Okay, PA residents: so what's your forecast for Groundhog Day?

[Dr. Doolittle]

Not that I believe in the "prognosticative abilities" of Punxsutawney Phil, but I think ALL we horsepeople are MORE than ready for spring, and we need a little hope!!

So MY hope is that this area of PA will have overcast skies on Monday morning (so that the fat groundhog won't see his damn shadow), and also that our outdoor ring will eventually thaw out, and no longer resemble a skating rink...

[camohn]

I use the wooly catepillars (which I hardly saw a one of this year......so I guess they are not voting this year??) and the Acorn O Meter. The Acorn Meter says and early spring.....so I will be optimistic about that since we have had 13 horses in 2 tiny paddocks for 4 days now since the rest of the hilly pasture also looks like an ice rink here. Thankfully it is supposed to hit 40 and melt the ice rink this afternoon so they can get out of jail!! SInce I have so many in such a tiny area I am giving them double hay so no one has anything to do but bury their heads in hay and eat.

[Susan P]

I would really appreciate an early spring after this contantly frozen hydrant and now ice all over the ground. I would like to pass on the upcoming mud though. :rolleyes: I may just be complaining too much, I haven't fallen on the ice YET and I've had access to water from another hydrant so I guess all is well as long as the horses have food and water and I'm still able to get to the barn to do it.

But I still would like nicer weather and good footing.

[Frank B]

I use the wooly catepillars (which I hardly saw a one of this year...
They've been scarce around here, too. Also the deer. Our "doe herd" is down to two, and several hunter friends have commented on not seeing nearly as many as usual. Hope it's not CWD or Black Tongue!

[Bluey]

As open, warm, dry winter as we are having, I would guess that we will go like this into spring, with maybe a surprise storm or two, but no more.
Which would mean our drought is entrenched.
We just battled three smaller prarie fires yesterday.:(

Grandma used to say that when the East had a bad winter, we missed on winter.
She seemed to be right on that.:yes:

This notice just came thru on CWD:

The Minnesota Board of Animal Health (MBAH – www.bah.state.mn.us) says a farmed elk, a seven-year-old female, from an Olmsted County herd tested positive for Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD).

As part of mandatory surveillance program requirements, the elk’s brain stem and lymph nodes had been submitted to USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory (NVSL) in Ames, IA, after slaughter. NVSL confirmed the animal had CWD, and MBAH quarantined the herd on Jan. 23.

Minnesota implemented mandatory registration and CWD surveillance programs for farmed cervidae herds in 2003. When farmed cervidae over 16 months of age die or are slaughtered, herd owners must submit brain samples for CWD testing.

CWD is a fatal brain and nervous system disease found in cervidae in certain parts of North America. The disease is caused by an abnormally shaped protein called a prion, which can damage brain and nerve tissue.

Infected animals show progressive loss of body weight with accompanying behavioral changes. In later stages of the disease, infected animals become emaciated (thus “wasting” disease). Other signs include staggering, consuming large amounts of water, excessive urination, and drooling. There is no evidence that CWD can be transmitted to humans.
For more on CWD, visit www.bah.state.mn.us.
-- Minnesota Board of Animal Health

[rtrules]

No shortage of deer in my neck of the woods. A young buck stopped short of running into the side of my truck the other night. Scared the crap out of me. My driveway is about 1/3 mile long and I have almost hit deer about 4 times this winter just driving up and down it to take the kids to evening activities. Now, as far as the horses go today is warming up. I was able to turn the horses out but, looks like we are going to get more bad weather tomorrow evening into Tuesday. UGH!!!!!

[pintopiaffe]

Hm, I never quite get the whole Groundhog thing.

I mean, for me, 6 weeks is a short/quick end to winter. So if it goes the other way, is it shorter/quicker than 6 weeks?

I guess it's because I live too far Nawth.

The local NPR station weatherguru made a statement last week (Thursday, I think) that most of the state had seen the worst of the season now as far as snowfall and extended periods of Arctic temps. Which *I* translated to mean, it's still winter, but we're over the hump? I hope so. I've nowhere to PUT any more 'significant' snowfall.

It was supposed to be sunny and warm (30's) today. I stripped the blanket off of grungegirl at 0730 as I left for church. Only to panic (slightly) that it was 2 at the bottom of the mountain and 6 in town.... and then to reblanket when I arrived home. It's overcast and raw.

