What to do - really?

[jennywho]

So we all saw this coming, but I don't think any of us imagined it would be nearly as bad as it is. I'm talking about the bloodbath that's also referred to as the Keeneland November sale.

I am heartsick for all of the breeders that are taking such a horrible beating (and I know I am going to take a bashing because they should have seen it coming, shouldn't have bred crappy mares, shouldn't have paid outrageous stud fees, etc. etc.) BUT many of them have put their hearts and souls into their breeding programs and I'm sure are absolutely sick about now.

So for all of you out there that breed to race or breed to sell, what are your plans for next year?

My SO keeps telling me that you should never get out of something when things are at their worst, but is this the worst or are we going to keep spiraling down?

I am on the other side of the country and our regional breeding program has been circling the drain for awhile now.

We currently have5 broodmares and honestly I don't want to breed any of them back next year. We have already decided that we will only breed as many mares as we can afford to keep and run ourselves, which will bring us to two max. One mare will be retired as a pasture puff at the farm and the others will be re-started under saddle and hopefully rehomed as riding horses.

Still, that leaves us with two and I am having a heck of a time justifying breeding them.

Just curious what others are planning to deal with this drastic downturn.

[Blinkers On]

Wow, nicely put, Jenny! And sad at the same time!
It's a sad state of affairs. And IMO it's not just the breeding industry that is suffering. People aren't or can't buy, trainers are loosing large #'s of horses. Grooms, hotwalkers, exercise riders out of work. How many rescues are needed, how many horses are starving or in a kill pen. It's a truly sad state of affairs from top to bottom.

[SleepyFox]

Jennywho, I think you need to look at the market in which you sell and/or race and make your breeding decisions based on where you think things will be at the time you will sell or race your '10 foal crop. Remember, the TB market is cyclical just like any other market. It's going through a correction right now that most of us saw coming but it has been worsened by economic factors. Thus far, KEE Nov is about what I expected. There is definitely money there - but it's picky money. If you have the right horse, you can do well.

My advice - FWIW - is to be selective and conservative breeding next year. Breed for an outstanding physical individual above all else and breed something that you can obviously see the value in just by looking at the page.

Personally, the only significant change I've made is that I'm no longer willing to "play" with a breed to race mare - I can buy one cheaper than I can raise one so it just doesn't make sense. Other than that, I am continually seeking to lower my costs and maximize efficiency - and that will definitely remain a priority this year. A few years ago, I really looked at my costs and made some decisions about what type of mares made sense for me to breed. I came up with some fairly high standards and culled what didn't fit. So, luckily, I tightened my program's proverbial belt at a good time and thus, am in a position where I can pretty much stay the course.

I think you get a very different picture of things depending where you are. My market is strong and the racing is thriving. The big problem I have is that I can't get a horse in a race b/c everything is oversubscribed.

[Laurierace]

I freely admit to being in a mental funk at the moment but I was truly considering euthanizing all my horses today except my two year old in training. I have been doing horse rescue way too long to trust anyone to care for my horses properly and I would rather they have a humane death than risk them ending up starved to death or worse. Thank God hubby is a reasonable man and was able to talk me down off the virtual bridge.
I really don't know what to do with my broodmare though. She is open at this time and needs to go under lights soon. I don't know that I can afford to bring another horse into the world, but nothing is more expensive than an open broodmare.

[Equilibrium]

I freely admit to being in a mental funk at the moment but I was truly considering euthanizing all my horses today except my two year old in training. I have been doing horse rescue way too long to trust anyone to care for my horses properly and I would rather they have a humane death than risk them ending up starved to death or worse. Thank God hubby is a reasonable man and was able to talk me down off the virtual bridge.
I really don't know what to do with my broodmare though. She is open at this time and needs to go under lights soon. I don't know that I can afford to bring another horse into the world, but nothing is more expensive than an open broodmare.


It's nice to know, I'm not the only one then! And I am the same as you, I would rather them have a humane death at home then give them away to lord only knows where.

I will be breeding 2 mares next year and that's it. I'm not even sure about my sporthorse mare at this stage. I never try and outdo my mares with "big" stallions. Anything 10,000euros and under and it's usually more in the 5,000 euro range. And at the end of the day, I haven't lost money in staying with these stud fees. But not making much either.

