PDA

View Full Version : Completely hypothetical pricing question



DevilsAdvocateDC
May. 12, 2009, 01:53 PM
Not my horse for sale. A horse I saw advertised that I know. Trying to figure out if my gut instinct about the price is on the money.

The stats...

Washington DC metro area, at a nice barn but by no means a BNT. As far as I can tell, is being sold by the ammy owner who is capable enough but no Meredith Michaels. Good advertising skills, put together a nice ad.

Hunter horse. OTTB, 16.1, bay with chrome, cute, 7 years old. No vices/issues. Easy horse. Uncomplicated. Good for a kid or ammy. Nice mover, could get a hack ribbon in rated company. Pins over fences as well. Shown some in the baby greens and english pleasure classes. A little rated, a little local circuit... not campaigned but got out to some shows last season. Jumping and showing 2'3-2'6 now. Looks like he would do the 3'0. Can't really assess if he could do more, current owner doesn't do more. Not aware of any patricular limitation, stride is okay. Hard to tell but scope looks fine.

What do you think? In this economy, what's the range this horse could sell for?

I happen to know how much current owner paid and what he cost coming off the track. I am just wondering how much the off-track work that's been put on him is worth.

Coppers mom
May. 12, 2009, 01:56 PM
If he's nice, his price will be the same as similar young horses, regardless of his being on the track prior to now. Just because you know what he costs doesn't mean he's not well worth whatever she's asking now.

fordtraktor
May. 12, 2009, 01:56 PM
How did he do in the shows?

It really depends on quality, which is hard to guess at without seeing the horse in question. His "track value" does not matter. At all. Now that he is out and confirmed as quiet and an amateur ride, his value will go up significantly. A lot of the low track cost comes from the uncertainty -- there is a lot of risk getting one from the track, because it could be hot or unsound or a bad jumper.

You price the horse based on what he's doing now, not whether he ever went around in circles fast.

DevilsAdvocateDC
May. 12, 2009, 01:59 PM
Oops, didn't mean to make it sound like I thought he was worth less because he's off the track. What I am trying to ask is what horses are selling for in this economy when they're not in the tip top price bracket with a professional and when they're not made for a rated division or even the adults yet. I didn't mean to imply I though he was worth less because he was an OTTB. Just trying to figure out what that amount of training is equal to in terms of price.

Coppers mom
May. 12, 2009, 02:02 PM
Without seeing the horse, it's hard to know. My mare is perfectly capable of jumping 3'6", but her price wouldn't be the same as a horse who was fancier (she's pretty average), even if neither had ever showed and everything else was equal.

Basically, I would say that if the price makes you go "Hmmm", it's a little high for you. May not be for someone else, but there's no use looking at or considering a horse who's price makes you go "Hmmm".

Janet
May. 12, 2009, 03:01 PM
Oops, didn't mean to make it sound like I thought he was worth less because he's off the track. What I am trying to ask is what horses are selling for in this economy when they're not in the tip top price bracket with a professional and when they're not made for a rated division or even the adults yet. I didn't mean to imply I though he was worth less because he was an OTTB. Just trying to figure out what that amount of training is equal to in terms of price.
It is NOT primarily the value of the training.

It is the value of the soundness, temperament, and willingness to jump being KNOWN, instead of UNKNOWN.

If you put the same amount of training into a horse that turned out to be lame or difficult, the value would be much less.

DevilsAdvocateDC
May. 12, 2009, 03:22 PM
Okay, so can someone give me some ideas of how they'd price the soundness, temperament, and willingness to jump in the horse I described? I gave you the basic description. I know theres some variance. A range is okay.

DevilsAdvocateDC
May. 12, 2009, 03:25 PM
No know soundness issues. I think the horse ribboned nicely, from what I saw. Wasn't really paying attention at the time. And was ridden in the green classes by an amatuer owner so I wouldn't assume he's not quality because he didn't win everything. For the sake of argument, let's say ribboned in 20+ classes against good company, not high ribbons all the time but some blues.

DevilsAdvocateDC
May. 12, 2009, 03:27 PM
Forget he's an OTTB if that helps you.

Pretend he's a 7 year old bay sport bred TB, 16.1, showing 2'3-2'6 under an amateur with some success, good mover, no known issues or injuries.

