View Full Version : Bitch about feed inflation
vineyridge
Feb. 27, 2008, 03:04 PM
I bought feed three weeks ago. Senior was $12.75 and the cheap stuff was 6.50 (Alfa Oats). Called today to compare prices at two different suppliers. One was 14.50 on the Senior and the other was $13.25. Safe Choice has gone up from 10.30 to $13.40.
All this in three weeks, and if I don't buy today or tomorrow, the price is going up AGAIN!
BeastieSlave
Feb. 27, 2008, 03:19 PM
I feel your pain :sigh:
My feed prices have been going up $.25/bag every other week for the last month or so.
Ja Da Dee
Feb. 27, 2008, 03:29 PM
It stands to reason that with diesel and gas prices going up, the cost of just about everything that comes in by truck will increase.
J Swan
Feb. 27, 2008, 03:49 PM
If you think feed prices are bad - you may not want to look at prices for seed, lime or fertilizer.
It's not just the price of fuel driving things up.
ThisTooShallPass
Feb. 27, 2008, 04:10 PM
Phosphorus is becoming hideously expensive.
stabledesigner
Feb. 27, 2008, 04:42 PM
I recently asked my feed company why feed prices have gone up so much lately. You might be surprised at the asnwer. It is fuel but not in the way you think of it. Fuel demand does drive prices up a little but the largest price increase has to do with our Government REQUIRING farms to produce crops for ethenol production. Some of the grain states are being required to shift grain production from feed to ethenol and not allowing for the added stress this puts feed manufacturers under. The laws of supply and demand will show if you shift grains from feed production to fuel production and not increase the production of said grains by the same amount, prices will go up... way up. And they did. If there are not big changes in our regulations and crop production, we are likely to see our feed bills continue to go up.
This is not an anti-government post, just a reality check about how trying to solve one problem (fuel polution) can cause other problems (increased feed costs). And it isn't just our feed that has gone up, all feeds and grains have gone up. Watch the price of meats, chicken, bread and other products that also require grains go up.
Stock tip: if you follow grain futures, now is the time to buy because they are only going up from here.
CoolMeadows
Feb. 27, 2008, 04:50 PM
Didn't wheat have a record breaking jump yesterday too? Prices are only going to continue to increase. My feed was $15/bag when I bought it last week, but that's been it's introductory price so I imagine it's going to be more when I get some next. The hay guy that was shipping in Canadian hay for $7.50/bale started getting some pretty low quality Pennsylvania hay for the same price so now I'm paying $10/bale for nice North Dakota hay. It's ridiculous. No way am I going to have any resale projects for a long time. The prospect market is so poor and it costs so much to feed a growing young horse right now that it's a loser no matter which way you look at it. This time last year I was paying $4.00/bale for gorgeous orchard/alfalfa/clover hay and $10/bag for feed and I was spending about the same amount per month to feed 10 as I am now feeding 3 or 4.
clanter
Feb. 27, 2008, 04:52 PM
the largest price increase has to do with our Government REQUIRING farms to produce crops for ethenol production. .
oh I was wondering what all those troops were doing
Montanas_Girl
Feb. 27, 2008, 04:59 PM
My "grain" (Triple Crown Low Starch) has been $13.50/50 lbs since August. Of course, the only ingredients that remotely resemble grain in this feed are wheat middlings and DDGS. I'm not sure why my costs haven't gone up, but I'm sure not complaining!
CoolMeadows
Feb. 27, 2008, 05:02 PM
I have one on that and it's just under $15 here.
My "grain" (Triple Crown Low Starch) has been $13.50/50 lbs since August. Of course, the only ingredients that remotely resemble grain in this feed are wheat middlings and DDGS. I'm not sure why my costs haven't gone up, but I'm sure not complaining!
eqsiu
Feb. 27, 2008, 05:09 PM
This is not an anti-government post, just a reality check about how trying to solve one problem (fuel polution) can cause other problems (increased feed costs). And it isn't just our feed that has gone up, all feeds and grains have gone up. Watch the price of meats, chicken, bread and other products that also require grains go up.
Funny, perhaps they should just limit CRP and WRP land. I know many people who have put their former farm land into conservation programs because they make more money working off the farm+conservation than they can farming.
Peace of Cake
Feb. 27, 2008, 05:15 PM
Strategy was 12.75, and nutrena safe choice was 11.49. I needed a pallet and the feed store wouldn't go down on the strategy. I paid 10.99/bag for a pallet of the nutrena at another feed store. I like strategy, but when you feed 20+ horses you have to find ways to save.
Cherry
Feb. 27, 2008, 05:48 PM
This is not an anti-government post
Why would you say this? Are you afraid to "appear" to be anti-American??? What is so anti-American about speaking out about a perceived injustice--our country was built on that! :yes: ;)
Honestly, it is about the governing abilities of the powers that be. There seems to be no sense of cause and effect on the part of any of the people in charge of this great land.... "And so it goes....".