I have cried so much this week it's getting silly. I have the flu, more paying clients than ever and we are still scrounging to make money. Clients have been slow to pay or they have given up leaving us stuck with the bill. I'm in the barn 14 hours a day, soaked to the bone, and the mud is ghastly already. You won't be suprised to learn this is our last year of doing what we are doing now. I have a real job in the works as does hubby. Our horses will be for pleasure and I can't wait! I really wanted to keep our own business going, but at this stage paid sick days, holidays, and a weekly check is just so darn appealing.

Terri

[Junie's Mom]

I've already made the decision not to breed next year. I am leaving two mares open, and retiring one. I have also decided not to sell my yearling until he's 2 - the market is too bad, and he's too nice of a horse to give away for peanuts. I'll just hang onto him for now...

[LaurieB]

Well I guess we're going against the consensus. Like SleepyFox, we've been very careful with mare selection and the segment of the market we're aiming for and our plans aren't really changing for 2009. Anything we breed now won't be selling until 2011; hopefully things will have turned around (or at least begun to turn around) by then. We retired a filly from the track early this year so we'll be breeding six mares next year. Four of them are already booked.

I think most breeders knew what KeeNov was going to be like, especially after going through KeeSep which is why this sale has more than 1,000 outs. It's just a huge market correction, made worse by general economic conditions. Breeders who can afford to hunker down and wait it out are doing so. One of the problems with this industry is that there are more dreamers than businessmen. The sales process was never meant to rescue breeders from their bad decisions and we're finding that out now in a big way.

[Blinkers On]

I freely admit to being in a mental funk at the moment but I was truly considering euthanizing all my horses today except my two year old in training. I have been doing horse rescue way too long to trust anyone to care for my horses properly and I would rather they have a humane death than risk them ending up starved to death or worse. Thank God hubby is a reasonable man and was able to talk me down off the virtual bridge.
I really don't know what to do with my broodmare though. She is open at this time and needs to go under lights soon. I don't know that I can afford to bring another horse into the world, but nothing is more expensive than an open broodmare.

I hear that Laurie, and I am sorry.

[Nothinsweetr]

The farm I work for has been RNAing a lot of the horses they are offering at KeenNov. I think so far we've only sold 6 out of 12 with 2 left to go through. We pulled a bunch as well. Luckily we don't HAVE to sell, so we can put reserves on them and just bring them home if they don't bring a decent price.

We didn't do too badly at KeenSept... some brought less than anticipated, but others brought more so it evened out well... (then we bought a bunch as well)

I'm just a yearling groom though so I don't know everything. :-)

[Slewdledo]

Our hayman said that the price of hay will come down dramatically with the 1st cutting which was an AMAZING relief. (I wanted to hug the old coot!) We also had a client who went delinquent in 2007 call out of the blue to make good on their outstanding bill. :eek: (Is it a full moon or something?)

Breeding to sell isn't economically feasible at all. If you can afford to treat it as a hobby, or split costs with friends (or the trainer) then breeding to race should be OK.

I have one mare, owned in partnership with my family, who's due to foal in early February. My family wants out of the mare after the foal is weaned, so I will be 'stuck' with her. I don't know if I can afford to breed her for another baby but it'll sure be expensive to keep her. It's just so tough.

There are too many mares of marginal quality being bred right now so in the long run this market correction will be good. It's just all the other factors of the warring tracks/breeders/owners associations that make it so frustrating.

No solutions here but I empathize and am in a similar boat.

[Toadie's mom]

I made the decision not to breed back this year, and solidified that for the future by selling 2 mares and retiring the 3rd.

However, having said that, I am keeping my 3yr old homebred, and one of the weanlings, who both happen to be fillies ;)

[Acertainsmile]

I have one mare that I retired 2 yrs ago who has a home for life with us (she is now 23)... I left another open (has given us 3 nice foals, first is an unraced 2 yr old who is in training), and gave another nice 7 yr old mare who had twins and aborted this year to a good friend of mine to hopefully be her new Event horse...

I'm not sure if I will breed the one mare this year, I still have a few months to decide, and it depends on how her 2 yr old does, if he makes it to the races in time...

We took our two yearling fillies to the sale and brought them both home...we really like them and were not prepared to "give" them away... sooo, now I have some big decisions to make if I cant sell them privatley.

It was never really my intention to breed in the first place, but we raced these mares, and they have pretty good pedigrees, race records...I truly hope things get better in the near future!