All I am trying to ask, and not doing it well, is what a horse like that can bring in this economy.

Not asking if he should or shouldn't be worth more off the track or who took the risk of him coming off and being a dud. Just trying to get a sense for what a horse like that is actually selling for in this market.

Mel0309
May. 12, 2009, 03:39 PM
Sounds like he would be worth about $15,000 - $25,000. If he could do the 3ft (decently) with an am. or jr. maybe $35,000. Unless you are in Ca. , NY, or other pricey area then more.

rabicon
May. 12, 2009, 03:40 PM
I'll try to answer your question.
Where I'm at the horse would go from 10-15K depending if he has enough scope to go over 3'. Hope that helps

fordtraktor
May. 12, 2009, 03:43 PM
Agree with Mel, that's a reasonable range. The real question is whether horses like that are moving -- answer there is I don't know. There is a certain amount of luck involved to sell horses in this range in this market. And it helps if the seller has good contacts.

Mel0309
May. 12, 2009, 03:53 PM
And I in turn agree with fordtraktor - seeing lots of horses like the above for sale in that range and know of one in that range. Are they selling, don't know. The one I know about hasn't and it is doing the A's in the 3ft.

Lucassb
May. 12, 2009, 04:41 PM
Forget he's an OTTB if that helps you.

Pretend he's a 7 year old bay sport bred TB, 16.1, showing 2'3-2'6 under an amateur with some success, good mover, no known issues or injuries.

All I am trying to ask, and not doing it well, is what a horse like that can bring in this economy.

Not asking if he should or shouldn't be worth more off the track or who took the risk of him coming off and being a dud. Just trying to get a sense for what a horse like that is actually selling for in this market.

The challenge is that a lot of the answer depends on how fancy this horse is, and how easily he will move up to the bigger divisions, which is impossible to tell over the internet/without pics etc.

A lot of A show buyers will be put off by the fact that he is a TB (not arguing whether that is fair or unfair, just reality) and the fact that the record is limited. However, there are plenty of sharp buyers out there who would snap up such a horse if he is really a good mover OR if he has an especially appealing/quiet temperment and can take a joke.

I live in BNT land and things are expensive here, but I know of one very nice horse that had ribbons at AA shows here and there (not shown much due to rider, not horse issues) that sounds somewhat similar to what you are describing. He is a good jumper and a good enough mover to get a piece of the hack at an A show with an ammy ride in the childrens or adult hunters, a fairly easy ride although not a total packer. He was sold to a kid who is doing the pre-childrens stuff now for $15k.

I know of another one for sale that has done some limited/light showing (again due to rider finance issues) at 3' and 3'3" with decent ribbons, quiet and straightforward to ride and a nice mover/good jumper who would suit the same type of buyer; he is priced at $25k with no takers so far.

Neither horse had any significant vet issues and both were fairly represented.

The third one that just sold locally is a 3' horse, a little older (11?) but with a longer show record, although nothing in the last year (previous owner went off to school and he sat around for a while.) He's not difficult to ride but not a beginner's horse, very nice jumper, average mover but totally predictable at shows - BTDT. Sold to a kid doing the childrens for $45K with a vetting that noted required maintenance.

suniday
May. 13, 2009, 09:42 AM
I know several people who are actively looking for what you described in the same geographical location and in the price range that rabicon and Mel stated and can't find one that is fairly marketed/represented.

shawneeAcres
May. 13, 2009, 10:47 AM
DEpending on how fancy he is I would say he would be anywhere from $5K - $15K. For comparison sake, I have a similar gelding for sale, he was never raced but is tatooed, very quiet, easy, does 2'6" courses with changes. He is a pretty dencet mover, but not the hack winner at the top shows, will probably be a great "C" show guy with possibility to do smaller "A"s in childrens/AA. Mine is not yet shown and he is priced in the $5K range. If her were a littel fancier, he'd be upwards of $10K at least. What I would do is look at similar horses that are on the market and see how they are priced.

Flash44
May. 13, 2009, 09:35 PM
I'd say $7,500-$10,000. If he had a year end award or something in a local circuit and is pretty fancy he would be $10,000. At 7 yrs old, you'd expect he would have been shown at 3' by now. Most horses only do 6 months, or one short season, at 2'6, then move up. And there are some real bargains to be found in the $10k-$20k range.