Simkie
Feb. 27, 2008, 05:58 PM
TC Senior is $16.75 for me now. It floors me that some people are still paying less than $15 for a bag of grain.
Mali
Feb. 27, 2008, 06:41 PM
It's not just horse feed. By the end of this year, you probably won't even be able to buy a box of cereal for less than $5. Then you'll cringe when you purchase the milk to pour over it. Heaven forbid you want a few slices of toast to go with your cereal! Just look at all of the different foods in your kitchen panty that contain any type of grain...I'm sure their prices will be increasing steadily in the coming months as well. If only the farmers growing the crops were actually making a profit! Unfortunately, as in everything else, it's the middle man making all of the money. I keep reminding myself though, my horse IS a luxury item. I guess I'll just have to continue cutting back on the things I want, so that I can still afford to give my horse the life he's accustomed to having.
goodmorning
Feb. 27, 2008, 06:46 PM
I will add to this bitch because I just found out my board was going up, again :eek: She tried to keep it down until after winter, so May 1st it will be more expensive. Yayyy :(
eqsiu
Feb. 27, 2008, 06:52 PM
TC Senior is $16.75 for me now. It floors me that some people are still paying less than $15 for a bag of grain.
Holy shit I pay ~$7 a bag for sweet feed from the local feed mill. Of course, they mix their own with local grain, so low overhead, but damn.
JoZ
Feb. 27, 2008, 06:57 PM
The supplement I use, Millenium Gold, has gone from $32.99 for 20 lbs. to $46.99 since the fall! That is a (wait while I grab calculator) 42%+ increase.
I've priced other things but they are just as high or higher.
11 horses at 2 oz/day
1 weaner at 1 oz/day
3 broodies at 3 oz/day
------
32 oz/day or a new bucket every 10 days! OUCH!
I knew Biodiesel/ethanol production and the governmental edict that is driving it were affecting hay prices -- didn't put 2 and 2 together on the grain prices. Somehow I have glossed over the creeping price of oats, barley, pellets, etc. -- going from $9.99 to $10.99 to $11.99 and so on is a bit more covert than the leaps that the Millenium Gold has taken!
RoseBud143
Feb. 27, 2008, 07:11 PM
HAHAHAHAHAH i work at a feed store so I see the changes, and when ever we get a new shipment in they Go UP! its bad and costumers bitch at us, like its our fault, heck im buying feed to and I dont like it much either! and our prices here in the south can top almost anyone of the the ones posted!
strategy13.30
Eq senior 16.70
ultium 20.00
Omolene 100 14.00
omo 200 14.60
Omo 300 15.00
horsemans Edge 11.90 and 12.10
the cheap stuff is at 8.50
just oats range from 12.70- 14.00
and all we hear from purnia is its only going up!
oh and our hay here.. 18 a bale for alfalfa!!! (t&A is 11.50 costal 7.80)
I'm EBO
Feb. 27, 2008, 07:32 PM
This is an anti-government post. What the hell are they thinking? Oh, I forgot: they don't think.
I hadn't heard that they were requiring farmers to grow corn for ethanol, but they are subsidizing corn like mad. Never mind that it takes more fossil fuel (and water) to produce ethanol from corn than the corn itself can provide. Never mind that you can make ethanol out of wood chips and potato peelings among other waste products. Never mind that using ethanol reduces fuel efficiency in combustion engines, and thus creates more pollution.
The effed-up-ed-ness of the USDA, along with the rest of the current national administration, boggles the mind. What are those people smoking? Drinking? Shooting up?
PS--Bread is over $4 a loaf here--and that's not designer bread, either, it's nasty old white bread "with" whole grains.
stabledesigner
Feb. 27, 2008, 07:52 PM
[QUOTE=Cherry;3039293]Why would you say this? Are you afraid to "appear" to be anti-American??? What is so anti-American about speaking out about a perceived injustice--our country was built on that! QUOTE]
I just wanted to make it clear that I am all American and support the democratic system. I don't always agree with some of the regulations that are created, but none the less. I have been reading a lot of posts for a long while before deciding to post myself and it is so easy for others on this and other forums to make judgement of you. I always try to state facts or at least facts as I understand them. Otherwise I classify what I say as opinion. This is, by the way, a CYA post. ;)
Overall, feed prices suck just like the rest have said.
BeastieSlave
Feb. 27, 2008, 07:59 PM
Just to make some of you feel better, I'm now paying $16.99 per bag of TC Complete and $12.75 per bag of whole oats :eek:
DMK
Feb. 27, 2008, 08:11 PM
My feed (whatever Spillers Meadow Herb Sr is going by these days) is up to $18/bag, I think. I try not to look, just write the check.
