Foal Potential

[stoicfish]

Firstly, I am not a breeder, only one foal this year. Was at an inspection recently and was wondering if someone can really tell the potential of a foal? I read in an article by Dr Ludwig Christmann that suggested that the foals that are brilliant movers probably do not end up high level dressage horses. Everyone selling, of course has beautiful foals.
So can you really tell? Or is there many talented horses that started out looking/moving like swamp donkeys?
I bred for a jumper, but he hasn’t jumped over his mother or any other wondrous things. I know jumping is hereditary, so is jumping a more accurate talent to judge at an early age, more so than dressage?


Pun noted :D

[stolensilver]

No expert here but of all the stages young horses go through I find it the most difficult to assess a foal. Unless there are glaring faults with them they all seem to have light, effortless movement with well flexed hocks and expressive front legs. So I can't really help you much. Give me a gawky yearling or a bum high 2yo any day. Then I can seperate the good ones from the average ones with a fair amount of accuracy.

One thing I do know is that jumping ability can be in there but not appear till the horse is taught how to jump. A breeder I used to know sold a 2yo because they did not seem to be able to jump. He could put them in the school, lie a pole on the ground across the gateway and know that the horse would not go over the pole. That horse went on to compete at the Olympics in showjumping.

[woweezowee]

I am always stumped when people say, "I bought him when he was 3 days old... i just KNEW!!" I wonder HOW?!?!?!

One thing I do know is that jumping ability can be in there but not appear till the horse is taught how to jump. A breeder I used to know sold a 2yo because they did not seem to be able to jump. He could put them in the school, lie a pole on the ground across the gateway and know that the horse would not go over the pole. That horse went on to compete at the Olympics in showjumping.

I agree with train-to-jump idea. Some ponies I've had are naturally tight-kneed, back-crackers... However, we have a four year old who at first just kind of cantered over jumps, but the more she jumps the better she gets (more careful, tighter form, truer jump). It's great if they are a natural jumper but not the end of the world if they aren't.

[stoicfish]

So for the jumping part, does that mean that the little ones that do show ability will probably have it as adults?
Dressage is much more multifaceted, and I would think harder to predict with any accuracy until they are much older. A quote from Dr. Christmann
Breeding horses to win the Bundeschampionate at the age of four is different from breeding Grand Prix dressage horses. When you look at many top Grand Prix horses they are not the ones that win as three and four year olds. Five and six year old classes have more of a correlation to later competition success."

[woweezowee]

In my experience, if they are good jumpers, the won't lose the ability. I have no dressage experience, but it makes sense -- possibly horses engaging their hind end & developing their carriage with a rider on their back were not the same ones that would excel @ inspections.

[Waterwitch]

Predictive value of foal kinematics for the locomotor performance of adult horses


W. Back, H. C. Schamhardt, W. Hartman, G. Bruin and A. Barneveld

Department of General and Large Animal Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.157, 3508 TD, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Department of Veterinary Anatomy, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.157, 3508 TD, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Research Institute for Cattle, Sheep and Horse Husbandry, Lelystad, The Netherlands

Department of General and Large Animal Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.153, 3508 TD, Utrecht, The Netherlands





Abstract

The gait of 24 horses was recorded on a treadmill when they were trotting at 4 m sec−1, first when they were four months old and again when they were 26 months. The data recorded at four months were used to predict the locomotion of the adult horses, and the predictions were assessed against the data recorded at 26 months. The locomotion of the foals and the adults appeared to be closely related, when the differences in segment length and joint angles due to growth were taken into account. The duration of swing, the total range of protraction and retraction, and the maximum tarsal flexion could be used to predict adult locomotion, because they correlated very well between the foals and adults. The durations of stance and stride in the foals had to be linearly and dynamically scaled to the height at the withers to become predictive for the adult values. The duration of swing, and the total range of protraction and retraction and the maximum tarsal flexion are also indicators of the quality of gait and as a result studies of foal kinematics can be used objectively to predict the locomotor performance of adult horses.

[Waterwitch]

Can jumping capacity of adult showjumping horses be predicted on the basis of submaximal free jumps at foal age? A longitudinal study




Maarten F. Bobberta (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WXN-4D5P4NW-1&_user=2910604&_coverDate=09%2F30%2F2005&_alid=1024361048&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=7163&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=23&_acct=C000056106&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_useri#aff1), Susana Santamaríab (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WXN-4D5P4NW-1&_user=2910604&_coverDate=09%2F30%2F2005&_alid=1024361048&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=7163&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=23&_acct=C000056106&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_useri#aff2), P. René van Weerenb (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WXN-4D5P4NW-1&_user=2910604&_coverDate=09%2F30%2F2005&_alid=1024361048&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=7163&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=23&_acct=C000056106&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_useri#aff2), Wim Backb (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WXN-4D5P4NW-1&_user=2910604&_coverDate=09%2F30%2F2005&_alid=1024361048&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=7163&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=23&_acct=C000056106&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_useri#aff2) and Albert Barneveldb (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WXN-4D5P4NW-1&_user=2910604&_coverDate=09%2F30%2F2005&_alid=1024361048&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=7163&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=23&_acct=C000056106&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_useri#aff2)

aInstitute for Fundamental and Clinical Human Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, van der Boechorstraat 9, NL-1081 BT Amsterdam, The Netherlands

bDepartment of Equine Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Yalelaan 12, NL-3584 CM Utrecht, The Netherlands