[AdAblurr02]

Our hayman said that the price of hay will come down dramatically with the 1st cutting which was an AMAZING relief. (I wanted to hug the old coot!) <SNIP>

Wow, do we have the same old coot - er, I mean, Hay Guy? We just paid through the nose to get a double semi of GOOD alfalfa while the money is in the account - if we wait, we would end up with crap dirty Ellensberg leftover stuff again....

and the hauler said he was expecting price to come down next year, as the Japanese are cutting WAY back on their imports of hay - something to do with their horse market falling out of the sky, too.

While we are no longer breeding TBs, we still follow the industry closely - and both of our remaining broodmares are TB.

Just got the catalog for the WTBA Winter Mixed sale yesterday, it's online too
http://www.washingtonthoroughbred.com/Sales/Mixed%20Sale_web/Washington_Mixed.pdf

only 94 head consigned. That's about a third of historical numbers for this particular sale. A lot of older mares consigned, two weanling colts, one filly of racing age, four stallion seasons (all for the same horse, must be a dissolution of some sort) and a bunch of yearlings. Most of the mares are "believed to be in foal", surprisingly. I was expecting the bulk of them to be open mares - the kind you KNOW will go the wrong way.

The shocker was that a friend, who is a second generation breeder from a solid horseman family, is not listed - not as a seller, not as an agent, and he ALWAYS had a few horses to sell for people. People seem to be getting out of the TB business in the PNW.

[jennywho]

Thanks everyone for your replies.

After reading the last WTBA breeders meeting minutes I'm pretty sure I'll only be breeding the one mare back as she would be marketable anywhere. I am highly considering foaling both mares that are in foal out in BC as well, their future is much brighter than ours. I'm just glad I had a bit of a premonition last year and left the other three open.

The hardest part is saying this was a dream as well as a business venture and I'm throwing in the towel. BUT there are always mares to be had and if things get better maybe we'll try again.

As for the WTBA winter sale, I wish I had boycotted it as well. Absolutely rediculous to try to prep and sell yearlings in the middle of winter. I will follow everyones lead and will not be back for it next year.

[Blinkers On]

Yep, slots in BC won't hurt. If you need a place to foal Canmore is fabulous
link
http://www.canmorfarms.ca/
Wouldn't trust anyone else!

[jennywho]

I have heard nothing but good things about Canmor. Just clicked on their website to refresh my memory as to what stallions they had only to find they lost Mazel Trick and Regal Intention recently, how tragic for all of BC.

[spanishwells]

Jenny and other breeders. I have been to the sales and it is bad. One thing to know is that the horse industry historically trails the economy by 18 months. Long story short is that the economy is 4 to 6 quarters from coming out of any kind of a retreat so do the math (MBA in Finance). We could be in for a 3 yr lag. The bright side is that there are some GREAT opportunities now in the state bred programs and if you RNA your mare in foal this is the time to send her to Pennsylvania (#1), Indiana, (#2) or Louisiana (distant 3rd).

Money will really be flowing for the PA breds and many of the Kentucky trainers and actively looking for them. The breeder awards are great and these dollars could really mean the difference in a tough economy. Just my thoughts as a breeder/owner. Register for the state bred programs while they are still light and the money is unreal.

[Blinkers On]

Yep, fortunately some good fortune has fallen on certain individuals. They can and will replace and replace well. Every time one of the Canmorons bends over gold falls out. Seriously, Olie and Tracy have a great eye for horses. They will be missed but I know they will fill in the empty spaces very well! They always do! And they run a top notch operation! I have nothing but the utmost respect for Tracy et al!

Spanish, there are more than 3 places with slots and or purses worth running for. Poor economic times seem to encourage people to gamble. Always looking to make a quick buck.

[jennywho]

Yikes, just found out Herbie passed away too, my condolences to the Loseth's and all who knew and loved Herb, they have always come across to me as classy people. Tracy, from what little I've been around her, is an excellent horsewoman.

[LaurieB]

I have been to the sales and it is bad. One thing to know is that the horse industry historically trails the economy by 18 months. Long story short is that the economy is 4 to 6 quarters from coming out of any kind of a retreat so do the math (MBA in Finance). We could be in for a 3 yr lag.


OK, I'm doing the math. If "the horse industry historically trails the ecomony by 18 months" how does that explain why are we in a funk--along with the rest of the economy--now?

[Blinkers On]

Ya Jenny, I had heard about Herbie, but till yesterday the last I heard was he was on life support. Waiting for relatives. But a friend informed me he was gone just yesterday. Didn't ask when. He was too darn young. Guess we had better live life to it's fullest while we're here