I think it's not any one factor, but a cumulation of many factors. So far I have heard that it's fuel delivery costs, it's the cost to run the equipment to harvest the crop, it's the cost to process the grain, it's the cost of fertilizer (all these are linked to fuel prices), it's the land switch to produce corn, it's that demand for US grain is at an all time high since we imported a large chunk of said grain from ... China ... only now many food manufacturers would prefer their grain NOT be from China, it's difficult growing conditions in large parts of the country. I'm sure it is some of all the above and no one item dominates, except that I think fuel is disproportionately represented in many aspects of food production and might have a bit more of an effect. But that's just me guesstimating.
In short, it's a perfect storm, and it's pretty clearly affecting food for people as well as horses.
DLee
Feb. 27, 2008, 08:13 PM
I switched from Strategy to MacCauley Bros Finisher about a month ago, love it. I swear I could pour milk on it and eat it for breakfast. :yes: They are doing well and it's $11/something a bag, so yay!
subk
Feb. 27, 2008, 08:29 PM
Fuel demand does drive prices up a little but the largest price increase has to do with our Government REQUIRING farms to produce crops for ethenol production. Some of the grain states are being required to shift grain production from feed to ethenol and not allowing for the added stress this puts feed manufacturers under.
All right this is a little over the top. I do follow legislation, although not so much in the agriculture arena. Without some more info I really have to believe that it is the incentives (like subsidies) to produce corn for ethanol that might make some farmers feel they don't have much choice and still make economic sense of their crops yields. That's a lot different from "REQUIRING." (That's what the Communists/Soviets did on their collective farms.) The comment is so over the top that it really needs some back up info to be believable...
But I do agree that they way we're doing ethanol here in the US (from corn specifically) is really, really stupid. Not only from the inefficient energy equation of it--the amount of energy spent in producing it is only slightly higher than the energy yield--but also from the point that doesn't even begin to address the issue of the HUGE quantities of water needed in the production.
In the end it's nothing but a political ploy to get votes from ag states. So maybe it will be temporary. But why, oh, why do Republicans of all people think they ought to f*%# with the free market. I mean if the Democrats did it I'd say that's par for the course--that's what they do--but it makes me so mad to see people who are suppose to be fiscal conservatives doing this kind of crap.
J Swan
Feb. 27, 2008, 08:33 PM
Uh - the gubmint isn't requiring anyone to switch to corn. Farmers plant what they think they can sell. And they hope to God the crops don't fail. Men in Black are not forcing farmers to do anything - it's their land.
Jesus - where do you people come up with this crap?
Guess why farmers switched to corn. Because YOU - the citizens - want more fuel. Cheap. And we're all fed up with relying on oil from the Middle East. Fair enough.
Leave it to this BB to turn mere economic reality into farmer bashing.
Everyone wants more and more fuel. Ethanol is a fuel. "going green" has become popular so people, instead of conserving and using LESS fuel - just keep consuming and using a different fuel source. And always more. More more more. And there's the problem with any fuel source we use. We never factor in conservation; or learning to do without. We always want MORE.
Programs like CRP have performed a valuable public service - they keep farmers in business during lean times (and there are a LOT of lean times) and such programs help clean up our soils and water. Conservation programs aren't the bad guy - and though I love a good conspiracy story - neither is the government. We're the ones over consuming every energy source that becomes available.
clanter
Feb. 27, 2008, 09:07 PM
But why, oh, why do Republicans of all people think they ought to f*%# with the free market. I mean if the Democrats did it I'd say that's par for the course--that's what they do--but it makes me so mad to see people who are suppose to be fiscal conservatives doing this kind of crap.
ugh it was the Democrats...
The bill represents Democrats' first major effort to attack global warming and U.S. dependence on foreign oil since they won control of Congress a year ago
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put it: "Are we about the past or are we about the future?"
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/6/201227/682/175/418847
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (Pub.L. 110-140, originally named the CLEAN Energy Act of 2007) is an Act of Congress introduced in the House of Representatives by Democrats as part of their 100-Hour Plan for the actions they took during the first 100 business hours of the 110th Congress.[1] Sponsored by Representative Nick Rahall of West Virginia and cosponsored by 198 other representatives
SLW
Feb. 27, 2008, 09:08 PM
All right this is a little over the top. I do follow legislation, although not so much in the agriculture arena. Without some more info I really have to believe that it is the incentives (like subsidies) to produce corn for ethanol that might make some farmers feel they don't have much choice and still make economic sense of their crops yields. That's a lot different from "REQUIRING." (That's what the Communists/Soviets did on their collective farms.) The comment is so over the top that it really needs some back up info to be believable...
But I do agree that they way we're doing ethanol here in the US (from corn specifically) is really, really stupid. Not only from the inefficient energy equation of it--the amount of energy spent in producing it is only slightly higher than the energy yield--but also from the point that doesn't even begin to address the issue of the HUGE quantities of water needed in the production.