Abstract

The purpose of this study was to quantify performance characteristics of good jumping horses, and to determine whether these were already detectable at foal age. Kinematic data were collected of horses performing free jumps over a 0.60 m high fence at six months of age and of these same horses jumping with a rider over a 1.15 m high fence at five years of age. At five years of age the horses were divided into three groups on the basis of a puissance competition: a group of seven best jumpers that made no errors and in the end cleared a 1.50 m high fence, a group of nine worst jumpers that were unable to clear a 1.40 m high fence, and an intermediate group of 13 horses. Longitudinal kinematic data was available for all seven best jumpers and for six of the nine worst jumpers. Average values of variables for the best jumpers were compared with those of the worst jumpers for the jumps over 1.15 m. In the group of best jumpers, the forelimbs were shorter at forelimb clearance due to increased elbow flexion, and the hind limbs were further retroflexed at hind limb clearance. The same superior technique in clearing fences with the limbs was also found in this group at six months of age. Nevertheless, for individual horses it turned out to be too far-fetched to predict adult jumping capacity on the basis of kinematic variables collected during submaximal jumps at foal age.

[ne1]

yes, there can be a degree of foretelling, that's the good news.

but in my experience it can only be done consistently and accurately by those who have spent the better part of a lifetime evaluating thousands of foals from a known population. that's the bad news.

as with riding and breeding, accurate, predictive foal evaluation is somewhat of a sense; a feeling. it is not learned only academically and from lengths and angles of a foal's structure. there are indeed some 'rules' one ought to follow, but that does not mean that 'painting by numbers' guarantees any kind of consistent success, otherwise we could all be breeding (and foal evaluating) geniuses with little effort!

[stoicfish]

yes, there can be a degree of foretelling, that's the good news.

but in my experience it can only be done consistently and accurately by those who have spent the better part of a lifetime evaluating thousands of foals from a known population. that's the bad news.

as with riding and breeding, accurate, predictive foal evaluation is somewhat of a sense; a feeling. it is not learned only academically and from lengths and angles of a foal's structure. there are indeed some 'rules' one ought to follow, but that does not mean that 'painting by numbers' guarantees any kind of consistent success, otherwise we could all be breeding (and foal evaluating) geniuses with little effort!

:yes:

[JackSprats Mom]

Waterwitch- thanks for linking those studies, I found them quite fascinating!

The duration of swing, and the total range of protraction and retraction and the maximum tarsal flexion are also indicators of the quality of gait and as a result studies of foal kinematics can be used objectively to predict the locomotor performance of adult horses.

So a good mover is a good mover at any age it seems.

[stoicfish]

Waterwitch- thanks for linking those studies, I found them quite fascinating!
So a good mover is a good mover at any age it seems.

Possibly being a skeptic but they had a positive correlation between movement at 4 months and 26 months. But does this movement correlate to any kind of talent at higher levels? Taking out the training factor of course, but do these parameters actually determine that these horses have the physical ability to do higher levels of dressage? That seems a bit far fetched to me.

The same superior technique in clearing fences with the limbs was also found in this group at six months of age. Nevertheless, for individual horses it turned out to be too far-fetched to predict adult jumping capacity on the basis of kinematic variables collected during submaximal jumps at foal age.

And I am not sure what numbers make you determine a correlation to be "far-fetched"? If they thought the physical parameters were not usefully predictive why did they use them to start with. The first line makes it sound like there is a positive correlation.

[Kyzteke]

When discussing potential, I assume you are talking about the potential to be a successful competitior? Fancy gaits, or even the ability to jump is only one part of the equation -- probably the LEAST important part.

More important are trainability, heart, soundness...just to name afew attributes. Just like people, sheer athletic ability alone does not insure success.

A good example of this is the "R"line bred dressage horses. Most of the "R" line are known to be good, all around athletes, but they are NOT known to have flashy gaits as foals. Instead, they are known to be smart, willing, and ready to try their hearts out for you...this is what tends to make them successful, NOT just an innate flashy trot.

As for these people who say, "I just knew..." well, I'm willing to bet most of those were people who had seen 100's or 1000's of foals in their lifetime. The rest were just damned lucky ;)

[stoicfish]

When discussing potential, I assume you are talking about the potential to be a successful competitior? Fancy gaits, or even the ability to jump is only one part of the equation -- probably the LEAST important part.

More important are trainability, heart, soundness...just to name afew attributes. Just like people, sheer athletic ability alone does not insure success.

A good example of this is the "R"line bred dressage horses. Most of the "R" line are known to be good, all around athletes, but they are NOT known to have flashy gaits as foals. Instead, they are known to be smart, willing, and ready to try their hearts out for you...this is what tends to make them successful, NOT just an innate flashy trot.

As for these people who say, "I just knew..." well, I'm willing to bet most of those were people who had seen 100's or 1000's of foals in their lifetime. The rest were just damned lucky ;)

Yep straight up physical ability.
There was a dressage suitability class, where a very well respected lady judged the horses as yearlings and it got me thinking.
I just wondered about jumping as well. I liked stolensilver's story. :lol: I have also heard of certain lines that were late to show their final talent. And I whole heartedly agree with the physical part being the least important- on the mid to lower levels anyways, which is where most horses will be.

I recently was on a older Fiord pony that was a point and shoot up to four feet. I believe most horses have the physical ability, it's the rest that makes the difference.
Just wondered what people's personal experiences are.

[Mozart]

Can I get back to you in about 20 years? :winkgrin: