I1 Championships Qualifying Excitement this weekend

[dressage_fan]

This is the last weekend to qualify for the USEF I1 Championships in late June. Two shows are going on this weekend - the CDI in Raleigh and Lamplight. 12 of the 19 at these two shows are declared for the championships. They are all outside the top 12 (after their drop show) and fighting to for the top 12 and the Championship invitation that comes with it. This is going to be an incredibly exciting weekend!

First note - Kai Handt, currently in 12th position, doesn't appear to be competing and only has one of the two required qualifying shows. So, she should drop out of the rankings and everybody else will move up one spot. 11th place is currently at 66.875% (Jennifer Hoffman).

Lauren Sprieser has an enormous opportunity at Raleigh. A good score will allow her to drop a 63.917% and keep a 69.484%. A superlative show will move her way up in the rankings. She has a great chance to move into the top 12.

Melissa Taylor is dropping a 65.834% and keeping a 67.667%. She also has potential big movement in the rankings, but less so than Lauren because her relative "kept" score is not as high. Therefore, even though she is currently ranked ahead of Lauren, Lauren has the mathematical edge if they both score well. They both compete head-to-head at Raleigh this weekend which should be really exciting considering their position at 13th and 14th in the rankings after drop show (actually 12th and 13th considering Kai Handt will drop off the rankings).

Lisa Froehlig, Judy Kelly and Amy Stuhr have the potential to keep one score in the mid to low 65% range (and drop one lower than that). A really big show - and one that is significantly better than Lauren and Melissa - may move them into the top 12. They are are all competing at Lamplight, so they may have a scoring edge because they are competing at a non-CDI (possibly easier to get scores?).

Yvonne Barteau or Susan Dutta (Currency DC) with an enormous show each have an outside chance to sneak into the top 12. A good show will allow them to keep a score in the low-mid 64% range. Yvonne is at Lamplight and Susan is at Raleigh.

Amanda Johnson carries at best two scores averaging 66.180%, but math is working against her. It will be more difficult for her than the other riders mentioned above to move her average because her one score this weekend has to bring up the average of 2 remaining "kept" scores. She will need a really good show this weekend at Lamplight.

The other 4 riders who are declared and competing this weekend - Susan Dutta (Manette DC), Endel Ots, Sarah Hippenstiel and Todd Bryan - need something really great to have a chance at the top 12.

This weekend is setup to be very exciting with respect to the I1 Rankings. The show websites are www.cdi-raleigh.com and www.dressageshowinfo.com. Hopefully they post scores each night so we can track how everybody is doing.

[Denali]

First note - Kai Handt, currently in 12th position, doesn't appear to be competing and only has one of the two required qualifying shows. So, she should drop out of the rankings and everybody else will move up one spot.


He, not she. Just thought I would add that.


Thanks for this thread! :) Good to have it all summed up like this for those of us following this!!

[snaffle635]

So glad you posted this! I'm going to Lamplight tomorrow to watch. As a confirmed hunter princess and dressage idiot, I'm really hoping to learn a lot. Now I have a good idea of whom to watch.

I'm so excited that Yvonne Barteau is riding. I have her book on horse personalities and just love it!

[dressage_fan]

Rumor is that Lauren Sprieser scored in the 62%'s in the PSG and that the class was won with something in the 65% range. Not knowing the detail yet (why won't they post the scores in a timely manner!!??), it's hard to speculate the exact implications of this except to say that Lauren will need something really special in tomorrow's I1. It also means that Melissa didn't score high enough to "put it away". These two could have made it a two-horse race for the 12th qualifying spot with good scores today. Now Lamplight will be that much more interesting.

Anybody with complete, accurate scores from Lamplight and Raleigh, please post them!

Oops about the gender-mistake with Kai. Hope that didn't offend anybody...it was not meant that way.

[dutchfan]

With the drop score calculated in - Lauren needs at 67.5 or better tomorrow to hold on and be in the top 12. Melissa needs at 65.5 or better to stay in the top 12. Roughly- depending on what happens in Lamplight and at in NJ with Chris Hickey

[dressage_fan]

With the drop score calculated in - Lauren needs at 67.5 or better tomorrow to hold on and be in the top 12. Melissa needs at 65.5 or better to stay in the top 12. Roughly- depending on what happens in Lamplight and at in NJ with Chris Hickey

If you know exactly what they scored today, I can plug it into my model (which is 100% accurate and verified against USEF, USDF, etc.) and say very precisely what each of them needs to retain the 12th spot. As you astutely mentioned, this excludes Lamplight which is now a really big factor in the chase for #12.

[dressage_fan]

depending on what happens in Lamplight and at in NJ with Chris Hickey

Forgot to mention that Chris scored 65.167% and 64.833% (PSG, I1) at ESCDTA last weekend in NJ and by my calculations is now in 21st place after the drop show rules are applied.