In the end it's nothing but a political ploy to get votes from ag states. So maybe it will be temporary. But why, oh, why do Republicans of all people think they ought to f*%# with the free market. I mean if the Democrats did it I'd say that's par for the course--that's what they do--but it makes me so mad to see people who are suppose to be fiscal conservatives doing this kind of crap.
google the Energy Policy Act of 2005. It is all right there. We're going green baby and on the way we're getting poorer.
clanter
Feb. 27, 2008, 09:15 PM
google the Energy Policy Act of 2005. It is all right there. We're going green baby and on the way we're getting poorer.
The Energy Policy Act of 2005 enacted renewable energy tax credits, but most expire at the end of 2008
merrygoround
Feb. 27, 2008, 09:54 PM
Ethanol is the biggest boondagle that has come down the road in a long time.
Unfortunately while we are waiting for them to figure out a better alternative, we'll be dealing with higher prices for the grain we do get.
this also affects our food.
Kristin J.
Feb. 27, 2008, 09:56 PM
I also work in a feed store in FL and like you said every week, every delivery, the feed goes up in price. Whole corn last year $4.50 a bag, this week it's up to $11.00 a bag!!! and what do I make a bag,....$1.18. That will not cover the pay check of the kid I have carring out the bag. What's worse is the people who can't afford the feed, even the cheep stuff, and the horses are suffering. I have customers giving away good horses because they can't feed them, but no ones taking them to a new home so the horses are loosing weight and looking poorer & poorer. Who's to blame? Not the farmers, trust me they are NOT getting rich. Not the feed stores, I wish I was getting rich. Not the owners of the horses, they are doing the best that they can and most are trying to get new homes for the horses they can't feed. All I'm seeing is good horses looking poorer.
I'm EBO
Feb. 28, 2008, 12:32 AM
Merrygoround said, "Ethanol is the biggest boondagle that has come down the road in a long time.
Unfortunately while we are waiting for them to figure out a better alternative, we'll be dealing with higher prices for the grain we do get.
this also affects our food."
If worse goes to worst, they can always ASK other countries, like Brazil, how they're making ethanol. Or they can quit farting around with making hybrid cars that get a whopping 25 mpg & take a look at some of the prototypes coming on line soon. Or they can can find someone to run USDA and DEPT of the Interior and, and, and, who actually sees the Big Picture, and keep W in Crawford, and send Cheney to wherever it happens to be dove season.
Please let us and our horses survive this administration! Amen.
Equilibrium
Feb. 28, 2008, 12:44 AM
My feed has gone up here 3 times since August. It is getting a bit pricey, but what can you do.
I really wish we could turn the muck heap into fuel!:) Never mind corn just figure out how we can make fuel from crap and we'd flying! Imagine people coming to you and taking it away and leaving a check.
Terri
Equine Obsession
Feb. 28, 2008, 01:18 AM
It's not just horse feed. By the end of this year, you probably won't even be able to buy a box of cereal for less than $5. Then you'll cringe when you purchase the milk to pour over it. Heaven forbid you want a few slices of toast to go with your cereal! Just look at all of the different foods in your kitchen panty that contain any type of grain...I'm sure their prices will be increasing steadily in the coming months as well. If only the farmers growing the crops were actually making a profit! Unfortunately, as in everything else, it's the middle man making all of the money. I keep reminding myself though, my horse IS a luxury item. I guess I'll just have to continue cutting back on the things I want, so that I can still afford to give my horse the life he's accustomed to having.
Alas, perhaps this is the government's response to the obesity epidemic. ;)
I'm glad my gelding doesn't need grain. He could use a little less nutritious hay! The OTTB on the other hand...The price increases are going to hit hard with that one.
Kolsch
Feb. 28, 2008, 05:43 AM
My feed has gone up here 3 times since August. It is getting a bit pricey, but what can you do.
I really wish we could turn the muck heap into fuel!:) Never mind corn just figure out how we can make fuel from crap and we'd flying! Imagine people coming to you and taking it away and leaving a check.
Terri
Cowpower. (not quite fuel for cars, but power for your home.)
http://www.cvps.com/cowpower/
Snow Princess
Feb. 28, 2008, 07:13 AM
Well if it makes you feel any better... i went to my feedstore in Brooklin Ontario and for one 50 pound bag of triple cleaned oats.. $19.95 The feed store lady is very nice and was sorry it had come to people pricing feed before they buy it. Earlier that day she had a man buy 2 bags and not believe they were $20 bucks each so she had to physically unload one of the bags out of his car.
My bag 50 pound bag of Oatena was $16.00
I guess this why we see disgusting things like this video of two horses left in a trailer to starve to death,
http://www.lasvegasnow.com/global/story.asp?s=1343812&displayHelp=true&displayHelp=true
county
Feb. 28, 2008, 07:22 AM
The gov. is not requiring us to grow corn for ethonal in any way and never has we can sell it to who ever we want. However if the Ethonal plants are the highest paying place for corn in this area you can bet the farm thats who I'm going to sell it to. Wheat, oats, corn, and sunflowers all have set record high future prices within the last 30 days. We contracted corn at $5.05 a few weeks ago and this week sunflowers hit $27. But the speculators and future markets control prices more then ethonal or any other thing does. With the high demand for pretty much all grains on both the domestic and world markets don't look for a small thing like horse feed to drop in price. Throw in another drought year in a large part of the U.S. and you'll really see prices shoot up!!