The big *worry* is a storm on Tues that may dump rain. We'll have a ton of roofs collapsing if we get too much rain too fast. They have significant snow and ice on them now, they won't hold up. :no:

Not to mention flooded ice skating rinks--I mean paddocks... :dead:

[CB/TB]

Pintopiaffe, I think it goes like this: If he sees his shadow we have 6 more weeks of winter, but if he doesn't it'll be over in a month and an half. I have my doubts he'll even be able to dig himself out of his hole, so what does that mean? Gorgeous day here , temps almost 50 and sunny. Things are melting fast, but I think it's just making room for more ( Tues and weds). But, on the up side, it's still daylight at 5pm. How bad can it get( she said!?) I think I saw one woolybear this winter and he was all black, no stripe. This too shall pass!

[JohnDeere]

Pintopiaffe, I think it goes like this: If he sees his shadow we have 6 more weeks of winter, but if he doesn't it'll be over in a month and an half.

:yes::lol::winkgrin:

Unless it changes!

[Tasker]

FWIW - our riding horses are _shedding_ !!! Like full curry comb after a few swipes shedding!

So I think that is a vote for an early spring from here in Oxford.

[Ware Whip!]

FWIW - our riding horses are _shedding_ !!! Like full curry comb after a few swipes shedding!

So I think that is a vote for an early spring from here in Oxford.

From your lips, go God's ear! I was so pleased to drive on dry roads today.

[MoonWitch]

Mine are shedding too!! I take that as a good sign. Deer, fox and other critters seem to be on the move more, so I take that that spring is coming sooner than later? Just a guess from watching the stars, lunar cycles, nature & other "witchy" ways...:eek::eek:

[2 tbs]

From your lips, go God's ear! I was so pleased to drive on dry roads today.

You and me both!!! I've been house/farm sitting for the last 2.5 weeks. Why oh why did all this have to come while the owners of the mile long driveways and acres of icy snowy land were sunning it up in FL and on crusies????:sigh:

I had to park at the bottom of hills and haul myself up to the house using fence posts. I had frozen barn water so I had to carry water back and forth to the barn from the house--where I had to walk up the massive driveway because it was too icy to drive.:( I had to keep horses in stalls for days then try to get them in fields without getting killed once the weather cleared a bit - one of them almost took me out 3 different days! Lil b@$*@&%!! He's a yearling, he can't help it, but still!!!!

I say tomorrow looks hopeful....for more winter :( Either way you look at it, the damn rodent lies! :uhoh::winkgrin::lol: Here's the deal. They pull him out of his "hole" (which is er, um, a cage!) before the sun even comes up! They have so many flood lights on the area he can't see anything-he's blinded!!!! Seriously though, it's just a thing to do for fun, get drunk before the sun rises, and freeze!:cool:

I can say we are suddenly starting to hit swing temps which are much more common in late February/March. Would you call that early spring? I guess I kinda would. It was -10* 2 weeks ago and today it was almost 50*. It will be 34* tomorrow, a low of 8* on Weds, and nearly 50* again later in the week. My old guy who lives out 24/7 is a wooley, wooley beastie but his face is starting to shed. I still expect to get more snow though - we always get a good storm or 2 headed into March and around mid March.

The actual forecast for tomorrow in Punxy is 32* and snow showers. Guess that means he shouldn't see his shadow but I'm not banking the furry lil bugger!;)

[Dr. Doolittle]

You and me both!!! I've been house/farm sitting for the last 2.5 weeks. Why oh why did all this have to come while the owners of the mile long driveways and acres of icy snowy land were sunning it up in FL and on crusies????:sigh:

I had to park at the bottom of hills and haul myself up to the house using fence posts. I had frozen barn water so I had to carry water back and forth to the barn from the house--where I had to walk up the massive driveway because it was too icy to drive.:( I had to keep horses in stalls for days then try to get them in fields without getting killed once the weather cleared a bit - one of them almost took me out 3 different days! Lil b@$*@&%!! He's a yearling, he can't help it, but still!!!!

I say tomorrow looks hopeful....for more winter :( Either way you look at it, the damn rodent lies! :uhoh::winkgrin::lol: Here's the deal. They pull him out of his "hole" (which is er, um, a cage!) before the sun even comes up! They have so many flood lights on the area he can't see anything-he's blinded!!!! Seriously though, it's just a thing to do for fun, get drunk before the sun rises, and freeze!:cool:

I can say we are suddenly starting to hit swing temps which are much more common in late February/March. Would you call that early spring? I guess I kinda would. It was -10* 2 weeks ago and today it was almost 50*. It will be 34* tomorrow, a low of 8* on Weds, and nearly 50* again later in the week. My old guy who lives out 24/7 is a wooley, wooley beastie but his face is starting to shed. I still expect to get more snow though - we always get a good storm or 2 headed into March and around mid March.

