't happen, but it would be nice!:)

Terri

I dunno how he'd do. I think right now the American mare base is very different from what it was when sires like Nasrullah and Teddy and his sons were imported. He's already 1/2 American from the Mr. P/ND cross, so except for Ahonoora and his German lines, there isn't all that much he could add. Now if someone were to suggest importing Shirocco, that would be a major plus in my thinking. Of course, American breeders are definitely closed minded on generational breeding.

I keep thinking about Sea Bird who did quite well as a sire in Europe and failed here, more or less. And Bahram. If we had mares with Teddy or his sons close up, that would be what's needed. JMHO, naturally.

kcmel
Oct. 4, 2009, 01:58 PM
Thanks for the English link. I've been looking for it. Great coverage!

tbmorgan
Oct. 4, 2009, 08:46 PM
I feel so very privileged to have been able to watch that race.

Wow. Just wow.


Katja

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 6, 2009, 10:16 AM
I normally can't stand "tribute" videos to horses, as most of them are super cheesy. But this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SzQef1bMqc) is a nice retrospective of his magnificent campaign this year.
What a horse and what a year it's been.

Drvmb1ggl3
Oct. 6, 2009, 10:23 AM
Another video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fd_B-Z7WKFQ) with less interrupted race coverage. The music is way too load though.

Horseforthecourse
Oct. 6, 2009, 11:32 AM
I normally can't stand "tribute" videos to horses, as most of them are super cheesy. But this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SzQef1bMqc) is a nice retrospective of his magnificent campaign this year.
What a horse and what a year it's been.

God that was beautiful. He's the best horse in the world.

Barnfairy
Oct. 6, 2009, 01:27 PM
Agreed. The tribute video was all inspiration and heart, devoid of schlock and cheez. Even the soundtrack was good.