J Swan
Feb. 28, 2008, 08:57 AM
Merrygoround said,
If worse goes to worst, they can always ASK other countries, like Brazil, how they're making ethanol. Or they can quit farting around with making hybrid cars that get a whopping 25 mpg & take a look at some of the prototypes coming on line soon. Or they can can find someone to run USDA and DEPT of the Interior and, and, and, who actually sees the Big Picture, and keep W in Crawford, and send Cheney to wherever it happens to be dove season.
Please let us and our horses survive this administration! Amen.
Uh - it wasn't Big Oil that pushed ethanol. It was the Left. And I repeat what all of you already know; though you'll be loathe to admit it. No fuel - no matter how wonderful it is, will do any good unless we REDUCE consumption.
Whether its ethanol, switchgrass, or any other "alternative fuel". There are always consequences. The ethanol/corn problem is a perfect example. If we started growing switchgrass instead of corn - we'd have the same problem. Nuclear has consequences. Solar. Wind. They all have the same problem. No energy source can meet the ever increasing demand for power.
Now - if we were content to live in very small houses (under 1000sq ft), only have one vehicle for the whole family, have our own vegetable gardens, and reduce our population, then we'd not have these problems.
Unfortunately, it appears that no one is willing to compromise their "lifestyle", so they content themselves with buying "green" products shipped in from God knows where and really believe they're helping the environment.
Don't blame the farmers - they're just trying to get something to grow that they can sell. It's the public that creates the demand.
Tamara in TN
Feb. 28, 2008, 09:20 AM
I hadn't heard that they were requiring farmers to grow corn for ethanol,.
me either and I would certainly appreciate a cite from that poster...generally farmers don't take well to being "told" what to do....;)
Tamara in TN
Simkie
Feb. 28, 2008, 09:42 AM
me either and I would certainly appreciate a cite from that poster...generally farmers don't take well to being "told" what to do....;)
Tamara in TN
I can't imagine anyone telling Calvin what to do, Tamara! :eek: Actually, I might just pay money to see that happen :lol:
Chief2
Feb. 28, 2008, 09:50 AM
Dear hubby currently brokers freight for transporting food across the country. The biggest problems right now are the fuel costs, followed by the maintenance costs for keeping the trucks going. Keeping the fruit heated coming up north from Florida, keeping other foods frozen to the grocery stores, fuel, parts and labor for repairs and emergency services, towing, etc. If the company doesn't figure it all in before bidding on the load from the producing company, they eat all transportation costs that they incur over that bid amount. Add in the growing/farming related costs and issues, and you can see why it is costing so much everywhere.
The fed said yesterday that the fuel prices are not due for a large jump. He has been told differently by the petroleum people. Who knows who is right? DH just shakes his head and then looks at the ceiling. Brokering anything that trucks in on eighteen wheels right now is a tough business. Everyone wants the rock bottom price, and no one cares if the trucking company eats the fuel/maintenance costs or not. If they eat the costs too often, they either have no choice but to pass them on to the consumer, they lay off their already small office staff until it is on skeleton size and run heavier hours on them, or they go broke and close.
Trust me, we are not living an expensive lifestyle by any means here. We are hoping we can make it through and survive.
stabledesigner
Feb. 28, 2008, 09:51 AM
OK, OK, OK ..... REQUIERING was obviously too strong of a word. My regret. None the less, the government is passing legislation that affects our grain prices. For those that asked, this is the report I was given from my company. Take it for what its worth.
The below is quoted exactly as I recieved it.
PENNFIELD MARKETS AT THE MOMENT
01/31/08
Markets
The following projections are based on vendor basis quotes and CBOT markets:
Lancaster Martinsburg South Montrose
Month Corn SBM Corn SBM Corn SBM
Feb 5.51 363 5.29 368 5.51 375
Mar 5.51 363 5.29 368 5.51 375
Apr 5.70 372 5.50 372 5.75 380
May 5.70 372 5.50 372 5.75 380
Jun 5.84 375 5.74 375 5.89 383
Jul 5.84 375 5.74 375 5.89 383
Aug 5.84 363 5.74 363 5.89 371
Sep 5.84 363 5.74 363 5.89 371
Oct 5.85 346 5.75 346 5.90 354
Nov 5.85 345 5.75 345 5.90 353
Dec 5.93 345 5.83 345 5.98 353
Jan 5.93 349 5.83 349 5.98 353
General Comments
Jim Rogers who is one of the world’s largest investors and commodity traders is predicting the U.S. will see one of the worst recessions since the World War ll.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/news/international/okeefe_rogers.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008013103
The grain and soybean markets are being influenced by conflicting longer-term events. On one hand, fears of a recession are increasing with Jimmy Rogers predicting the worst economic recession since WW ll. At the same time, U.S. ethanol policies and the refusal of the USDA to allow the early release of CRP land is creating a severe shortage of acres available for row crop cultivation.
