L'Arc de Triomphe - any picks?

[War Admiral]

A friend of mine is fortunate enough to be able to attend L'Arc this year... Got any picks for him? :) He's liking Zarkava at the moment I believe.

[Linny]

Do we have a mutual friend? One of my pals is going to the Arc and he LOVES Zarkava. I like Soldier of Fortune a bit as well and though he rarely wins, Youmzain always give a good account of himself.

[vineyridge]

How did Vision d'Etat do in the Niel? He looked awfully good (undefeated) up to then. Like his pedigree, but he is only three and if he couldn't take the Niel, he probably can't do the Arc.

Still worth a flyer, I would think.

[War Admiral]

Linny... Not unless your friend is from Shropshire...

I like Youmzain myself. WHAT a pedigree!! :eek: :yes: My kind of horse to a T. It'll be interesting to see what happens w/ the change of jock.

[vineyridge]

Habitat with Mill Reef is a nick, no matter where it appears in a pedigree, but it's better with Habitat on top of Mill Reef. :D This comes from the GI Goldmine pedigree software package.

[Drvmb1ggl3]

Vision d'Etat won the Prix Neil in less than spectacular fashion, which I believe will set him up perfectly for the Arc. Being a 3yo is hardly a handicap, in fact the opposite. 3yo colts have a lopsided record in the Arc, 11 of the last 14 winners, prompting many people to believe they get too much of a weight concession from older horses, a whopping 8lbs. 3yo fillies get another 3lbs on top of that, so Zarkava will only be toting 120lbs, getting 11lbs from the likes of Duke of M, Soldier of F, Youzmain etc. The big question mark over Zarkava is how she performs in open company, the Arc will be her first race against boys and older horses. The one form line we have is that she handily disposed of Goldikova in both the French Guineas and Oaks, and that filly has gone on to beat of some top class horses like Darjina, Henrythenavigator, albeit as a specialist Miler.

If the Japanese horse, Meisho Samson, runs to his best form, he will be in the mix at the end. I doubt he will though, coming off a 3 month lay-off and no European prep. On top of that you'd likely not get true odds on him on the PMU on the day if there's the expected Japanese plunge. May be worth an E/W bet with the English bookies though.
Other horses worth an E/W bet are the two German breds, Getaway and Schiaparelli. Monsuns love late season heavy ground, so wouldn't surprise me to see either get there head up for a show or place.

If the ground comes up right, and he runs, then the Duke of Marmalade is the best hope of beating Zarkava. He won't run though unless he gets good ground and the odds on that at Longchamp are not good.
That leaves Youzmain and Soldier of F leading the older horse brigade, and there isn't much between these two, though neither is exactly in the Duke of M class.

[Linny]

Linny... Not unless your friend is from Shropshire...

I like Youmzain myself. WHAT a pedigree!! :eek: :yes: My kind of horse to a T. It'll be interesting to see what happens w/ the change of jock.

Nope, he's from Saratoga. He's going to the ZArc and the Melbourne Cup this year but I couldn't get him to drive 3 hours with me to see the d@mn Jockey Club Gold Cup today. Sheesh...

[Drvmb1ggl3]

Bump.

Let's hear it folks, just two days to the best race of the year so far.
Who do ya like?

[JER]

Zarkava.

[Glimmerglass]

Sunday October 5 2008- @ Longchamp: Qatar Prix De L'arc De Triomphe (group 1) (http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,282699,00.html) Post Position and past performances.

Approx. post time, Sunday 10:40am USA ET
Distance on turf: ~ 12 furlongs
Purse: 4M Euro

[Galileo1998]

I'm going to go with Soldier of Fortune.

[kcmel]

I like Schiaparelli and Youzmain, were I a betting woman ;). Sentimentally, I will be backing Zarkava.

[JER]

The results are in and the replay is up.

2008 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jO2wdbJsxK8)

And here's the French version (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys5Al_-A3iQ), for those of you who don't speak Japanese.

[kcmel]

Wow:eek::eek:.

[K~2]

Does anyone know what's next for this filly? Watched the race this morning and thought she was pretty special.

[Drvmb1ggl3]

Replay in English (http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=TORC0h3m4LE&feature=related), though that performance is scintillating in any language. Under a hand ride.
Amazing filly, with a tail female line that is NINE generations of Aga Khan breeding, which is in itself an amazing achievement.
Zarkava -> Zarkasha -> Zarkana -> Zarna -> Zahra -> Petite Etoile -> Star of Iran -> Mah Iran -> Mah Mamal -> Mumtaz Mamal

[Drvmb1ggl3]

Does anyone know what's next for this filly? Watched the race this morning and thought she was pretty special.

That was in all likelihood the last time we'll see her on a racecourse.

[Calico]

If you have seen her prior races, with bad starts and all, this performance would not seem as surprising. She is indeed very special, and dare I say it on this forum (eek), she has defeated classier horses on the turf than Curlin has on the dirt. :)

[War Admiral]

That was in all likelihood the last time we'll see her on a racecourse.

From what my friend is hearing that's still pretty much up in the air... Great race, and my boy was 2nd! :)