[dressagediosa]

We're all having a rough go at Raleigh. I don't have the exact numbers for the entire class, but Dacardo is not playing fair for Melissa, and I followed up on yesterday's abysmal 62.0something% with a much better, but not good enough, 64% even in today's I1. Both of us wil use this show as our drop.

Tim Dutta told me that while Suzie had declared, she would not be making the Cali trip.

And my scout at Lamplight reported that Mandy had a 66 yesterday. I'll try and get my math up tonight.

For what it's worth, I'm very at peace with either going OR not going. My mare has never felt fitter or keener - she's so on fire this weekend I'm still learning how to ride it! If we go, great. If we don't, I don't have to take out a loan, and I get to redirect our efforts into the push for the I2. I haven't pushed it, but Cleo's offered me the BEST piaffe and passage I've ever gotten this weekend. It's all about the big picture! :)

[dressage_fan]

We're all having a rough go at Raleigh. I don't have the exact numbers for the entire class, but Dacardo is not playing fair for Melissa, and I followed up on yesterday's abysmal 62.0something% with a much better, but not good enough, 64% even in today's I1. Both of us wil use this show as our drop.

Tim Dutta told me that while Suzie had declared, she would not be making the Cali trip.

And my scout at Lamplight reported that Mandy had a 66 yesterday. I'll try and get my math up tonight.

For what it's worth, I'm very at peace with either going OR not going. My mare has never felt fitter or keener - she's so on fire this weekend I'm still learning how to ride it! If we go, great. If we don't, I don't have to take out a loan, and I get to redirect our efforts into the push for the I2. I haven't pushed it, but Cleo's offered me the BEST piaffe and passage I've ever gotten this weekend. It's all about the big picture! :)

Thanks for the update and good luck to you!

If Susan isn't taking Golden Choice, then that opens up another spot in the top 12 (Kai Handt/Ntec Dacorino won't have the required 2 shows). The only east coast rider that I haven't heard if she is going is Susan Jaccoma. I've heard - sometimes third, fourth person... - that all the others are going or trying to go. So, there are two spots open depending on this weekend's results.

Not knowing everybody's exact scores out at Lamplight makes re-calculating the rankings difficult. But, I can say what Amanda Johnson's average score needs to be to overtake Lauren. She needs a competition average there of 67.743% to raise her overall average to 66.7007% (versus Lauren's overall average of 66.7005%...possible rounding issues everywhere!). Amanda's other two shows would be 67.109% (Lamplight CDI) and 65.250% (Silverwood). If she scored 66% yesterday, she needs something pretty good today to raise her competition average that far.

Wish someone would post exact numbers from Lamplight!!

[FEI_JR2004]

A friend showing at lamplight gave me the top 5 from the PSG and I1.

PSG:
1. Endel Ots 66.917
2. Judy Kelly 66.333
3. Amanda Johnson 66.167
4. Sarah Hippenstiel 65.083
5. Lisa Froehling 64.750

I1
1. Amanda Johnson 67.583
2. Judy Kelly 66.917
3. Sarah Hippenstiel 64.500
4. Endel Ots 62.667
5. Lisa Froehling 60.833

[dutchfan]

We're all having a rough go at Raleigh. . Both of us wil use this show as our drop.

:)

The hard part is only the PSG gets dropped. The inter1 counts. Unless you declared 48 hours before the show not to count it at all.

[retrofit]

Dressage_Fan - thanks for the great recap!

[dressage_fan]

The hard part is only the PSG gets dropped. The inter1 counts. Unless you declared 48 hours before the show not to count it at all.

I confirmed the drop methodology with USEF. It's the show with the low competition average (PSG + I1 / 2). The exception is that you cannot drop a show that has only a PSG score and no I1. IMHO, the drop score paragraphs weren't written as well as possible. I misinterpreted them for about 2 months before finally getting clarification from USEF. Building these rules into the model was a chore!

I give USEF all the credit in the world...they're putting together reams of documentation on the qualifying processes and trying to cover every possible scenario with a relatively small staff. It's a hard job that is really under the microscope and they're doing it admirably well!

You're correct that a show can be declared to not count if they submit a request in writing >48 hours prior to the show (vet inspection for CDI's).

[dressage_fan]

Based on these scores and the reportedly low scores in the Raleigh I1, it looks like these three will move into the "likely to go" top 12: Lauren Sprieser, Elizabeth Ball (De La Frontera) and Jan Ebeling (Sandrina). I don't think Melissa Taylor or Susan Dutta are going. Once final Raleigh I1 scores are posted, I'll update my model and post who I'm coming up with for the top 18 or so.

A friend showing at lamplight gave me the top 5 from the PSG and I1.

PSG:
1. Endel Ots 66.917
2. Judy Kelly 66.333
3. Amanda Johnson 66.167
4. Sarah Hippenstiel 65.083
5. Lisa Froehling 64.750

I1
1. Amanda Johnson 67.583
2. Judy Kelly 66.917
3. Sarah Hippenstiel 64.500
4. Endel Ots 62.667
5. Lisa Froehling 60.833

[dutchfan]

I confirmed the drop methodology with USEF. It's the show with the low competition average (PSG + I1 / 2).