As a result of the Energy Legislation passed by Congress and signed by the president last month, the amount of corn used for ethanol production is expected to increase to 5.2 billion bushels in the next three years. With an average yield of 160 bushels/acre, this quantity will require the production from 32.5 million acres of corn. This is equal to 35% of the total acreage planted to corn last year!
A second bullish or at least supportive factor is the strong export demand for U.S. wheat and corn. U.S. export sales of high protein spring wheat already exceed USDA’s January forecast. Sales of wheat cannot continue at the current pace without wheat futures trading sharply higher. Importing countries need the wheat to feed their people.
The price rally in grains is driven by the lack of additional acres available for planting this spring. Farm prices have been kept relatively low for most of the last 50 years by excess production capacity i.e. the U.S. always had too many acres in row crop production which kept corn prices near the loan level. This situation changed when Congress enacted the first ethanol bill in August of 2005. The situation was made worse for livestock feeders by enactment of the second ethanol bill this past December.
The probability is fairly high that corn and soybean prices will trade higher between now and planting season to provide additional incentive for farmers to divert additional hay and pasture land into row crop production.
We get conflicting reports on profitability of Ethanol production, but all indications are that Ethanol production later this year is not profitable, with corn cost projections and ethanol pricing at their present levels. This inflated corn market could implode if we get into a serious recession that forces Congress to revisit energy legislation.
Oil World (a private analytical group based in Hamburg Germany) released a forecast yesterday for world soybean production to increase in 2008/09 to increase by 10.6%. The Oil World forecast is estimating U.S. soybean acreage this spring will increase by 7 million acres. For South America, Oil World is forecasting the area planted to soybeans in the fall of 2008 will increase 7.8%. Current record high prices for soybeans will result in an expansion in the area planted to soybeans in South America. The South American crop, which Oil World is referring to, however, will not be planted until Nov. 2008 and will not be harvested before March 2009. There are 12 to 14 months of weather ahead before the size of these South American crops will be known with certainty.
Man Financial reported that U.S. Energy Secretary Bodman announced Tuesday that the Bush Administration will “address” the issue of the 54-cent duty on imported ethanol in the 2009 federal budget. The obvious implication is that the Bush Administration will propose the duty on ethanol imports from Brazil be reduced or eliminated. This proposal could significantly reduce operating margins for U.S. ethanol producers, which could in turn reduce the amount of corn used for ethanol production. The problem, however, is that any changes to the import duties on ethanol must have the approval of both the House and Senate.
With current projected demand, the US needs to increase soybean plantings by at least 9 million acres. Otherwise the soybean market will be vulnerable to sharp price rallies throughout the summer.
End quote.
Hope this clarifies.
Hony
Feb. 28, 2008, 09:52 AM
Sorry guys, I don't feel bad for you ;) I pay $26 a bag and that is the recently reduced price. It used to be $29 :eek:
CoolMeadows
Feb. 28, 2008, 10:04 AM
Why doesn't this country utilize and upgrade its rail system, for both commercial and passenger transport?
Benson
Feb. 28, 2008, 12:24 PM
Uh - it wasn't Big Oil that pushed ethanol. It was the Left. And I repeat what all of you already know; though you'll be loathe to admit it. No fuel - no matter how wonderful it is, will do any good unless we REDUCE consumption.
Whether its ethanol, switchgrass, or any other "alternative fuel". There are always consequences. The ethanol/corn problem is a perfect example. If we started growing switchgrass instead of corn - we'd have the same problem. Nuclear has consequences. Solar. Wind. They all have the same problem. No energy source can meet the ever increasing demand for power.
Now - if we were content to live in very small houses (under 1000sq ft), only have one vehicle for the whole family, have our own vegetable gardens, and reduce our population, then we'd not have these problems.
Unfortunately, it appears that no one is willing to compromise their "lifestyle", so they content themselves with buying "green" products shipped in from God knows where and really believe they're helping the environment.
Don't blame the farmers - they're just trying to get something to grow that they can sell. It's the public that creates the demand.
Thank you, J Swan. My sentiments exactly.
county
Feb. 28, 2008, 12:28 PM
I have no problems with higher hay and grain prices especially if they stay ahead more then increased production costs. Anyone here complain when they get a raise in pay?