The actual forecast for tomorrow in Punxy is 32* and snow showers. Guess that means he shouldn't see his shadow but I'm not banking the furry lil bugger!;)

2 tbs, you are hilarious! :D

Good points made, and I tend to be hopeful (but not optimistic) about the timely appearance of spring...

[2 tbs]

2 tbs, you are hilarious! :D

:lol: Thanks! I'm just really exhausted and I guess a bit bitter...cold that is :winkgrin: It was nice here today and I enjoyed hanging with the ponies-took the blankie off my old guy for a while, watched them all take a group snooze in the snow, cleaned the barn in a spring cleaning mode, etc but it'll be cold again tomorrow so...

Spring will come. I know it will. It will probably just follow some more snow and cold weather ;) We've had more snow in January than I remember so that either means more than normal for the rest of the season or maybe none and spring will come early??!! Who knows. I'll just ride whatever wave comes our way - thankfully I'll be doing it from my own house! It's months like this I take back my desire to have my own farm :winkgrin:

[Chief2]

Up in these parts we have Manchester Chuck and Essex Ed. Manchester Chuck lives snug and warm in a children's library, but Essex Ed is the party animal. He gets a townwide celebration and a parade. :cool:

Anyway, because of our notorious New England weather, Essex Ed can have a sunny morning and see his shadow, while down the road, Manchester Chuck may be socked in with overcast skies and not see it. Which is still better than the previous Manchester Chuck, who spent years prognosticating on the front pages of the newspapers while his handlers hid the fact that 'she' was blind.

I always thought that seeing the shadow meant a short winter, while seeing it meant 6 more weeks. Now that I find out it's 6 of one or half a dozen of the other, might as well head over to Essex and break out the booze. The way it's going around here, we'll be buried in snow until May. :no:

[Dr. Doolittle]

:D

I can only imagine that one would have some "deep ambivalence" about farm ownership during the winter months...

And I gather that you are a "Stillers Fan"?? My hubby is a homeboy from Jeannette PA (went to Pitt), so we were biting our fingernails to the elbow during the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl...WHEW! (Wipes back of hand across brow, thanks God for BEER!)

The NFL is hard on my cardiovascular system...:p

Damn rodent better have some good news tomorrow morning--and follow through on it!!

[Bluey]

Around here, the weatherman goes to look at a prarie dog, to see which way to call it, if six weeks or a month and a half to the end of winter.:D

[gieriscm]

Sigh. He saw his shadow. Six more weeks...

[Dr. Doolittle]

Damn him! :(

(OTOH, if he hadn't seen his shadow--like he didn't last year IIRC--we would *still* be in for another month and half of this anyway...I believe all the previous posters are correct! :sigh:)

Oh, well...

[Nezzy]

i'm in NE Pa. We will have 8 more weeks of winter, b/c it does not end for us until April. And we often get snow into April. so no high hopes for me.

[copper1]

I can't figure out ol Phil up there in Punxsutawney! I am not that far from there and it was a gloomy and overcast morning and I can't see how it could have been sunny there! I think the TV lights cause the shadows! Phil and his mate live in a glass fronted den in the Punxy library and he gets carted out to Gobbler's Knob and put into a tree stump then brought out for his prediction. Naturally tons of tv stations with their lights are always there so how the heck can the little guy tell one way or the other? No matter what he sees, 6 weeks until the first day of spring and his prediction is more on how BAD those 6 weeks can be! Around here we have had snow in May so........

[llsc]

I just got back from Punxsutawney! It was an absolute blast.

We left yesterday morning, arrived in time for a few festivities, watched the Superbowl and then the movie Ground Hog Day in the local theatre. We headed up to Gobler's Nob at 5:30am, saw a great fireworks show just before daybreak and then watched Phil exclaim that there were 6 more weeks of winter. It was cloudy, so I'm not sure how he saw his shadow, but It was a really great time just the same.

[tradewind]

he has to see his shadow every year, they plaster so many tv camera lights around him, how is he not supposed to see his shadow...I do however expect to have six more weeks of winter...its only going to go to 28 tomorrow, which is substantially below normal for SEPA this time of year.

[tazz001]

North central PA...regardless of what the rodent says...at LEAST 6 more weeks of winter

[Ware Whip!]

I will take the oppertunity to say, HOW BOUT THEM STILLERS :D

That rodent makes me sad, but, they are calling for temps in the fifties this week end. Then I guess we can all gripe about mud.