Really? This is very confusing to me because the rules onlines refer to the DROP SCORE (not drop show) and state "if a rider has completed more than 2 of the required Prix St Georges tests as described above, their lowest SCORE (singular tense and does not say SHOW) will automatically be dropped (provided it was not earned at the required CDI) and will not be used when determining a horse/rider combination's final average from the qualifiing competitions".

PS - USEF will have their final list up on Tuesday - so in essence their calculation is the only one that really matters.

[dressage_fan]

Really? This is very confusing to me because the rules onlines refer to the DROP SCORE (not drop show) and state "if a rider has completed more than 2 of the required Prix St Georges tests as described above, their lowest SCORE (singular tense and does not say SHOW) will automatically be dropped (provided it was not earned at the required CDI) and will not be used when determining a horse/rider combination's final average from the qualifiing competitions".

PS - USEF will have their final list up on Tuesday - so in essence their calculation is the only one that really matters.

I completely agree with you and that was why I had to confim with USEF. They confirmed it was the show with the lowest competition average that would be dropped. I had been interpreting the rule very similarly to how you stated it. The only difference in my original interpretation is that when a PSG score was dropped, I thought it would leave a solo-I1 show which would not be counted. I may have out-thought myself on that one :).

It's comforting to hear that the language sounded inconsistent to someone other than me...thought I was going nuts for a couple weeks. Personally, I think drop show makes more sense and is easier to understand. It's just the wording that perhaps should be re-worked and clarified for next year.

[FEI_JR2004]

I could be off, but if my calculations are correct, these are the final rankings, including drop scores:

1. Steffen Peters - Montango - 69.681
2. Michelle Gibson - Don Angelo - 69.279
3. Shawna Harding - Come on III - 68.675
4. Sue Jaccoma - Wadamur - 68.605
5. Liz Hendrix - Donna Novella - 67.734
6. Nick Wagman - Uforia - 67.667
7. Shelly Francis - Wig Wam - 67.563
8. Shelly Francis - Dominion - 67.000
9. Beth Ball - Orion - 66.971
10. Jennifer Hoffmann - Farinelli - 66.875
11. Melissa Taylor - Dacardo - 66.75
12. Lauren Sprieser - Clairvoya - 66.700
13. Beth Ball - De La Frontera - 66.570
14. Jan Ebeling - Sandrina - 66.475
15. Amanda Johnson - Pip - 66.408
16. Kassandra Barteau - Gabriella - 66.163

[dressagediosa]

Woops, totally bad math. Sorry for confusion. :)

[dressage_fan]

I'm getting essentially the same rankings with very slight differences for three riders. I've got Amanda Johnson at 66.411%. Steffen Peters and Susan Jaccoma are .001% different in my model because of a difference in rounding. For example, Steffen's pure competition average at Del Mar is 69.4165% but is displayed as the rounded 69.417%. When averaging averages like that, it can get messy. Both ways have their pros and cons. It will be interesting to see how USEF does it.

What an exciting weekend!

I could be off, but if my calculations are correct, these are the final rankings, including drop scores:

1. Steffen Peters - Montango - 69.681
2. Michelle Gibson - Don Angelo - 69.279
3. Shawna Harding - Come on III - 68.675
4. Sue Jaccoma - Wadamur - 68.605
5. Liz Hendrix - Donna Novella - 67.734
6. Nick Wagman - Uforia - 67.667
7. Shelly Francis - Wig Wam - 67.563
8. Shelly Francis - Dominion - 67.000
9. Beth Ball - Orion - 66.971
10. Jennifer Hoffmann - Farinelli - 66.875
11. Melissa Taylor - Dacardo - 66.75
12. Lauren Sprieser - Clairvoya - 66.700
13. Beth Ball - De La Frontera - 66.570
14. Jan Ebeling - Sandrina - 66.475
15. Amanda Johnson - Pip - 66.408
16. Kassandra Barteau - Gabriella - 66.163

[dressage_fan]

I'm getting these scores for Johnson/Pip (Lamplight is based FEI_JR2004's post above)


Show PSG I1 AVERAGE
------------- ------- ------- --------
Lamplight CDI 65.917% 68.300% 67.1085%
Silverwood 65.000% 65.500% 65.2500%
Lamplight 66.167% 67.583% 66.8750%

Overall Average: 66.411%

Drop Show:
Devon 65.167% 64.167% 64.6670%

[honeylips]

Interesting thread. I was calculating also and appreciate the additional info about drop show vs drop score.
My calcs match FEIJRs.

Either way we slice it - my mare - Donna Novella -is cleanly in 5th place - and we will be going! Woo HOO!!!!

If Darcardo also isn't going then that will boost Beth Ball up with her 2nd horse into the top 12.

It will be fun and looking forward to being there!
I have "heard" that Susan Jaccoma is coming FWIW.