Tamara in TN
Feb. 28, 2008, 12:52 PM
I can't imagine anyone telling Calvin what to do, Tamara! :eek: Actually, I might just pay money to see that happen :lol:
it's not pretty when they try :)
Tamara in TN
J Swan
Feb. 28, 2008, 12:54 PM
I have no problems with higher hay and grain prices especially if they stay ahead more then increased production costs. Anyone here complain when they get a raise in pay?
Perhaps some people can't grasp the fact that farming is not charitable work. It's a business; like any other.
stabledesigner - thank you for your clarification.
county
Feb. 28, 2008, 01:01 PM
I think there are some who feel farmers should grow crops then sell cheap to them so they can feed their horse without spending much. I've had people tell me " well farmers are just trying to get as much for their hay as they can".
Ah ya and thats bad because? The guy down the road is a diasel mechanic. Guess what/ Hes trying to get as much pay as he can also.
Calvincrowe
Feb. 28, 2008, 01:15 PM
I have to think, though, that somewhere, the MIDDLEMAN is making money on feed/hay/bread/fuel etc. I appreciate the American farmer "making hay while the sun shines" if you'll pardon the pun, now that profits are skyrocketing--who wouldn't plant what is making the big bucks? But, seriously, the increases are coming so rapidly--and not just at the feed store.
Gas/Petroleum prices are also effected by the fact the oil is bought and sold using the American dollar--and it is WEAK out there in the world, thus making gas more expensive. The mortgage mess is not helping, our economy is weakening, despite everyone's "rose tinted glasses" approach.
I am hurting financially. Strategy is now $15/bag. September, it was $11. Triple 16 fertilizer has nearly doubled in price since last February. Where will it end? Who knows, but one thing is: prices probably won't drop when this "economic downturn" comes to an end...
county
Feb. 28, 2008, 01:21 PM
Oh I think in the future grain prices at least will drop, corn has been over $5 before and dropped below $2. Ag commotities have always been very up and down over the years.
J Swan
Feb. 28, 2008, 01:26 PM
I can't speak for the entire country - but farmers around here are barely making ends meet. The drought affected them all, many wells went dry, and the increased cost of feed meant they were spending more on feeding their own livestock. With the cost of hay and feed last fall/early winter - many took their livestock to auction early and barely made a penny. But they couldn't afford to feed them through the winter.
I fully appreciate, and empathize, with horse owners who are feeling the pinch of higher feed prices. But it pales in comparison to what farmers are having to pay to even get seed in the ground; or feed their own dairy or meat animals. That cost is simply going to be passed on to the consumer. For horse owner's it's their hobby that is affected. With farmers - it's their livelihood and ability to put food on the table.
Nobody owes us cheap food and horse feed. Americans still pay practically nothing for food - compared to the rest of the world. I don't know what to say except tighten your belts and make economies in your lifestyle. This country lives pretty high on the hog; I'm not sure how long that can be sustained. Perhaps we're seeing evidence that it can't be. :confused:
county
Feb. 28, 2008, 01:30 PM
Truth be told about 80% of horses that are fed grain don't even need it for their health. Actually an awful lot of them would be ibn better health if they didn't get it. Its just as abusive to keep a horse fat as it is to keep it thin.
Tory Relic
Feb. 28, 2008, 01:32 PM
I think there are some who feel farmers should grow crops then sell cheap to them so they can feed their horse without spending much. I've had people tell me " well farmers are just trying to get as much for their hay as they can".
Ah ya and thats bad because? The guy down the road is a diasel mechanic. Guess what/ Hes trying to get as much pay as he can also.
Precisely. Farming is a FOR PROFIT business. They want a paycheck, too.
It's free enterprise. They have a right to charge what the market will bear, and if the country is to go green, we all need to make sacrifices. We are not entitled to keep animals whose care we can't afford.
Have I felt the bite? Sure, but I feel it everywhere, not just in horse related expenses.
BeastieSlave
Feb. 28, 2008, 02:07 PM
Truth be told about 80% of horses that are fed grain don't even need it for their health. Actually an awful lot of them would be ibn better health if they didn't get it. Its just as abusive to keep a horse fat as it is to keep it thin.
I bet 80% is kind of high....
I would love to not have to feed my beasties any grain!! Unfortunately, I don't have the acreage that would be required to support them and (in case you haven't heard) we're having a drought down here, so the pastures I do have aren't doing as well as I would like, and hay is pretty dear too. I'm thrilled to be able to cut back on grain and eliminate hay during the warmer months.
I have no problems with higher hay and grain prices especially if they stay ahead more then increased production costs. Anyone here complain when they get a raise in pay?
That might be part of the problem - most of us don't raise our own hay/grain and we aren't getting a raise in pay! We're just getting a raise in costs (for everything, not just feed). I don't mind famers and feed store owners making money. They are business people and provide goods and services that I am happy to have.
I posted because I thought this thread was to vent. I came here to whine about how much my costs have risen. I'm not interested in placing 'blame' or pointing fingers. That doesn't help my day-to-day life and it certainly doesn't change the costs of anything.
cholmberg
Feb. 28, 2008, 02:58 PM
My horses don't eat a great deal, but I do know I will not take any more than I already have (two). If the -perfect- horse for my daughter fell into my lap, I'd take it. .. but that would be it. I've finally found feed happiness with Nutrena Safe-Choice, and right now it's $12.10/bag. Ultium is about $18/bag, Strategy was about $14/bag when I last checked. So not nearly as bad as some areas, but they do keep going up, and this is a poor area. Hay is about $7+ per 60lb bale for decent bermuda, bahia is a little cheaper. Where I board, so many owners feed cheap crap animal feed and not enough of that and their horses show it. The BO took possession of two horses that the owners just stopped showing up. . wouldn't feed or care for their horses (self care place). I can't help but wonder what's going to happen when the price of feed continues to rise, with the market so depressed it's not like they can just sell them, there's no rescues around here except the animal shelter, and they can only take a certain number. The majority of horses around here are just pleasure horses, lots of grade and QH. . . even giving them away would be hard with the way feed costs are rising.
The price of bread, milk. . everything has soared. We're going to be planting a garden to help with herbs and produce. I will compost manure to spread to help reduce fertilizer costs. I love having chickens for eggs and pest control, etc.
But I'll also say, maybe the increased prices will help reduce some of the hideous waste I see everyday. So much food just thrown away, so many shiny new gaz guzzler vehicles on the road with one person in them, just so much excess. I do think with the emerging competition of other nations for resources, that it cannot be sustained indefinitely.
Baroque-n-Dreams
Feb. 28, 2008, 03:03 PM
TC Senior is $16.75 for me now. It floors me that some people are still paying less than $15 for a bag of grain.
Dang.....I pay $20.25 for TC Senior.....and the same for TC Complete.
50 lb bag of Timothy pellets is currently at $12.25, and had a $2 jump in the last 2 months.
80 lb bag of Sacate Bermuda Blend is $12.75 after a recent hike of $.050 per bag.
Bermuda bales (110 lb.) have been going up $.025 every other week.
I haven't seen a feed order bill that didn't have a comma in it in a few months.
Orchard is up at $24 a bale, so I am happier then a clam that we don't feed that to the horses while we are going through approx. 4 bales a day.
Tiki
Feb. 28, 2008, 03:52 PM
Pretty soon we'll have to import food for ourselves, the way we now import steel. We used to be the leading producers of steel and lost that. We used to be (maybe still are) the leading producers of food. Now with the switch to corn for ethanol for fuel we'll have to import feed AND food.
Talk about a viscious cycle!
Auventera Two
Feb. 28, 2008, 04:30 PM
What's really burning my biscuits is all these women who are my age and "starting their families." Many of them are on their 3rd kid. I have two friends, one with FIVE chidlren, the other with FOUR. Fercripesake- what are you - rats? Ugh, I can't stand it. People think it's their personal duty to overpopulate the earth. Our population is killing us. Everyone of those kids is going to have it's own car in a few years.
I talked to the feed lady last week and Nutrena XTN is up to nearly $20 a bag. Thankfully I don't feed it all the time. I feed BOSS and that's around $18 per 50 lbs. I remember a couple of years ago when it was about $8. At least beet pulp is still cheap. That's what I feed the most of.
Auventera Two
Feb. 28, 2008, 04:35 PM
I love having chickens for eggs and pest control, etc.
Ditto that! I have 4 hens and they produce about 4 eggs a day. Ocassionally somebody gets lazy. They eat all the beet pulp and grain scraps the horses dribble out of buckets, alfalfa leaves, and they clean up the waste under the bird feeders. They relish a good spider or horse fly, and keep the barn almost totally void of horse crazy insects. With eggs at about $3 a dozen, I can't help but smile when I grab my eggs every night and see all that dribbled out feed being vacuumed up! I spend much less on fly spray and nothing on chemicals inside the barn. In the summer they're out there on the manure pile just going crazy on flies and their eggs.
Kolsch
Feb. 28, 2008, 06:24 PM
Trip to the feed store today...
$12.00 Poulin Revolution
$12.40 Nutrena Vitality 12%
I'm EBO
Feb. 28, 2008, 06:26 PM
Tiki--I believe we are still producing steel, in a way. The Chinese bought the production sources, and I think they're paying American/Canadian workers to run the mills.
We're also already importing food--much of it from you-know-where. :uhoh:
But, not to worry. The rest of the world already doesn't accept much of the food we produce (thanks to Big Ag's methods), so we can still eat those rejects. And, contrary to the economic news you're recently read, W said today that we're not headed for a recession. And the Pentegon wants another $12 billion for the next couple of months.
If I didn't live here, I'd be laughing my head off, as I'm sure our enemies are doing right now.
Elmstead
Feb. 28, 2008, 06:36 PM
Oh, the feed prices have gotten so depressing....$20 for a bag of Ultium. :(
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